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Starlink satellites deploy their solar arrays in this official visualization. (SpaceX) Starlink satellites deploy their solar arrays in this official visualization. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX is in no rush for a Starlink IPO and that should terrify competitors

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SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell says that the Starlink satellite internet business is in no rush to become a separate company and pursue an IPO, and that relaxed demeanor should terrify competitor constellations and ISPs like OneWeb and Comcast.

Announced in January 2015, SpaceX has been developing a massive constellation of satellites capable of delivering high-quality broadband internet anywhere on Earth for half a decade. Known as Starlink, SpaceX launched its first dedicated satellite prototypes – known as Tintin A and B – in February 2018, serving as a very successful alpha test for the myriad technologies the company would need to master to realize the constellation’s goals. 15 months later, SpaceX launched its first batch of 60 radically-redesigned Starlink satellites – packed flat to fit in an unmodified Falcon 9 payload fairing.

Less than nine months after that first ‘v0.9’ mission, SpaceX has completed another three dedicated launches and made Starlink – now some 235 operational satellites strong – the world’s largest private satellite constellation by a huge margin. Now just two days away from its fifth Starlink launch, SpaceX’s second-in-command has revealed that the company will likely split Starlink off into its own separate company, enabling an IPO without sacrificing SpaceX’s broader freedom. However, Shotwell also made it clear that SpaceX is in no rush to do so, and that fact should strike fear into the hearts of Starlink’s many potential competitors.

https://twitter.com/valleyhack/status/1225474939454541825

Bloomberg first broke the news with a snippet revealing that SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell had told a private investor event that Starlink could eventually IPO as an independent company. While undeniably important, a SpaceX source – after confirming the news – also told Reuters reporter Joey Roulette that it would be “several years” before the company might kick off the process of a Starlink IPO.

While a seemingly small piece of information at face value, the fact that SpaceX is years away from a potential Starlink IPO implies that the company is incredibly confident in where it stands today. Given that SpaceX only started ramping up its Starlink production rates and launch cadence a handful of months ago, that apparent confidence – assuming SpaceX’s respected President and COO isn’t lying to the faces of prospective investors – is no small feat.

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Thanks to that production and launch cadence ramp, SpaceX is likely in the midst of one of the most capital-straining periods its Starlink program will ever experience. As a private company, SpaceX’s balance sheets are a black box to the public, but it’s safe to say that the it’s going through – or has already gone through – a phase of “production hell” similar to what Tesla experienced when it began building Roadsters, Model S/Xs, and Model 3s.

A stack of 60 Starlink v1.0 satellites. (SpaceX)

Building satellites like cars

In less than 12 months, SpaceX has effectively gone from manufacturing zero satellites to mass-producing something like 2-4 Starlink spacecraft every single day, almost without a doubt smashing any records previously held in the industry. It’s possible that companies like Planet (now the owner of the second-largest private constellation) or Spire have built more spacecraft in a given period, but SpaceX’s satellites are at least an order of magnitude larger, on average.

Around 260 kg (570 lb) apiece, SpaceX has built and launched a total of 240 spacecraft – together weighing more than 60 metric tons (135,000 lb) – in less than nine months. Furthermore, the company not only intends to crush that average but wants (if not needs) to do so for several years without interruption.

Starlink v0.9. (SpaceX)
Starlink v1.0 Launch 1. (SpaceX)
Starlink V1 L2. (SpaceX)
Starlink V1 L3. (SpaceX)

Back in May 2019, CEO Elon Musk confidently stated that he believes SpaceX already has all the capital it needs “to build an operational [Starlink] constellation”, likely referring to at least ~1500 operational communications satellites – launches included. This is why competitors should be moderately terrified that SpaceX isn’t even privately pushing for an IPO sooner than later. Perhaps the single biggest reason modern companies pursue IPOs is to raise substantial capital – usually far more than can be practically (or quickly) raised while private when executed successfully.

A step further, “several years” should mean titanic changes for SpaceX’s Starlink constellation if everything goes as planned. In 2020, SpaceX has publicly stated that it will attempt as many as 20-24 dedicated Starlink launches, an achievement that would translate to a constellation more than 1600 satellites strong by the end of the year. SpaceX says that 24 launches (20 if the first four missions are subtracted) is enough to offer global coverage and plans to begin serving customers in the northern US and Canada as early as this summer.

An animation of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite constellation. (SpaceX – GIF by Teslarati)

As of now, SpaceX has performed three 60-satellite Starlink launches total in the last three months – two in January 2020 alone – and Starlink V1 L4 (the fourth v1.0 launch and fifth launch overall) is scheduled to lift off just two days from now on February 15th. If Musk and Shotwell are correct and SpaceX can launch at least one or two thousand satellites without raising any additional capital, the constellation – potentially reaching those numbers by early to mid-2021 – may already have hundreds of thousands of customers by the time more funding is needed. 2000 Starlink v1.0 satellites, for reference, would theoretically offer enough collective bandwidth for more than 500,000 users to simultaneously stream Netflix content in 1080p.

As of early 2019, SpaceX had raised a total of $2B in venture capital, investments, and debt. Thus, even in the unlikely event that 100% of that funding goes to Starlink, the company would ultimately have to spend $500-700M annually from 2018 to the end of 2021 to run that large pool of capital dry by the time 1000-2000 satellites are in orbit.

SpaceX’s incredibly successful program of reusable rocketry is a foundation of the company’s Starlink constellation and is one of the reasons that its apparent cost projections are low enough to defy belief. (Richard Angle)

500,000 customers paying $50-100 per month by the end of 2021 would conservatively allow Starlink to generate $300-600M in annual revenue, excluding the likely possibility of even more lucrative government or commercial contracts. In other words, if SpaceX can accumulate an average of 20,000 paying subscribers per month between now and the end of 2021, Starlink could very well become self-sustaining at its current rate of growth – or close to it – by the time SpaceX is hurting for more funding. In a worst-case scenario, it thus appears all but certain that “several years” from now, SpaceX’s Starlink program will have at least a few thousand high-performance satellites in orbit, an extensive network of ground stations, and a large swath of alpha or beta customers by the time IPO proceedings begin.

Given that all that potential infrastructure would easily be worth at least $1-2B purely from a capital investment standpoint, Starlink’s ultimate IPO valuation – under Shotwell’s patient “maybe one day” approach – could be stratospheric.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla produces 100,000th new Model Y in Giga Berlin

The milestone was announced on X.

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing/X

Tesla has produced its 100,000th new Model Y at Gigafactory Berlin. The milestone was announced by the electric vehicle maker through its official Tesla Manufacturing account on social media platform X. 

New Tesla Model Y milestone

The milestone was announced by Tesla on X, when the company wrote “Today, we built the 100,000th New Model Y at Giga Berlin!” The announcement was accompanied by an image of a new Model Y coming off the line.

The milestone was received warmly by members of the Tesla community, many of whom expressed excitement at the further progress of the new Model Y program at Giga Berlin. The facility, after all, only produces Model Y units, which would make it the perfect site to produce new variants like the Model Y Performance and possibly even the Model Y L, which was recently launched in China. 

New Model Y ramp

As noted in a previous report from electrive, the initial production of the new Model Y started in Giga Berlin around mid-January 2025. Since the new Model Y involved a changeover from the legacy Y to the new variant, the ramp of the new Model Y’s production at the Germany-based facility was likely a gradual process over the past months. 

It would then be no surprise if the next 100,000 new Model Y units would be produced in Giga Berlin in a shorter period. Giga Berlin could become an even bigger factor in Tesla’s global sales, after all, especially if it becomes the site that produces the Model Y Performance and the Model Y L for Europe and other territories. Giga Berlin, if any, seems to be quite busy recently, with aerial videos of the facility showing a fleet of mysteriously covered Model Y units being stored within the complex.

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Tesla set to win big after IRS adjusts EV tax credit rules

“For purposes of sections 25E, 30D, and 45W, a vehicle is ‘acquired’ as of the date a written binding contract is entered into and a payment has been made. A payment includes a nominal down payment or a vehicle trade-in.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is set to potentially come out as a big winner as the IRS has adjusted the rules of the $7,500 EV tax credit slightly.

The $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles is set to expire on September 30, but the IRS has made a slight adjustment to the terms of the credit that will give consumers a bit more time to buy an EV and receive the discount.

The original terms of the EV tax credit were that delivery of an EV must be completed by September 30. Even if you had made a reservation or put a down payment on an EV, if it did not arrive and take delivery by September 30, the credit would not apply to you.

Tesla is ready with a perfect counter to the end of US EV tax credits

This put some people in quite a tough situation. As wait times for some EVs, especially Tesla Model Y and Model 3 vehicles, continue to be pushed back due to an increase in demand as consumers are trying to take advantage of the credit, some car buyers ordered a car that was not the trim level, paint color, or interior color that they wanted.

However, the IRS has adjusted the terms of the tax credit to enable people to have a bit more time to get the vehicle they want.

Late last week, the agency said that the meaning of “acquired” has been changed, and now, if a consumer has entered a legally binding contract to take delivery of the vehicle, which includes a nominal down payment on the car, they can take delivery after the previous September 30 deadline and still qualify for the credit.

The IRS wrote:

“For purposes of sections 25E, 30D, and 45W, a vehicle is ‘acquired’ as of the date a written binding contract is entered into and a payment has been made. A payment includes a nominal down payment or a vehicle trade-in.”

Tesla could come out as a big winner here because of this. The company is experiencing a lot of demand for its cars because of the tax credit’s expiration, and now that the rule has been adjusted to include orders received by the 30th as long as they’re accompanied by a nominal down payment, some of these high-demand deliveries could leak into Q4.

Q3 is likely going to be a very strong quarter for Tesla, and questions remain about how the company will perform in subsequent quarters since the tax credit is going away. However, this slight adjustment is a big plus for Tesla and other EV makers.

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Tesla Semi factory receives giant production equipment

The massive machine was transported to the Semi factory using two diesel trucks and a triple trailer.

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Credit: @HinrichsZane/X

Tesla seems determined to kick off the production of the Tesla Semi sometime this year at its Nevada factory.

This was hinted at by the arrival of massive production equipment to the Semi’s manufacturing site near Giga Nevada.

New equipment

What appeared to be a massive stamping machine has been transported to the Giga Texas complex. Spotted by longtime drone operator and Tesla Semi advocate @HinrichsZane, the massive contraption is so large and heavy that a single semi truck and trailer were not enough to move it. Instead, the massive machine was shipped to the Semi factory using two diesel trucks and a triple trailer.

The machine was fully covered in the videos from Nevada, but based on its shape and size, it appears that it is a stamping press for the Class 8 all-electric truck. Tesla is a pioneer in the use of Megacasts in the automotive industry, so it makes sense for the company to use a Giga Press for the Semi’s production as well.

Ambitious goals

The Tesla Semi factory is expected to produce a whopping 50,000 units of the Class 8 all-electric truck annually when it is fully ramped. At that output, the facility would be one of the country’s highest-volume plants for semi trailers, electric or otherwise. In a video posted earlier this year, Dan Priestley, who leads the Semi program at Tesla, stated that the company is looking to achieve volume production over the coming quarters.

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This should allow the Tesla Semi factory to mass produce the vehicle by 2026. Tesla CEO Elon Musk reiterated this timeframe recently, when he responded to a post on social media platform X about Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates being bearish about battery electric semi trucks.  “Tesla Semi will be in volume production next year,” Musk said in his post, which also included a laughing emoji. 

Check out the drone operator’s recent footage of the Tesla Semi factory in the video below.

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