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Tesla’s goal of producing 1 million cars per year is closer than everyone thinks

(Credit: Evan Jarecki/Instagram)

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In classic Tesla fashion, Elon Musk shared an almost insane goal back in 2016. While speaking with analysts in a conference call, Musk remarked that he believes Tesla has a shot at achieving a production rate of 1 million cars a year. This statement was met with much criticism, considering that just the year prior, Tesla delivered just over 50,500 vehicles

As the US auto industry is starting what could very well be a long road to recovery from a pandemic, it is starting to become evident that Musk’s goal may end up being feasible after all.  

The year has been cruel to the automotive industry. Back in April, North American car factories that are known to produce about a million vehicles a month ended up producing fewer than 5,000 units. But while the year has been painful for the car industry, some recovery started becoming evident in recent months. Just last month, some large automakers reported sales that beat their 2019 numbers, hinting that an upswing may be on the way. 

Amidst this trend is the one outlier in the US auto industry: Tesla. The electric car maker has felt the full brunt of the pandemic, as shown in the extended closure of its Fremont Factory from mid-March to mid-May. Despite this, the company was able to show a profitable second quarter, and this past Q3, it delivered a record 139,300 vehicles, up 50% from Q2 2020. The company also produced 145,036 cars in the third quarter, up 76% from the second quarter. 

Tesla Model Y (Photo: Teslarati)
Tesla Model Y (Credit: Teslarati)

What is rather remarkable is that Tesla has decided to stand by its initial goal of delivering half a million cars this 2020. This target was already ambitious without the pandemic. With the pandemic, the company’s refusal to adjust its delivery targets seems downright insane. Yet if the company’s Q3 and potential Q4 results are any indication, Tesla may actually be closer to its 1-million-car-per-year goal than expected. 

Tesla has delivered about 318,000 vehicles so far this year. For Tesla to meet its goal of delivering 500,000 vehicles in 2020, the company would have to deliver over 180,000 cars in the fourth quarter. This is yet another record for the company, and it is one that would likely be challenging. RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, in a statement to The New York Times, noted that while 500,000 cars is “not an unattainable goal,” achieving it now “seems increasingly difficult.”

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Yet despite these challenges, the fact that Tesla seems to be in striking distance of its pre-pandemic 2020 delivery goal represents an incredibly notable shift for the company. Just a little over a year ago, after all, Tesla was a much different automaker. It was still an embattled EV company, seemingly scrambling to raise money while TSLA short-sellers circled like sharks smelling blood in the water. Tesla ultimately proved its critics wrong, posting four profitable quarters as of Q2 2020. 

If Tesla could come close or achieve its goal of producing and delivering over 180,000 vehicles in Q4 2020, the company would only be 70,000 cars short of a 250,000-vehicle-per-quarter run-rate. Once that is achieved, hitting 1 million cars per year in both production and deliveries will only be a matter of time. Granted, this is a rather ambitious step, but one must note that Tesla is pretty much taking on 2020 with just one and a half factories. 

(Credit: @FutureJurvetson/ Twitter)

Today, Tesla only produces cars in two sites: the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai. And even then, Giga Shanghai is not yet fully ramped, with the facility yet to start Model Y production and the Model 3 line has only started operating with 3 shifts. This means that this year, Tesla has pursued its ambitious goals with a main factory in the US that was closed for over a month and a Chinese plant whose Phase 1 is now just hitting its stride.

These circumstances will likely change by next year. Tesla is in the process of building two new vehicle production facilities: Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas. Both facilities are designed to produce high-volume vehicles, with the German plant manufacturing the Model Y and Texas building the Cybertruck, a vehicle that has received well over half a million orders, as per remarks from CEO Elon Musk. 

Of course, Tesla’s production and deliveries still only comprise a small part of the auto market. Yet despite this, the company’s rapid rise and the equally quick emergence of the electric vehicle sector means that Tesla is poised to dominate an industry that is still forming. Michelle Krebs, an executive editor at Cox Automotive, a market research firm, said it best in a statement to the NYT

“Tesla is the EV market right now. It’s still a tiny part of the market, and they are going to face more competition, but they are now well established,” she said. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving’s new version officially gets a wider rollout

So far, v14 has introduced a handful of new features and improvements, but the first versions needed refinement before Tesla made an effort to expand the population. It had issues with a brake stutter, but this has been mostly resolved.

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Credit: Tesla Europe and Middle East | X

Tesla’s newest Full Self-Driving version is officially rolling out wider to customers outside of the Early Access Program (EAP), in preparation for a total launch of the new v14 suite.

Over the past several weeks, Tesla has been working to refine its new v14 Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in an effort to have it ready for the entire fleet of vehicles in the United States. We are lucky enough to be in the EAP, so we’ve been able to test new features and rollouts first-hand.

So far, v14 has introduced a handful of new features and improvements, but the first versions needed refinement before Tesla made an effort to expand the population. It had issues with a brake stutter, but this has been mostly resolved.

Additionally, the rollout of the new Mad Max Speed Profile has gathered some attention.

Now that Tesla has started rolling out v14.1.3 yesterday to EAP members, the company ultimately decided that it was time to expand the software to more vehicles, as many owners are reporting that they’re receiving it:

Additionally, the suite has started to expand to Model S and Model X vehicles, so this rollout is not exclusive to Model 3 and Model Y:

The only issue with this rollout is that it still appears to be missing the Cybertruck, which Tesla was transparent about earlier this month. Although the company planned to release v14 to Cybertrucks by the end of the month, there has been no hint that this is going to happen.

This is already the third iteration of v14 in the past two weeks, indicating that Tesla is truly addressing the shortcomings of past versions and rolling out updates as quickly as possible.

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Tesla makes crazy move to spur short-term demand in the U.S.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has made a crazy move with its leasing terms in the United States to spur demand in the short term, as Q4 is moving along quickly.

The move is one that is pretty crazy in terms of the lease price, as one of the deals shows a drop of nearly one-quarter of the previous pricing. These deals are obviously being started to really drive demand over the next week and a half.

Tesla has offered new leasing terms on the Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck, cutting lease prices by 23 percent for the Model 3, 15 percent for the Model Y, and 7 percent for the Cybertruck.

New prices on these leases are as follows:

  • Tesla Model 3: $329/mo, down from $429 — 23 percent discount
  • Tesla Model Y: $449/mo, down from $529 — 15 percent discount
  • Tesla Cybertruck: $699/mo, down from $749 — 7 percent discount

The lease terms are $3,000 down, a 36-month lease term, and 10,000 miles per year. Tesla is also showing $0 down lease prices automatically on its website.

For the Model 3, these same terms with $0 down would be $419. The Model Y with $0 down would be $543 a month, and the Cybertruck would be $851 a month.

These terms are also for the entry-level configurations of each vehicle, so for the Model 3, it’s the Model 3 Standard. The Model Y price is for the Model Y Standard, and the Cybertruck is the All-Wheel-Drive.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

Tesla shows on their website that these lease deals are incredibly short-term and will adjust accordingly on November 1.

Why Tesla is launching these deals for ten days is not necessarily known, but it seems as if the company might be testing demand, as lease deals for the latter half of Q4 could be in the works.

Tesla traditionally launches some pretty tasty deals at the end of each quarter, but this move is somewhat interesting simply because it is not even remotely long-term.

It will be a good test to see if people are more incentivized to wait for these deals now that the $7,500 tax credit has been removed.

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Tesla Sweden faced with fresh strike from elevator company

Telecom and elevator service providers are the latest to join the widening labor blockade against the EV maker.

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Credit: NicklasNilsso14/X

Tesla’s operations in Sweden are facing fresh pressure as multiple unions intensify their long-running dispute against the electric vehicle maker. Industrial groups IF Metall and Seko have announced new blockades affecting elevator maintenance and telecom services, escalating their ongoing conflict with Tesla Sweden.

Work stoppages expand to elevator maintenance

Starting October 29, elevator manufacturer Cibes Kalea Sverige will halt all service and maintenance work at Tesla’s facilities under a full blockade ordered by IF Metall. The union’s move targets elevator service visits, which are typically required four times a year in Sweden. Cibes Kalea employs around 70 workers across six sites in Sweden and provides both passenger and freight elevator systems to clients, including Tesla, as noted in a report from Dagens Arbete.

The industrial action follows months of escalating measures from IF Metall, which has aimed to pressure Tesla into signing a collective bargaining agreement. Since early September, the union has initiated several blockades across Tesla’s Swedish network, including work stoppages involving suppliers like Holtab and Linde Material Handling.

This was despite Sweden’s Mediation Institute throwing in the towel at the unions and Tesla’s conflict. “We have tried in every possible way to get the parties to come closer to each other in a way that allows this conflict to end. But now we have come to the end of the road and have realized that it is just as good to end the case,” Director General Irene Wennemo said.

Telecom workers join expanding blockade

In a separate escalation, Seko, another major Swedish union, announced a strike targeting Tesla’s telecommunications infrastructure. “We are now putting a notice on the telecom area and this means that when it comes to networks, fiber or telephony, for example, we will not help where Tesla needs either service, maintenance or new installation of these parts,” Seko chair Gabriella Lavecchia told Sveriges Radio.

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Seko has already initiated blockades against Tesla’s postal service and charging stations. The union expects the telecom blockade to have even broader effects given Tesla’s reliance on connectivity for its charging and digital services. “There aren’t many companies in Sweden today that don’t need telephony, fiber, networks, and I would guess that Tesla needs it more than many others,” Lavecchia said.

With 12 strike notices issued in just a few weeks, the conflict shows no signs of easing as unions continue to coordinate pressure through multiple sectors.

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