Investor's Corner
Tesla’s CAPEX efficiencies could pave the way for a fleet of ‘Alien Dreadnought’ factories
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q3 10-Q Form for 2020 provided some interesting tidbits about the electric car maker’s plans for the coming years. Among these is the fact that the company is planning to increase its capital expenditures to about $4.5 to $6.0 billion in the next two fiscal years. These would be the highest expenditures that the company would be spending on its projects yet, with the amount rivaled only by 2017, when Tesla was dealing with the Model 3 ramp.
“Owing and subject to the foregoing as well as the pipeline of announced projects under development and all other continuing infrastructure growth, we currently expect our capital expenditures to be at the high end of our range of $2.5 to $3.5 billion in 2020 and increase to $4.5 to $6.0 billion in each of the next two fiscal years,” Tesla wrote.
While Tesla’s 10-Q Form noted that CAPEX will be higher than ever in the next couple of years, the company’s estimates still suggest that it has reached an incredible level of efficiency in terms of its expenses. It makes sense for Tesla’s CAPEX to be higher than it ever was, after all, since the company will be making more vehicles than ever before, and it would also be building factories in Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas. The company will be ramping its battery cell production capabilities as well.
As noted by Galileo Russell of YouTube’s Hyperchange channel, Tesla’s expectations for its CAPEX in 2021 and 2022 suggest that the electric car maker has become about five times more efficient on spending per unit of vehicle production compared to 2017. Interestingly enough, Elon Musk responded to the Tesla investor’s observations, lightly noting on Twitter that the company’s CAPEX efficiency back in 2017 was “trash.”
A look at Tesla’s capital expenditures over the years shows that Musk was telling the brutal truth. Back in 2017, Tesla’s CAPEX peaked at about $1.2 billion in one quarter as the company was launching the Model 3 in the Fremont Factory. Today, Tesla’s CAPEX has not broken this record, despite the electric car maker undergoing the Model Y ramp, the buildout of Gigafactory Shanghai, Giga Berlin, and Giga Texas, as well as an expansion of its battery production capabilities.
With this in mind, capital expenditures of $4.5 to $6.0 billion annually within the next two fiscal years seem to be a steal. This was mentioned by Russell on Twitter, and Musk responded by stating that the Tesla team has done excellent work over the years to make such progress possible.
What is rather remarkable is that Tesla is nowhere near done in the optimization of its operations. Over the years, and as the company attempts to hit its goal of producing millions of vehicles annually, there is a pretty good chance that Tesla would still improve and optimize its capital expenditures further. This would work in the company’s favor, especially as it attempts to build more factories and start the production of its upcoming electric vehicles like the Cybertruck, Semi, and the highly-anticipated $25,000 car.
If Tesla could accomplish these, the company would likely end up mastering the art of building electric car factories in a way that is frighteningly quick and capital-efficient, much like how it mastered the mass production of premium electric cars like the Model 3. This goes in line with Elon Musk’s statement back in July, when he noted on Twitter that the “Gigafactory is the product even more than the car.” The fact that every Tesla facility seems to be larger and more optimized than its predecessor highlights this idea.
During Battery Day, Elon Musk and Drew Baglino remarked that Tesla would need to produce an insane amount of batteries to achieve its goal of accelerating the advent of sustainable energy. This requires the company to build numerous factories at a rate that’s higher than ever before. With this in mind, there seems to be a good chance that Elon Musk’s “Alien Dreadnought” concept may see a resurgence in the near future. With a lineup of hyper-advanced factories that produce clean energy products at an optimal cost, after all, Tesla’s upcoming facilities may very well be considered as fleet of extraterrestrial machines that build machines.
Watch a discussion of Tesla’s CAPEX efficiency improvements in the video below.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.
Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.
It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.
Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.
He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.
Musk replied, basically confirming it:
As usual, Eric is accurate
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 10, 2025
Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.
AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.
It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.
The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.
But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.
On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.
🚨 Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating and $500 PT on Tesla $TSLA stock
Analyst Alexander Potter said FSD is near full autonomy and latest versions showed the largest improvement in disengagements, from 440 miles to 9,200 miles between critical interventions pic.twitter.com/u4WCLfZcA9
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 9, 2025
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.
Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.
Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.
Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.
Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it
With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.
Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.
Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
