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Tesla’s goal of producing 1 million cars per year is closer than everyone thinks
In classic Tesla fashion, Elon Musk shared an almost insane goal back in 2016. While speaking with analysts in a conference call, Musk remarked that he believes Tesla has a shot at achieving a production rate of 1 million cars a year. This statement was met with much criticism, considering that just the year prior, Tesla delivered just over 50,500 vehicles.
As the US auto industry is starting what could very well be a long road to recovery from a pandemic, it is starting to become evident that Musk’s goal may end up being feasible after all.
The year has been cruel to the automotive industry. Back in April, North American car factories that are known to produce about a million vehicles a month ended up producing fewer than 5,000 units. But while the year has been painful for the car industry, some recovery started becoming evident in recent months. Just last month, some large automakers reported sales that beat their 2019 numbers, hinting that an upswing may be on the way.
Amidst this trend is the one outlier in the US auto industry: Tesla. The electric car maker has felt the full brunt of the pandemic, as shown in the extended closure of its Fremont Factory from mid-March to mid-May. Despite this, the company was able to show a profitable second quarter, and this past Q3, it delivered a record 139,300 vehicles, up 50% from Q2 2020. The company also produced 145,036 cars in the third quarter, up 76% from the second quarter.

What is rather remarkable is that Tesla has decided to stand by its initial goal of delivering half a million cars this 2020. This target was already ambitious without the pandemic. With the pandemic, the company’s refusal to adjust its delivery targets seems downright insane. Yet if the company’s Q3 and potential Q4 results are any indication, Tesla may actually be closer to its 1-million-car-per-year goal than expected.
Tesla has delivered about 318,000 vehicles so far this year. For Tesla to meet its goal of delivering 500,000 vehicles in 2020, the company would have to deliver over 180,000 cars in the fourth quarter. This is yet another record for the company, and it is one that would likely be challenging. RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, in a statement to The New York Times, noted that while 500,000 cars is “not an unattainable goal,” achieving it now “seems increasingly difficult.”
Yet despite these challenges, the fact that Tesla seems to be in striking distance of its pre-pandemic 2020 delivery goal represents an incredibly notable shift for the company. Just a little over a year ago, after all, Tesla was a much different automaker. It was still an embattled EV company, seemingly scrambling to raise money while TSLA short-sellers circled like sharks smelling blood in the water. Tesla ultimately proved its critics wrong, posting four profitable quarters as of Q2 2020.
If Tesla could come close or achieve its goal of producing and delivering over 180,000 vehicles in Q4 2020, the company would only be 70,000 cars short of a 250,000-vehicle-per-quarter run-rate. Once that is achieved, hitting 1 million cars per year in both production and deliveries will only be a matter of time. Granted, this is a rather ambitious step, but one must note that Tesla is pretty much taking on 2020 with just one and a half factories.

Today, Tesla only produces cars in two sites: the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai. And even then, Giga Shanghai is not yet fully ramped, with the facility yet to start Model Y production and the Model 3 line has only started operating with 3 shifts. This means that this year, Tesla has pursued its ambitious goals with a main factory in the US that was closed for over a month and a Chinese plant whose Phase 1 is now just hitting its stride.
These circumstances will likely change by next year. Tesla is in the process of building two new vehicle production facilities: Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas. Both facilities are designed to produce high-volume vehicles, with the German plant manufacturing the Model Y and Texas building the Cybertruck, a vehicle that has received well over half a million orders, as per remarks from CEO Elon Musk.
Of course, Tesla’s production and deliveries still only comprise a small part of the auto market. Yet despite this, the company’s rapid rise and the equally quick emergence of the electric vehicle sector means that Tesla is poised to dominate an industry that is still forming. Michelle Krebs, an executive editor at Cox Automotive, a market research firm, said it best in a statement to the NYT.
“Tesla is the EV market right now. It’s still a tiny part of the market, and they are going to face more competition, but they are now well established,” she said.
News
Tesla rolls out most aggressive Model Y lease deal in the US yet
With the promotion in place, customers would be able to take home a Model Y at a very low cost.
Tesla has rolled out what could very well be its most aggressive promotion for Model Y leases in the United States yet. With the promotion in place, customers would be able to take home a Model Y at a very low cost.
Zero downpayment leases
The new Model Y lease promotion was initially reported on X, with industry watcher Sawyer Merritt stating that while the vehicles’ monthly payments are still similar to before, the cars can now be ordered with a $0 downpayment.
Tesla community members noted that this promotion would cut the full payment cost of Model Y leases by several thousand dollars, though prices were still a bit better when the $7,500 federal tax credit was still in effect. Despite this, a $0 downpayment would likely be appreciated by customers, as it lowers the entry point to the Tesla ecosystem by a notable margin.
Premium freebies included
Apart from a $0 downpayment, customers of Model Y leases are also provided one free upgrade for their vehicles. These upgrades could be premium paint, such as Pearl White Multi-Coat, Deep Blue Metallic, Diamond Black, Quicksilver or Ultra Red, or 20″ Helix 2.0 Wheels. Customers could also opt for a White Interior or a Tow Hitch free of charge.
A look at Tesla’s Model Y order page shows that the promotion is available for all the Model Y Premium Rear-Wheel Drive and the Model Y Premium All-Wheel Drive. The Model Y Standard and the Model Y Performance are not eligible for the $0 downpayment or free premium upgrade promotion as of writing.
@teslarati 🚨 Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1.7 is here and here’s some things it did extremely well! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ You Have It – Marscott
News
Tesla is looking to phase out China-made parts at US factories: report
Tesla has reportedly swapped out several China-made components already, aiming to complete the transition within the next two years.
Tesla has reportedly started directing its suppliers to eliminate China-made components from vehicles built in the United States. This would make Tesla’s US-produced vehicles even more American-made.
The update was initially reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Accelerating North American sourcing
As per the WSJ report, the shift reportedly came amidst escalating tariff uncertainties between Washington and Beijing. Citing people reportedly familiar with the matter, the publication claimed that Tesla has already swapped out several China-made components, aiming to complete the transition within the next two years. The publication also claimed that Tesla has been reducing its reliance on China-based suppliers since the pandemic disrupted supply chains.
The company has quietly increased North American sourcing over the past two years as tariff concerns have intensified. If accurate, Tesla would likely end up with vehicles that are even more locally sourced than they are today. It would remain to be seen, however, if a change in suppliers for its US-made vehicles would result in price adjustments for cars like the Model 3 and Model Y.
Industry-wide reassessments
Tesla is not alone in reevaluating its dependence on China. Auto executives across the automotive industry have been in rapid-response mode amid shifting trade policies, chip supply anxiety, and concerns over rare-earth materials. Fluctuating tariffs between the United States and China during President Donald Trump’s current term have made pricing strategies quite unpredictable as well, as noted in a Reuters report.
General Motors this week issued a similar directive to thousands of suppliers, instructing them to remove China-origin components from their supply chains. The same is true for Stellantis, which also announced earlier this year that it was implementing several strategies to avoid tariffs that were placed by the Trump administration.
@teslarati 🚨 Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1.7 is here and here’s some things it did extremely well! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ You Have It – Marscott
News
Tesla owners propose interesting theory about Apple CarPlay and EV tax credit
“100%. It’s needed for sales because for many prospective buyers, CarPlay is a nonnegotiable must-have. If they knew how good the Tesla UI is, they wouldn’t think they need CarPlay,” one owner said.
Tesla is reportedly bracing for the integration of Apple’s well-known iOS automotive platform, CarPlay, into its vehicles after the company had avoided it for years.
However, now that it’s here, owners are more than clear that they do not want it, and they have their theories about why it’s on its way. Some believe it might have to do with the EV tax credit, or rather, the loss of it.
Owners are more interested in why Tesla is doing this now, especially considering that so many have been outspoken about the fact that they would not use it in favor of the company’s user interface (UI), which is extremely well done.
After Bloomberg reported that Tesla was working on Apple CarPlay integration, the reactions immediately started pouring in. From my perspective, having used both Apple CarPlay in two previous vehicles and going to Tesla’s in-house UI in my Model Y, both platforms definitely have their advantages.
However, Tesla’s UI just works with its vehicles, as it is intuitive and well-engineered for its cars specifically. Apple CarPlay was always good, but it was buggy at times, which could be attributed to the vehicle and not the software, and not as user-friendly, but that is subjective.
Nevertheless, upon the release of Bloomberg’s report, people immediately challenged the need for it:
Everyone thinks they need it. I would think that too if I didn’t know how good Tesla’s interface was. CarPlay is a crappy layer on top of crappy info-navs, and people think it’s an imperative because it provides a level of consistency from car to car. They have no clue how much…
— Rich Stafford (@r26174_rich) November 14, 2025
How can it not be when the best engineers choose Tesla over Apple and Tesla’s core focus is auto vs Apple being mobile. It’s what Tesla does every day. It’s a side project for Apple. Still Apple is much better than any other auto OEM who attract lesser talent and make digital…
— Emu (@confessedemu) November 14, 2025
Some fans proposed an interesting point: What if Tesla is using CarPlay as a counter to losing the $7,500 EV tax credit? Perhaps it is an interesting way to attract customers who have not owned a Tesla before but are more interested in having a vehicle equipped with CarPlay?
“100%. It’s needed for sales because for many prospective buyers, CarPlay is a nonnegotiable must-have. If they knew how good the Tesla UI is, they wouldn’t think they need CarPlay,” one owner said.
Tesla has made a handful of moves to attract people to its cars after losing the tax credit. This could be a small but potentially mighty strategy that will pull some carbuyers to Tesla, especially now that the Apple CarPlay box is checked.
@teslarati :rotating_light: This is why you need to use off-peak rates at Tesla Superchargers! #tesla #evcharging #fyp ♬ Blue Moon – Muspace Lofi
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