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SpaceX Starship Mk1’s most important tests yet could begin just hours from now
SpaceX’s South Texas Starship Mk1 prototype is on the verge of kicking off a critical period of ground tests, ranging from tank pressurization and propellant loading to the rocket’s first triple-Raptor engine static fire. The campaign could begin soon – perhaps as soon as later today, in fact.
Over the last two weeks, SpaceX’s South Texas team has faced bad winter weather, among the many other challenges associated with building giant rockets almost entirely out in the elements. Nevertheless, company technicians and engineers continue to check off task after task along the path towards Starship Mk1 completion, the next-generation launch vehicle’s first full-scale, high-fidelity prototype.
In the month of November alone, SpaceX has (re)installed Starship Mk1’s nose and aft section flaps (this time outfitted with heavy-duty actuator mechanisms), nearly completed the process of routing and integrating the vehicle’s external liquid and gas plumbing, and more or less finished a barebones launch mount. Starship Mk1 was snugly attached atop that launch mount around the start of the month and workers have continuously swarmed around the rocket and pad in scissor and boom lifts and ever since, closing out umbilical connections, insulating cryogenic propellant pipes, and much, much more.
Within the last week or so, SpaceX has apparently also begun the process of expanding its presence around its existing Boca Chica pad facilities, where Starship Mk1 is preparing for testing. The purpose of that expansion is unclear, but the first phase – extending the existing square landing pad – is essentially complete and will presumably give Starship Mk1 a better chance of successfully landing in the event that its first skydiver-style landing attempt is not as accurate as predicted.
Based on official renders/mockups in SpaceX’s updated 2019 launch animation, it could also eventually become the foundation of a much more permanent integration and processing hangar, much like the hangars that SpaceX uses to integrate Falcon 9 and Heavy at its Florida and California launch sites. It could even be the foundation for a dramatically larger Super Heavy-class launch mount and water-cooled flame deflector like the one shown in that same video. For now, Starship Mk1 will begin testing (and presumably first flights) off of a minimal steel mount that was built up from almost nothing in barely two months.
No nose, no problem?
As previously discussed on Teslarati, the testing Starship Mk1 is preparing for could take a number of routes to completion, but all of those routes will likely involve several main events. First, SpaceX may or may not decide to do a preliminary tank proof test with neutral (i.e. non-explosive) liquid nitrogen, which would verify the structural integrity and determine if there are leaks in what is essentially a building-sized pressure vessel.
SpaceX may instead skip that – it would require a vast and unwieldy quantity of liquid nitrogen – and move directly into the first cryogenic propellant loading test, in which SpaceX would attempt to fully fill Starship’s tanks with liquid oxygen and liquid methane. Assuming Starship Mk1 is 1:1 scale, that could involve as much as 1200 metric tons (2,650,000 lbs) of propellant, more than twice as much fuel as a Falcon 9.
In other words, Starship’s inaugural propellant loading attempt will be almost at the same scale as Falcon Heavy’s, which took several attempts, broke some hardware, and was a major learning experience and challenge on its own. A structural failure or explosion could be absolutely catastrophic, as those ~1200 tons of fuel and oxidizer could act as a massive bomb under the right conditions.
According to road closure notices published by Cameron County, SpaceX is expected to begin operations that require road closures as early as November 18th from noon to 8 pm CST, with backups on the 19th and 20th. Another window opens on the 25th at the same time, with backups on the 26th and 27th. To be clear, there is no official word that SpaceX actually means to start cryogenic ground testing with Starship Mk1 today, but it’s not necessarily out of the question.
Whenever SpaceX does decide to start Starship Mk1 ground testing, it will be an immensely important milestone, signifying the start of the period that will essentially determine whether SpaceX’s deeply unusual manufacturing methods can build a structurally-sound, high-performance rocket prototype for pennies on the dollar. In simple terms, if Starship Mk1 behaves as planned, commercial spaceflight may never be the same.
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Tesla analyst Gary Black of The Future Fund claims that the company is making a big mistake getting rid of the Model S and Model X. Instead, he believes another vehicle within the company’s lineup should be discontinued: the Cybertruck.
Black divested The Future Fund from all Tesla holdings last year, but he still covers the stock as an analyst as it falls in the technology and autonomy sectors, which he covers.
In a new comment on Thursday, Black said the Cybertruck should be the vehicle Tesla gets rid of due to the negatives it has drawn to the company.
The Cybertruck is also selling in an underwhelming fashion considering the production capacity Tesla has set aside for it. It’s worth noting it is still the best-selling electric pickup on the market, and it has outlasted other EV truck projects as other manufacturers are receding their efforts.
Black said:
“IMHO it’s a mistake to keep Tesla Cybertruck which has negative brand equity and sold 10,000 units last year, and discontinue S/X which have strong repeat brand loyalty and together sold 30K units and are highly profitable. Why not discontinue CT and covert S/X to be fully autonomous?”
IMHO it’s a mistake to keep $TSLA Cybertruck which has negative brand equity and sold 10,000 units last year, and discontinue S/X which have strong repeat brand loyalty and together sold 30K units and are highly profitable. Why not discontinue CT and covert S/X to be fully…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 29, 2026
On Wednesday, CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla planned to transition Model S and Model X production lines at the Fremont Factory to handle manufacturing efforts of the Optimus Gen 3 robot.
Musk said that it was time to wind down the S and X programs “with an honorable discharge,” also noting that the two cars are not major contributors to Tesla’s mission any longer, as its automotive division is more focused on autonomy, which will be handled by Model 3, Model Y, and Cybercab.
Tesla begins Cybertruck deliveries in a new region for the first time
The news has drawn conflicting perspectives, with many Tesla fans upset about the decision, especially as it ends the production of the largest car in the company’s lineup. Tesla’s focus is on smaller ride-sharing vehicles, especially as the vast majority of rides consist of two or fewer passengers.
The S and X do not fit in these plans.
Nevertheless, the Cybertruck fits in Tesla’s future plans. Musk said the pickup will be needed for the transportation of local goods. Musk also said Cybertruck would be transitioned to an autonomous line.
In a groundbreaking new report from Reuters, SpaceX is reportedly discussing merger possibilities with xAI ahead of the space exploration company’s plans to IPO later this year, in what would be a blockbuster move.
The outlet said it would combine rockets and Starlink satellites, as well as the X social media platform and AI project Grok under one roof. The report cites “a person briefed on the matter and two recent company filings seen by Reuters.”
Musk, nor SpaceX or xAI, have commented on the report, so, as of now, it is unconfirmed.
With that being said, the proposed merger would bring shares of xAI in exchange for shares of SpaceX. Both companies were registered in Nevada to expedite the transaction, according to the report.
On January 21, both entities were registered in Nevada. The report continues:
“One of them, a limited liability company, lists SpaceX and Bret Johnsen, the company’s chief financial officer, as managing members, while the other lists Johnsen as the company’s only officer, the filings show.”
The source also stated that some xAI executives could be given the option to receive cash in lieu of SpaceX stock. No agreement has been reached, nothing has been signed, and the timing and structure, as well as other important details, have not been finalized.
SpaceX is valued at $800 billion and is the most valuable privately held company, while xAI is valued at $230 billion as of November. SpaceX could be going public later this year, as Musk has said as recently as December that the company would offer its stock publicly.
The plans could help move along plans for large-scale data centers in space, something Musk has discussed on several occasions over the past few months.
At the World Economic Forum last week, Musk said:
“It’s a no-brainer for building solar-powered AI data centers in space, because as I mentioned, it’s also very cold in space. The net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space and that will be true within two to three years, three at the latest.”
He also said on X that “the most important thing in the next 3-4 years is data centers in space.”
If the report is true and the two companies end up coming together, it would not be the first time Musk’s companies have ended up coming together. He used Tesla stock to purchase SolarCity back in 2016. Last year, X became part of xAI in a share swap.
Tesla has announced it has hit a major milestone with Full Self-Driving subscriptions, shortly after it said it would exclusively offer the suite without the option to purchase it outright.
Tesla announced on Wednesday during its Q4 Earnings Call for 2025 that it had officially eclipsed the one million subscription mark for its Full Self-Driving suite. This represented a 38 percent increase year-over-year.
This is up from the roughly 800,000 active subscriptions it reported last year. The company has seen significant increases in FSD adoption over the past few years, as in 2021, it reported just 400,000. In 2022, it was up to 500,000 and, one year later, it had eclipsed 600,000.
NEWS: For the first time, Tesla has revealed how many people are subscribed or have purchased FSD (Supervised).
Active FSD Subscriptions:
• 2025: 1.1 million
• 2024: 800K
• 2023: 600K
• 2022: 500K
• 2021: 400K pic.twitter.com/KVtnyANWcs— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) January 28, 2026
In mid-January, CEO Elon Musk announced that the company would transition away from giving the option to purchase the Full Self-Driving suite outright, opting for the subscription program exclusively.
Musk said on X:
“Tesla will stop selling FSD after Feb 14. FSD will only be available as a monthly subscription thereafter.”
The move intends to streamline the Full Self-Driving purchase option, and gives Tesla more control over its revenue, and closes off the ability to buy it outright for a bargain when Musk has said its value could be close to $100,000 when it reaches full autonomy.
It also caters to Musk’s newest compensation package. One tranche requires Tesla to achieve 10 million active FSD subscriptions, and now that it has reached one million, it is already seeing some growth.
The strategy that Tesla will use to achieve this lofty goal is still under wraps. The most ideal solution would be to offer a less expensive version of the suite, which is not likely considering the company is increasing its capabilities, and it is becoming more robust.
Tesla is shifting FSD to a subscription-only model, confirms Elon Musk
Currently, Tesla’s FSD subscription price is $99 per month, but Musk said this price will increase, which seems counterintuitive to its goal of increasing the take rate. With that being said, it will be interesting to see what Tesla does to navigate growth while offering a robust FSD suite.
Tesla analyst claims another vehicle, not Model S and X, should be discontinued
SpaceX reportedly discussing merger with xAI ahead of blockbuster IPO
