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SpaceX's next Crew Dragon launch is delayed but that's actually good news

Crew Dragon will soon attempt to use its SuperDraco thrusters to escape from a Falcon 9 rocket traveling twice the speed of sound. (SpaceX)

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6 years ago

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NASA says that SpaceX’s next big Crew Dragon flight test has slipped a bit further into 2020, a counterintuitively positive sign that the human-rated spacecraft’s next launch is firmly scheduled for the first month of the next decade.

Known as Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort (IFA) test, SpaceX opted to include the mission in its Commercial Crew contract, a decision NASA chose to leave up to its providers. Boeing, for example, chose not to perform a real-world in-flight abort test of its Starliner spacecraft, instead relying on a pad abort test and digital modeling to determine the spacecraft’s capabilities. NASA allowed this flexibility because it believes – at least theoretically – that it should be possible to determine whether a spacecraft can perform the most challenging abort scenarios without actually doing full-fidelity flight tests.

Given that NASA chose to perform an extremely expensive full-fidelity in-flight abort test with its own Orion spacecraft just a few months ago, one can’t exactly say that the space agency has chosen to reap what it’s sown, but with any luck, the Starliner spacecraft will never have to perform such an abort and find out how close Boeing’s modeling is to reality.

It’s also worth noting that despite the fact SpaceX elected to perform an extra abort test that will likely destroy an entire Falcon 9 rocket, Crew Dragon development will cost NASA $2 billion (40%) less than Starliner, while each operational Crew Dragon launch will also cost some $250 million (39%) less than a comparable Starliner launch.

As of December 18th, NASA says that SpaceX’s In-Flight Abort (IFA) test has slipped a week from January 4th to January 11th, 2020. Counterintuitively, that delay is actually an extremely encouraging sign that Crew Dragon’s next launch is quite firmly set for the first month of 2020. For reference, as NASA and SpaceX approached Crew Dragon’s Demo-1 orbital launch debut earlier this year, the mission was initially set for January 17th. Around three weeks later, NASA announced that Demo-1 had slipped to no earlier than (NET) “February”. Four weeks after that delay, NASA once again announced another delay to March 2nd, which would turn out to be the day that Crew Dragon really did reach orbit for the first time.

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On March 2nd, Crew Dragon lifted off atop Falcon 9 during DM-1, the spacecraft’s uncrewed orbital launch debut. (NASA)

On the other hand, IFA – Crew Dragon’s second launch – had its first firm launch date (January 4th) announced by NASA on December 6th, 2019. Less than two weeks later, NASA says that the launch date has slipped by exactly one week to January 11th, less than four weeks from today. It’s entirely possible that SpaceX’s IFA test will slip further into 2020 in the coming weeks, but compared to Crew Dragon’s Demo-1 mission, both NASA and SpaceX appear to be far more confident in the schedule for Crew Dragon’s second launch.

Regardless of when exactly it lifts off, Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort is going to be an extremely challenging test for the spacecraft. Designed to simulate a near-worst-case abort scenario during launch, SpaceX will essentially trick Dragon into believing that Falcon 9 has failed around a minute and a half after launch. At that point, the rocket and spacecraft will be traveling as fast as Mach 2.5 (860 m/s, 1900 mph) and experiencing what is known as Max Q, the point of peak aerodynamic stress (referring to heating, buffeting, pressure, and more).

At that exact point, Crew Dragon capsule C205 will ignite all eight of its SuperDraco abort engines, almost instantaneously producing 130,000 lbf (570 kN) of thrust to send the spacecraft almost a kilometer (0.5 mi) away from Falcon 9 in just a few seconds. If Crew Dragon survives the ordeal, it will quickly detach its trunk section, flip around to face its heat shield towards the ground, and ultimately deploy parachutes before gently landing in the Atlantic Ocean.

Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort test should look almost identical to this, except the fixed launch pad will be replaced by a Falcon 9 rocket traveling roughly twice the speed of sound.

SpaceX plans to recover and reuse the otherwise orbit-worthy capsule on a future mission, likely one of the company’s upcoming CRS2 space station resupply launches. Finally, if everything goes exactly as planned during the In-Flight Abort test and both NASA and SpaceX see no issues with the flown hardware or data the test produces, Crew Dragon Demo-2 – the spacecraft’s first astronaut launch – could potentially be ready for flight as early as February or March 2020.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Why Tesla’s Q3 could be one of its biggest quarters in history

Tesla could stand to benefit from the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit at the end of Q3.

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3 hours ago

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July 3, 2025

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten off to a slow start in 2025, as the first half of the year has not been one to remember from a delivery perspective.

However, Q3 could end up being one of the best the company has had in history, with the United States potentially being a major contributor to what might reverse a slow start to the year.

Earlier today, the United States’ House of Representatives officially passed President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” after it made its way through the Senate earlier this week. The bill will head to President Trump, as he looks to sign it before his July 4 deadline.

The Bill will effectively bring closure to the $7,500 EV tax credit, which will end on September 30, 2025. This means, over the next three months in the United States, those who are looking to buy an EV will have their last chance to take advantage of the credit. EVs will then be, for most people, $7,500 more expensive, in essence.

The tax credit is available to any single filer who makes under $150,000 per year, $225,000 a year to a head of household, and $300,000 to couples filing jointly.

Ending the tax credit was expected with the Trump administration, as his policies have leaned significantly toward reliance on fossil fuels, ending what he calls an “EV mandate.” He has used this phrase several times in disagreements with Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

Nevertheless, those who have been on the fence about buying a Tesla, or any EV, for that matter, will have some decisions to make in the next three months. While all companies will stand to benefit from this time crunch, Tesla could be the true winner because of its sheer volume.

If things are done correctly, meaning if Tesla can also offer incentives like 0% APR, special pricing on leasing or financing, or other advantages (like free Red, White, and Blue for a short period of time in celebration of Independence Day), it could see some real volume in sales this quarter.

Tesla is just a shade under 721,000 deliveries for the year, so it’s on pace for roughly 1.4 million for 2025. This would be a decrease from the 1.8 million cars it delivered in each of the last two years. Traditionally, the second half of the year has produced Tesla’s strongest quarters. Its top three quarters in terms of deliveries are Q4 2024 with 495,570 vehicles, Q4 2023 with 484,507 vehicles, and Q3 2024 with 462,890 vehicles.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving testing continues European expansion: here’s where

Tesla has launched Full Self-Driving testing in a fifth European country ahead of its launch.

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7 hours ago

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July 3, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving is being tested in several countries across Europe as the company prepares to launch its driver assistance suite on the continent.

The company is still working through the regulatory hurdles with the European Union. They are plentiful and difficult to navigate, but Tesla is still making progress as its testing of FSD continues to expand.

Today, it officially began testing in a new country, as more regions open their doors to Tesla. Many owners and potential customers in Europe are awaiting its launch.

On Thursday, Tesla officially confirmed that Full Self-Driving testing is underway in Spain, as the company shared an extensive video of a trip through the streets of Madrid:

The launch of Full Self-Driving testing in Spain marks the fifth country in which Tesla has started assessing the suite’s performance in the European market.

Across the past several months, Tesla has been expanding the scope of countries where Full Self-Driving is being tested. It has already made it to Italy, France, the Netherlands, and Germany previously.

Tesla has already filed applications to have Full Self-Driving (Supervised) launched across the European Union, but CEO Elon Musk has indicated that this particular step has been the delay in the official launch of the suite thus far.

In mid-June, Musk revealed the frustrations Tesla has felt during its efforts to launch its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) suite in Europe, stating that the holdup can be attributed to authorities in various countries, as well as the EU as a whole:

Tesla Full Self-Driving’s European launch frustrations revealed by Elon Musk

“Waiting for Dutch authorities and then the EU to approve. Very frustrating and hurts the safety of people in Europe, as driving with advanced Autopilot on results in four times fewer injuries! Please ask your governing authorities to accelerate making Tesla safer in Europe.”

Tesla said last year that it planned to launch Full Self-Driving in Europe in 2025.

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xAI’s Memphis data center receives air permit despite community criticism

xAI welcomed the development in a post on its official xAI Memphis account on X.

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9 hours ago

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July 3, 2025

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Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI has secured an air permit from Memphis health officials for its data center project, despite critics’ opposition and pending legal action. The Shelby County Health Department approved the permit this week, allowing xAI to operate 15 mobile gas turbines at its facility.

Air permit granted

The air permit comes after months of protests from Memphis residents and environmental justice advocates, who alleged that xAI violated the Clean Air Act by operating gas turbines without prior approval, as per a report from WIRED. 

The Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC) and the NAACP has claimed that xAI installed dozens of gas turbines at its new data campus without acquiring the mandatory Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) permit required for large-scale emission sources.

Local officials previously stated the turbines were considered “temporary” and thus not subject to stricter permitting. xAI applied for an air permit in January 2025, and in June, Memphis Mayor Paul Young acknowledged that the company was operating 21 turbines. SELC, however, has claimed that aerial footage shows the number may be as high as 35.

Critics are not giving up

Civil rights groups have stated that they intend to move forward with legal action. “xAI’s decision to install and operate dozens of polluting gas turbines without any permits or public oversight is a clear violation of the Clean Air Act,” said Patrick Anderson, senior attorney at SELC. 

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“Over the last year, these turbines have pumped out pollution that threatens the health of Memphis families. This notice paves the way for a lawsuit that can hold xAI accountable for its unlawful refusal to get permits for its gas turbines,” he added.

Sharon Wilson, a certified optical gas imaging thermographer, also described the emissions cloud in Memphis as notable. “I expected to see the typical power plant type of pollution that I see. What I saw was way worse than what I expected,” she said.

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