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SpaceX’s first West Coast rocket launch in 17 months back on track

SpaceX is now less than three weeks away from its first California rocket launch (and landing) in almost 18 months after a slight 11-day delay. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX’s first West Coast rocket launch in almost a year and a half is back on track after an October 2nd Falcon 9 launch abort triggered several different delays.

Deemed Sentinel-6A Michael Freilich after the late US oceanographer and former NASA Earth Sciences director, Falcon 9 will launch the ~1500 kg (~3300 lb) spacecraft into low Earth orbit, where it will nominally spend a decade or more precisely measuring the height of the ocean surface to track sea level rise, ocean currents, heat distribution, and more.

Minutes after launch, new Falcon 9 booster B1063 will also attempt to land back at Landing Zone 4 (LZ-4), situated barely a thousand feet away from the launch pad. Sentinel-6A will be SpaceX’s first launch from the West Coast since it orbited Canada’s Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM) satellite trio in June 2019, as well as SpaceX’s third LZ-4 booster recovery ever.

On October 28th, NASA convened a press conference call to provide an update on an investigation SpaceX and the space agency were conducting into October 2nd’s Falcon 9 launch abort. By then, the company had concluded that the abort had been caused by a slip in quality assurance that allowed improperly cleaned vendor parts to slip through the cracks.

“According to SpaceX vice president of build and flight reliability Hans Koenigsmann, in the course of the rapid and complex mechanical and electrical ballet preceding Falcon 9 first stage ignition, the rocket’s autonomous flight computer observed that two of the GPS III SV04 booster’s nine Merlin 1D engines appeared to be running ahead of schedule, so to speak. The computer immediately halted the ignition process to avoid what could have otherwise been a “hard” (i.e. stressful or damaging) start. SpaceX quickly began inspecting the rocket within 24 hours but was unable to detect anything physically or electrically wrong with Falcon 9’s Merlin 1D engines and engine section.

Out of an abundance of caution, SpaceX removed both misbehaving engines and shipped them to its McGregor, Texas development and test facilities where – somewhat miraculously – the same premature startup behavior was replicated on the test stand. After a great deal of increasingly granular inspections, SpaceX finally narrowed the likely cause down to a tiny plumbing line feeding one of the engine’s gas generator relief valves. In a seemingly random subset of relatively new Merlin 1D engines, SpaceX eventually discovered that a supplier-provided relief valve line was sometimes clogged by a protective lacquer Koenigsmann likened to “red nail polish.

When SpaceX uncovered the possible cause and cleaned out the blocked plumbing, each previously affected Merlin 1D engine performed perfectly, all but directly confirming both the cause and the cure for Falcon 9’s October 2nd abort.”


Teslarati.com — October 29th, 2020

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A Falcon 9 booster octaweb (engine section) nears completion in SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory, (SpaceX)

As part of the investigation, SpaceX traced similar bad behavior back to engines on more than just the Falcon 9 booster (B1062) involved in the GPS III SV04 launch abort, ultimately impacting both Falcon 9 booster B1061 – assigned to launch four NASA astronauts to the ISS – and B1063 – assigned to launch Sentinel-6A.

Per Kathy Lueders, NASA’s Associate Administrator of the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD), SpaceX has ultimately decided to replace two of the Sentinel-6A booster’s nine Merlin 1D engines out of an abundance of caution. Formerly scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) November 10th, the new Falcon 9 rocket is now tracking towards its first Sentinel-6A launch attempt on Saturday, November 21st.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla takes a step towards removal of Robotaxi service’s safety drivers

Tesla watchers are speculating that the implementation of in-camera data sharing could be a step towards the removal of the Robotaxi service’s safety drivers.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla appears to be preparing for the eventual removal of its Robotaxi service’s safety drivers. 

This was hinted at in a recent de-compile of the Robotaxi App’s version 25.11.5, which was shared on social media platform X. 

In-cabin analytics

As per Tesla software tracker @Tesla_App_iOS, the latest update to the Robotaxi app featured several improvements. These include Live Screen Sharing, as well as a feature that would allow Tesla to access video and audio inside the vehicle. 

According to the software tracker, a new prompt has been added to the Robotaxi App that requests user consent for enhanced in-cabin data sharing, which comprise Cabin Camera Analytics and Sound Detection Analytics. Once accepted, Tesla would be able to retrieve video and audio data from the Robotaxi’s cabin. 

Video and audio sharing

A screenshot posted by the software tracker on X showed that Cabin Camera Analytics is used to improve the intelligence of features like request support. Tesla has not explained exactly how the feature will be implemented, though this might mean that the in-cabin camera may be used to view and analyze the status of passengers when remote agents are contacted.

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Sound Detection Analytics is expected to be used to improve the intelligence of features like siren recognition. This suggests that Robotaxis will always be actively listening for emergency vehicle sirens to improve how the system responds to them. Tesla, however, also maintained that data collected by Robotaxis will be anonymous. In-cabin data will not be linked to users unless they are needed for a safety event or a support request. 

Tesla watchers are speculating that the implementation of in-camera data sharing could be a step towards the removal of the Robotaxi service’s safety drivers. With Tesla able to access video and audio feeds from Robotaxis, after all, users can get assistance even if they are alone in the driverless vehicle. 

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Investor's Corner

Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target

As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.

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Credit: Tesla China

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however. 

As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.

With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling. 

Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot. 

“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries. 

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“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted. 

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Tesla’s Elon Musk posts updated Robotaxi fleet ramp for Austin, TX

Musk posted his update on social media platform X.

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Elon Musk says Tesla will “roughly double” its supervised Robotaxi fleet in Austin next month as riders report long wait times and limited availability across the pilot program in the Texas city. Musk posted his update on social media platform X.

The move comes as Waymo accelerates its U.S. expansion with its fully driverless freeway service, intensifying competition in autonomous mobility.

Tesla to increase Austin Robotaxi fleet size

Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin continues to operate under supervised conditions, requiring a safety monitor in the front seat even as the company seeks regulatory approval to begin testing without human oversight. The current fleet is estimated at about 30 vehicles, StockTwists noted, and Musk’s commitment to doubling that figure follows widespread rider complaints about limited access and “High Service Demand” notifications.

Influencers and early users of the Robotaxi service have observed repeated failures to secure a ride during peak times, highlighting a supply bottleneck in one of Tesla’s most visible autonomy pilots. The expansion aims to provide more consistent availability as the company scales and gathers more real-world driving data, an advantage analysts often cite as a differentiator versus rivals. 

Broader rollout plans

Tesla’s Robotaxi service has so far only been rolled out to Austin and the Bay Area, though reports have indicated that the electric vehicle maker is putting in a lot of effort to expand the service to other cities across the United States. Waymo, the Robotaxi service’s biggest competitor, has ramped its service to areas like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. 

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Analysts continue to highlight Tesla’s long-term autonomy potential due to its global fleet size, vertically integrated design, and immense real-world data. ARK Invest has maintained that Tesla Robotaxis could represent up to 90% of the company’s enterprise value by 2029. BTIG analysts, on the other hand, added that upcoming Full Self-Driving upgrades will enhance reasoning, particularly parking decisions, while Tesla pushes toward expansions in Austin, the Bay Area, and potentially 8 to 10 metro regions by the end of 2025.

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