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Tesla’s goal of producing 1 million cars per year is closer than everyone thinks
In classic Tesla fashion, Elon Musk shared an almost insane goal back in 2016. While speaking with analysts in a conference call, Musk remarked that he believes Tesla has a shot at achieving a production rate of 1 million cars a year. This statement was met with much criticism, considering that just the year prior, Tesla delivered just over 50,500 vehicles.
As the US auto industry is starting what could very well be a long road to recovery from a pandemic, it is starting to become evident that Musk’s goal may end up being feasible after all.
The year has been cruel to the automotive industry. Back in April, North American car factories that are known to produce about a million vehicles a month ended up producing fewer than 5,000 units. But while the year has been painful for the car industry, some recovery started becoming evident in recent months. Just last month, some large automakers reported sales that beat their 2019 numbers, hinting that an upswing may be on the way.
Amidst this trend is the one outlier in the US auto industry: Tesla. The electric car maker has felt the full brunt of the pandemic, as shown in the extended closure of its Fremont Factory from mid-March to mid-May. Despite this, the company was able to show a profitable second quarter, and this past Q3, it delivered a record 139,300 vehicles, up 50% from Q2 2020. The company also produced 145,036 cars in the third quarter, up 76% from the second quarter.
What is rather remarkable is that Tesla has decided to stand by its initial goal of delivering half a million cars this 2020. This target was already ambitious without the pandemic. With the pandemic, the company’s refusal to adjust its delivery targets seems downright insane. Yet if the company’s Q3 and potential Q4 results are any indication, Tesla may actually be closer to its 1-million-car-per-year goal than expected.
Tesla has delivered about 318,000 vehicles so far this year. For Tesla to meet its goal of delivering 500,000 vehicles in 2020, the company would have to deliver over 180,000 cars in the fourth quarter. This is yet another record for the company, and it is one that would likely be challenging. RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, in a statement to The New York Times, noted that while 500,000 cars is “not an unattainable goal,” achieving it now “seems increasingly difficult.”
Yet despite these challenges, the fact that Tesla seems to be in striking distance of its pre-pandemic 2020 delivery goal represents an incredibly notable shift for the company. Just a little over a year ago, after all, Tesla was a much different automaker. It was still an embattled EV company, seemingly scrambling to raise money while TSLA short-sellers circled like sharks smelling blood in the water. Tesla ultimately proved its critics wrong, posting four profitable quarters as of Q2 2020.
If Tesla could come close or achieve its goal of producing and delivering over 180,000 vehicles in Q4 2020, the company would only be 70,000 cars short of a 250,000-vehicle-per-quarter run-rate. Once that is achieved, hitting 1 million cars per year in both production and deliveries will only be a matter of time. Granted, this is a rather ambitious step, but one must note that Tesla is pretty much taking on 2020 with just one and a half factories.
Today, Tesla only produces cars in two sites: the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai. And even then, Giga Shanghai is not yet fully ramped, with the facility yet to start Model Y production and the Model 3 line has only started operating with 3 shifts. This means that this year, Tesla has pursued its ambitious goals with a main factory in the US that was closed for over a month and a Chinese plant whose Phase 1 is now just hitting its stride.
These circumstances will likely change by next year. Tesla is in the process of building two new vehicle production facilities: Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas. Both facilities are designed to produce high-volume vehicles, with the German plant manufacturing the Model Y and Texas building the Cybertruck, a vehicle that has received well over half a million orders, as per remarks from CEO Elon Musk.
Of course, Tesla’s production and deliveries still only comprise a small part of the auto market. Yet despite this, the company’s rapid rise and the equally quick emergence of the electric vehicle sector means that Tesla is poised to dominate an industry that is still forming. Michelle Krebs, an executive editor at Cox Automotive, a market research firm, said it best in a statement to the NYT.
“Tesla is the EV market right now. It’s still a tiny part of the market, and they are going to face more competition, but they are now well established,” she said.
News
Tesla analyst compares Robotaxi to Waymo: ‘The contrast was clear’
“In short, robotaxi felt like a more luxurious service for half the cost and the driving felt more human-like.”

Tesla analyst Jed Dorsheimer of Wall Street firm William Blair compared the company’s Robotaxi platform to Waymo’s driverless ride-sharing program, and had a clear-cut consensus over which option was better in terms of rider experience.
Dorsheimer visited Austin recently to ride in both Tesla’s Robotaxi ride-sharing program and Waymo, which has operated slightly longer than Tesla has in the city. Tesla started rides on June 22, while Waymo opened its vehicles to the public in March.
A Tesla Model Y L Robotaxi is a legitimate $47k Waymo killer
The analyst gave both platforms the opportunity to present themselves, and by the end of it, one was better than the other in terms of rider experience. However, he noted that both platforms gave safe and smooth rides.
Overall, there was a tremendous difference in the feel and environment of each option.
Tesla Robotaxi vs. Waymo
Dorsheimer said that Tesla’s first big advantage was vehicle appearance. Robotaxi uses no external equipment or hardware to operate; just its exterior cameras. Meanwhile, Zoox and Waymo vehicles utilize LiDAR rigs on their vehicles, which made them “stick out like a sore thumb.”
“In contrast, the robotaxis blended in with other Teslas on the road; we felt inconspicuous flowing with the traffic,” he added.
The next big victory went in the way of Robotaxi once again, and it concerned perhaps the most important metric in the ridesharing experience: price.
He continued in the note:
“Confirming our thesis, robotaxi was half the price of Uber, showing its ability to win market share by weaponizing price.”
In terms of overall performance, Dorsheimer noted that both platforms provided safe and “top-notch” experiences. However, there was one distinction between the two and it provided a clear consensus on which was better.
He said:
“In Austin, we took multiple robotaxi and Waymo rides; the contrast was clear. Aside from the visual difference between each pulling up to the curb, the robotaxi was comfortable and familiar, and it felt as though a friendly ghost chauffeur was driving our personal car. Driving was smooth and human-like, recognizing and patiently waiting for pedestrians, switching into less crowded lanes, patiently waiting to execute a safe unprotected turn, and yet, discerning and confident enough to drive through a light that just turned yellow, so as not to slam on the brakes.
Waymo also provided a top-notch service, and we did not encounter any safety concerns, but if we were to be overly critical, it felt more … robotic. In the cabin, you have to listen to an airline-esque preamble on Waymo and safety protocols, and during the ride, you can hear all the various spinning lidar sensors spooling up and down with electronic whizzing sounds.”
Tesla Robotaxi provides an experience that seems to be more catered toward a realistic ride experience. You can control the music, the cabin temperature, and transitioning your travel from one vehicle to the next during a trip will continue your entertainment experience.
If your first trip ends in the middle of a song, your next trip will pick up the music where it left off.
Meanwhile, Waymo’s experience sounds as if it is more focused on rider expectations, and not necessarily providing a ride that felt catered to the occupants. Still, what’s important is that both platforms provided safe rides.
Dorsheimer ended the note with one last tidbit:
“In short, robotaxi felt like a more luxurious service for half the cost and the driving felt more human-like.”
News
Tesla offers new deal on used inventory that you won’t want to pass up
Tesla opened up lease deals on used Model 3 and Model Y inventory in California and Texas on Tuesday, marking the first time it has launched the option on pre-owned cars.

Tesla is offering a new deal on its used vehicle inventory that consumers looking for a great deal won’t want to pass up.
Traditionally, Tesla has not allowed potential car buyers to lease its used inventory. The only two options were to buy with cash or finance it through Tesla or a bank.
However, with the elimination of the $7,500 new and $4,000 used EV tax credits, Tesla is breaking its own rules and is now offering lease deals on its used vehicle inventory, but only in a couple of states, as of right now.
Tesla is ready with a perfect counter to the end of US EV tax credits
Tesla opened up lease deals on used Model 3 and Model Y inventory in California and Texas on Tuesday, marking the first time it has launched the option on pre-owned cars.
The deals are tremendous and can cost as little as $0 down and under $225 per month for some vehicles.
Lease a Pre-Owned Model 3 or Y
As low as $0 down & $225/month
Now available in CA & TX https://t.co/LRYRIZP8VZ
— Tesla North America (@tesla_na) August 19, 2025
Tesla also allows customers to buy the vehicle at the end of their lease deal, which enables some really great ways to end up an owner of the car you plan to drive for the next two or three years.
The lease deal also helps Tesla rid itself of older vehicles that might not be of future use to the company. It formerly planned to use leased vehicles in its eventual Robotaxi fleet, but many of the cars in its used inventory have Hardware 3, which is less capable than Hardware 4, which is installed in the new Model 3 and Model Y.
More importantly, Tesla is giving people yet another way to be in the market for a Tesla before the tax credit ends on September 30.
Elon Musk
Tesla Model Y L might not come to the U.S., and it’s a missed opportunity
The Model Y L has a variety of big changes that would be advantageous for the U.S. market, including a longer wheelbase, more comfortable seats, a third row that appears to be more spacious than Tesla’s six-seat Model Y that it previously offered, B-Pillar vents for rear passengers, and more.

Tesla’s new Model Y L might not come to the U.S., CEO Elon Musk said this morning.
It’s a missed opportunity, and I’m not the only one who feels this way.
In the past, I have personally written a handful of articles about what Tesla owners have been wanting in the United States: a full-sized SUV, or at least a vehicle that is larger than the Model Y but less of a crossover than the Model X.
Tesla is missing one type of vehicle in its lineup and fans want it fast
The only thing that Tesla has announced that even slightly matches this sort of idea is the Robovan, which is, optimistically, several years off because it lacks a steering wheel and pedals and will require Full Self-Driving to be fully autonomous.
Even if Tesla launches FSD next year, it will take a year or two to figure out manufacturing, go through regulatory hurdles with the EPA, and eventually enter mass production for customers.
The Model Y L has a variety of big changes that would be advantageous for the U.S. market, including a longer wheelbase, more comfortable seats, a third row that appears to be more spacious than Tesla’s six-seat Model Y that it previously offered, B-Pillar vents for rear passengers, and more.
However, Musk said it won’t come to the U.S. until next year, and that it “might not ever, given the advent of self-driving in America.”
This variant of the Model Y doesn’t start production in the US until the end of next year.
Might not ever, given the advent of self-driving in America.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 20, 2025
To be blunt, I’m not sure if I truly believe that Musk thinks the Model Y L won’t come to the U.S. Some believe he said this to not Osborne Effect Model Y sales here, which seems more likely than anything.
Tesla Model Y L gets disappointingly far production date in the United States
People have been buying the Model Y for two years more than any other car in the world. To act as if many families would not appreciate the extra space seems very strange; a big complaint with the Model Y is that it simply does not fit larger families.
If you have four kids, you’re forced into the Model X, which might be too expensive for some families, as it starts at $79,990.
While Tesla’s focus is undoubtedly on autonomy, it is important to remember that some people still really enjoy the act of driving their cars. Tesla has worked very hard to create a fun and sporty driving experience, especially in the new Model Y. Many consumers, including myself, like to take advantage of that.
Autonomy might eventually take over human driving completely, but in the near term, it does not seem as if that is the case. Even if someone were interested in never driving again, this longer and more spacious Model Y L would be an ideal option for American families that need the room for at least six passengers.
Quite a few big names in the Tesla community share this sentiment:
I’m a little surprised by this.
I think the Model Y L would sell extremely well in North America, even with the advent of self-driving. Americans love their larger SUVs. Bigger families here want the Model Y L. There is a need in North America for larger all-electric SUVs at a… https://t.co/v7D1IpCnET
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 20, 2025
More than likely, Musk does not want to announce a more attractive option than the current Model Y, as many consumers would likely wait a year or two for the L in an effort to have more space.
In all honesty, I see the Model Y L coming to the United States, as it truly fits the bill as an ideal car for the modern American family.
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