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Starlink satellites deploy their solar arrays in this official visualization. (SpaceX) Starlink satellites deploy their solar arrays in this official visualization. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX is in no rush for a Starlink IPO and that should terrify competitors

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SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell says that the Starlink satellite internet business is in no rush to become a separate company and pursue an IPO, and that relaxed demeanor should terrify competitor constellations and ISPs like OneWeb and Comcast.

Announced in January 2015, SpaceX has been developing a massive constellation of satellites capable of delivering high-quality broadband internet anywhere on Earth for half a decade. Known as Starlink, SpaceX launched its first dedicated satellite prototypes – known as Tintin A and B – in February 2018, serving as a very successful alpha test for the myriad technologies the company would need to master to realize the constellation’s goals. 15 months later, SpaceX launched its first batch of 60 radically-redesigned Starlink satellites – packed flat to fit in an unmodified Falcon 9 payload fairing.

Less than nine months after that first ‘v0.9’ mission, SpaceX has completed another three dedicated launches and made Starlink – now some 235 operational satellites strong – the world’s largest private satellite constellation by a huge margin. Now just two days away from its fifth Starlink launch, SpaceX’s second-in-command has revealed that the company will likely split Starlink off into its own separate company, enabling an IPO without sacrificing SpaceX’s broader freedom. However, Shotwell also made it clear that SpaceX is in no rush to do so, and that fact should strike fear into the hearts of Starlink’s many potential competitors.

https://twitter.com/valleyhack/status/1225474939454541825

Bloomberg first broke the news with a snippet revealing that SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell had told a private investor event that Starlink could eventually IPO as an independent company. While undeniably important, a SpaceX source – after confirming the news – also told Reuters reporter Joey Roulette that it would be “several years” before the company might kick off the process of a Starlink IPO.

While a seemingly small piece of information at face value, the fact that SpaceX is years away from a potential Starlink IPO implies that the company is incredibly confident in where it stands today. Given that SpaceX only started ramping up its Starlink production rates and launch cadence a handful of months ago, that apparent confidence – assuming SpaceX’s respected President and COO isn’t lying to the faces of prospective investors – is no small feat.

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Thanks to that production and launch cadence ramp, SpaceX is likely in the midst of one of the most capital-straining periods its Starlink program will ever experience. As a private company, SpaceX’s balance sheets are a black box to the public, but it’s safe to say that the it’s going through – or has already gone through – a phase of “production hell” similar to what Tesla experienced when it began building Roadsters, Model S/Xs, and Model 3s.

A stack of 60 Starlink v1.0 satellites. (SpaceX)

Building satellites like cars

In less than 12 months, SpaceX has effectively gone from manufacturing zero satellites to mass-producing something like 2-4 Starlink spacecraft every single day, almost without a doubt smashing any records previously held in the industry. It’s possible that companies like Planet (now the owner of the second-largest private constellation) or Spire have built more spacecraft in a given period, but SpaceX’s satellites are at least an order of magnitude larger, on average.

Around 260 kg (570 lb) apiece, SpaceX has built and launched a total of 240 spacecraft – together weighing more than 60 metric tons (135,000 lb) – in less than nine months. Furthermore, the company not only intends to crush that average but wants (if not needs) to do so for several years without interruption.

Starlink v0.9. (SpaceX)
Starlink v1.0 Launch 1. (SpaceX)
Starlink V1 L2. (SpaceX)
Starlink V1 L3. (SpaceX)

Back in May 2019, CEO Elon Musk confidently stated that he believes SpaceX already has all the capital it needs “to build an operational [Starlink] constellation”, likely referring to at least ~1500 operational communications satellites – launches included. This is why competitors should be moderately terrified that SpaceX isn’t even privately pushing for an IPO sooner than later. Perhaps the single biggest reason modern companies pursue IPOs is to raise substantial capital – usually far more than can be practically (or quickly) raised while private when executed successfully.

A step further, “several years” should mean titanic changes for SpaceX’s Starlink constellation if everything goes as planned. In 2020, SpaceX has publicly stated that it will attempt as many as 20-24 dedicated Starlink launches, an achievement that would translate to a constellation more than 1600 satellites strong by the end of the year. SpaceX says that 24 launches (20 if the first four missions are subtracted) is enough to offer global coverage and plans to begin serving customers in the northern US and Canada as early as this summer.

An animation of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite constellation. (SpaceX – GIF by Teslarati)

As of now, SpaceX has performed three 60-satellite Starlink launches total in the last three months – two in January 2020 alone – and Starlink V1 L4 (the fourth v1.0 launch and fifth launch overall) is scheduled to lift off just two days from now on February 15th. If Musk and Shotwell are correct and SpaceX can launch at least one or two thousand satellites without raising any additional capital, the constellation – potentially reaching those numbers by early to mid-2021 – may already have hundreds of thousands of customers by the time more funding is needed. 2000 Starlink v1.0 satellites, for reference, would theoretically offer enough collective bandwidth for more than 500,000 users to simultaneously stream Netflix content in 1080p.

As of early 2019, SpaceX had raised a total of $2B in venture capital, investments, and debt. Thus, even in the unlikely event that 100% of that funding goes to Starlink, the company would ultimately have to spend $500-700M annually from 2018 to the end of 2021 to run that large pool of capital dry by the time 1000-2000 satellites are in orbit.

SpaceX’s incredibly successful program of reusable rocketry is a foundation of the company’s Starlink constellation and is one of the reasons that its apparent cost projections are low enough to defy belief. (Richard Angle)

500,000 customers paying $50-100 per month by the end of 2021 would conservatively allow Starlink to generate $300-600M in annual revenue, excluding the likely possibility of even more lucrative government or commercial contracts. In other words, if SpaceX can accumulate an average of 20,000 paying subscribers per month between now and the end of 2021, Starlink could very well become self-sustaining at its current rate of growth – or close to it – by the time SpaceX is hurting for more funding. In a worst-case scenario, it thus appears all but certain that “several years” from now, SpaceX’s Starlink program will have at least a few thousand high-performance satellites in orbit, an extensive network of ground stations, and a large swath of alpha or beta customers by the time IPO proceedings begin.

Given that all that potential infrastructure would easily be worth at least $1-2B purely from a capital investment standpoint, Starlink’s ultimate IPO valuation – under Shotwell’s patient “maybe one day” approach – could be stratospheric.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla is ramping up its hiring for the Cybercab production team

As can be seen on Tesla’s Careers website, three new Cybercab-related positions are currently available at Giga Texas.

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Credit: @serobinsonjr/X

Tesla appears to be ramping up its Cybercab team at Giga Texas. As per recent observations by the Tesla community, three new job listings on the automaker’s Careers site suggest that the company is starting to add more critical personnel for the autonomous two-seater’s production.

New Cybercab jobs

As can be seen on Tesla’s Careers website, three new Cybercab-related positions are currently available. Tesla is looking for a Metrology Technician, who will work on the Cybercab’s Quality team; an Equipment Engineer who will work on the Cybercab’s Plastics team; and a Tool & Die Supervisor, who will work in the Injection Molding team.  

All three positions are based in Austin, Texas, which is quite unsurprising as Giga Texas is the only facility today that has the capability to produce the vehicle. The Cybercab’s production is quite different compared to Tesla’s other vehicles, as it is the first car that would be produced using the company’s “Unboxed” process. 

Credit: Tesla

Unlike any car that’s produced before

Elon Musk has previously said the Cybercab will be Tesla’s highest-volume vehicle, targeting an annual rate of 2 million units. He also mentioned that the vehicle’s manufacturing line will not resemble an automotive production line at all. Instead, it would resemble a high-speed consumer electronics line, which should pave the way for one Cybercab to be produced every few seconds.

“If you’ve seen the design of the Cybercab line, it doesn’t look like a normal car manufacturing line. It looks like a really high-speed consumer electronics line. In fact, the line will move so fast that actually people can’t even get close to it. I think it’ll be able to produce a car ultimately in less than 5 seconds,” Musk stated during Tesla’s All-Hands meeting earlier this year.

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Elon Musk: Grok 5 now has a 10% chance of becoming world’s first AGI

If his prediction comes to pass, xAI could very well become yet another world-changing company from Elon Musk. 

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Credit: xAI/X

Elon Musk has shared his most optimistic forecast about Grok 5’s capabilities yet. In a recent post on X, Musk stated that he now believes that the upcoming update to xAI’s large language model has a 10% chance of achieving artificial general intelligence. 

If his prediction comes to pass, xAI could very well become yet another world-changing company from Elon Musk. 

Musk’s previous Grok 5 estimate 

Just last month, Elon Musk estimated that xAI might have a chance at achieving artificial general intelligence with Grok 5. Musk’s comments at the time already made headlines, considering that no company in the world today has achieved AGI yet, though numerous AI startups today are actively pursuing artificial general intelligence.

In a recent post on X, Musk noted that his “estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising.” In another post, he also noted that “Grok 5 will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI.” Grok 5 is yet to be released, though Musk’s comments about the update are definitely setting expectations.

AGI will be world changing

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to an AI system that is capable of matching or surpassing human-level intelligence across tasks such as thinking, reasoning, and other domains by a notable margin, as noted in a previous report from Benzinga. With AGI achieved, industries from robotics to manufacturing would likely see a notable boost.

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As per a report from the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD), AGI could eventually pave the way for artificial super intelligence (ASI), which would be more intelligent than AGI and likely more intelligent than all of humanity combined. 

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Tesla Model Y L becomes China’s 4th best-selling mid-to-large SUV in its first month of sales

Tesla Model Y L was able to sell 8,221 units domestically in September.

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Credit: Tesla China

The Tesla Model Y L has only started deliveries last month, but it is already making its presence known in China’s mid-to-large SUV segment. As per data aggregated by Tesla watchers in China, the Model Y L has quickly risen as one of the country’s best-selling large SUVs just weeks into its first deliveries.

The momentum of the Model Y L has been so notable that it ended up being China’s fourth best-selling mid-to-large SUV in September.

Tesla Model Y L September sales

As per data compiled by Yiche, the Tesla Model Y L was able to sell 8,221 units domestically in September. This places it in fourth place in China’s rankings for best-selling large SUVs, just below the Leapmotor C16, the Li Auto L6, and the Xiaomi YU7, which sold 8,312, 11,827, and 22,244 units in September, respectively.

A look at the prices of China’s top four mid-to-large SUVs would show that the Model Y L is one of the pricier vehicles among the four. The Xiaomi YU7’s inclusion in the list is also quite interesting as the all-electric crossover primarily competes with the five-seat Model Y, not the Model Y L. Needless to say, the price difference between the Model Y L and the Xiaomi YU7 is quite substantial.

Just getting started

The Tesla Model Y L only started deliveries sometime in September. Following its launch in August, the Model Y L received positive reviews from professional reviewers, with many praising the vehicle’s spacious cabin and its reasonable price. It did not take long before the Model Y L was sold out for October, and later, November as well. Considering that the Model Y L now has an estimated delivery date of December 2025 for new orders, it seems safe to assume that every unit built by Giga Shanghai this quarter will be sold to consumers.

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The Model Y L has the makings of a best-seller. With a spacious second row that features two captain seats with retractable armrests, as well as a third row that could accommodate regular-sized adults, the Model Y L is a true family hauler. Combined with its starting price of $47,566 before options, the extended wheelbase all-electric crossover SUV does seem to have the makings of a best-seller.

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