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SpaceX space tourism ambitions made real with Crew Dragon's first private contract
Axiom Space has announced its first contract with SpaceX, revealing plans to launch three tourists to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Crew Dragon spacecraft as early as 2021
Building off of the extraordinary success of the privately-developed Cargo Dragon spacecraft, set to be retired perhaps just a month or so from now, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft was designed almost from scratch to safely launch humans into space. While there are few guarantees in human spaceflight, SpaceX appears to be well on track towards its inaugural astronaut launch, and Crew Dragon is scheduled to support that mission – known as Demo-2 – as early as next month. If Demo-2 is successful and NASA signs off on Crew Dragon’s operational readiness, it’s starting to look like the spacecraft might have considerable demand even outside the space agency that funded its development.
Less than three weeks after SpaceX and Space Adventures revealed tentative plans to launch space tourists on a record-breaking Crew Dragon flight, this latest news seemingly implies that a separate company has gone a step further, putting real money down on its own space tourism launch contract. For SpaceX, this is now the second time in less than a month that the Crew Dragon spacecraft has received serious space tourism-related interest. The market, in other words, could be substantially larger than one might initially imagine.
First announced on February 18th, Space Adventures – a private firm that has been working in the space tourism business for more than two decades – and SpaceX revealed that they’d signed an agreement to potentially support a unique opportunity for private astronauts. Likely completed without any exchange of funds, the joint agreement means that Space Adventures can now begin to seriously pursue customers for a Crew Dragon mission that could reach an altitude that only a handful of NASA Apollo and Gemini astronauts have gone beyond.
As such, there is technically no guarantee that the Space Adventures-SpaceX agreement will translate into any actual Crew Dragon or Falcon 9 contracts, although there is certainly a chance. The tourism company did successfully arrange eight orbital launches and space station visits for seven customers in the 2000s but has been relatively inactive in the decade since then.
Axiom Space, an unrelated venture, is also seriously interested in space tourism but is instead focused on the far more arduous task of building its own space station. Thanks to a recent agreement with NASA, potentially translating to $140M contract to build its first custom space station module, it appears to be increasingly likely that Axiom is not simply smoke and mirrors – depressingly common in space tourism industry.
Intriguingly, the contract Axiom announced with SpaceX and Crew Dragon appears to be entirely unrelated to the company’s plans to build its own space station modules. Instead, the contract would see SpaceX train and launch an Axiom ‘commander’ and three private passengers to the existing ISS for more than a week before returning them safely to Earth. Perhaps more impressive is the schedule: Axiom wants SpaceX to launch its first space tourism mission as early as the second half of 2021 – potentially less than a year and a half from now.
Regardless, if this contract does result in Crew Dragon’s first dedicated space tourism launch and Axiom’s customers are satisfied, it’s safe to say that SpaceX will be the first to receive a call if or when Axiom needs more orbital taxi services or rockets to launch its space station modules in the mid-2020s.
If its prices are notably better than what past tourism ventures have been able to offer, SpaceX might even be able to expand the market for private (orbital) human spaceflight, creating an entirely new niche for Crew Dragon. Given that NASA’s Commercial Crew Program contract anticipates requiring no more than an average of two dedicated Crew Dragon astronauts launches per year, it would not take much at all for SpaceX to double the spacecraft’s annual flight rate with the help of orbital tourism.
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Tesla Cybercab units finally got a definitive date for when they will be able to be purchased by consumers, ending speculation regarding whether the fully autonomous vehicle would be available in the near term.
During Tesla’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call on October 21, Vice President of Engineering Lars Moravy said the company is aiming to begin delivering its purpose-built Cybercab robotaxi to customers before year-end.
🚨 In short, Cybercabs are slated to go to customers by end of the year. All units are going into Robotaxi fleet currently, per @larsmoravy
Cybercab will be “transport-as-a-service,” but vast majority of Cybercab will be “Tesla-owned,” @elonmusk says https://t.co/R8Qu8QWdmp
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
“We’re trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026,” Moravy said. He added that production is underway on the line at Gigafactory Texas, but “all of those are currently going to our own internal Robotaxi fleet.”
Moravy explained that as operations scale, Tesla will “mainly deliver fully designed autonomous vehicles to our customers,” with the Cybercab as the first such vehicle. Initial customer deliveries will start small while the company gains experience with delivery logistics, ownership models, fleet management, and operating autonomous vehicles outside its direct control.
CEO Elon Musk reinforced the limited nature of private sales, describing the Cybercab primarily as a “transport-as-a-service” offering rather than a personal ownership vehicle like the Model 3, Model Y, or upcoming Roadster. “The vast majority of the Cybercab stuff will be Tesla-owned and transport-as-a-service,” Musk said.
The Cybercab is a two-seater vehicle developed by Tesla without a steering wheel or pedals. It relies completely on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite and has been in production since February. Early units have been put in Tesla’s Robotaxi service as of early September, when the company launched rides to the public. Tesla previously indicated it would aim to sell Cybercabs for about $30,000.
Unsupervised Full Self-Driving is expected to ship to consumer cars during Q2 2027, Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, indicated during the call. Early buyers or fleet operators may receive vehicles whose autonomous operation remains geographically restricted due to lagging regulatory agencies. There are some hurdles that remain ahead of Cybercab deliveries.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.
Here’s where Earnings came in:
- Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
- Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
- Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
- Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected
Tesla $TSLA Earnings Results:
Revenues: $28.046B
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48
Operating Margin: 2.6%
Operating Income: $718M
FCF: $1.531B— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Major Takeaways
Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”
Tesla Semi
“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”
SI Compute
“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”
Robotaxi
“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.
Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.
Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong
For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:
- Total Revenues: $28.34B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
- Operating Margin: 2.5%
- Operating Income: $721M
- Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B
Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:
Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability
This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.
Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.
Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress
The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.
Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.
Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for
Say Investor Questions
- How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
- When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
- When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
- What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
- Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?
The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.
Tesla Cybercab gets a for sale date at last
Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
