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SpaceX is in no rush for a Starlink IPO and that should terrify competitors
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell says that the Starlink satellite internet business is in no rush to become a separate company and pursue an IPO, and that relaxed demeanor should terrify competitor constellations and ISPs like OneWeb and Comcast.
Announced in January 2015, SpaceX has been developing a massive constellation of satellites capable of delivering high-quality broadband internet anywhere on Earth for half a decade. Known as Starlink, SpaceX launched its first dedicated satellite prototypes – known as Tintin A and B – in February 2018, serving as a very successful alpha test for the myriad technologies the company would need to master to realize the constellation’s goals. 15 months later, SpaceX launched its first batch of 60 radically-redesigned Starlink satellites – packed flat to fit in an unmodified Falcon 9 payload fairing.
Less than nine months after that first ‘v0.9’ mission, SpaceX has completed another three dedicated launches and made Starlink – now some 235 operational satellites strong – the world’s largest private satellite constellation by a huge margin. Now just two days away from its fifth Starlink launch, SpaceX’s second-in-command has revealed that the company will likely split Starlink off into its own separate company, enabling an IPO without sacrificing SpaceX’s broader freedom. However, Shotwell also made it clear that SpaceX is in no rush to do so, and that fact should strike fear into the hearts of Starlink’s many potential competitors.
Bloomberg first broke the news with a snippet revealing that SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell had told a private investor event that Starlink could eventually IPO as an independent company. While undeniably important, a SpaceX source – after confirming the news – also told Reuters reporter Joey Roulette that it would be “several years” before the company might kick off the process of a Starlink IPO.
While a seemingly small piece of information at face value, the fact that SpaceX is years away from a potential Starlink IPO implies that the company is incredibly confident in where it stands today. Given that SpaceX only started ramping up its Starlink production rates and launch cadence a handful of months ago, that apparent confidence – assuming SpaceX’s respected President and COO isn’t lying to the faces of prospective investors – is no small feat.
Thanks to that production and launch cadence ramp, SpaceX is likely in the midst of one of the most capital-straining periods its Starlink program will ever experience. As a private company, SpaceX’s balance sheets are a black box to the public, but it’s safe to say that the it’s going through – or has already gone through – a phase of “production hell” similar to what Tesla experienced when it began building Roadsters, Model S/Xs, and Model 3s.
Building satellites like cars
In less than 12 months, SpaceX has effectively gone from manufacturing zero satellites to mass-producing something like 2-4 Starlink spacecraft every single day, almost without a doubt smashing any records previously held in the industry. It’s possible that companies like Planet (now the owner of the second-largest private constellation) or Spire have built more spacecraft in a given period, but SpaceX’s satellites are at least an order of magnitude larger, on average.
Around 260 kg (570 lb) apiece, SpaceX has built and launched a total of 240 spacecraft – together weighing more than 60 metric tons (135,000 lb) – in less than nine months. Furthermore, the company not only intends to crush that average but wants (if not needs) to do so for several years without interruption.
Back in May 2019, CEO Elon Musk confidently stated that he believes SpaceX already has all the capital it needs “to build an operational [Starlink] constellation”, likely referring to at least ~1500 operational communications satellites – launches included. This is why competitors should be moderately terrified that SpaceX isn’t even privately pushing for an IPO sooner than later. Perhaps the single biggest reason modern companies pursue IPOs is to raise substantial capital – usually far more than can be practically (or quickly) raised while private when executed successfully.
A step further, “several years” should mean titanic changes for SpaceX’s Starlink constellation if everything goes as planned. In 2020, SpaceX has publicly stated that it will attempt as many as 20-24 dedicated Starlink launches, an achievement that would translate to a constellation more than 1600 satellites strong by the end of the year. SpaceX says that 24 launches (20 if the first four missions are subtracted) is enough to offer global coverage and plans to begin serving customers in the northern US and Canada as early as this summer.
As of now, SpaceX has performed three 60-satellite Starlink launches total in the last three months – two in January 2020 alone – and Starlink V1 L4 (the fourth v1.0 launch and fifth launch overall) is scheduled to lift off just two days from now on February 15th. If Musk and Shotwell are correct and SpaceX can launch at least one or two thousand satellites without raising any additional capital, the constellation – potentially reaching those numbers by early to mid-2021 – may already have hundreds of thousands of customers by the time more funding is needed. 2000 Starlink v1.0 satellites, for reference, would theoretically offer enough collective bandwidth for more than 500,000 users to simultaneously stream Netflix content in 1080p.
As of early 2019, SpaceX had raised a total of $2B in venture capital, investments, and debt. Thus, even in the unlikely event that 100% of that funding goes to Starlink, the company would ultimately have to spend $500-700M annually from 2018 to the end of 2021 to run that large pool of capital dry by the time 1000-2000 satellites are in orbit.
500,000 customers paying $50-100 per month by the end of 2021 would conservatively allow Starlink to generate $300-600M in annual revenue, excluding the likely possibility of even more lucrative government or commercial contracts. In other words, if SpaceX can accumulate an average of 20,000 paying subscribers per month between now and the end of 2021, Starlink could very well become self-sustaining at its current rate of growth – or close to it – by the time SpaceX is hurting for more funding. In a worst-case scenario, it thus appears all but certain that “several years” from now, SpaceX’s Starlink program will have at least a few thousand high-performance satellites in orbit, an extensive network of ground stations, and a large swath of alpha or beta customers by the time IPO proceedings begin.
Given that all that potential infrastructure would easily be worth at least $1-2B purely from a capital investment standpoint, Starlink’s ultimate IPO valuation – under Shotwell’s patient “maybe one day” approach – could be stratospheric.
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk says Tesla Robotaxi launch will force companies to license Full Self-Driving
“The automakers keep being told that this isn’t real or that just buying some hardware from Nvidia will solve it. As Tesla robotaxis become widespread and their other solutions don’t work, they will naturally turn to us.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says the automaker’s Robotaxi platform launch later this month will essentially force other companies to license Full Self-Driving to achieve their own goals of achieving autonomy.
Musk’s statement comes as a video captured today showed the first Tesla Robotaxi test mules on public streets in Austin, Texas, just one day after the City officially listed the company as an autonomous vehicle operator.
A prediction by investing YouTube and Tesla community member Dave Lee stated that “at least one automaker by end of year” will license Full Self-Driving from the Musk-led company, as it will give rivals the confidence to use the software to run their own self-driving operations.
Lee detailed his theory by stating that the company that chooses to commit to FSD licensing will not be able to integrate the hardware and sell those units immediately. Instead, it will take two years or so to solve the engineering and design applications.
First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX
Musk revealed his true thoughts on other automakers’ attempts at vehicle autonomy, and said many are being told that Robotaxi is not real or that they can solve their problems with hardware orders to Nvidia.
He went on to say that companies will be forced to turn to Tesla at some point or another, because Robotaxi will be widespread and their solutions to figuring out an effective deployment will prove to be failures:
“The automakers keep being told that this isn’t real or that just buying some hardware from Nvidia will solve it. As Tesla robotaxis become widespread and their other solutions don’t work, they will naturally turn to us.”
The automakers keep being told that this isn’t real or that just buying some hardware from Nvidia will solve it.
As Tesla robotaxis become widespread and their other solutions don’t work, they will naturally turn to us.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 10, 2025
Musk has not been shy to respond to speculation regarding the video of the Robotaxi, which was shared on X earlier today. This is perhaps one of the more fiery things he revealed. He seems ultra-confident in what Tesla will prove and achieve in the near future with the launch of the Robotaxi platform.
Many believe it will be rolled out this month. Bloomberg reported recently that Tesla was internally aiming for June 12. The company has not directly responded to these rumors.
Tesla has discussed on several occasions that it is in talks with an automaker about licensing Full Self-Driving, but it has never revealed who. The company first revealed discussions with another automaker in early 2024 when Elon Musk said:
“We’re in conversations with one major automaker regarding licensing FSD. It really just becomes a case of having them use the same cameras and inference computer and licensing our software. Once it becomes obvious that if you don’t have this (FSD) in a car, nobody wants your car. It’s a smart car… The people don’t understand all cars will need to be smart cars, or you will not sell, or nobody would buy it. Once that becomes obvious, I think licensing becomes not optional.”
Tesla confirms it is in talks with major automaker for potential FSD licensing
Many, including us, suspected that Ford was the company that Tesla was speaking of due to Musk’s relationship with Jim Farley, which resulted in the legacy automaker being the first major car company to adopt Tesla’s North American Charging Standard (NACS), which gave them access to the Supercharging Network.
This catalyzed an onslaught of companies choosing to make the same move as Tesla had truly set itself apart in terms of charging infrastructure.
Companies may be forced to make a similar decision if it can make the same type of statement with the rollout of Robotaxi.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reveals new details about Robotaxi rollout
The first Tesla Robotaxi unit was spotted in Austin earlier today, and CEO Elon Musk is revealing some cool new details.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has revealed new details about the company’s relatively imminent rollout of the Robotaxi platform as the suspected launch date of June 12 continues to near.
Earlier today, the first video showing the first driverless Tesla Robotaxi in Austin was shared on X, just a day after the City officially listed the company as an autonomous vehicle operator on its website. Tesla is listed as a company in the “Testing” phase.
🚨 BREAKING: The first Tesla Robotaxi has been spotted in Austin!
It’s has the word “Robotaxi” inscribed on the side, and it’s very clear that there is nobody in the driver’s seat.
It does appear that someone is in the passenger’s seat. https://t.co/6BdTfd4B8p pic.twitter.com/dygWCeQ5kZ
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 10, 2025
The initial details of the Robotaxi are being revealed by Musk, who is carefully releasing small tidbits that seem to show the capabilities of the entire Tesla fleet, and not necessarily just the vehicles that will be involved in the initial rollout in Austin.
First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX
His first tidbit is one that many Tesla owners and fans will already know: many Teslas are capable of this driveless performance, but Full Self-Driving is not yet refined to the point where the software is quite ready to handle it. Current versions are robust, but not prepared for driverless navigation. The hardware, however, will enable Teslas to be Robotaxis, even if they’re already purchased by owners:
These are unmodified Tesla cars coming straight from the factory, meaning that every Tesla coming out of our factories is capable of unsupervised self-driving! https://t.co/n94ln0Uas6
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 10, 2025
This is one of the biggest advantages Tesla has over other vehicle makers. Simply put, the Over-the-Air software updates that will roll out to FSD users will eventually make their cars into Robotaxis as well.
However, Musk shed some details on the version of FSD that is being run in these new Robotaxis that were spotted. Musk said that the version these Robotaxis are running is a new version, but will soon “merge to main branch.”
There is also an even newer version that has four times the parameters as this newer version that the test-stage Robotaxis are using, but Musk admits that this needs significant refinement before it is released to the public.
It’s a new version of software, but will merge to main branch soon.
We have a more advanced model in alpha stage that has ~4X the params, but still requires a lot of polishing.
That’s probably ready for deploy in a few months.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 10, 2025
As of now, Tesla is simply teasing the actual launch date of the Robotaxi program, but Bloomberg reported earlier this month that it will occur on June 12.
News
First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX
The short clip suggests that Tesla may be ramping up its preparations for its robotaxi rollout in Austin.
A recent video posted on X has provided a first look at Tesla’s driverless robotaxi, which is expected to be deployed in Austin, Texas, this month. The vehicle was a new Tesla Model Y, which was followed by what appeared to be a manned chase car.
The short clip suggests that Tesla may be ramping up its preparations for its robotaxi rollout in Austin.
The First Robotaxi Sighting
It was evident from the short clip that the Tesla robotaxi was operating completely driverless. In the video, which was posted on X by @TerrapinTerpene, the driverless Tesla could be seen confidently making a turn. The vehicle looked and behaved like any other car on the road, save for the fact that there was no one in the driver’s seat.
Interestingly enough, the short video also provided a teaser on where Tesla will place its “robotaxi” logo on its self-driving cars. Based on the video, the robotaxis’ logo will be tastefully placed on the front doors, making the vehicles look sleek and clean.
Initial Rollout Imminent
Recent reports have suggested that Tesla is already starting the testing phase of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. Expectations are also high that Tesla’s initial fleet of self-driving vehicles will be utilizing a lot of teleoperation to ensure that they operate as safely as possible.
Updates to Austin’s official website recently have hinted at Tesla’s robotaxi launch. Just this Monday, Tesla was listed as an autonomous vehicle (AV) operator on Austin’s official Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). Other AV operators listed on the site are Waymo and Zoox, among others.
Elon Musk, for his part, has noted that by the end of June, the public in Austin should be ready to take rides in Tesla robotaxis without an invitation. He also noted in late May that Tesla has been busy testing driverless cars on Austin’s city streets without any incidents.
Elon Musk says Tesla Robotaxi launch will force companies to license Full Self-Driving
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reveals new details about Robotaxi rollout
First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX
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