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SpaceX’s crewed Dragon launch debut likely to slip into 2020 as NASA pursues “realistic” dates

SpaceX's first flightworthy Crew Dragon spacecraft rolls out to Pad 39A atop Falcon 9 B1051 on Feb 28, ready for its inaugural trip to low Earth orbit. (SpaceX)

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In a recent blog post, NASA made it clear that changes happening to leadership within the agency – specifically within the Human Exploration and Operations Directorate – are impacting the timelines to return astronauts to the International Space Station(ISS) from US soil. Agency conflicts are just the latest of several setbacks that have impacted the schedule of SpaceX’s crewed Crew Dragon launch debut.

Initially, the SpaceX Demo-2 mission set to carry NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the ISS was slated to occur in the summer of 2019. That demonstration flight has since dropped off of the NASA launches and landings schedule, at least through October. SpaceX is now targeting a Demo-2 launch no earlier than December 2019 but an array of critical milestones must be completed to achieve that goal and both SpaceX and NASA have been keen to express that a crewed Crew Dragon launch in 2019 is a huge stretch.

NASA astronauts Bob Behnken (left) and Doug Hurley (right), are assigned to fly on Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 test flight and will thus become the first humans to fly in a SpaceX spacecraft. (NASA)

According to the recent blog post, “NASA Administrator (Jim Bridenstine) has directed all programs in the Human Exploration and Operations Directorate to reexamine flight dates once new leadership is in place to deliver realistic schedule plans.” It is very likely that these new schedule plans will push the Demo-2 launch target into 2020.

Another roadblock that affects the timeline is the fact that SpaceX has yet to conduct an in-flight abort (IFA) test of the Crew Dragon capsule, meant to demonstrate the ability of the capsule’s SuperDraco thruster abort system to safely return crewmembers back to Earth in the event of an in-flight failure. SpaceX’s IFA has been delayed by multiple months after a catastrophic anomaly during an attempted April 2019 static fire test of the abort system resulted in the complete loss of the Crew Dragon capsule (C201), originally assigned to support the IFA. Although the capsule was destroyed, valuable lessons were learned about the pressurization and propulsion systems of Crew Dragon, particular “the flammability of the check valve’s titanium internal components” according to a July 15th statement released by SpaceX.

SpaceX’s first spaceworthy Crew Dragon capsule seen prior to its first Falcon 9-integrated static fire and a post-recovery test fire three months later. (SpaceX)

As a result of the loss of C201, the in-flight abort test must now use the Crew Dragon capsule (C205) originally intended for the Demo-2 to transport Behnken and Hurley to the ISS. The findings from the anomaly investigation identified changes to the SuperDraco thruster abort system that would need to be made to all capsules currently in production prior to any future flights. SpaceX states that “thorough testing and analysis of these mitigations has already begun in close coordination with NASA, and will be completed well in advance of future flights.”

Pending SpaceX’s modification of Dragon 2 hardware and NASA’s approval, a new launch date for the in-flight abort test could be announced as early as August. According to SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk, Falcon 9 Block 5 booster B1048.3 – the second booster to successfully complete three launches and landings – will likely support Crew Dragon’s in-flight abort test, although there have been indications from NASASpaceflight.com that B1046.3 is also a candidate.

Step by step

Following a successful in-flight abort test and recovery of the Crew Dragon capsule, a joint flight readiness review will be conducted by SpaceX, NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Directorate (HEOD), the Commercial Crew Program (CCP), and the International Space Station Program to settle on a launch date for Demo-2. This meeting will ensure that all parties are well-versed in the procedures required to support crewed spaceflight missions from US soil after an almost decade-long hiatus.

Another anticipated safety procedure that is assumed to be tested prior to the designation of a crewed flight date is a full rehearsal of emergency escape procedures at Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A), located at Kennedy Space Center, Florida. A joint version of this test was recently completed by NASA, Boeing, and United Launch Alliance in anticipation of crewed flights launching from Space Launch Complex 41 on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. As an escape system has not been necessary at LC-39A since the retirement of the Shuttle program, SpaceX and NASA may participate in a similar demonstration utilizing a recently installed zip-line egress system on the Fixed Service Structure of LC-39A.

Newly installed egress zip lines are observed leading away from the redesigned Fixed Service Structure during Apollo 11 50th Anniversary Celebrations at Pad 39A. (NASA)

Although there is some time remaining in the year for SpaceX and NASA to meet all pre-flight objectives, it seems more likely that a crewed SpaceX demonstration mission to the ISS will occur sometime in 2020. As NASA said “we are testing, learning and incorporating changes to improve the design and operation of these next-generation human space transportation systems. As a result, our providers have improved the safety of these systems, and the effect of these changes have impacted schedules.”

Finally, according to recent reports from a handful of Russian media outlets, Crew Dragon’s inaugural crewed launch is believed to be scheduled for absolutely no earlier than (NET) mid-December 2019, although all signs point to that date being purely for planning purposes. In short, Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 mission is all but guaranteed to slip into 2020, but those delays will (hopefully) result in a significantly safer and more reliable spacecraft.

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SpaceX to expand Central Texas facility with $8M Bastrop project

Bastrop is already the site of several Elon Musk-led ventures.

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX is set to expand its presence in Central Texas with an $8 million project to enlarge its Bastrop facility, as per state filings. 

The 80,000-square-foot addition, which is scheduled to begin construction on September 24 and wrap in early January 2026, was registered with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation and initially reported by My San Antonio

New investment

Bastrop is already the site of several Elon Musk-led ventures. The upcoming expansion will extend SpaceX’s office at 858 FM 1209, near Starlink’s operations and The Boring Company’s facilities. Just down the road, X is housed in the Hyperloop Plaza at 865 FM 1209.

SpaceX’s expansion reflects a steady buildup of resources in Bastrop since the private space firm established its presence in the area. The addition was praised by Tesla Governor Greg Abbott, who wrote on X that the expansion will “bring more jobs, innovations and will strengthen Starlink’s impact worldwide.” 

State support

In March, Gov. Greg Abbott announced a $17.3 million state grant to SpaceX for an “expansion of their semiconductor research and development (R&D) and advanced packaging facility in Bastrop.” The project is expected to create more than 400 new jobs and generate over $280 million in capital investment.

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Following the grant award, the Texas Governor also noted that SpaceX’s facility would be growing by 1 million square feet across three years to boost its Starlink program. SpaceX’s Starlink division is among the company’s fastest-growing segments, with the satellite internet system connecting over 6 million users and counting worldwide. 

Recent reports have also indicated that Starlink has struck a deal with EchoStar to acquire 50 MHz of exclusive S-band spectrum in the United States and global Mobile Satellite Service (MSS) licenses. This should pave the way for Starlink to provide 5G coverage worldwide, even in remote areas. 

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Starlink’s EchoStar spectrum deal could bring 5G coverage anywhere

The agreement strengthens Starlink’s ability to expand its mobile coverage worldwide.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX has struck a deal with EchoStar to acquire 50 MHz of exclusive S-band spectrum in the United States and global Mobile Satellite Service (MSS) licenses, paving the way for its next-generation Starlink Direct to Cell constellation. 

The agreement strengthens Starlink’s ability to expand its mobile coverage worldwide. With the upgraded system, SpaceX aims to deliver full 5G connectivity to unmodified cell phones and eliminate mobile dead zones worldwide.

Expanding mobile coverage

Starlink’s Direct to Cell service was first launched in early 2024 with satellites designed to connect directly to standard LTE mobile devices. Within days of deployment, engineers demonstrated texting from unmodified phones, followed by video calling. Over the past 18 months, SpaceX has grown the system to more than 600 satellites, which now offer service across five continents. Today, Starlink Direct to Cell is considered the largest 4G coverage provider worldwide, connecting over 6 million users and counting, according to SpaceX in a post.

The constellation integrates with Starlink’s broader fleet of 8,000 satellites via a laser mesh network. Operating at 360 kilometers (224 miles) above Earth, the satellites connect directly to devices without hardware or firmware modifications. The system is already supporting messaging, video calls, navigation, social media apps, and IoT connectivity in remote areas.

Next-generation system

Through its new EchoStar spectrum acquisition, SpaceX plans to develop a second-generation constellation with far greater capacity. The upgraded satellites will leverage SpaceX-designed silicon and advanced phased array antennas to increase throughput by 20x per satellite and increase total system capacity by more than 100x. These enhancements are expected to support full 5G cellular connectivity in remote areas, with performance comparable to terrestrial LTE networks.

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Partnerships with major mobile carriers remain central to Starlink’s expansion. Operators including T-Mobile in the United States, Rogers in Canada, KDDI in Japan, and Kyivstar in Ukraine are integrating Direct to Cell services for coverage in rural areas and during emergencies. The service has already provided critical communication during hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, enabling millions of SMS messages and emergency alerts to be delivered when ground networks were unavailable.

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SpaceX Starship launches face pushback in Florida over noise, flights—and nudists

SpaceX is seeking permission to fly its fully reusable Starship system from Launch Complex 39A.

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Credit: SpaceX

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has wrapped up a series of public hearings on SpaceX’s proposal to launch its Super Heavy Starship rocket from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC). 

The sessions, held both in-person and online, form part of the draft environmental impact statement (EIS) review that will determine whether SpaceX would be cleared to conduct Starship launches and landings from Florida’s Space Coast.

FAA review and Starship launch plans

According to the FAA’s draft EIS, SpaceX seeks permission to fly its fully reusable Starship system from Launch Complex 39A, where construction of a dedicated tower and infrastructure has already begun. Proposed operations could involve landings at KSC or droneships positioned across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The FAA emphasized that final approval is not guaranteed with the completion of the EIS, as safety and financial requirements must still be met, as noted in a Space.com report.

Starship’s larger scale compared to Falcon 9 means expanded exclusion zones for air, sea, and beach access. The analysis also projected more than 60 annual closures of Playalinda Beach, alongside potential flight delays across Florida airports lasting 40 minutes to two hours. Port Canaveral would also be affected by maritime restrictions.

Local concerns

Public comments reflected a mix of optimism and unease. Aviation officials, such as Tampa International Airport COO John Tiliacos, warned of significant disruption to commercial flights. “There is the potential that there’s going to be significant impact to commercial aviation and the traveling public. That’s something that certainly the FAA needs to give consideration to and, frankly, come up with a plan to mitigate,” he stated. 

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Others raised health concerns, noting that chronic sleep disruption from launch noise could impact veterans and trauma survivors. Robyn Memphis, a neuroscience and psychology graduate student, stated that sleep disruptions from launch noise and sonic booms could carry lasting effects. “Chronic sleep disruption is not just inconvenient. This is directly linked to depression, anxiety… cardiovascular disease, even suicide risk. And being in Florida, we have many veterans and trauma survivors in the community,” she said.

Nudist protests and responses

Erich Schuttauf, the executive director of the American Association for Nude Recreation, also argued that places like Playalinda Beach, a nudist beach, are crucial for people who travel to places where public nudity is legal. His sentiments were echoed by fellow nudist Sue Stevens, who noted that “It’s probably a quarter million people that travel and think like I do, who look for destinations that are beautiful and surrounded by like-minded people.”

Photographer Max West, who plans to move to Florida to photograph Starship, noted that the spacecraft presents a notable step forward for humanity. And while its impact to communities is not marginal, the progress it offers is well worth it. “I’m not going to say that there is zero environmental impact there,” he said, though he also stated that there has to be some “little sacrifices along the way. “The turtles and the nudists will have to migrate. That’s the cost that you have to pay for this incredible stuff that’s happening.”

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