News
Tesla’s goal of producing 1 million cars per year is closer than everyone thinks
In classic Tesla fashion, Elon Musk shared an almost insane goal back in 2016. While speaking with analysts in a conference call, Musk remarked that he believes Tesla has a shot at achieving a production rate of 1 million cars a year. This statement was met with much criticism, considering that just the year prior, Tesla delivered just over 50,500 vehicles.
As the US auto industry is starting what could very well be a long road to recovery from a pandemic, it is starting to become evident that Musk’s goal may end up being feasible after all.
The year has been cruel to the automotive industry. Back in April, North American car factories that are known to produce about a million vehicles a month ended up producing fewer than 5,000 units. But while the year has been painful for the car industry, some recovery started becoming evident in recent months. Just last month, some large automakers reported sales that beat their 2019 numbers, hinting that an upswing may be on the way.
Amidst this trend is the one outlier in the US auto industry: Tesla. The electric car maker has felt the full brunt of the pandemic, as shown in the extended closure of its Fremont Factory from mid-March to mid-May. Despite this, the company was able to show a profitable second quarter, and this past Q3, it delivered a record 139,300 vehicles, up 50% from Q2 2020. The company also produced 145,036 cars in the third quarter, up 76% from the second quarter.
What is rather remarkable is that Tesla has decided to stand by its initial goal of delivering half a million cars this 2020. This target was already ambitious without the pandemic. With the pandemic, the company’s refusal to adjust its delivery targets seems downright insane. Yet if the company’s Q3 and potential Q4 results are any indication, Tesla may actually be closer to its 1-million-car-per-year goal than expected.
Tesla has delivered about 318,000 vehicles so far this year. For Tesla to meet its goal of delivering 500,000 vehicles in 2020, the company would have to deliver over 180,000 cars in the fourth quarter. This is yet another record for the company, and it is one that would likely be challenging. RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, in a statement to The New York Times, noted that while 500,000 cars is “not an unattainable goal,” achieving it now “seems increasingly difficult.”
Yet despite these challenges, the fact that Tesla seems to be in striking distance of its pre-pandemic 2020 delivery goal represents an incredibly notable shift for the company. Just a little over a year ago, after all, Tesla was a much different automaker. It was still an embattled EV company, seemingly scrambling to raise money while TSLA short-sellers circled like sharks smelling blood in the water. Tesla ultimately proved its critics wrong, posting four profitable quarters as of Q2 2020.
If Tesla could come close or achieve its goal of producing and delivering over 180,000 vehicles in Q4 2020, the company would only be 70,000 cars short of a 250,000-vehicle-per-quarter run-rate. Once that is achieved, hitting 1 million cars per year in both production and deliveries will only be a matter of time. Granted, this is a rather ambitious step, but one must note that Tesla is pretty much taking on 2020 with just one and a half factories.
Today, Tesla only produces cars in two sites: the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai. And even then, Giga Shanghai is not yet fully ramped, with the facility yet to start Model Y production and the Model 3 line has only started operating with 3 shifts. This means that this year, Tesla has pursued its ambitious goals with a main factory in the US that was closed for over a month and a Chinese plant whose Phase 1 is now just hitting its stride.
These circumstances will likely change by next year. Tesla is in the process of building two new vehicle production facilities: Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas. Both facilities are designed to produce high-volume vehicles, with the German plant manufacturing the Model Y and Texas building the Cybertruck, a vehicle that has received well over half a million orders, as per remarks from CEO Elon Musk.
Of course, Tesla’s production and deliveries still only comprise a small part of the auto market. Yet despite this, the company’s rapid rise and the equally quick emergence of the electric vehicle sector means that Tesla is poised to dominate an industry that is still forming. Michelle Krebs, an executive editor at Cox Automotive, a market research firm, said it best in a statement to the NYT.
“Tesla is the EV market right now. It’s still a tiny part of the market, and they are going to face more competition, but they are now well established,” she said.
Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm met with Bloomberg this morning to discuss a variety of topics, but perhaps one of the most interesting was her comments on what is being done to protect company CEO Elon Musk.
After the assassination of right-wing political commentator Charlie Kirk this week, there have been concerns about Musk’s safety, as well as that of other high-profile business leaders and political figures.
Earlier this week, Musk said himself that his security detail would be increased significantly following Kirk’s death, a move that many investors and fans of the company had requested because of political violence.
Elon Musk assures Tesla investors he will enhance his security detail
“Definitely need to enhance security,” Musk said. Tesla spent $3.3 million on Musk’s security in 2024 and January and February 2025. For reference, Meta spent over $27 million on Mark Zuckerberg’s security last year, which is higher than any other tech CEO.
During Denholm’s appearance on Bloomberg TV earlier today, she stated that the company has been focused on Musk’s security detail for “many years,” especially considering he is one of the richest people on Earth and holds an incredible amount of influence.
“It is something that we take very seriously; he takes it very seriously as well. So, again, from a board perspective, it is something we’ve discussed at length,” Denholm said.
Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm on increased security for CEO Elon Musk:
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 12, 2025
Denholm added that she believes “there is not anyone in a boardroom that is not touched by what has happened with Charlie Kirk.”
Although Musk’s political involvement has toned down significantly in the past, he still has enemies, especially based on groups that oppose him and the company specifically. Based on this week’s events, it feels that increased security is a necessary expense Tesla must account for.
Investor's Corner
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
“I think from a trading perspective, it looks very interesting,” Nathan said, citing numerous signs of strength, such as holding its 200-day moving average and holding against its resistance level.
A Tesla bear is changing his tune, turning bullish for two reasons as the company’s stock has continued to get a boost over the past month.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of Tesla shares, said he is changing his tune, at least in the short term, on the company’s stock because of “technicals and sentiment,” believing the company is on track for a strong Q3, but also an investment story that will slowly veer away from its automotive business.
“I think from a trading perspective, it looks very interesting,” Nathan said, citing numerous signs of strength, such as holding its 200-day moving average and holding against its resistance level.
He also said he believes a rally for the stock could continue as it heads into the end of the quarter, especially as the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit is coming to an end at the end of the month.
With that being said, he believes the consensus for Q3 deliveries is “probably low,” as he believes Wall Street is likely underestimating what Tesla will bring to the table on October 1 or 2 when it reports numbers for the quarter.
Tesla bear Dan Nathan has flipped his script on Tesla $TSLA shares, citing “technicals and sentiment”
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 12, 2025
Tesla shares are already up over five percent today, with gains exceeding nine percent over the past five trading days, and more than fourteen percent in the past month.
While some analysts are looking at the performance of other Mag 7 stocks, movement on rates from the Federal Reserve, and other broader market factors as reasoning for Tesla’s strong performance, it appears some movement could be related to the company’s recent developments instead.
Over the past week, Tesla has made some strides in its Robotaxi program, including a new license to test the platform in the State of Nevada, which we reported on.
Tesla lands regulatory green light for Robotaxi testing in new state
Additionally, the company is riding the tails of the end of the EV tax credit, as inventory, both new and used, is running extremely low, generally speaking. Many markets do not have any vehicles to purchase as of right now, making delivery by September 30 extremely difficult.
However, there has been some adjustments to the guidelines by the IRS, which can be read here:
Tesla is trading at around $389 at 10:56 a.m. on the East Coast.
News
Tesla lands regulatory green light for Robotaxi testing in new state
This will be the third state in total where Tesla is operating Robotaxi, following Austin and California.
Tesla has landed a regulatory green light to test its Robotaxi platform in a new state, less than three months after the ride-hailing service launched in Texas.
Tesla first launched its driverless Robotaxi suite in Austin, Texas, back on June 22. Initially offering rides to a small group of people, Tesla kept things limited, but this was not to be the mentality for very long.
It continued to expand the rider population, the service area, and the vehicle fleet in Austin.
The company also launched rides in the Bay Area, but it does use a person in the driver’s seat to maintain safety. In Austin, the “Safety Monitor” is present in the passenger’s seat during local rides, and in the driver’s seat for routes that involve highway driving.
Tesla is currently testing the Robotaxi platform in other states. We reported that it was testing in Tempe, Arizona, as validation vehicles are traveling around the city in preparation for Robotaxi.
Tesla looks to make a big splash with Robotaxi in a new market
Tesla is also hoping to launch in Florida and New York, as job postings have shown the company’s intention to operate there.
However, it appears it will launch in Nevada before those states, as the company submitted its application to obtain a Testing Registry certification on September 3. It was processed by the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles Office of Business Licensing on September 10.
NEWS: Tesla has officially received approval from the Nevada DMV to start testing autonomous vehicles (robotaxis) on public roads.
Today, I confirmed directly with the Nevada DMV that @Tesla‘s application to obtain a Testing Registry certification was approved by the DMV Office… pic.twitter.com/hx5JhHBFiD
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 11, 2025
It will then need to self-certify for operations, essentially meaning they will need to comply with various state requirements.
This will be the third state in total where Tesla is operating Robotaxi, following Austin and California.
CEO Elon Musk has stated that he believes Robotaxi will be available to at least half of the U.S. population by the end of the year. Geographically, Tesla will need to make incredible strides over the final four months of the year to achieve this.
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Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Tesla lands regulatory green light for Robotaxi testing in new state
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