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Tesla’s 42 million compact EV sales target is not as insane as it looks

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To state that Tesla’s Master Plan Part 3 is ambitious would be an understatement. The document itself is an extensive call to arms for every company to embrace sustainability. It also included aspirational targets for the Tesla vehicle lineup, present and future. 

Immediately noticeable in a table presented by the EV maker was the fact that its planned compact car, a next-generation vehicle expected to be produced in Giga Mexico, is expected to see sales of 42 million units in the long term. As per Master Plan Part 3, the global fleet of vehicles in the same segment is a whopping 686 million. 

Tesla bears and critics promptly pounced on the idea of Tesla aspirationally targeting sales of 42 million for a yet-to-be-released car. But it should be noted that while such a target seems ridiculous today, it is feasible. The target, after all, is most likely long-term, so it would not be achieved within the next few years.

Plus, attaining 42 million sales of one vehicle has already been done by an automaker. Back in 2021 alone, it was reported that the ubiquitous Toyota Corolla has already sold over 50 million units since it made its debut in 1966. That’s 50 million units sold across 12 generations. Other vehicles like the Volkswagen Golf are no slouch either, with 35.5 million units sold at the time. 

With this in mind, Tesla definitely has a chance to create the next Corolla or Golf with its upcoming compact car. There are already a number of affordable electric cars today that are priced in the same $25,000 range as Tesla’s upcoming compact EV. However, Tesla’s upcoming compact is expected to have superior range, performance, and overall value for money compared to existing players in the affordable EV segment. 

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While the idea of a Tesla achieving the same number of sales as the Toyota Corolla seems like a pipe dream for now, one should keep in mind that the same reservations existed for the EV maker’s previous vehicles like the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover. Elon Musk has noted that the Model Y could very well become the world’s best-selling car by volume, and that’s becoming more realistic by the year. Considering that Tesla’s next-generation car is expected to outsell the Model Y by a huge margin, attaining similar sales as the Toyota Corolla definitely seems realistic. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla expands global FSD (Supervised) testing with Abu Dhabi trials

The program marks the emirate’s first formal testing framework for Tesla’s supervised autonomous driving technology.

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Tesla has started its first Full Self-Driving (Supervised) road trials in Abu Dhabi under the oversight of the Integrated Transport Centre, also known as Abu Dhabi Mobility. 

The program marks the emirate’s first formal testing framework for Tesla’s supervised autonomous driving technology.

FSD (Supervised) road trials are being conducted with the support of the Smart and Autonomous Systems Council and in coordination with the Legislation Lab at the General Secretariat of the UAE Cabinet.

Dr. Abdulla Hamad AlGhfeli, Acting Director General of the Integrated Transport Centre (Abu Dhabi Mobility), highlighted the agency’s regulatory role in overseeing the FSD (Supervised) tests in a press release

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“The supervision of the Integrated Transport Centre (Abu Dhabi Mobility) over the commencement of Tesla’s advanced autonomous driving technology tests reflects its regulatory and legislative role. These tests represent a qualitative step to evaluate the technology’s performance in a real-world operating environment and to collect the necessary data to verify its readiness before any future expansion in usage.

“Through this organized framework, and in cooperation with strategic partners, we seek to achieve a balance between supporting innovation and encouraging the adoption of smart solutions on one hand and ensuring the safety of road users on the other, in line with the emirate’s direction to develop an advanced, safe, and sustainable transport system,” he said. 

Tesla is putting a lot of effort into expanding the rollout of FSD (Supervised) to territories outside in the United States. During a recent interview with Giga Berlin plant manager Andre Thierig, Musk stated that Tesla is looking to secure approval for FSD (Supervised) in the Netherlands this coming March. 

“Tesla has the most advanced real-world AI, and hopefully, it will be approved soon in Europe. We’re told by the authorities that March 20th, it’ll be approved in the Netherlands,’ what I was told. Hopefully, that date remains the same. But I think people in Europe are going to be pretty blown away by how good the Tesla car AI is in being able to drive,” Musk stated.

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SpaceX considering confidential IPO filing this March: report

The filing could pave the way for a June listing at a valuation that may exceed $1.75 trillion.

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SpaceX is reportedly preparing to confidentially file for an initial public offering (IPO) as soon as March. The filing could pave the way for a June listing at a valuation that may exceed $1.75 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history.

The update was initially reported by Bloomberg News, which cited information shared by people reportedly familiar with the matter. 

As per the publication, a confidential filing allows a company to receive regulatory feedback before publicly releasing its financials. Bloomberg’s source, however, noted that the timing of SpaceX’s IPO is still under discussion and plans could change.

SpaceX did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

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A March submission would mark the clearest step yet toward bringing Elon Musk’s private space company into public markets. People familiar with the preparations said the offering could raise as much as $50 billion. That would surpass the $29 billion debut of Saudi Aramco in 2019, currently the largest IPO on record.

Major banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America Corp. are reportedly positioned for senior roles in the transaction. SpaceX is also said to be considering a dual-class structure that would allow insiders, including Musk, to retain enhanced voting control.

Satellite communications provider EchoStar Corp., which holds a stake in SpaceX, reportedly saw its shares rise following news of the potential filing.

At a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would immediately have a larger market cap than all but five of the companies traded in the S&P 500 index. That figure would place it ahead of Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc. by market capitalization, trailing only a small group of mega-cap firms such as Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp.

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The scale of the proposed valuation reflects SpaceX’s dominance in orbital launch services and its Starlink satellite network, which serves millions of users globally. The company has also outlined long-term expansion plans tied to higher Starship launch cadence, orbital infrastructure, and lunar development initiatives.

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Elon Musk hints Tesla investors will be rewarded heavily

“Hold onto your Tesla stock. It’s going to be worth a lot, I think. That’s my bet,” Musk said.

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Elon Musk recently hinted that he believes Tesla investors will be rewarded heavily if they continue to hold onto their shares, and he reiterated that in a new interview that the company released on its social accounts this week.

Musk is one of the most successful CEOs in the modern era and has mammothed competitors on the Forbes Net Worth List over the past year as his holdings in his various companies have continued to swell.

Tesla investors, especially those who have been holding shares for several years, have also felt substantial gains in their portfolios. Over the past five years, the stock is up over 78 percent. Since February 2019, nearly seven years ago to the day, the stock is up over 1,800 percent.

Musk said in the interview:

“Hold onto your Tesla stock. It’s going to be worth a lot, I think. That’s my bet.”

It’s no secret Musk has been extremely bullish on his own companies, but Tesla in particular, because it is publicly traded.

However, the company has so many amazing projects that have an opportunity to revolutionize their respective industries. There is certainly a path to major growth on Wall Street for Tesla through its various future projects, including Optimus, Cybercab, Semi, and Unsupervised FSD.

  • Optimus (Tesla’s humanoid robot): Musk has discussed its potential for tasks like childcare, walking dogs, or assisting elderly parents, positioning it as a massive long-term driver of company value.
  • Cybercab (Tesla’s robotaxi/autonomous ride-hailing vehicle): a fully autonomous vehicle geared specifically for Tesla’s ride-sharing ambitions.
  • Semi (Tesla’s electric truck, with mentions of expansion, like in Europe): brings Tesla into the commercial logistics sector.
  • Unsupervised FSD (Full Self-Driving software achieving full autonomy without human supervision): turns every Tesla owner’s vehicle into a fully-autonomous vehicle upon release

These projects specifically are some of the highest-growth pillars Tesla has ever attempted to develop, especially in Musk’s eyes, as he has said Optimus will be the best-selling product of all-time.

Many analysts agree, but the bullish ones, like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, are perhaps the one who believes Tesla has incredible potential on Wall Street, predicting a $2,600 price target for 2030, but this is not even including Optimus.

She told Bloomberg last March that she believes that the project will present a potential additive if Tesla can scale faster than anticipated.

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