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SpaceX Starship Mk1’s most important tests yet could begin just hours from now
SpaceX’s South Texas Starship Mk1 prototype is on the verge of kicking off a critical period of ground tests, ranging from tank pressurization and propellant loading to the rocket’s first triple-Raptor engine static fire. The campaign could begin soon – perhaps as soon as later today, in fact.
Over the last two weeks, SpaceX’s South Texas team has faced bad winter weather, among the many other challenges associated with building giant rockets almost entirely out in the elements. Nevertheless, company technicians and engineers continue to check off task after task along the path towards Starship Mk1 completion, the next-generation launch vehicle’s first full-scale, high-fidelity prototype.
In the month of November alone, SpaceX has (re)installed Starship Mk1’s nose and aft section flaps (this time outfitted with heavy-duty actuator mechanisms), nearly completed the process of routing and integrating the vehicle’s external liquid and gas plumbing, and more or less finished a barebones launch mount. Starship Mk1 was snugly attached atop that launch mount around the start of the month and workers have continuously swarmed around the rocket and pad in scissor and boom lifts and ever since, closing out umbilical connections, insulating cryogenic propellant pipes, and much, much more.
Within the last week or so, SpaceX has apparently also begun the process of expanding its presence around its existing Boca Chica pad facilities, where Starship Mk1 is preparing for testing. The purpose of that expansion is unclear, but the first phase – extending the existing square landing pad – is essentially complete and will presumably give Starship Mk1 a better chance of successfully landing in the event that its first skydiver-style landing attempt is not as accurate as predicted.
Based on official renders/mockups in SpaceX’s updated 2019 launch animation, it could also eventually become the foundation of a much more permanent integration and processing hangar, much like the hangars that SpaceX uses to integrate Falcon 9 and Heavy at its Florida and California launch sites. It could even be the foundation for a dramatically larger Super Heavy-class launch mount and water-cooled flame deflector like the one shown in that same video. For now, Starship Mk1 will begin testing (and presumably first flights) off of a minimal steel mount that was built up from almost nothing in barely two months.
No nose, no problem?
As previously discussed on Teslarati, the testing Starship Mk1 is preparing for could take a number of routes to completion, but all of those routes will likely involve several main events. First, SpaceX may or may not decide to do a preliminary tank proof test with neutral (i.e. non-explosive) liquid nitrogen, which would verify the structural integrity and determine if there are leaks in what is essentially a building-sized pressure vessel.
SpaceX may instead skip that – it would require a vast and unwieldy quantity of liquid nitrogen – and move directly into the first cryogenic propellant loading test, in which SpaceX would attempt to fully fill Starship’s tanks with liquid oxygen and liquid methane. Assuming Starship Mk1 is 1:1 scale, that could involve as much as 1200 metric tons (2,650,000 lbs) of propellant, more than twice as much fuel as a Falcon 9.
In other words, Starship’s inaugural propellant loading attempt will be almost at the same scale as Falcon Heavy’s, which took several attempts, broke some hardware, and was a major learning experience and challenge on its own. A structural failure or explosion could be absolutely catastrophic, as those ~1200 tons of fuel and oxidizer could act as a massive bomb under the right conditions.
According to road closure notices published by Cameron County, SpaceX is expected to begin operations that require road closures as early as November 18th from noon to 8 pm CST, with backups on the 19th and 20th. Another window opens on the 25th at the same time, with backups on the 26th and 27th. To be clear, there is no official word that SpaceX actually means to start cryogenic ground testing with Starship Mk1 today, but it’s not necessarily out of the question.
Whenever SpaceX does decide to start Starship Mk1 ground testing, it will be an immensely important milestone, signifying the start of the period that will essentially determine whether SpaceX’s deeply unusual manufacturing methods can build a structurally-sound, high-performance rocket prototype for pennies on the dollar. In simple terms, if Starship Mk1 behaves as planned, commercial spaceflight may never be the same.
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Despite many recent rumors and various reports, Elon Musk confirmed today that SpaceX is not developing a phone based on Starlink, not once, but twice.
Today’s report from Reuters cited people familiar with the matter and stated internal discussions have seen SpaceX executives mulling the idea of building a mobile device that would connect directly to the Starlink satellite constellation.
Musk did state in late January that SpaceX developing a phone was “not out of the question at some point.” However, He also said it would have to be a major difference from current phones, and would be optimized “purely for running max performance/watt neural nets.”
Not out of the question at some point. It would be a very different device than current phones. Optimized purely for running max performance/watt neural nets.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 30, 2026
While Musk said it was not out of the question “at some point,” that does not mean it is currently a project SpaceX is working on. The CEO reaffirmed this point twice on X this afternoon.
Musk said, “Reuters lies relentlessly,” in one post. In the next, he explicitly stated, “We are not developing a phone.”
Reuters lies relentlessly
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 5, 2026
We are not developing a phone
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 5, 2026
Musk has basically always maintained that SpaceX has too many things going on, denying that a phone would be in the realm of upcoming projects. There are too many things in the works for Musk’s space exploration company, most notably the recent merger with xAI.
SpaceX officially acquires xAI, merging rockets with AI expertise
A Starlink phone would be an excellent idea, especially considering that SpaceX operates 9,500 satellites, serving over 9 million users worldwide. 650 of those satellites are dedicated to the company’s direct-to-device initiative, which provides cellular coverage on a global scale.
Nevertheless, there is the potential that the Starlink phone eventually become a project SpaceX works on. However, it is not currently in the scope of what the company needs to develop, so things are more focused on that as of right now.
Tesla has added a notable improvement to its Dashcam feature after complaints from owners have pushed the company to make a drastic change.
Perhaps one of the biggest frustrations that Tesla owners have communicated regarding the Dashcam feature is the lack of ability to retain any more than 60 minutes of driving footage before it is overwritten.
It does not matter what size USB jump drive is plugged into the vehicle. 60 minutes is all it will hold until new footage takes over the old. This can cause some issues, especially if you were saving an impressive clip of Full Self-Driving or an incident on the road, which could be lost if new footage was recorded.
This has now been changed, as Tesla has shown in the Release Notes for an upcoming Software Update in China. It will likely expand to the U.S. market in the coming weeks, and was first noticed by NotaTeslaApp.
The release notes state:
“Dashcam Dynamic Recording Duration – The dashcam dynamically adjusts the recording duration based on the available storage capacity of the connected USB drive. For example, with a 128 GB USB drive, the maximum recording duration is approximately 3 hours; with a 1 TB or larger USB drive, it can reach up to 24 hours. This ensures that as much video as possible is retained for review before it gets overwritten.”
Tesla Adds Dynamic Recording
Instead of having a 60-minute cap, the new system will now go off the memory in the USB drive. This means with:
- 128 GB Jump Drive – Up to Three Hours of Rolling Footage
- 1TB Jump Drive – Up to 24 Hours of Rolling Footage
This is dependent on the amount of storage available on the jump drive, meaning that if there are other things saved on it, it will take away from the amount of footage that can be retained.
While the feature is just now making its way to employees in China, it will likely be at least several weeks before it makes its way to the U.S., but owners should definitely expect it in the coming months.
It will be a welcome feature, especially as there will now be more customization to the number of clips and their duration that can be stored.
With the news of a merger between SpaceX and xAI being confirmed earlier this week by CEO Elon Musk directly, the first moves of an umbrella company that combines all of the serial tech entrepreneur’s companies have been established.
The move aims to combine SpaceX’s prowess in launches with xAI’s expanding vision in artificial intelligence, as Musk has detailed the need for space-based data centers that will require massive amounts of energy to operate.
It has always been in the plans to bring Musk’s companies together under one umbrella.
“My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending toward convergence,” Musk said in November. With SpaceX and xAI moving together, many are questioning when Tesla will be next. Analysts believe it is a no-brainer.
SpaceX officially acquires xAI, merging rockets with AI expertise
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note earlier this week that there is a “growing chance” Tesla could be merged in some form with the new conglomeration over the next 12 to 18 months.
“In our view, there is a growing chance that Tesla will eventually be merged in some form into SpaceX/xAI over time. The viewis this growing AI ecosystem will focus on Space and Earth together… and Musk will look to combine forces,” Ives said.
Let’s take a look at the potential.
The Case for Synergies – Building the Ultimate AI Ecosystem
A triple merger would create a unified “Musk Trinity,” blending Tesla’s physical AI with Robotaxi, Optimus, and Full Self-Driving, SpaceX’s orbital infrastructure through Starlink and potential space-based computer, and xAI’s advanced models, including Grok.
This could accelerate real-world AI applications, more specifically, ones like using satellite networks for global autonomy, or even powering massive training through solar-optimized orbital data centers.
The FCC welcomes and now seeks comment on the SpaceX application for Orbital Data Centers.
The proposed system would serve as a first step towards becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization and serve other purposes, according to the applicant. pic.twitter.com/TDnUPuz9w7
— Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC) February 4, 2026
This would position the entity, which could ultimately be labeled “X,” as a leader in multiplanetary AI-native tech.
It would impact every level of Musk’s AI-based vision for the future, from passenger use to complex AI training models.
Financial and Structural Incentives — and Risks
xAI’s high cash burn rate is now backed by SpaceX’s massive valuation boost, and Tesla joining the merger would help the company gain access to private funding channels, avoiding dilution in a public-heavy structure.
The deal makes sense from a capital standpoint, as it is an advantage for each company in its own specific way, addressing specific needs.
Because xAI is spending money at an accelerating rate due to its massive compute needs, SpaceX provides a bit of a “lifeline” by redirecting its growing cash flows toward AI ambitions without the need for constant external fundraising.
Additionally, Tesla’s recent $2 billion investment in xAI also ties in, as its own heavy CapEx for Dojo supercomputers, Robotaxis, and Optimus could potentially be streamlined.
Musk’s stake in Tesla and SpaceX, after the xAI merger, is also uneven. His ownership in Tesla equates to about 13 percent, only increasing as he achieves each tranche of his most recent compensation package. Meanwhile, he owns about 43 percent of the private SpaceX.
A triple merger between the three companies could boost his ownership in the combined entity to around 26 percent. This would give Musk what he wants: stronger voting power and alignment across his ventures.
It could also be a potential facilitator in private-to-public transitions, as a reverse merger structure to take SpaceX public indirectly via Tesla could be used. This avoids any IPO scrutiny while accessing the public markets’ liquidity.
Timeline and Triggers for a Public Announcement
As previously mentioned, Ives believes a 12-18 month timeline is realistic, fueled by Musk’s repeated hints at convergence between his three companies. Additionally, the recent xAI investment by Tesla only points toward the increased potential for a conglomeration.
Of course, there is speculation that the merger could happen in the shorter term, before June 30 of this year, which is a legitimate possibility. While this possibility exists but remains at low probability, especially when driven by rapid AI/space momentum, longer horizons, like 2027 or later, allow for key milestones like Tesla’s Robotaxi rollout and Cybercab ramp-up, Optimus scaling, or regulatory clarity under a favorable administration.
Credit: Grok Imagine
The sequencing matters: SpaceX-xAI merger as “step one” toward a unified stack, with a potential SpaceX IPO setting a valuation benchmark before any Tesla tie-up.
Full triple convergence could follow if synergies prove out.
Prediction markets are also a reasonable thing to look at, just to get an idea of where people are putting their money. Polymarket, for example, sits at between a 12 and 24 percent chance that a Tesla-SpaceX merger is officially announced before June 30, 2026.
Looking Ahead
The SpaceX-xAI merger is not your typical corporate shuffle. Instead, it’s the clearest signal yet that Musk is architecting a unified “Muskonomy” where AI, space infrastructure, and real-world robotics converge to solve humanity’s biggest challenges.
Yet the path is fraught with execution risks that could turn this visionary upside into a major value trap. Valuation mismatches remain at the forefront of this skepticism: Tesla’s public multiples are unlike any company ever, with many believing they are “stretched.” On the other hand, SpaceX-xAI’s private “marked-to-muth” pricing hinges on unproven synergies and lofty projects, especially orbital data centers and all of the things Musk and Co. will have to figure out along the way.
Ultimately, the entire thing relies on a high-conviction bet on Musk’s ability to execute at scale. The bullish case is transformative: a vertically integrated AI-space-robotics giant accelerates humanity toward abundance and multi-planetary civilization faster than any siloed company could.
Elon Musk confirms SpaceX is not developing a phone
Tesla adds notable improvement to Dashcam feature
