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Tesla’s goal of producing 1 million cars per year is closer than everyone thinks
In classic Tesla fashion, Elon Musk shared an almost insane goal back in 2016. While speaking with analysts in a conference call, Musk remarked that he believes Tesla has a shot at achieving a production rate of 1 million cars a year. This statement was met with much criticism, considering that just the year prior, Tesla delivered just over 50,500 vehicles.
As the US auto industry is starting what could very well be a long road to recovery from a pandemic, it is starting to become evident that Musk’s goal may end up being feasible after all.
The year has been cruel to the automotive industry. Back in April, North American car factories that are known to produce about a million vehicles a month ended up producing fewer than 5,000 units. But while the year has been painful for the car industry, some recovery started becoming evident in recent months. Just last month, some large automakers reported sales that beat their 2019 numbers, hinting that an upswing may be on the way.
Amidst this trend is the one outlier in the US auto industry: Tesla. The electric car maker has felt the full brunt of the pandemic, as shown in the extended closure of its Fremont Factory from mid-March to mid-May. Despite this, the company was able to show a profitable second quarter, and this past Q3, it delivered a record 139,300 vehicles, up 50% from Q2 2020. The company also produced 145,036 cars in the third quarter, up 76% from the second quarter.
What is rather remarkable is that Tesla has decided to stand by its initial goal of delivering half a million cars this 2020. This target was already ambitious without the pandemic. With the pandemic, the company’s refusal to adjust its delivery targets seems downright insane. Yet if the company’s Q3 and potential Q4 results are any indication, Tesla may actually be closer to its 1-million-car-per-year goal than expected.
Tesla has delivered about 318,000 vehicles so far this year. For Tesla to meet its goal of delivering 500,000 vehicles in 2020, the company would have to deliver over 180,000 cars in the fourth quarter. This is yet another record for the company, and it is one that would likely be challenging. RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, in a statement to The New York Times, noted that while 500,000 cars is “not an unattainable goal,” achieving it now “seems increasingly difficult.”
Yet despite these challenges, the fact that Tesla seems to be in striking distance of its pre-pandemic 2020 delivery goal represents an incredibly notable shift for the company. Just a little over a year ago, after all, Tesla was a much different automaker. It was still an embattled EV company, seemingly scrambling to raise money while TSLA short-sellers circled like sharks smelling blood in the water. Tesla ultimately proved its critics wrong, posting four profitable quarters as of Q2 2020.
If Tesla could come close or achieve its goal of producing and delivering over 180,000 vehicles in Q4 2020, the company would only be 70,000 cars short of a 250,000-vehicle-per-quarter run-rate. Once that is achieved, hitting 1 million cars per year in both production and deliveries will only be a matter of time. Granted, this is a rather ambitious step, but one must note that Tesla is pretty much taking on 2020 with just one and a half factories.
Today, Tesla only produces cars in two sites: the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai. And even then, Giga Shanghai is not yet fully ramped, with the facility yet to start Model Y production and the Model 3 line has only started operating with 3 shifts. This means that this year, Tesla has pursued its ambitious goals with a main factory in the US that was closed for over a month and a Chinese plant whose Phase 1 is now just hitting its stride.
These circumstances will likely change by next year. Tesla is in the process of building two new vehicle production facilities: Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas. Both facilities are designed to produce high-volume vehicles, with the German plant manufacturing the Model Y and Texas building the Cybertruck, a vehicle that has received well over half a million orders, as per remarks from CEO Elon Musk.
Of course, Tesla’s production and deliveries still only comprise a small part of the auto market. Yet despite this, the company’s rapid rise and the equally quick emergence of the electric vehicle sector means that Tesla is poised to dominate an industry that is still forming. Michelle Krebs, an executive editor at Cox Automotive, a market research firm, said it best in a statement to the NYT.
“Tesla is the EV market right now. It’s still a tiny part of the market, and they are going to face more competition, but they are now well established,” she said.
Elon Musk appeared on the Moonshots podcast with Peter Diamandis today to discuss AGI, U.S. vs. China, Tesla, and some other interesting topics, but there was some discussion about the upcoming unveiling of the Roadster, the company’s electric supercar that will arrive several years after it was initially slated for release.
Musk made some pretty amazing claims about the Roadster; we already know it is supposed to be lightning-fast and could even hover, if Tesla gets everything to happen the way it wants to. However, the car has some pretty crazy capabilities, some of which have not even been revealed.
On the podcast, Musk said:
“This is not a…safety is not the main goal. If you buy a Ferrari, safety is not the number one goal. I say, if safety is your number one goal, do not buy the Roadster…We’ll aspire not to kill anyone in this car. It’ll be the best of the last of the human-driven cars. The best of the last.”
🚨 Elon on the Roadster unveiling, scheduled for April 1:
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 6, 2026
Musk makes a good point: people who buy expensive sports cars with ridiculous top speeds and acceleration rates do not buy them to be safe. They hope they are safe in case of an emergency or crash, but safety is not at the forefront of their thoughts, because nobody buys a car thinking they’ll crash it.
The Roadster is truly going to push the limits and capabilities of passenger vehicles; there’s no doubt about that. Tesla plans to show off the new version car for the first time on April 1, and Musk has only hinted at what is possible with it.
Musk said back in November:
“Whether it’s good or bad, it will be unforgettable. My friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don’t have flying cars. I think if Peter wants a flying car, he should be able to buy one…I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveiling ever. [It will be unveiled] hopefully before the end of the year. You know, we need to make sure that it works. This is some crazy technology in this car. Let’s just put it this way: if you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it’s crazier than that.”
Production is set to begin between 12 and 18 months after the unveiling, which would put the car out sometime in 2027. Hopefully, Tesla is able to stay on track with the scheduling of the Roadster; many people have been waiting a long time for it.
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Tesla launches hiring for Robotaxi program in its twentieth country
Overall, the hiring signals Tesla’s aggressive timeline for global dominance in autonomous mobility.
Tesla has launched a hiring initiative for its Robotaxi program in its twentieth country, as the company posted two new jobs in Thailand this week.
Tesla is hiring in Bangkok and Kowloon for the Vehicle Operator position, which is related to data collection, and is the first in Thailand, but the twentieth country overall, as the company tries to expand into other markets.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla is hiring additional full-time Vehicle Operators in Bangkok, Thailand.
Previous openings were 6-month, part-time roles. These are equivalent to AI Safety Operator roles in the U.S. pic.twitter.com/R6LzoU1bos— Tesla Yoda (@teslayoda) January 5, 2026
Tesla has had active job postings for Vehicle Operator positions in the United States, India, Israel, Taiwan, Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary, the UK, Finland, Switzerland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain, Norway, Italy, and Turkey in past listings.
These postings are not all currently available, likely because the roles have been filled.
Thailand is the most recent, and broadens the company’s potential path to expanding its ride-hailing program, which is only active in the United States in Austin, Texas, and the California Bay Area, so far.
These roles typically involve data collection, which assists in improving Autopilot and Full Self-Driving operation. Tesla’s self-driving programs utilize real-world data that is accumulated and stored, observing vehicle and traffic behavior, as well as tendencies that are performed by human drivers to help increase safety and overall performance.
Overall, the hiring signals Tesla’s aggressive timeline for global dominance in autonomous mobility. Although the company has several high-profile rivals and competitors in the field, it has established itself as a main player and a leader in the development of autonomous technology, especially in the U.S., as its FSD suite is refined on almost a weekly basis.
The Full Self-Driving suite is available in seven countries and territories currently, including the U.S., Canada, China, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Australia, and New Zealand. Its biggest goal for expansion is currently the European market, where regulatory hurdles have been the main bottleneck prolonging its launch on the continent.
Tesla has performed months of testing in various European countries, including France and Spain, and does have support in some areas from various regulatory agencies. However, the company is hoping to get through this red tape and offer its suite in Europe for the first time, hopefully this year.
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Tesla China rolls out Model Y upgrades, launches low-interest financing
These strategies are aimed at improving the ownership experience and keeping vehicle pricing competitive in the world’s largest electric vehicle market.
Tesla has rolled out minor updates to the five-seat Model Y in China, upgrading the vehicle’s center display to a higher-resolution 16-inch 2K screen. The electric vehicle maker also introduced attractive financing options, including 7-year low-interest rates, to offset the new purchase tax on EVs.
These strategies are aimed at improving the ownership experience and keeping vehicle pricing competitive in the world’s largest electric vehicle market.
Five-seat Model Y gets larger, better display
With its recent update, all three variants of the five-seat Model Y now feature an upgraded 16-inch 2K resolution center display, which replaces the vehicle’s previous 15.4-inch 1080p panel. This screen was already used in the six-seat Model Y L, and it offered improved visual clarity. Tesla China has also updated the Model Y’s headliner to black, giving the vehicle a sleeker appearance.
Prices of the five-seat Model Y remain unchanged at RMB 263,500, RMB 288,500, and RMB 313,500 for the respective trims. This update enhances the cabin experience as domestic rivals are already adopting high-resolution screens. As noted in a CNEV Post report, some domestic automakers have begun rolling out vehicles equipped with 3K-resolution displays.
New financing offers
Tesla also launched ultra-long-term financing offers for its locally produced models in China, which include the Model 3 sedan, the five-seat Model Y, and the six-seat Model Y L, through January 31, 2026. The 7-year option features an annualized fee rate as low as 0.5%, which is equivalent to 0.98% interest. This is expected to save customers up to RMB 33,479 ($4,790) compared to standard rates.
A 5-year zero-interest plan is also available, and it has been extended to the Tesla Model Y L for the first time. These incentives help offset China’s new 5% purchase tax on New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in 2026-2027. Some of Tesla’s rivals in China have announced in recent months that they would be covering the purchase tax owed by buyers early this year.
Elon Musk just said some crazy stuff about the Tesla Roadster
Tesla launches hiring for Robotaxi program in its twentieth country
