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Tesla’s goal of producing 1 million cars per year is closer than everyone thinks

(Credit: Evan Jarecki/Instagram)

Published

5 years ago

October 5, 2020

Simon Alvarez

In classic Tesla fashion, Elon Musk shared an almost insane goal back in 2016. While speaking with analysts in a conference call, Musk remarked that he believes Tesla has a shot at achieving a production rate of 1 million cars a year. This statement was met with much criticism, considering that just the year prior, Tesla delivered just over 50,500 vehicles.

As the US auto industry is starting what could very well be a long road to recovery from a pandemic, it is starting to become evident that Musk’s goal may end up being feasible after all.

The year has been cruel to the automotive industry. Back in April, North American car factories that are known to produce about a million vehicles a month ended up producing fewer than 5,000 units. But while the year has been painful for the car industry, some recovery started becoming evident in recent months. Just last month, some large automakers reported sales that beat their 2019 numbers, hinting that an upswing may be on the way.

Amidst this trend is the one outlier in the US auto industry: Tesla. The electric car maker has felt the full brunt of the pandemic, as shown in the extended closure of its Fremont Factory from mid-March to mid-May. Despite this, the company was able to show a profitable second quarter, and this past Q3, it delivered a record 139,300 vehicles, up 50% from Q2 2020. The company also produced 145,036 cars in the third quarter, up 76% from the second quarter.

Tesla Model Y (Photo: Teslarati) — Tesla Model Y (Credit: Teslarati)

What is rather remarkable is that Tesla has decided to stand by its initial goal of delivering half a million cars this 2020. This target was already ambitious without the pandemic. With the pandemic, the company’s refusal to adjust its delivery targets seems downright insane. Yet if the company’s Q3 and potential Q4 results are any indication, Tesla may actually be closer to its 1-million-car-per-year goal than expected.

Tesla has delivered about 318,000 vehicles so far this year. For Tesla to meet its goal of delivering 500,000 vehicles in 2020, the company would have to deliver over 180,000 cars in the fourth quarter. This is yet another record for the company, and it is one that would likely be challenging. RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, in a statement to The New York Times, noted that while 500,000 cars is “not an unattainable goal,” achieving it now “seems increasingly difficult.”

Yet despite these challenges, the fact that Tesla seems to be in striking distance of its pre-pandemic 2020 delivery goal represents an incredibly notable shift for the company. Just a little over a year ago, after all, Tesla was a much different automaker. It was still an embattled EV company, seemingly scrambling to raise money while TSLA short-sellers circled like sharks smelling blood in the water. Tesla ultimately proved its critics wrong, posting four profitable quarters as of Q2 2020.

If Tesla could come close or achieve its goal of producing and delivering over 180,000 vehicles in Q4 2020, the company would only be 70,000 cars short of a 250,000-vehicle-per-quarter run-rate. Once that is achieved, hitting 1 million cars per year in both production and deliveries will only be a matter of time. Granted, this is a rather ambitious step, but one must note that Tesla is pretty much taking on 2020 with just one and a half factories.

Today, Tesla only produces cars in two sites: the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai. And even then, Giga Shanghai is not yet fully ramped, with the facility yet to start Model Y production and the Model 3 line has only started operating with 3 shifts. This means that this year, Tesla has pursued its ambitious goals with a main factory in the US that was closed for over a month and a Chinese plant whose Phase 1 is now just hitting its stride.

These circumstances will likely change by next year. Tesla is in the process of building two new vehicle production facilities: Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas. Both facilities are designed to produce high-volume vehicles, with the German plant manufacturing the Model Y and Texas building the Cybertruck, a vehicle that has received well over half a million orders, as per remarks from CEO Elon Musk.

Of course, Tesla’s production and deliveries still only comprise a small part of the auto market. Yet despite this, the company’s rapid rise and the equally quick emergence of the electric vehicle sector means that Tesla is poised to dominate an industry that is still forming. Michelle Krebs, an executive editor at Cox Automotive, a market research firm, said it best in a statement to the NYT.

“Tesla is the EV market right now. It’s still a tiny part of the market, and they are going to face more competition, but they are now well established,” she said.

Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk teases Optimus job that’s straight out of Robocop

Published

5 hours ago

November 11, 2025

Joey Klender

Credit: @heydave7/X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased a potential job for the company’s Optimus robot last week that is straight out of the movie “Robocop.”

“Robocop” aimed to show a futuristic look at law enforcement in a Sci-fi thriller that was among the first iterations of how robots could be used for police work.

The 1987 film showcased an injured cop turning into an armed cyborg, and although Tesla’s Optimus won’t be a human-robot hybrid, Musk’s idea for the humanoid project is similar.

Musk said last week at the Annual Shareholder Meeting, where shareholders voted to approve his $1 trillion compensation plan, that Optimus could be the future of law enforcement, nearly revolutionizing the way criminals are prosecuted.

He hinted that Optimus could actually be used as a chaperone of sorts, arguing that it was a “more humane form of containment of future crime.” Musk said:

“If somebody’s committed a crime, we might be able to provide a more humane form of containment of future crime. You now get a free Optimus, and it’s just going to follow you around and stop you from doing crime. Other than that, you get to do anything; it’s just going to stop you from committing crime. That’s really it. You don’t have to put people in prisons and stuff. It’s pretty wild to think of all the possibilities, but I think it’s clearly the future.”

Elon Musk: With Optimus, we might be able to stop putting people in prison.

“If somebody’s committed a crime, we might be able to provide a more humane form of containment of future crime. You now get a free Optimus, and it’s just going to follow you around and stop you from… pic.twitter.com/Y8E2ToyNkd

— ELON CLIPS (@ElonClipsX) November 10, 2025

Musk’s overall idea for Optimus is to change the way people are able to exist, from those law-abiding citizens to others who have their run-ins with the law. Instead, the Tesla CEO believes there could be a different way to handle everything, including punishment.

It was not the only thing that Musk indicated could be changed significantly by the presence of humanoid robots, as he also said a universal basic income could be established with the help of products like Optimus.

Elon Musk

Elon Musk teases huge merger: ‘Trending towards convergence’

“My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence.”

Published

7 hours ago

November 11, 2025

Joey Klender

Elon Musk recently amplified the thoughts of Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who had insight into the “Muskonomy” of his potentially interconnected ventures, something that was proposed at the recent Tesla Shareholder Meeting with xAI.

Musk’s words indicate a potential strategic fusion that could serve as a blueprint for future innovation–but it is dependent on a conglomeration between the many entities the CEO serves.

As Tesla grapples with scaling Optimus and preparing for its imminent production and the development of the Full Self-Driving suite, xAI’s computational edge could provide leverage for the millions of miles of data the company accumulates, providing a more stable and accurate development strategy for the autonomous and AI efforts it has put its chips all in on.

After Tesla Shareholders voted to deny Tesla and xAI’s potential financial partnership through an investment, Jonas said it was an issue that would have to be revisited due to its importance.

xAI has the opportunity to provide an incredible strategic and financial bolstering to Tesla, especially with how important a role data plays in the development of the company’s biggest products.

Jonas wrote in a note to investors:

“They’re gonna have to revisit this. We don’t think investors understand just how important xAI is to Tesla and the broader Muskonomy. Tesla’s relationship with xAI (financially and strategically) is deterministic to the long-term success of Tesla due in part to the natural synergies of data, software, hardware, and manufacturing in recursive loops. The values (and value systems) of both Tesla and xAI are endowed by the values of their shared creator. We believe this co-determination becomes more obvious in the next phases of physical AI/ autonomy for Tesla in the year ahead.”

Musk said, in response to Jonas’ note, that his companies are “surprisingly in some ways, trending toward convergence.”

My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 10, 2025

Mergers and shared ecosystems between companies are not new moves out of Musk’s playbook, as it has been done in the past, especially with Tesla acquiring other entities.

It did it with SolarCity in 2016 and with Maxwell Technologies in 2019. Investments between Musk companies have occurred before, too, as SpaceX dumped $2 billion into xAI last July.

He’s also said on several occasions that he could eventually bring everything together into some sort of single entity. In July 2024, he said:

“I’m not opposed to the idea in principle, but I’m not sure there is a pragmatic or legal way to merge them. There is also value in equity incentives of people at the companies being tied to that company’s accomplishments.”

This point is especially relevant now with Musk’s recently approved compensation package.

He also said in June, during an interview with CNBC , that “It’s not out of the question” for xAI to merge with Tesla, but it would have to be approved by shareholders. Just a few days later, he said he would not support xAI merging with Tesla; however, he put it in investors’ hands.

It’s more than just a deal; it’s symbiotic. Musk being at the helm of various companies, all intertwined with one another, helps foster recursive innovation. Despite these advantages, there are still a handful of things to consider, especially from a regulatory perspective.

However, it is not competition; it’s convergence. In Musk’s universe, especially from a business sense, mergers are not endpoints, but instead launchpads for ambitions that aim to take each company from Earth to lands beyond our atmosphere.

Elon Musk

Tesla makes Elon Musk’s new compensation package official

This is an important thing to note, as much of the media coverage regarding Musk’s pay package seems to indicate that the company and the shareholders are simply giving the CEO the money. He has to come through on each of these tranches to unlock the $1 trillion.

Published

9 hours ago

November 11, 2025

Joey Klender

Credit: @JoeTegtmeyer/X

Tesla has made CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package official, as it filed a Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday.

The package officially gives Musk the opportunity to acquire over 423 million shares of Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), dependent on his ability to achieve twelve performance-based tranches that will bring growth to the company and its shareholders.

Tesla (TSLA) shareholders officially approve Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award

Musk’s new compensation package was approved by investors last Thursday at the company’s Annual Shareholder Meeting, as over 75 percent of voters supported the CEO’s new plan, which could be valued at over $1 trillion if he is able to come through on all twelve tranches.

The twelve tranches include growth goals related to vehicle deliveries, the Optimus humanoid robot project, and Tesla’s valuation. If Musk is able to achieve each tranche, he would help Tesla achieve an over $8 trillion market cap.

The 12 tranches include:

$2 trillion market cap + Deliver 20 million Tesla vehicles cumulatively
$2.5 trillion market cap + Reach 10 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions
$3 trillion market cap + Deliver 1 million Optimus humanoid robots
$3.5 trillion market cap + Operate 1 million Robotaxis commercially
$4 trillion market cap + Hit $50 billion in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, etc.)
$4.5 trillion market cap + Hit $80 billion in adjusted EBITDA
$5 trillion market cap + Hit $130 billion in adjusted EBITDA
$5.5 trillion market cap + Hit $210 billion in adjusted EBITDA
$6 trillion market cap + Hit $300 billion in adjusted EBITDA
$6.5 trillion market cap + Hit $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA
$7.5 trillion market cap + Hit $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA for four straight quarters in a row
$8.5 trillion market cap + Hit $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA for four straight quarters in a row

Achieving the twelve levels of the new compensation package would also give Musk what he’s really after: a larger ownership share in Tesla, which would help him achieve more control, something he feels is necessary for the rollout of the Optimus robot “army.”

Musk does not earn a dime if he does not achieve any of the tranches above.