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SpaceX Starship flight debut could happen this week, says Elon Musk
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that Starship’s full-scale flight debut could happen as early as this week if a suite of tests planned over the next few days goes according to plan.
The SpaceX leader also revealed a bit about the company’s plan to create its own custom steel alloy to build the best Starships possible – the first of which is already under construction. Beginning with Starship SN8, parts of which have already been spotted in work at SpaceX’s Boca Chica, Texas rocket factory, all future ships are expected to be built out of steel different than the 301 alloy used for all prior ships.
Of course, Starship SN8 is likely 2-4 weeks at best away from being ready for integrated testing. Instead, Starship SN5 is currently occupying SpaceX’s adjacent test stand and launch pad as teams work to prepare the rocket for several tests – potentially culminating in the first flight of a full-scale Starship.
For more than two weeks, SpaceX has been slowly preparing Starship SN5 for its first wet dress rehearsals and Raptor engine static fires. When a ground systems leak lead to a massive fuel-air explosion and Starship SN4’s destruction, it severely damaged the pad and required the construction of an entirely new launch mount.
Based on photos of the gradual rebuild taken by Boca Chica Village resident and photographer Mary (bocachicagal), SpaceX has visibly taken the opportunity to implement some significant changes (possibly upgrades) to the pad’s ground support equipment (GSE). Notably, the company has already installed a system meant to reclaim waste methane that would otherwise have to be burned at a flare stack, instead re-liquefying the gas a returning it to propellant storage tanks.
It’s unclear if SpaceX is attempting to onboard that new system as part of Starship SN5’s first major fueling tests, but the flare stack has not been active for weeks and the finicky nature of methane reclamation would certainly explain some of the 10+ days of delays.
On July 17th, after many day-by-day delays, SpaceX began Starship SN5’s first fueling test. The rocket appeared to be briefly pressurized with ambient-temperature gas (possibly methane and oxygen) but the test was quickly aborted. Another attempt on July 20th was also aborted after several hours with no frost (indicative of propellant loading). Finally, a third attempt on July 21st was canceled before it began, although a roadblock was briefly set up prior to the abort. Shortly after the abort, SpaceX published plans for another attempt at Starship SN5’s first WDR and static fire test on July 22nd with backup windows (8am-5pm CDT, UTC-5) on the 23rd and 24th.
First reported by NASASpaceflight.com, Elon Musk’s comment confirms their sourced information that Starship SN5’s flight debut could follow just a few days after a successful WDR and static fire. Given the sheer number of delays SN5’s test campaign has suffered, that’s far from guaranteed, but the ship certainly still has a shot at a hop test this weekend if things go perfectly over the next several days. Stay tuned for updates later today or tomorrow.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
