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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s CAPEX efficiencies could pave the way for a fleet of ‘Alien Dreadnought’ factories

(Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q3 10-Q Form for 2020 provided some interesting tidbits about the electric car maker’s plans for the coming years. Among these is the fact that the company is planning to increase its capital expenditures to about $4.5 to $6.0 billion in the next two fiscal years. These would be the highest expenditures that the company would be spending on its projects yet, with the amount rivaled only by 2017, when Tesla was dealing with the Model 3 ramp. 

“Owing and subject to the foregoing as well as the pipeline of announced projects under development and all other continuing infrastructure growth, we currently expect our capital expenditures to be at the high end of our range of $2.5 to $3.5 billion in 2020 and increase to $4.5 to $6.0 billion in each of the next two fiscal years,” Tesla wrote

While Tesla’s 10-Q Form noted that CAPEX will be higher than ever in the next couple of years, the company’s estimates still suggest that it has reached an incredible level of efficiency in terms of its expenses. It makes sense for Tesla’s CAPEX to be higher than it ever was, after all, since the company will be making more vehicles than ever before, and it would also be building factories in Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas. The company will be ramping its battery cell production capabilities as well. 

(Credit: HyperCharts)

As noted by Galileo Russell of YouTube’s Hyperchange channel, Tesla’s expectations for its CAPEX in 2021 and 2022 suggest that the electric car maker has become about five times more efficient on spending per unit of vehicle production compared to 2017. Interestingly enough, Elon Musk responded to the Tesla investor’s observations, lightly noting on Twitter that the company’s CAPEX efficiency back in 2017 was “trash.” 

A look at Tesla’s capital expenditures over the years shows that Musk was telling the brutal truth. Back in 2017, Tesla’s CAPEX peaked at about $1.2 billion in one quarter as the company was launching the Model 3 in the Fremont Factory. Today, Tesla’s CAPEX has not broken this record, despite the electric car maker undergoing the Model Y ramp, the buildout of Gigafactory Shanghai, Giga Berlin, and Giga Texas, as well as an expansion of its battery production capabilities. 

With this in mind, capital expenditures of $4.5 to $6.0 billion annually within the next two fiscal years seem to be a steal. This was mentioned by Russell on Twitter, and Musk responded by stating that the Tesla team has done excellent work over the years to make such progress possible. 

What is rather remarkable is that Tesla is nowhere near done in the optimization of its operations. Over the years, and as the company attempts to hit its goal of producing millions of vehicles annually, there is a pretty good chance that Tesla would still improve and optimize its capital expenditures further. This would work in the company’s favor, especially as it attempts to build more factories and start the production of its upcoming electric vehicles like the Cybertruck, Semi, and the highly-anticipated $25,000 car. 

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If Tesla could accomplish these, the company would likely end up mastering the art of building electric car factories in a way that is frighteningly quick and capital-efficient, much like how it mastered the mass production of premium electric cars like the Model 3. This goes in line with Elon Musk’s statement back in July, when he noted on Twitter that the “Gigafactory is the product even more than the car.” The fact that every Tesla facility seems to be larger and more optimized than its predecessor highlights this idea. 

During Battery Day, Elon Musk and Drew Baglino remarked that Tesla would need to produce an insane amount of batteries to achieve its goal of accelerating the advent of sustainable energy. This requires the company to build numerous factories at a rate that’s higher than ever before. With this in mind, there seems to be a good chance that Elon Musk’s “Alien Dreadnought” concept may see a resurgence in the near future. With a lineup of hyper-advanced factories that produce clean energy products at an optimal cost, after all, Tesla’s upcoming facilities may very well be considered as fleet of extraterrestrial machines that build machines. 

Watch a discussion of Tesla’s CAPEX efficiency improvements in the video below.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Why automakers keep turning down Elon Musk’s Tesla Full Self-Driving offer

Elon Musk confirms no automaker has ever accepted Tesla’s offer to license Full Self-Driving software.

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Elon Musk gave a brief answer on X Monday that confirmed that Tesla’s standing offer to license Full Self-Driving to other automakers still has zero takers. Sawyer Merritt wrote that “Tesla has for years openly invited other automakers to license FSD. None of them have accepted,” responding to a prediction from Boom Supersonic founder Blake Scholl that Tesla would eventually open FSD the way it opened its Supercharger network to rival brands. Musk’s reply to Merritt was one word: “Exactly.”

It is not the first time Musk has made this point. He said something similar in November, when he called legacy automakers reluctance to adopt FSD “crazy,” and Tesla has floated the offer publicly since at least 2021. Scholl’s prediction touches on something real. Once NACS became the de facto charging standard, adoption from Ford, GM, Rivian and others followed within about a year. FSD licensing was supposed to work the same way once Tesla built enough of a lead that switching made sense for everyone.

The case for licensing now is stronger than it was two years ago. Waymo and Zoox are logging hundreds of thousands of unsupervised autonomous miles, along with Tesla’s own Robotaxi fleet. Every automaker still selling driver assist systems that lag FSD has given the robotaxi conversation to Tesla, Waymo and Zoox by default. Licensing FSD would let a GM or a Ford compete on the same field without spending a decade and billions of dollars building a stack from scratch, the same argument Tesla made when it opened the Supercharger network to bring more EVs onto its chargers.

But FSD is not a connector standard. As one reply to Musk’s post pointed out, licensing FSD is not a software license the way NACS was a plug spec. It requires adopting Tesla’s eight camera layout and its onboard compute architecture, meaning a licensee’s cars would effectively become Tesla hardware wearing someone else’s badge. That is the visible obstacle. The less visible one is data. A licensed FSD stack would report back the same telemetry Tesla collects from its own fleet, giving Tesla a continuous read on how a competitor’s cars are actually driven, where they struggle, and how often drivers intervene. For an automaker trying to build its own autonomy program, or simply trying to keep its build quality and safety record private, handing Tesla that visibility could be a bigger cost than the hardware bill. It is the reason the Supercharger comparison only goes so far. Opening a charging plug cost Tesla very little. Opening FSD would cost a rival something it cannot get back.

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Elon Musk

Tesla eyes supply partners for Optimus mass production

Tesla certified three Chinese suppliers for Optimus mass production, signaling its robot timeline is accelerating.

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Concept rendering of Tesla Optimus in mass production

Tesla’s robotics team traveled to Ningbo, in China’s Zhejiang province, on September 16 and spent the following day auditing component suppliers for Optimus, according to a Bloomberg report cited by RobotAIGeek. The visit moved three manufacturers from provisional status to certified mass production partners: Tuopu Group, which handles actuators and chassis components, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, a sensor supplier, and Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls, which builds thermal management systems. All three already supply parts to Tesla’s electric vehicles, and the audit reportedly came with fresh orders that supply chain reports put at an initial batch of roughly 5,000 units.

Tuopu, Joyson, and Sanhua built their manufacturing base serving the automotive industry, where tolerances and volume requirements are already close to what a mass produced humanoid robot demands. Sanhua in particular has history here. Teslarati reported last October that the company had received a roughly $685 million order for linear actuators tied to Optimus, a volume industry watchers estimated could cover around 180,000 robots once production ramped.

Supply chain reports tied to this week’s audit put Tesla’s near term production goal at about 1,000 Optimus units a week by late September, rising to 2,000 to 2,500 units a week by the end of the year. That pace would put real weight behind the timeline Tesla has been building toward since May, when it wound down Model S and Model X production at Fremont to convert that floor space into a dedicated Optimus line targeting one million units annually. JPMorgan analysts who toured the factory in August confirmed the conversion took roughly four months, a pace Musk has called unprecedented for a facility that size.

New drone video shows Tesla’s Optimus Factory reaching a turning point

Fremont is only the first phase. A second, larger Optimus plant is rising at Gigafactory Texas, where drone footage shared by Joe Tegtmeyer last week showed the structural steel nearing completion on the north end of the building. Tesla has said that facility is meant to eventually support production of up to 10 million units a year, though volume output there is not expected before 2027.

Commercial sales of Optimus are still targeted for the second half of 2027, but production is expected to start well before then. JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta has said Tesla’s “Optimus Academy” program, which uses early units to collect real world training data inside Tesla’s own facilities, is expected to be running later this year. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma described the Ningbo audits as “a positive commercialization signal for China’s humanoid supply chain,” noting that sentiment could improve further if the visit leads to confirmed supplier nominations and larger orders. The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index rose about 1.4% on the news, though it remains down roughly 30% for the year.

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Investor's Corner

New drone video shows Tesla’s Optimus Factory reaching a turning point

New drone footage shows Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory steel frame nearing completion at Giga Texas.

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Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory at Gigafactory Texas is closing in on a finished steel frame, according to drone footage posted Thursday afternoon by longtime site observer Joe Tegtmeyer. In the video, Tegtmeyer said structural steel assembly is now about five column grids away from reaching the building’s north perimeter beam, putting the primary skeleton in its final stretch roughly six months after Tesla broke ground on the North Campus site in late March.

Tegtmeyer’s footage shows concrete already going in on three upper floors while crews continue laying rebar and pouring grade beam footings at ground level. That kind of parallel work, steel rising at one end of the site while concrete sets at the other, is a scheduling approach Tesla used at the original Giga Texas building and appears to be repeating here to save time before the plant’s targeted 2027 production start.

Teslarati has tracked the building’s progress since Tesla confirmed construction was officially underway in May, when the first steel structure went up on what was then bare, reclaimed land. The facility is part of a more than 5.2 million square foot expansion of Giga Texas’s North Campus that Tesla has said will eventually run nearly the length of the existing vehicle factory, over 4,000 feet, while sitting somewhat narrower. Musk has pegged the long term output target at 10 million Optimus units a year once the line is running at full capacity, a volume that would dwarf the one million unit pilot line Tesla is standing up separately at its Fremont, California factory.

Tesla Giga Texas to feature massive Optimus V4 production line

The Texas facility sits alongside another major buildout on the same campus. Terafab, the joint Tesla and SpaceX chip fabrication plant that will eventually supply the silicon running Optimus units in the field. Housing robot assembly and chip production on the same grounds is a deliberate supply chain decision, cutting down on the shipping and lead time that would otherwise sit between the two.

Tesla has not given an updated timeline beyond its previously stated goal of bringing high volume Optimus production online at the site in the summer of 2027. Fremont’s smaller pilot line began mass producing the current Gen 3 robot in January, with that plant expected to build tens of thousands of units this year primarily to generate the real world data Tesla needs to refine the robot’s software before Giga Texas ramps up. Six months of visible construction progress, tracked almost entirely through Tegtmeyer’s recurring drone flights, gives the clearest outside look yet at how seriously Tesla is treating that 2027 deadline.

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