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SpaceX is in no rush for a Starlink IPO and that should terrify competitors
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell says that the Starlink satellite internet business is in no rush to become a separate company and pursue an IPO, and that relaxed demeanor should terrify competitor constellations and ISPs like OneWeb and Comcast.
Announced in January 2015, SpaceX has been developing a massive constellation of satellites capable of delivering high-quality broadband internet anywhere on Earth for half a decade. Known as Starlink, SpaceX launched its first dedicated satellite prototypes – known as Tintin A and B – in February 2018, serving as a very successful alpha test for the myriad technologies the company would need to master to realize the constellation’s goals. 15 months later, SpaceX launched its first batch of 60 radically-redesigned Starlink satellites – packed flat to fit in an unmodified Falcon 9 payload fairing.
Less than nine months after that first ‘v0.9’ mission, SpaceX has completed another three dedicated launches and made Starlink – now some 235 operational satellites strong – the world’s largest private satellite constellation by a huge margin. Now just two days away from its fifth Starlink launch, SpaceX’s second-in-command has revealed that the company will likely split Starlink off into its own separate company, enabling an IPO without sacrificing SpaceX’s broader freedom. However, Shotwell also made it clear that SpaceX is in no rush to do so, and that fact should strike fear into the hearts of Starlink’s many potential competitors.
Bloomberg first broke the news with a snippet revealing that SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell had told a private investor event that Starlink could eventually IPO as an independent company. While undeniably important, a SpaceX source – after confirming the news – also told Reuters reporter Joey Roulette that it would be “several years” before the company might kick off the process of a Starlink IPO.
While a seemingly small piece of information at face value, the fact that SpaceX is years away from a potential Starlink IPO implies that the company is incredibly confident in where it stands today. Given that SpaceX only started ramping up its Starlink production rates and launch cadence a handful of months ago, that apparent confidence – assuming SpaceX’s respected President and COO isn’t lying to the faces of prospective investors – is no small feat.
Thanks to that production and launch cadence ramp, SpaceX is likely in the midst of one of the most capital-straining periods its Starlink program will ever experience. As a private company, SpaceX’s balance sheets are a black box to the public, but it’s safe to say that the it’s going through – or has already gone through – a phase of “production hell” similar to what Tesla experienced when it began building Roadsters, Model S/Xs, and Model 3s.
Building satellites like cars
In less than 12 months, SpaceX has effectively gone from manufacturing zero satellites to mass-producing something like 2-4 Starlink spacecraft every single day, almost without a doubt smashing any records previously held in the industry. It’s possible that companies like Planet (now the owner of the second-largest private constellation) or Spire have built more spacecraft in a given period, but SpaceX’s satellites are at least an order of magnitude larger, on average.
Around 260 kg (570 lb) apiece, SpaceX has built and launched a total of 240 spacecraft – together weighing more than 60 metric tons (135,000 lb) – in less than nine months. Furthermore, the company not only intends to crush that average but wants (if not needs) to do so for several years without interruption.
Back in May 2019, CEO Elon Musk confidently stated that he believes SpaceX already has all the capital it needs “to build an operational [Starlink] constellation”, likely referring to at least ~1500 operational communications satellites – launches included. This is why competitors should be moderately terrified that SpaceX isn’t even privately pushing for an IPO sooner than later. Perhaps the single biggest reason modern companies pursue IPOs is to raise substantial capital – usually far more than can be practically (or quickly) raised while private when executed successfully.
A step further, “several years” should mean titanic changes for SpaceX’s Starlink constellation if everything goes as planned. In 2020, SpaceX has publicly stated that it will attempt as many as 20-24 dedicated Starlink launches, an achievement that would translate to a constellation more than 1600 satellites strong by the end of the year. SpaceX says that 24 launches (20 if the first four missions are subtracted) is enough to offer global coverage and plans to begin serving customers in the northern US and Canada as early as this summer.
As of now, SpaceX has performed three 60-satellite Starlink launches total in the last three months – two in January 2020 alone – and Starlink V1 L4 (the fourth v1.0 launch and fifth launch overall) is scheduled to lift off just two days from now on February 15th. If Musk and Shotwell are correct and SpaceX can launch at least one or two thousand satellites without raising any additional capital, the constellation – potentially reaching those numbers by early to mid-2021 – may already have hundreds of thousands of customers by the time more funding is needed. 2000 Starlink v1.0 satellites, for reference, would theoretically offer enough collective bandwidth for more than 500,000 users to simultaneously stream Netflix content in 1080p.
As of early 2019, SpaceX had raised a total of $2B in venture capital, investments, and debt. Thus, even in the unlikely event that 100% of that funding goes to Starlink, the company would ultimately have to spend $500-700M annually from 2018 to the end of 2021 to run that large pool of capital dry by the time 1000-2000 satellites are in orbit.
500,000 customers paying $50-100 per month by the end of 2021 would conservatively allow Starlink to generate $300-600M in annual revenue, excluding the likely possibility of even more lucrative government or commercial contracts. In other words, if SpaceX can accumulate an average of 20,000 paying subscribers per month between now and the end of 2021, Starlink could very well become self-sustaining at its current rate of growth – or close to it – by the time SpaceX is hurting for more funding. In a worst-case scenario, it thus appears all but certain that “several years” from now, SpaceX’s Starlink program will have at least a few thousand high-performance satellites in orbit, an extensive network of ground stations, and a large swath of alpha or beta customers by the time IPO proceedings begin.
Given that all that potential infrastructure would easily be worth at least $1-2B purely from a capital investment standpoint, Starlink’s ultimate IPO valuation – under Shotwell’s patient “maybe one day” approach – could be stratospheric.
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Tesla Robotaxi just got a big benefit from the U.S. government
The NHTSA is looking to help streamline the application process for companies developing driverless vehicles.
Tesla Robotaxi just got a big benefit from the U.S. Government, as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is looking to ease some rules and streamline the application process that could hinder the development and licensing of autonomous vehicles.
Tesla is set to launch its Robotaxi platform in the coming days or weeks, but regulation on autonomous vehicles is incredibly slim, so automakers are left in a strange limbo as permissions to operate are usually up to local jurisdictions.
The NHTSA still has the ultimate say, but it is now adopting a new strategy that will see companies gain an exemption from federal safety standards and streamline the entire application process.
The agency is authorized to grant exemptions to permit manufacturers to produce vehicles over a two or three-year period that might not comply with certain Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS). Robotaxi, for example, will eventually not have a steering wheel or pedals, through the Cybercab that Tesla unveiled last October.
The exemption program the NHTSA announced today would be possible through Part 555 of the National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act:
“NHTSA may grant a Part 555 exemption if at least one of four bases listed in the statute is met and NHTSA determines that the exemption is consistent with the public interest and the Safety Act. The statute also authorizes NHTSA to subject an exemption to terms the agency deems appropriate and requires that NHTSA publish notice of the application and provide an opportunity to comment.”
The rapid and non-stop innovation that is being performed is tough to keep up with from a legal standpoint. The NHTSA recognizes this and says current legislation is appropriate for traditional vehicles, but not for the self-driving cars companies are producing now:
“The current Part 555 process was designed for traditional vehicles. As currently applied, this process is not well suited for processing exemptions involving ADS-equipped vehicles in a timely manner or overseeing the unique complexities involving their operations. This has resulted in long processing times for applications for ADS-equipped vehicles. NHTSA must improve its Part 555 processing times substantially to keep pace with the rapid innovation of the ADS industry and to ensure that exemptions remain effective tools for nurturing groundbreaking safety technologies.”
Now, the NHTSA will be “enhancing application instructions” to help manufacturers understand the requirements involved in the application process. This will streamline the entire process by “reducing the need for NHTSA to request additional information from the manufacturer,” the agency says.
First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX
Next, the NHTSA is going to have a more flexible approach to evaluating exemptions for ADS-equipped vehicles:
“To build flexibility into the Part 555 process while also accounting for the unique aspects of those exemptions, NHTSA intends to develop terms that could be included in Part 555 exemption grants, when appropriate, to condition operations of exempted ADS-equipped vehicles on enhanced and continuing oversight from NHTSA. NHTSA would expect to administer this enhanced oversight through letters, which could be updated over time, mirroring real-world ADS development. This will enable NHTSA to focus its initial review during the application stage and align the Part 555 oversight approach more closely to exemptions administered under NHTSA’s Automated Vehicle Exemption Program (AVEP), which have proven effective for ADS.”
This will benefit any company making autonomous vehicles, but it will especially benefit Tesla in the short-term as it is readying for the launch of Robotaxi.
Tesla is trading up 1.89 percent at the time of publication.
Part 555 Letter June 2025 by Joey Klender on Scribd
News
SpaceX produces its 10 millionth Starlink kit
The first 5 million Starlink kits took nearly four years to build.
SpaceX has achieved a major milestone, producing its 10 millionth Starlink kit. The accomplishment was celebrated across the company’s Hawthorne, California, and Bastrop, Texas, facilities.
The milestone was shared in social media by Sujay Soman, Senior Facilities Engineer, in a LinkedIn post, which has since been deleted.
Starlink Production Ramp
Soman noted in his LinkedIn post that the first 5 million Starlink kits took nearly four years to build, but the next 5 million kits were completed in just 11 months. This underscores SpaceX’s intense efforts to ramp up the satellite internet system’s production, and it reflects the private space company’s manufacturing prowess.
The SpaceX Senior Facilities Engineer shared a couple of photos of the Machine Maintenance and Facilities team in Bastrop to commemorate the event.
“Today, Starlink Product teams across our Hawthorne and Bastrop sites produced the 10th Million Starlink Kit! It took almost 4 years to build our first 5 million kits, and we doubled that in about 11 months. Monumental accomplishment!” Soman wrote in his post.
World-Changing Technology
The Starlink kits, featuring dish hardware and supporting equipment, enable users to connect to the company’s growing constellation of low Earth orbit satellites. With over 6,000 satellites launched to date, Starlink now provides fast and reliable internet connectivity to over 6 million customers worldwide. This was a significant increase from the 5 million customers that the company reported in February 2025.
SpaceX has not detailed its next production targets, but the production of Starlink’s 10 millionth kit milestone signals the company’s readiness to scale further. Being an Elon Musk-led company, SpaceX is arguably the best in the business when it comes to efficient and cost-effective manufacturing. It would then be unsurprising if SpaceX announces another Starlink production milestone soon.
News
Tesla retires yoke steering wheel in base Model S and X
Tesla’s controversial steering yoke is now exclusive to the Model S and Model X Plaid.
Tesla has closed a chapter in the saga of the Model S and Model X’s controversial steering yoke. Following the announcement of the new iterations of the flagship vehicles, Tesla promptly removed the steering option for the vehicles’ base variants.
This means that if drivers wish to experience the Model S or Model X with a yoke, they would have to go Plaid.
The new Model S and Model X
The refresh of the Model S and Model X were quite minor, with the two vehicles featuring a new front camera, a new color, and a handful of other small changes like new exterior styling for the Model S Plaid. Tesla also noted on its website that the two vehicles now have a much smoother and quieter ride.
The changes were quite polarizing, with some appreciating the subtle improvements made to the two flagship cars and others arguing that Tesla should have done more. Others, however, noted that the level of improvements implemented on the Model S and Model X would already be considered major refresh for a tech company like Apple.
No More Yoke Unless Plaid
When Tesla refreshed the Model S and Model X in 2021, the vehicles were released with a steering yoke as standard. The yoke was controversial, with critics stating that it was unsafe and fans stating that it made driving the Model S and Model X fun. Tesla later introduced a round steering wheel option for the Model S and Model X, which later became standard on the two flagship vehicles.
This remains true today, with the most recent versions of the Model S and Model X still being released with a round steering wheel as standard. Those who wish to experience the Model S and Model X Plaid as envisioned by the company and its CEO, Elon Musk, however, might find it a good idea to spend the extra $1,000 for the vehicles’ yoke steering wheel.
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