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Tesla’s 42 million compact EV sales target is not as insane as it looks

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To state that Tesla’s Master Plan Part 3 is ambitious would be an understatement. The document itself is an extensive call to arms for every company to embrace sustainability. It also included aspirational targets for the Tesla vehicle lineup, present and future. 

Immediately noticeable in a table presented by the EV maker was the fact that its planned compact car, a next-generation vehicle expected to be produced in Giga Mexico, is expected to see sales of 42 million units in the long term. As per Master Plan Part 3, the global fleet of vehicles in the same segment is a whopping 686 million. 

Tesla bears and critics promptly pounced on the idea of Tesla aspirationally targeting sales of 42 million for a yet-to-be-released car. But it should be noted that while such a target seems ridiculous today, it is feasible. The target, after all, is most likely long-term, so it would not be achieved within the next few years.

Plus, attaining 42 million sales of one vehicle has already been done by an automaker. Back in 2021 alone, it was reported that the ubiquitous Toyota Corolla has already sold over 50 million units since it made its debut in 1966. That’s 50 million units sold across 12 generations. Other vehicles like the Volkswagen Golf are no slouch either, with 35.5 million units sold at the time. 

With this in mind, Tesla definitely has a chance to create the next Corolla or Golf with its upcoming compact car. There are already a number of affordable electric cars today that are priced in the same $25,000 range as Tesla’s upcoming compact EV. However, Tesla’s upcoming compact is expected to have superior range, performance, and overall value for money compared to existing players in the affordable EV segment. 

While the idea of a Tesla achieving the same number of sales as the Toyota Corolla seems like a pipe dream for now, one should keep in mind that the same reservations existed for the EV maker’s previous vehicles like the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover. Elon Musk has noted that the Model Y could very well become the world’s best-selling car by volume, and that’s becoming more realistic by the year. Considering that Tesla’s next-generation car is expected to outsell the Model Y by a huge margin, attaining similar sales as the Toyota Corolla definitely seems realistic. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla Model 3 named New Zealand’s best passenger car of 2025

Tesla flipped the switch on Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in September, turning every Model 3 and Model Y into New Zealand’s most advanced production car overnight.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

The refreshed Tesla Model 3 has won the DRIVEN Car Guide AA Insurance NZ Car of the Year 2025 award in the Passenger Car category, beating all traditional and electric rivals. 

Judges praised the all-electric sedan’s driving dynamics, value-packed EV tech, and the game-changing addition of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) that went live in New Zealand this September.

Why the Model 3 clinched the crown

DRIVEN admitted they were late to the “Highland” party because the updated sedan arrived in New Zealand as a 2024 model, just before the new Model Y stole the headlines. Yet two things forced a re-evaluation this year.

First, experiencing the new Model Y reminded testers how many big upgrades originated in the Model 3, such as the smoother ride, quieter cabin, ventilated seats, rear touchscreen, and stalk-less minimalist interior. Second, and far more importantly, Tesla flipped the switch on Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in September, turning every Model 3 and Model Y into New Zealand’s most advanced production car overnight.

FSD changes everything for Kiwi buyers

The publication called the entry-level rear-wheel-drive version “good to drive and represents a lot of EV technology for the money,” but highlighted that FSD elevates it into another league. “Make no mistake, despite the ‘Supervised’ bit in the name that requires you to remain ready to take control, it’s autonomous and very capable in some surprisingly tricky scenarios,” the review stated.

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At NZ$11,400, FSD is far from cheap, but Tesla also offers FSD (Supervised) on a $159 monthly subscription, making the tech accessible without the full upfront investment. That’s a game-changer, as it allows users to access the company’s most advanced system without forking over a huge amount of money.

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Tesla starts rolling out FSD V14.2.1 to AI4 vehicles including Cybertruck

FSD V14.2.1 was released just about a week after the initial FSD V14.2 update was rolled out.

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It appears that the Tesla AI team burned the midnight oil, allowing them to release FSD V14.2.1 on Thanksgiving. The update has been reported by Tesla owners with AI4 vehicles, as well as Cybertruck owners. 

For the Tesla AI team, at least, it appears that work really does not stop.

FSD V14.2.1

Initial posts about FSD V14.2.1 were shared by Tesla owners on social media platform X. As per the Tesla owners, V14.2.1 appears to be a point update that’s designed to polish the features and capacities that have been available in FSD V14. A look at the release notes for FSD V14.2.1, however, shows that an extra line has been added. 

“Camera visibility can lead to increased attention monitoring sensitivity.”

Whether this could lead to more drivers being alerted to pay attention to the roads more remains to be seen. This would likely become evident as soon as the first batch of videos from Tesla owners who received V14.21 start sharing their first drive impressions of the update. Despite the update being released on Thanksgiving, it would not be surprising if first impressions videos of FSD V14.2.1 are shared today, just the same.

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Rapid FSD releases

What is rather interesting and impressive is the fact that FSD V14.2.1 was released just about a week after the initial FSD V14.2 update was rolled out. This bodes well for Tesla’s FSD users, especially since CEO Elon Musk has stated in the past that the V14.2 series will be for “widespread use.” 

FSD V14 has so far received numerous positive reviews from Tesla owners, with numerous drivers noting that the system now drives better than most human drivers because it is cautious, confident, and considerate at the same time. The only question now, really, is if the V14.2 series does make it to the company’s wide FSD fleet, which is still populated by numerous HW3 vehicles. 

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Waymo rider data hints that Tesla’s Cybercab strategy might be the smartest, after all

These observations all but validate Tesla’s controversial two-seat Cybercab strategy, which has caught a lot of criticism since it was unveiled last year.

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Credit: wudapig/Reddit

Toyota Connected Europe designer Karim Dia Toubajie has highlighted a particular trend that became evident in Waymo’s Q3 2025 occupancy stats. As it turned out, 90% of the trips taken by the driverless taxis carried two or fewer passengers. 

These observations all but validate Tesla’s controversial two-seat Cybercab strategy, which has caught a lot of criticism since it was unveiled last year.

Toyota designer observes a trend

Karim Dia Toubajie, Lead Product Designer (Sustainable Mobility) at Toyota Connected Europe, analyzed Waymo’s latest California Public Utilities Commission filings and posted the results on LinkedIn this week.

“90% of robotaxi trips have 2 or less passengers, so why are we using 5-seater vehicles?” Toubajie asked. He continued: “90% of trips have 2 or less people, 75% of trips have 1 or less people.” He accompanied his comments with a graphic showing Waymo’s occupancy rates, which showed 71% of trips having one passenger, 15% of trips having two passengers, 6% of trips having three passengers, 5% of trips having zero passengers, and only 3% of trips having four passengers.

The data excludes operational trips like depot runs or charging, though Toubajie pointed out that most of the time, Waymo’s massive self-driving taxis are really just transporting 1 or 2 people, at times even no passengers at all. “This means that most of the time, the vehicle being used significantly outweighs the needs of the trip,” the Toyota designer wrote in his post.

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Cybercab suddenly looks perfectly sized

Toubajie gave a nod to Tesla’s approach. “The Tesla Cybercab announced in 2024, is a 2-seater robotaxi with a 50kWh battery but I still believe this is on the larger side of what’s required for most trips,” he wrote.

With Waymo’s own numbers now proving 90% of demand fits two seats or fewer, the wheel-less, lidar-free Cybercab now looks like the smartest play in the room. The Cybercab is designed to be easy to produce, with CEO Elon Musk commenting that its product line would resemble a consumer electronics factory more than an automotive plant. This means that the Cybercab could saturate the roads quickly once it is deployed.

While the Cybercab will likely take the lion’s share of Tesla’s ride-hailing passengers, the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover would be perfect for the remaining  9% of riders who require larger vehicles. This should be easy to implement for Tesla, as the Model Y and Model 3 are both mass-market vehicles. 

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