News
SpaceX targeting Starlink launch, Starship static fire in 24-hour period
Update: SpaceX has scrubbed Falcon 9’s Starlink 4-1 due to unfavorable weather both at Cape Canaveral and downrange in the Atlantic Ocean. The next available launch opportunity is 7:19am EST (12:19 UTC), November 13th, with forecasts showing an 80% chance of favorable weather – up from 60% for Friday.
The window for Starship S20’s third static fire is now open and while no preparations for the test are visible as of yet, SpaceX has until 2pm CST (20:00 UTC).
SpaceX is scheduled to attempt Falcon 9’s next East Coast Starlink launch and a record-breaking Starship static fire less than eight hours apart on Friday, November 12th.
Barring delays or operational constraints, both of which are fairly likely, that Starship static fire and Starlink launch could technically happen just an hour or two apart. After nearly two weeks of mysterious delays, Starship S20 – SpaceX’s first orbital-class prototype – could easily run into more issues. Nevertheless, after a false-start on November 10th, Ship 20 is currently scheduled to attempt to fire up Raptor engines for the third time between 6am and 2pm CST (12-18:00 UTC).
A thousand miles (~1600 km) east of Boca Chica, Texas, a well-worn Falcon 9 booster is vertical at SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral LC-40 facilities for the company’s first dedicated Florida Starlink launch since May 26th. Weather is about 60% favorable for the ‘Starlink 4-1’ mission, which is set to lift off at 7:40am EST (12:40 UTC).
Unexpectedly, despite the surprise appearance of Falcon 9 booster B1062 – (already attached to a new upper stage) earlier this month, SpaceX has assigned a different rocket to launch Starlink 4-1. Instead of B1062, SpaceX’s first full East Coast batch of laser-linked Starlink V1.5 satellites will be carried into space on Falcon 9 B1058 as part of the booster’s 9th orbital-class launch in less than 18 months. As is now routine, the mission will also launch with two flight-proven fairing halves.
Back in Boca Chica, SpaceX could technically fire up its first orbital Starship prototype less than an hour later. While a test early in the window would be extraordinarily rare, it’s not unprecedented. Generally speaking, from the start of the road closure (no earlier than 6am CST), it takes at least an hour or two to prime pad hardware and load Starship with propellant, meaning that Starship S20’s third static fire is unlikely to occur before 7:30-8am CST (8:30-9am EST).
Depending on what SpaceX goes for, it could arguably also be the most ambitious ground test the company has ever attempted in South Texas. After an oddly long multiweek process, Ship 20 has been outfitted with a full six operational Raptor engines and there’s a real chance that SpaceX intends to fire up all six tomorrow. As of now, SpaceX has never fired more than three Raptor engines on a Starship or Super Heavy prototype, making a six-engine test at least twice as stressful as any test prior for both the pad and rocket. Even at their minimum throttle settings, Starship S20’s six Raptors would likely produce more than 600 tons (1.3M lbf) of thrust, while all six at full thrust (~1100 tons or 2.45M lbf) would briefly make Starship almost 50% more powerful than a Falcon 9 at liftoff.
As usual, there will be no official SpaceX webcast for Starship S20’s possible static fire attempt and delays are more likely than not. Unofficial streams from NASASpaceflight and others are the best place to watch.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
