SpaceX
SpaceX’s Starship hopper steps towards first hop with several cautious tests
SpaceX’s team of South Texas engineers and technicians have dived into a program of critical pre-hop tests of the first assembled Starship prototype, a partial-fidelity vehicle – known as (Star)Hopper – meant to soon perform low-altitude, low-velocity hop tests powered by Raptor.
Despite a lack of official information is known and SpaceX’s general silence – even to local residents – about Starhopper’s testing, some barebones insight can be derived from what has and hasn’t been done or seen over the past seven days of testing, as well as five apparent wet dress rehearsals (WDRs). To verify the operational integrity of Starhopper and iron out best practices for what is effectively a one-off mobile test stand for Raptor, these WDRs (and one more active test) have seen the unusual prototype filled with some amount of liquid oxygen and methane propellant, taken to flight (hop?) pressures, and generally monitored closely to gather valuable telemetry and judge Starhopper’s condition and hop-readiness. Aside from Hopper, these tests also serve as a shakedown for complex pad and support facilities sprung up from a dirt pile in barely three months.
Fueling the beast
Starhopper’s five (ish) wet dress rehearsal tests have demonstrated an intriguing level of caution relative to the last few months of BFR program development. Depending on how much propellant SpaceX has been filled the vehicle with and how much of that propellant they are able to recycle after each attempt, each dress rehearsal could cost upwards of six figures (USD), while also putting the unusual steel structure through multiple stress cycles.
No official info has been provided beyond a brief indication that SpaceX means to static-fire Starhopper before transitioning to tethered hops, meaning that it’s quite difficult to determine what exactly the testing plan and schedule are. In other words, these ~5 WDR tests could have been the plan all along, or each test could be producing data that has lead launch engineers to scrub Raptor ignition attempts nominally planned at the end of each rehearsal. For an entirely new and unfamiliar design like Starhopper, it seems likely that at least one or two WDRs were planned before any attempt to static fire the hopper’s lone Raptor, although it could also be the case that – much like most SpaceX static fire attempts – the WDR was simply built in as a precursor to ignition, barring off-nominal telemetry.
The third and most visibly active test yet (above) occurred on March 25th and saw Starhopper briefly vent a cloud of gas from Raptor, with some viewers guessing that a Raptor preburner (partial ignition) test had been observed. It’s unclear whether this Raptor (SN02, the second produced) completed acceptance testing in McGregor, Texas on the way from California to Boca Chica. If not, then the caution on display in these WDR tests (i.e. no visible Raptor ignitions) could also be a side-effect of
The fidelity of Starhopper relative to its orbit-facing successors is also unclear. If the prototype’s structures, avionics, and plumbing are actually more indicative of the finished product than they appear, it’s possible that SpaceX tendency towards accepting the destruction of test hardware is in a bit more of a cautious state than usual, with a total loss of vehicle amounting to a significant technical setback and schedule delay. Based on the vehicle’s appearance and the apparent decision to entirely set aside the idea of installing a new fairing on Starhopper, it seems far more plausible that the prototype is more of a glorified mobile test stand for Raptor engines and Starship avionics (software) than anything else.
If Starhopper really can’t function as something more than a marginally mobile test stand for Raptor(s), then the value of actually hopping the craft could be quite minimal, perhaps offering useful data on Raptor’s control loop and behavior during flight operations. Still, CEO Elon Musk has stated several times that SpaceX has gotten good enough at the actual task of landing rockets vertically that it’s effectively a known quantity for Raptor and BFR, whereas the exotic atmospheric operations planned for Starship are the main uncertainty for successful recoveries.
Simultaneously, SpaceX is building the first orbital-class Starship prototype just a few thousand feet away from Starhopper’s new roost, utilizing stainless steel sheets almost three times thinner than the quarter-inch-thick steel the first prototype was built out of. It’s likely that Starhopper’s career will thus end up being rather short, given that the completion of the first near-final Starship would further minimize the low-fidelity hopper’s utility. If it’s actually meant to reach orbit, the newest Starship prototype will require the tripod fins and canard wings shown in SpaceX’s latest renders in order to safely land for future test flights, while Starhopper appears to be far too heavy and simplistic to warrant the expensive and time-consuming task of outfitting it with aerodynamic control surfaces and a new nose cone capable of surviving the associated forces.
While additional testing may be done on Friday, March 29th, it appears that the next attempts for the first static fire (and hop tests) will begin next week (likely Monday) – SpaceX is unlikely to test on weekends due to the potential disruption it could cause for beach-going locals.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX’s amended S-1 is sparking a major Tesla merger conversation
A single line in SpaceX’s amended S-1 just sent Tesla stock down 5% in one day.
A single line buried in SpaceX’s amended S-1 filing is doing more to move Tesla’s stock price than anything Tesla itself has announced in months. The clause, disclosed as SpaceX prepares for what could be the largest IPO in Wall Street history, states that the company “may issue a significant amount of equity in connection with future transactions.” While this may be seen as boilerplate language in S-1 filings, the historical ties between SpaceX and Tesla, and with Elon Musk reportedly discussing a possible merger with close colleagues, investors are interpreting it as something closer to a signal.
The concern among institutional investors like Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, pointed directly to the amended filing on X, saying it “strongly suggests more SPCX equity will be issued,” which could potentially be used to acquire Tesla. He estimated such a deal could be 28% dilutive to Tesla shareholders since SpaceX would likely command a significantly higher valuation multiple. Black added that institutional investors he knows hate the idea of a combination because they prefer pure plays over conglomerates, which he said “nearly always gravitate to the lowest common multiple.”
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
The bull case runs the math differently. Tesla influencer and retail shareholder advocate AleXandra Merz pushed back on what she called a widespread misunderstanding of how merger-of-equals deals actually work. Rather than simply splitting the difference between two market caps, a merger exchange ratio is negotiated based on relative fair market values, meaning the lower valued company typically sees its stock reprice upward toward the deal value.
Under her model, SpaceX enters at a $2.5 trillion valuation and Tesla at $1.6 trillion, producing a combined entity worth $4.1 trillion split evenly between both shareholder groups. That implies Tesla’s side of the deal would be valued at $2.05 trillion, a gain of roughly $450 billion from its current market cap. She cited Dow-DuPont and CBS-Viacom as historical examples of how markets reprice both companies toward the announced exchange ratio after a deal is unveiled.
What does a Merger of Equals mean to Elon’s compensation packages?
Well, it changes everything.
Enjoy https://t.co/uekCldyITw pic.twitter.com/kolq1C9qTu
— AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 (@TeslaBoomerMama) June 1, 2026
The SpaceX S-1 amendments also revealed just how much financial infrastructure already binds the two companies together. As Teslarati has reported, SpaceX purchased $697 million in Tesla Megapacks, $131 million in Cybertrucks, and the two companies have shared supply chain resources, and semiconductor fabrication plans since well before any merger conversation became public. A retail poll by Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt is finding that 36% of respondents do not plan to buy SpaceX shares at IPO and 15.3% saying their decision depends on the valuation.
Do you plan on buying @SpaceX stock at its IPO?
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 1, 2026
Whether the merger happens or not, the amended filing is seemingly moving markets and sharpened a debate that is no longer theoretical. SpaceX is weeks away from trading publicly, and Tesla shareholders are now watching every word of every filing for clues about what Musk plans to do next.
Elon Musk has firmly denied recent media reports suggesting that SpaceX has reduced its target valuation for an upcoming initial public offering.
The denial came directly from the SpaceX and Tesla frontman on his social media platform X, where he responded with a single word, “False,” to a post from ZeroHedge that cited Bloomberg sources.
This swift rebuttal underscores Musk’s ongoing effort to manage speculation surrounding one of the most anticipated market debuts in recent history.
False
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2026
According to the disputed reports, SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion from previous ambitions exceeding $2 trillion.
The claims emerged amid growing anticipation for the company’s confidential S-1 filing, which positions it for a potential public listing as early as June.
Some had pointed to strong revenue growth, particularly from the Starlink satellite internet service, which contributed heavily to the firm’s 2025 figures of $18.7 billion. Yet challenges persist in other areas, including substantial investments and losses tied to ambitious projects like Starship development and artificial intelligence initiatives, which plan to make life multiplanetary eventually.
Musk’s response highlights a pattern in which he actively counters what he views as inaccurate portrayals of his companies’ trajectories.
SpaceX, already valued privately at extraordinary levels, stands as a cornerstone of Musk’s empire alongside Tesla and xAI. The entrepreneur has long emphasized the transformative potential of reusable rockets and global broadband access, factors that fuel investor enthusiasm despite operational hurdles.
By rejecting the valuation downgrade narrative, Musk signals confidence in SpaceX’s fundamentals and its readiness for public markets on terms favorable to its long-term vision. People have been waiting a very long time to invest in SpaceX, and the valuation, as well as the introductory share price, is not going to need adjusting.
They’ll have plenty of suitors.
This episode reflects broader dynamics in the technology sector, where rumors often swirl around high-profile entities. Musk’s direct engagement with media narratives serves to maintain transparency and control the narrative around his ventures.
As SpaceX prepares for greater scrutiny in public markets, the founder’s denial reinforces optimism about its prospects. Supporters argue that the company’s innovative edge positions it for enduring success, far beyond short-term valuation debates. With the denial now public, attention turns to forthcoming regulatory filings that could provide clearer insights into SpaceX’s strategy and financial health.
The coming weeks promise to reveal more about how SpaceX will transition into a publicly traded powerhouse.
Elon Musk
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Tesla and SpaceX may be closer to merging than Wall Street or either company is admitting.
Elon Musk has reportedly discussed merging Tesla and SpaceX with people close to him, according to CNBC, which cited sources familiar with the conversation. Tesla employees have long expected such a transaction and the topic is openly discussed internally, according to internal sources. With SpaceX is days away from kicking off its Wall Street roadshow for what could be the largest IPO in market history, this would be the first time the company will have public market currency to execute a stock-for-stock deal with Tesla.
The financial logic for a merger would make sense. A combined SpaceX and Tesla would create a conglomerate spanning rockets, satellites, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and energy storage valued at roughly $3.35 trillion to $3.6 trillion based on SpaceX’s IPO target range and Tesla’s current market capitalization. The two companies are already more intertwined than most people realize. SpaceX bought $697 million worth of Tesla Megapack systems for xAI data centers and $131 million worth of Cybertrucks. Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI, which subsequently merged with SpaceX. Past transactions also include Tesla selling solar equipment and parts to SpaceX, and SpaceX helping with Cybertruck materials.
Will Tesla join the fold? Predicting a triple merger with SpaceX and xAI
Musk himself signaled where this was heading in November 2025 when he posted on X, “My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence.” Tesla and SpaceX announced a joint semiconductor fabrication facility in Austin called Terafab on the Gigafactory Texas campus, covering two advanced chip factories, with one serving Tesla’s AI needs for vehicles and Optimus robots, the other targeting space-based data centers under SpaceX’s infrastructure vision.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives places the probability of a merger at 80% to 90% with a target completion in the first half of 2027. The mechanics of a deal became possible the moment SpaceX filed its S-1. Legal experts said a merger likely would not spark antitrust issues but would raise concerns among shareholders in each company, with questions around which company would be the parent, how a stock swap would take place, and who determines the appropriate price. Musk holds about 20% of Tesla’s equity but controls 85.1% of SpaceX’s voting power through a super-voting share class, meaning he would largely be negotiating the terms with himself.
Not everyone is convinced the timing is imminent. Traders on Kalshi place only 33% odds that a merger will happen before May 2027. The more immediate concern for Tesla shareholders is whether the SpaceX IPO pulls capital and Musk’s attention away from Tesla before any merger consolidates the upside for both.
What is clear is that the structural groundwork is already being laid. The Terafab announcement, the xAI merger, the shared supply chain, the cross-company balance sheet transactions, and now the IPO all point in the same direction. Whether the merger follows in 2027 or later, the two companies are already operating more like divisions of a single entity than independent competitors.
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