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SpaceX “intends” to start launching next-generation Starlink satellites in March

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In a new Q&A with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), SpaceX says it still “plans” and “intends” to begin launching the next generation of Starlink satellites as early as March 2022.

In August 2021, SpaceX filed an application modification request with the FCC in a bid to change its plans for the next-generation “Gen2” Starlink constellation, which still aims to drastically improve and expand upon its first few phases. SpaceX filed the first unmodified Gen2 Starlink application with the FCC in May 2020, requesting permission to launch an unprecedented 30,000 satellites. While the size of the proposed constellation is extraordinary, the FCC has also been exceptionally slow to process it. Only five months after SpaceX submitted its Starlink Gen2 modification request and nineteen months after its original Gen2 application did the FCC finally accept it for filing, which means that it has taken more than a year and a half to merely start the official review process.

That extremely slow pace of work could pose problems for SpaceX’s characteristically ambitious deployment schedule.

In a January 7th, 2022 electronic filing in which SpaceX answered a dozen questions from the FCC, the company didn’t outright criticize the extreme sluggishness with which it was reviewing the application but the sentiment was still just below the surface throughout it. After noting that the FCC continues to ask for far more information from SpaceX than it does from other constellation applications, some of which have recently received licenses in spite of that, SpaceX states that it while it “filed its Gen2 Application more than nineteen months ago…and its Amendment nearly five months ago, they were accepted for filing only two weeks ago.”

It’s perhaps no coincidence that that inexplicable delay only came to an end two weeks after FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel – who SpaceX notes recently acknowledged a “need to speed the processing of applications to keep pace with…innovation” – was finally confirmed by the US Senate.

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Most importantly, though, SpaceX used its extensive Q&A to reveal that it downselected to one of the two similar constellation configurations proposed in its Gen2 application modification. Specifically, SpaceX says it will continue to develop Configuration 1 only, which is designed and organized to take full advantage of the company’s next-generation Starship launch vehicle. That should simplify the licensing process for many Starlink competitors, which have sought to hobble SpaceX’s application with bizarre requests to the FCC and complained ad nauseam about how much of a burden analyzing two potential constellation layouts was for them. Now they will only have to consider one constellation layout, making SpaceX’s Gen2 constellation a more traditional – if still massive – proposal.

Clearly lacking a great deal of self-awareness about the irony of such of a question, the FCC also saw fit to ask SpaceX for “any updates regarding the expected timing of launches for the Gen2 system.” The timing of Starlink Gen2 launches is obviously unequivocally contingent upon FCC approval more than 19 months after SpaceX first submitted an application for said approval. Nonetheless, SpaceX politely answered the question, revealing that it had “informed Commission staff before filing its Amendment” in August 2021 that it “plans to have Gen2 satellites prepared for launch as soon as March 2022” and “still intends to begin launching [Starlink Gen2 satellites] as early as March 2022.”

Many readers and industry followers interpreted this as an implicit claim that Starship will be ready to launch Starlink Gen2 satellites as early as March 2022 – just another of the company’s detached-from-reality schedule estimates, in other words. That’s simply not the case, though. While SpaceX does confirm that it’s settling on a Starlink Gen2 configuration that will explicitly depend upon Starship for the full 29,988-satellite constellation’s timely, cost-effective deployment, FCC deployment and operations licensing are almost inherently unconcerned with how the constellation gets into space. For example, the original Gen2 application SpaceX modified last August never mentioned which launch vehicle would be responsible for launching tens of thousands of satellites. So long as the rocket is compliant with FCC regulations and has an active permit for any given launch, which is also the responsibility of a different bureau, the FCC is effectively indifferent about which rockets launch a given constellation.

In other words, while SpaceX has made it clear that Starlink Gen2 Configuration 1 is optimized for Starship, SpaceX will be free to launch Gen2 satellites on any rocket it wants if or when the FCC approves the constellation. Assuming that Starlink Gen2 satellites will still be able to fit inside a 5.2m (17 ft) wide payload fairing, that includes Falcon 9. Further, in early 2018, the FCC allowed SpaceX to launch the first two Starlink satellite prototypes before it had issued the company a license for the full constellation, making it clear that with the right paperwork, prospective constellation operators can launch and test prototype satellites before their full constellations are approved.

This is to say that there is nothing theoretically preventing SpaceX from again pursuing permission to launch a few prototype Starlink satellites (this time Gen2) before the FCC has finished reviewing and approving the whole constellation. In fact, anything less would actually be surprising and unusual for the company. When SpaceX says in January 2022 that it plans to have Gen2 satellites ready for launch by March 2022, it’s thus not hard to believe that that’s the truth. Perhaps it will take a month or two longer than planned to complete the prototypes, secure temporary FCC approval, and build and license a new E-band ground station, but it’s still believable that SpaceX will be ready and able to launch the first few Starlink Gen2 satellites on Falcon 9 within the next several months. Above all else, unless SpaceX has explicitly designed Starlink Gen2 satellites such that they no longer fit inside a Falcon fairing, nothing is forcing SpaceX to wait for Starship if Gen2 prototypes are ready to launch before the next-gen rocket.

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Given that Starship will have to wait until at least March 2022 for its first orbital test flight after FAA review delays, it’s obviously implausible that the rocket will be ready to launch Starlink prototypes by then. Starship S20 – currently said by CEO Elon Musk to be the first space-bound prototype – doesn’t even have a payload bay. Unless SpaceX wants to wait several more months after that to kick off the flight-testing phase of Starlink Gen2 development, it’s likely that the first few satellites will launch on Falcon 9 – either alongside routine Starlink V1.5 launches or on their own.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving impressions after three weeks of ownership

I will be fair and tell you all what I truly enjoy, as well as what frustrates me about Full Self-Driving.

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Credit: Joey Klender

Tesla Full Self-Driving is amongst the most robust and refined semi-autonomous driver assistance systems on the market today. After three weeks of ownership, I’ve driven around half of my miles using it, and my impressions put me right in the middle of it being very impressive and needing some work.

Of course, if it were perfect, it would be driving us all around all the time while we sleep, scroll our phones, or watch movies in the cockpit. It does a lot of things very well, and it has managed to impress everyone I’ve put in the passenger’s seat.

However, there are some things that are obvious pain points, situations that need improvement, and areas where I believe it has a long way to go. Regardless, these are things I have noticed, and they may differ from your opinions based on your location or traffic situations.

Tesla Model Y ownership two weeks in: what I love and what I don’t

I’ll try to keep it pretty even and just highlight the things that are truly noticeable with Full Self-Driving. I won’t be too critical of the things that it is bad at, and I won’t try to give it too much of a pat on the back.

I will be fair and tell you all what I truly enjoy, as well as what frustrates me about it.

*Disclaimer: These Full Self-Driving examples were in use with v13.2.9.

Where Tesla Full Self-Driving is Great

Highway Driving

I have yet to have a critical intervention of any kind on the highway. I have driven on easy highways like Rt. 30 in Pennsylvania, and I have driven on congested four-lane parking lots like I-695 near Baltimore, Maryland.

Tesla FSD does a tremendous job on all of it. I usually use the “Hurry” setting of FSD with an offset of between 25 and 40 percent, depending on what I’m doing and where I’m going. Sometimes, I want to push it a bit, and at other times, I’m okay with taking my time and enjoying the drive.

I find the driving style of Hurry is more similar to the traffic around me than the Standard, which tends to drive like an 80-year-old on their way to Bingo.

It does a great job of being considerate, maintaining an appropriate rate of travel, getting over for cars that are tailgating in the left lane after passing traffic, and it always is where it needs to be when it needs to be there.

Taking the Stress Out of Driving

A few nights ago, I was having some trouble sleeping, and I was up at 3 a.m. I decided it would be a good time to get up, grab a breakfast burrito and a coffee, and head to the Supercharger.

(If you don’t know, I do not have home charging, and I will be diving into EV ownership without that in a future article.)

I let FSD drive me to the Supercharger and back while I was done. I was able to enjoy a beautiful sunrise without having to focus all my attention on the traffic around me, while still maintaining enough attention to the road to keep the driver monitoring happy.

It was really nice. I enjoyed the ride, and it felt like I was in an Uber with a very careful driver while I enjoyed the rest of my coffee and peeked at the sky every few seconds.

Learning and Improving

A few weeks ago, I approached an “Except Right Turn” stop sign. I have discussed how these are a Pennsylvania specialty, and the first time FSD encountered one in my Model Y, it stopped, even though we were heading right.

I took over, submitted a voice memo to Tesla about it, and went on with my evening. A week later, the car approached the same turn, and, to my surprise, it proceeded through the Stop Sign correctly, safely, and at an appropriate speed.

It was nice to see this improvement, especially since this is one of those regional issues that Tesla will need to address before FSD is fully autonomous. The change even impressed my Fiancé, who was with me during both instances we came upon this turn.

Where Tesla Full Self-Driving Could Be Better

Auto Wipers

Good gravy, these Auto Wipers always seem to give me a good laugh.

They never really have the right speed; they are either way too fast or not fast enough. There’s never been a happy medium.

It also loves to activate a single wipe of the blade at the strangest times. I’ve noticed that it actually seems to activate at the same spots on the road sometimes. There’s a hanging branch near my house, and every time we go under it and FSD is activated, the wipers wipe once.

It would be nice to set your own intervals for the wipers, but I am okay with the current presets. I do hope the Auto Wipers improve, because it could be one of the best features the car has if it’s more accurate.

It Struggles with Signs That Require Reading

The “Except Right Turn” sign is one example, but another is a “Stop Here on Red” sign that is recessed from an intersection at a stop light if it’s a tighter turn. Recently, I had to slam on the brakes as it was headed straight through one of these signs.

It can recognize Stop Signs and Yield Signs, but signs with instructions for an intersection appear to present a greater challenge for FSD.

Sometimes, It Just Does Things I Don’t Like

There is a four-lane light near my house; the two right lanes go straight, but the lane furthest right is for turning into businesses past the intersection. Some people tend to go in that far right lane, even if they have no intention of turning right into the businesses, and take off quickly from the light to cut ahead.

I’m not saying it’s illegal or even wrong, but I personally prefer not to do it. I am never in that much of a hurry.

FSD tried to do that the other day; I intervened and kept it in the lane that is designed to go straight. I wouldn’t say this is technically an intervention. I would just say it’s a move I wasn’t super comfortable with because I know people tend to get frustrated with those who cut the line. It’s an etiquette issue, and I didn’t want FSD to do it.

I also am not a huge fan of when there is no traffic in the right lane, yet it continues to cruise in the fast lane. I was taught to drive in the right lane and pass in the left lane. There are states where cruising in the left lane is illegal, and it sometimes tends to stay in the passing lane too long for my liking. I will turn on my right signal and get back into the correct lane.

These are totally disputable, and I am aware of that. Some people might not see a huge issue with these two examples, and I can understand that. My courtesy on the road differs from others, and that’s okay.

All in all, I’m pretty happy with FSD, and I will be continuing my Subscription after the three-month trial ends. In the coming days, I’ll be picking up a camera for FSD videos, and I’ll be able to embed examples of what I mean, as well as share full-length videos of my drive.

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Tesla gets price target increase on Wall Street, but it’s a head-scratcher

Delaney’s price target on Tesla shares went up to $395 from $300. Currently, Tesla is trading between $420 and $430, making the new price target from Goldman Sachs a bit of a head-scratcher.

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Credit: Cybertruck | X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a price target increase from a Wall Street analyst today, who noted in his report that the company’s shares could rise or fall based on its execution in robotics and autonomy.

However, the price target boost still fell below Tesla’s current trading levels.

Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs said in a note to investors today that Tesla has a significant opportunity to solidify itself as one of the stable and safe plays in the market if it can execute on its two key projects: humanoid robots and autonomy.

In the note, Delaney said:

“If Tesla can have [an] outsized share in areas such as humanoid robotics and autonomy, then there could be upside to our price target.”

Delaney’s price target on Tesla shares went up to $395 from $300. Currently, Tesla is trading between $420 and $430, making the new price target from Goldman Sachs a bit of a head-scratcher.

He went on to say that Tesla could also confront outside factors that would limit the stock’s ability to see growth, including competition and potentially its own lack of execution:

“…although if competition limits profits (as is happening with the ADAS market in China) or Tesla does not execute well, then there could be downside.”

The note is an interesting one because it seems to point out the blatantly obvious: if Tesla performs well, the stock will rise. If it doesn’t, the stock price will decline.

We discussed yesterday in an article that Tesla is one of the few stocks out there that does not seem to be influenced by financials or anything super concrete. Instead, it is more influenced by the narrative currently surrounding the company, rather than the technicals.

Tesla called ‘biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen’ by Yale associate dean

Tesla’s prowess in robotics and autonomy is strong. In robotics, it has a very good sentiment following its Optimus project, and it has shown steady improvement with subsequent versions of the robot with each release.

On the autonomy front, Tesla is expanding its Robotaxi platform in Austin every few weeks, and also has a sizeable geofence in the Bay Area. Its Full Self-Driving suite is among the most robust in the world and is incredibly useful and accurate.

The company can gain significant value if it continues to refine the platform and eventually rolls out a driverless or unsupervised version of the Full Self-Driving suite.

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Tesla addresses door handle complaints with simple engineering fix

“We’ll have a really good solution for that. I’m not worried about it.”

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Tesla Model S self-presenting door handle
Tesla Model S self-presenting door handle (Credit: TesBros)

Tesla is going to adjust one heavily scrutinized part of its vehicles after recent government agencies have launched probes into an issue stemming from complaints from owners.

Over the past few days, we have reported on the issues with Tesla’s door handle systems from both the Chinese and American governments.

In China, it dealt with the Model S, while the United States’ National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reported nine complaints from owners experiencing issues with 2021 Model Ys, as some said they had trouble entering their car after the 12V battery was low on power.

Bloomberg, in an interview with Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, asked whether the company planned to adjust the door handle design to alleviate any concerns that regulatory agencies might have.

Regarding the interior latch concerns in the United States:

  • Von Holzhausen said that, while a mechanical door release resolves this problem, Tesla plans to “combine the two” to help reduce stress in what he called “panic situations.”
  • He also added that “it’s in the cars now…The idea of combining the electronic and the manual one together in one button, I think, makes a lot of sense.” Franz said the muscle memory of reaching for the same button will be advantageous for children and anyone who is in an emergency.

Regarding the exterior door handle concerns in China:

  • Von Holzhausen said Tesla is reviewing the details of the regulation and confirmed, “We’ll have a really good solution for that. I’m not worried about it.”

The new Model Y already has emergency mechanical door release latches in the back, but combining them in future vehicles seems to be an ideal solution for other vehicles in Tesla’s lineup.

It will likely help Tesla avoid complaints from owners about not having an out in the event of a power outage or accident. It is a small engineering change that could be extremely valuable for future instances.

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