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SpaceX bid Starship to launch NASA cubesat constellation

SpaceX appears to have narrowly lost a contract to launch a constellation of NASA cubesats with Starship and Super Heavy. (SpaceX)

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First discussed by SpaceNews, Teslarati can confirm that the mystery launch vehicle SpaceX bid to launch a tiny NASA satellite constellation was none other than Starship – a large, next-generation rocket still deep in development.

Back on February 26th, the space agency announced that it had awarded small rocket startup Astra $7.95 million to launch six small science satellites on three separate Rocket 3.0 flights. Known as TROPICS, NASA says the mini-constellation is designed to monitor tropical storms with a set of microwave sounding instruments. As a constellation, TROPICS will have an unprecedented revisit rate as low as 30 minutes, meaning that weather events could be observed as many as 48 times per day to improve forecasts and advance meteorology. All told, the MIT team estimates a total mission cost of $32 million and the six-satellite TROPICS constellation is expected to weigh no more than 56 kg (~124 lb).

The TROPICS mission is comprised of six elongated-shoebox-sized cubesats fitted with microwave spectrometers. Each satellite weighs around 4 kg (9 lb). (MIT)

In a routine source selection statement published by NASA on March 11th, reporter Jeff Foust was first to catch on to some oddities included in the brief. Notably, SpaceX was one of four companies to submit a viable proposal and enter the competition – not exactly shocking behavior. However, in the statement, the NASA contracting officer included information heavily implying that SpaceX didn’t propose to launch TROPICS on its proven workhorse Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy rockets.

As Foust went on to note, the “weaknesses” raised to explain why SpaceX wasn’t chosen (namely an unproven, unlicensed launch vehicle with low schedule certainty) meshed suspiciously well with SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket. A source familiar with NASA launch procurement has now confirmed to Teslarati that SpaceX did, in fact, bid Starship to launch the TROPICS constellation.

Starship is currently in the early to middle stages of development, only recently graduated beyond short hop tests, and has yet to secure an orbital launch license from the FAA. While SpaceX CEO Elon Musk recently confirmed the company’s ambition to launch Starship on its first orbital mission(s) as early as July 2021, it’s safe to say that there is a huge amount of uncertainty in that schedule.

Starship only just achieved its first intact landing after a high-altitude launch and still exploded several minutes after touchdown. (SpaceX)
Cargo Starship doesn’t exist at this point in time and TROPICS would be akin to a drop in the bucket of its cavernous payload fairing. (SpaceX)

On the scale of Starship’s payload target of 100 metric tons to low Earth orbit (LEO), the TROPICS constellation is quite literally a rounding error. Assuming three separate launches are a fundamental requirement for the constellation, each Starship – a rocket substantially larger than a 737 passenger jet – would be carrying the equivalent of a single briefcase containing two shoebox-sized satellites.

While the source was unable to provide the specific price of the offer, they confirmed that SpaceX bid Starship and Super Heavy – not a single-stage-to-orbit Starship configuration as some later speculated. It’s still unclear if SpaceX intended to perform three separate launches or if Starship would have been capable of delivering the entire constellation in a single launch with the huge performance margins offer by such a tiny payload.

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Astra narrowly missed orbit on Rocket 3’s third test flight and the company’s fifth test launch overall.

Notably, NASA’s selection statement revealed that the price of SpaceX’s Starship launch proposal was more expensive than Astra’s ~$8M offering but less expensive than a Rocket Lab proposal utilizing Electron. From a purely speculative angle, assuming three launches were a necessity, Rocket Lab’s bid would have been around $25M (Electron sells for around $7.5M), leaving SpaceX around $15-20M – not far off a $5M Starship launch cost target floated by company executives over the last few years.

Ultimately, SpaceX did lose out, but the fact that NASA considered a Starship proposal at all is impressive in its own right. TROPICS is scheduled to launch out of Kwajelein Atoll on three separate Astra Rocket 3 vehicles between January and July 2022

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Investor's Corner

Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake

The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker. 

Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

Institutional investors and TSLA

Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.

The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.

Recent insider sales

Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.

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Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.

@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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Tesla rolls out fresh Supercharger pricing strategy to more locations

Live Pricing aimed to resolve some of the shortcomings of the off-peak and on-peak system, aiming to keep prices low and base them on current utilization instead of a set time when prices change.

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tesla supercharger
Credit: Tesla

Tesla has rolled out a fresh Supercharger pricing strategy to more locations, as it confirmed it has added 550 additional sites in the United States to its “Live Pricing” strategy.

Live Pricing for Superchargers launched back in May, and was the company’s latest strategy to keep charging your EV cheap, affordable, and easy to understand.

Tesla has adjusted its pricing strategy at Superchargers several times over the past few years, with the most notable being the 2020 introduction of off-peak and on-peak Supercharging rates.

Live Pricing aimed to resolve some of the shortcomings of the off-peak and on-peak system, aiming to keep prices low and base them on current utilization instead of a set time when prices change.

Tesla explained the program when it launched:

“We are piloting on-peak and off-peak pricing based on live Supercharger utilization rather than estimations. The average price remains unchanged, but this live feedback loop improves accuracy. This corrects off-peak pricing during times of congestion, or on-peak pricing when Superchargers are plentiful. You’ll always see the price before your session begins, and prices do not change mid-session. A small-scale pilot is launching at 10 sites and will expand based on feedback and success.”

The initial rollout only included Superchargers in California, but it was not all of them, only a handful instead. Tesla was attempting to launch it in a very controlled manner by using a Pilot Program that would iron out all the early bugs and potential issues it might run into.

However, the company expanded the program by launching it at an additional 550 sites in California, New Jersey, New York, Florida, and Illinois:

The price you pay is locked in when you plug in, so if the Supercharger station you are charging at becomes more crowded and the program bumps up the rates because of high utilization rates, you will still receive the cheaper price that was enabled when you arrived.

@teslarati With a pedestrian in the crosswalk, Tesla Full Self-Driving shows off its courtesy. Human drivers? Not so much. #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ AMERICAN HEART – Maxwell Luke

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Tesla Robotaxi was just spotted in a new state for the first time

The company is still attempting to expand and has explicitly stated that it plans to offer rides in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida in the near future. However, a pair of Robotaxi mules, fitted with LiDAR equipment for ground truth validation, was spotted in a new region for the first time.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Robotaxi mules were spotted in a new state for the first time as the company plans to expand the ride-sharing service to new areas of the United States in the coming months.

Tesla is offering Robotaxi rides in Austin already, where nobody is present in the driver’s seat except for on freeway routes. In California, Tesla refers to its platform as a ride-hailing suite, and a “Safety Monitor” is present in the driver’s seat at all times, but the vehicle operates on Full Self-Driving.

The company is still attempting to expand and has explicitly stated that it plans to offer rides in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida in the near future. However, a pair of Robotaxi mules, fitted with LiDAR equipment for ground truth validation, was spotted in a new region for the first time.

Over the weekend, Tesla Robotaxi mules were spotted in Enola, Pennsylvania, just about ten minutes from downtown Harrisburg:

Enola is situated to the northwest of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s State Capitol. Interestingly, you’d expect Tesla to be testing these types of vehicles in other, more populated areas; Philadelphia is about two hours East, and Pittsburgh is about three hours west. State College is about an hour North of Enola.

Looking at the location of where the vehicles were spotted tells an interesting story, as Enola, located right outside of the State Capitol, could be a move to nudge legislators to consider looking at some of the laws that deal with driverless and autonomous vehicle operation.

Pennsylvania’s Act 130 of 2022 and subsequent guidelines permit the testing of driverless vehicles in the Commonwealth, but PennDOT requires a permit from Tesla or any other company that wants to operate a ride-hailing service in PA.

It’s also important to note that the cars could have simply been stopping through, as they were spotted at a Supercharger location along Interstate 81, which spans from Tennessee to New York.

It is not to say the vehicles are testing along the entire route, but likely a segment of it. The fact that they were spotted in Pennsylvania does bode well for Tesla’s expansion efforts moving forward.

@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario

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