News
SpaceX’s first Starship hop on hold for historic Crew Dragon astronaut launch
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that he’s “redirected SpaceX’s priorities” to be almost entirely focused on Crew Dragon’s imminent astronaut launch debut, delaying Starship’s own hop test debut by at least a week or two as a result.
As of now, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft remains on track to lift off with NASA astronauts for the first time ever at 4:33 pm EDT (20:33 UTC) on Wednesday, May 27th. Known as Demonstration Mission 2 (Demo-2), it will be Crew Dragon’s second orbital launch, third launch on a Falcon 9 rocket, and – most importantly – the United States’ first domestic astronaut launch in almost a decade. Although NASA has still managed to maintain a continuous presence at the International Space Station over the last nine years by paying Russia’s space agency more than $4 billion for roughly six dozen seats on Soyuz spacecraft, Demo-2 will be NASA’s first astronaut launch from the US since June 2011.
Built entirely by SpaceX with funds awarded by NASA, the company’s Crew Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket will effectively singlehandedly return the United States’ ability to launch its own astronauts. Funded along with Boeing to ensure that NASA has two redundant spacecraft available, the latter company’s Starliner spacecraft has run into extensive delays after its orbital flight test (OFT) uncovered dangerously shoddy software and quality control. If Boeing is lucky, NASA might clear Starliner for its own crewed flight test (CFT, equivalent to Crew Dragon Demo-2) in the first half of 2021. As a result, a vast amount of pressure is on SpaceX’s shoulders to successfully launch astronauts for the first time ever just a few days from now.
Of course, SpaceX is not unilaterally focused on Crew Dragon or its inaugural astronaut launch, even if it might be the single most important mission in the company’s 18 years of operation. For a company as large as SpaceX, it’s simply not practical or valuable to have every single employee working on one project, while having too many people on a given project would also likely be to its detriment. Nevertheless, Musk – in an interview with Aviation Week’s Irene Klotz – stated that he’d redirected SpaceX’s priorities to be “very focused” on Demo-2.
Aside from Crew Dragon Demo-2, SpaceX operates a Starlink satellite factory near Seattle, builds and assembles all aspects of Falcon rockets and Dragon spacecraft at its Hawthorne, CA headquarters, tests those rockets and spacecraft in McGregor, Texas development facilities, and builds, tests, and flies Starship prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. (The company has many, many other operations around the US but the list above at least covers the bulk of the company’s workforce.)
Those myriad programs can’t simply freeze operations without catastrophically impacting future plans and schedules, meaning that Musk’s “redirection” is likely more an effort to keep the public focus on Crew Dragon, versus actually retasking thousands of employees to do work that probably doesn’t (but might) exist. Still, the company has definitely taken some real steps to stay laser-focused on Crew Dragon where practical.
Most notably, SpaceX has already indefinitely delayed its eight launch of 60 Starlink communications satellites, previously scheduled to lift off no earlier than (NET) May 19th. Now, Musk says that SpaceX has also decided to delay the first flight test of a full-scale Starship prototype until after Demo-2 successfully launches, implying that the company could have potentially launched Starship SN4 for the first time later this week.
In fact, SpaceX has three Starlink launches – including the mission delayed from May – now scheduled in June 2020, as well as Falcon 9’s second US military GPS III satellite launch at the end of the month. It’s unclear whether SpaceX will retest Starship SN4 after its off-nominal May 19th Raptor test or move directly into flight test operations, but its next South Texas test period has windows on May 28th, May 29th, and June 1st. In short, the next ~5 weeks are set to be a wild ride for SpaceX, to put it mildly.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
