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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s CAPEX efficiencies could pave the way for a fleet of ‘Alien Dreadnought’ factories

(Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q3 10-Q Form for 2020 provided some interesting tidbits about the electric car maker’s plans for the coming years. Among these is the fact that the company is planning to increase its capital expenditures to about $4.5 to $6.0 billion in the next two fiscal years. These would be the highest expenditures that the company would be spending on its projects yet, with the amount rivaled only by 2017, when Tesla was dealing with the Model 3 ramp. 

“Owing and subject to the foregoing as well as the pipeline of announced projects under development and all other continuing infrastructure growth, we currently expect our capital expenditures to be at the high end of our range of $2.5 to $3.5 billion in 2020 and increase to $4.5 to $6.0 billion in each of the next two fiscal years,” Tesla wrote

While Tesla’s 10-Q Form noted that CAPEX will be higher than ever in the next couple of years, the company’s estimates still suggest that it has reached an incredible level of efficiency in terms of its expenses. It makes sense for Tesla’s CAPEX to be higher than it ever was, after all, since the company will be making more vehicles than ever before, and it would also be building factories in Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas. The company will be ramping its battery cell production capabilities as well. 

(Credit: HyperCharts)

As noted by Galileo Russell of YouTube’s Hyperchange channel, Tesla’s expectations for its CAPEX in 2021 and 2022 suggest that the electric car maker has become about five times more efficient on spending per unit of vehicle production compared to 2017. Interestingly enough, Elon Musk responded to the Tesla investor’s observations, lightly noting on Twitter that the company’s CAPEX efficiency back in 2017 was “trash.” 

A look at Tesla’s capital expenditures over the years shows that Musk was telling the brutal truth. Back in 2017, Tesla’s CAPEX peaked at about $1.2 billion in one quarter as the company was launching the Model 3 in the Fremont Factory. Today, Tesla’s CAPEX has not broken this record, despite the electric car maker undergoing the Model Y ramp, the buildout of Gigafactory Shanghai, Giga Berlin, and Giga Texas, as well as an expansion of its battery production capabilities. 

With this in mind, capital expenditures of $4.5 to $6.0 billion annually within the next two fiscal years seem to be a steal. This was mentioned by Russell on Twitter, and Musk responded by stating that the Tesla team has done excellent work over the years to make such progress possible. 

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What is rather remarkable is that Tesla is nowhere near done in the optimization of its operations. Over the years, and as the company attempts to hit its goal of producing millions of vehicles annually, there is a pretty good chance that Tesla would still improve and optimize its capital expenditures further. This would work in the company’s favor, especially as it attempts to build more factories and start the production of its upcoming electric vehicles like the Cybertruck, Semi, and the highly-anticipated $25,000 car. 

If Tesla could accomplish these, the company would likely end up mastering the art of building electric car factories in a way that is frighteningly quick and capital-efficient, much like how it mastered the mass production of premium electric cars like the Model 3. This goes in line with Elon Musk’s statement back in July, when he noted on Twitter that the “Gigafactory is the product even more than the car.” The fact that every Tesla facility seems to be larger and more optimized than its predecessor highlights this idea. 

During Battery Day, Elon Musk and Drew Baglino remarked that Tesla would need to produce an insane amount of batteries to achieve its goal of accelerating the advent of sustainable energy. This requires the company to build numerous factories at a rate that’s higher than ever before. With this in mind, there seems to be a good chance that Elon Musk’s “Alien Dreadnought” concept may see a resurgence in the near future. With a lineup of hyper-advanced factories that produce clean energy products at an optimal cost, after all, Tesla’s upcoming facilities may very well be considered as fleet of extraterrestrial machines that build machines. 

Watch a discussion of Tesla’s CAPEX efficiency improvements in the video below.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla analyst issues stern warning to investors: forget Trump-Musk feud

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Credit: Tesla

A Tesla analyst today said that investors should not lose sight of what is truly important in the grand scheme of being a shareholder, and that any near-term drama between CEO Elon Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump should not outshine the progress made by the company.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Management said that Tesla’s progress in autonomy is a much larger influence and a significantly bigger part of the company’s story than any disagreement between political policies.

Munster appeared on CNBC‘s “Closing Bell” yesterday to reiterate this point:

“One thing that is critical for Tesla investors to remember is that what’s going on with the business, with autonomy, the progress that they’re making, albeit early, is much bigger than any feud that is going to happen week-to-week between the President and Elon. So, I understand the reaction, but ultimately, I think that cooler heads will prevail. If they don’t, autonomy is still coming, one way or the other.”

This is a point that other analysts like Dan Ives of Wedbush and Cathie Wood of ARK Invest also made yesterday.

On two occasions over the past month, Musk and President Trump have gotten involved in a very public disagreement over the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which officially passed through the Senate yesterday and is making its way to the House of Representatives.

Tesla analysts believe Musk and Trump feud will pass

Musk is upset with the spending in the bill, while President Trump continues to reiterate that the Tesla CEO is only frustrated with the removal of an “EV mandate,” which does not exist federally, nor is it something Musk has expressed any frustration with.

In fact, Musk has pushed back against keeping federal subsidies for EVs, as long as gas and oil subsidies are also removed.

Nevertheless, Ives and Wood both said yesterday that they believe the political hardship between Musk and President Trump will pass because both realize the world is a better place with them on the same team.

Munster’s perspective is that, even though Musk’s feud with President Trump could apply near-term pressure to the stock, the company’s progress in autonomy is an indication that, in the long term, Tesla is set up to succeed.

Tesla launched its Robotaxi platform in Austin on June 22 and is expanding access to more members of the public. Austin residents are now reporting that they have been invited to join the program.

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Tesla surges following better-than-expected delivery report

Tesla saw some positive momentum during trading hours as it reported its deliveries for Q2.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged over four percent on Wednesday morning after the company reported better-than-expected deliveries. It was nearly right on consensus estimations, as Wall Street predicted the company would deliver 385,000 cars in Q2.

Tesla reported that it delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2. Many, including those inside the Tesla community, were anticipating deliveries in the 340,000 to 360,000 range, while Wall Street seemed to get it just right.

Tesla delivers 384,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, deploys 9.6 GWh in energy storage

Despite Tesla meeting consensus estimations, there were real concerns about what the company would report for Q2.

There were reportedly brief pauses in production at Gigafactory Texas during the quarter and the ramp of the new Model Y configuration across the globe were expected to provide headwinds for the EV maker during the quarter.

At noon on the East Coast, Tesla shares were up about 4.5 percent.

It is expected that Tesla will likely equal the number of deliveries it completed in both of the past two years.

It has hovered at the 1.8 million mark since 2023, and it seems it is right on pace to match that once again. Early last year, Tesla said that annual growth would be “notably lower” than expected due to its development of a new vehicle platform, which will enable more affordable models to be offered to the public.

These cars are expected to be unveiled at some point this year, as Tesla said they were “on track” to be produced in the first half of the year. Tesla has yet to unveil these vehicle designs to the public.

Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a note to investors this morning that the company’s rebound in China in June reflects good things to come, especially given the Model Y and its ramp across the world.

He also said that Musk’s commitment to the company and return from politics played a major role in the company’s performance in Q2:

“If Musk continues to lead and remain in the driver’s seat, we believe Tesla is on a path to an accelerated growth path over the coming years with deliveries expected to ramp in the back-half of 2025 following the Model Y refresh cycle.”

Ives maintained his $500 price target and the ‘Outperform’ rating he held on the stock:

“Tesla’s future is in many ways the brightest it’s ever been in our view given autonomous, FSD, robotics, and many other technology innovations now on the horizon with 90% of the valuation being driven by autonomous and robotics over the coming years but Musk needs to focus on driving Tesla and not putting his political views first. We maintain our OUTPERFORM and $500 PT.”

Moving forward, investors will look to see some gradual growth over the next few quarters. At worst, Tesla should look to match 2023 and 2024 full-year delivery figures, which could be beaten if the automaker can offer those affordable models by the end of the year.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla delivers 384,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, deploys 9.6 GWh in energy storage

The quarter’s 9.6 GWh energy storage deployment marks one of Tesla’s highest to date.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has released its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. As per the report, the company delivered over 384,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025, while deploying 9.6 GWh in energy storage. Vehicle production also reached 410,244 units for the quarter.

Model 3/Y dominates output, ahead of earnings call

Of the 410,244 vehicles produced during the quarter, 396,835 were Model 3 and Model Y units, while 13,409 were attributed to Tesla’s other models, which includes the Cybertruck and Model S/X variants. Deliveries followed a similar pattern, with 373,728 Model 3/Ys delivered and 10,394 from other models, totaling 384,122.

The quarter’s 9.6 GWh energy storage deployment marks one of Tesla’s highest to date, signaling continued strength in the Megapack and Powerwall segments.

Credit: Tesla Investor Relations

Year-on-year deliveries edge down, but energy shows resilience

Tesla will share its full Q2 2025 earnings results after the market closes on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, with a live earnings call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. CT / 5:30 p.m. ET. The company will publish its quarterly update at ir.tesla.com, followed by a Q&A webcast featuring company leadership. Executives such as CEO Elon Musk are expected to be in attendance.

Tesla investors are expected to inquire about several of the company’s ongoing projects in the upcoming Q2 2025 earnings call. Expected topics include the new Model Y ramp across the United States, China, and Germany, as well as the ramp of FSD in territories outside the US and China. Questions about the company’s Robotaxi business, as well as the long-referenced but yet to be announced affordable models are also expected.

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