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Tesla Battery Day can mean doomsday for legacy carmakers shifting to electric
Tesla is expected to hold its Battery Day in April as Elon Musk announced during the company’s Q4 earnings call. The chief executive said the company has a “compelling story” to tell about things that can “blow people’s minds.” These statements do not only pique the interest of the electric vehicle community; they also hint of updates that can spell disaster for legacy car manufacturers trying to catch up with Tesla in the electric vehicle market.
Batteries are key to staying on top of the electric vehicle segment and Tesla is the leader of the pack when it comes to batteries and energy efficiency. This has been validated by organizations such as Consumer Reports and even by competitors who go deep into their pockets and go as far as cutting their workforces to catch Tesla in terms of hardware, software, and battery technology.
Come Tesla Battery Day, the obvious would be made more obvious. Tesla could further widen the gap and set itself apart from the rest, not just as the maker of the Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck or other vehicles in its lineup but as an energy company.
Mass Production Of Cheaper Batteries
Batteries are among the most expensive components of an electric vehicle. This is true for Tesla and other electric vehicle manufacturers. With pricey batteries, car manufacturers cannot lower prices of their vehicles and therefore cannot encourage the mass adoption of zero-emission cars.
Tesla has reportedly been running its “Roadrunner” secret project that can lead to mass production of battery cells at $100/kWh. According to rumors, Tesla already has a pilot manufacturing line in its Fremont facility that can produce higher-density batteries using technology advancements developed in-house and gained through the Maxwell acquisition. With a $100/kWh battery, the prices of Tesla’s vehicles can be competitive even without government subsidies.
Aside from the Roadrunner project, Tesla has also been setting itself up to succeed in the battery game and dominate the market with its partnerships. It has a long relationship with Panasonic that helped it manufacture batteries in Giga Nevada, but has also signed battery supply agreements with LG Chem and CATL in China.
Battery prices have been going down significantly in the last decade. According to BloombergNEF, the cost of batteries dropped by 13% last year. From $1,100/kWh in 2010, the price went down to around $156.kWh in 2019. This is predicted to come close to the target $100/kWh by 2023. If Tesla achieves the $100/kWH cost sooner than the rest, it will give the company a massive advantage over its competitors and that will eventually lead to better profit margins.
Aside from cheaper batteries, the increased battery production capacity is also key in bringing products such as the all-electric Cybertruck and Tesla Semi to life.
“The thing we’re going to be really focused on is increasing battery production capacity because that’s very fundamental because if you don’t improve battery production capacity, then you end up just shifting unit volume from one product to another and you haven’t actually produced more electric vehicles… make sure we get a very steep ramp in battery production and continue to improve the cost per kilowatt-hour of the batteries,” Musk said during the Q4 2019 earnings call.
Enhanced Tesla Batteries
Tesla already has good batteries through its years of research, experimentation, and partnerships with battery producers. It has invested a good amount of money and effort to make sure it’s leading the battery game.
This advantage is made very clear on how Tesla was able to produce the most efficient electric SUV today in the form of the soon-to-be-released Model Y crossover with an EPA rating of 315 miles per single charge versus the Porsche Taycan with a range of around 200 miles.
With the acquired technologies from companies such as Maxwell and recently a possible purchase of a lithium-ion battery cell specialist startup in Colorado, Tesla demonstrates it’s not stopping its efforts to perfect its battery technology. Maxwell manufactures battery components and ultracapacitors and it’s just a matter of time before Tesla makes use of these technologies.
When asked about Maxwell’s ultracapacitor technology during the Q4 2019 earnings call, Musk said, “It’s an important piece of the puzzle.”
Musk also referenced the Maxwell acquisition during an extensive interview at the Third Row Podcast. “It’s kind of a big deal. Maxwell has a bunch of technologies that if they are applied in the right way I think can have a very big impact,” Musk said during a Third Row Podcast interview.
There are rumors out of China claiming that Tesla may come up with a battery that combines the best traits of Maxwell’s supercapacitors and dry electrode technologies. This could mean batteries that could charge faster, pack more energy density, and last longer.
Controlling Battery Supply
Knowing what works and what doesn’t for electric car batteries puts Tesla on top of the game. Of course, add to that what could be the best battery management system that makes Tesla vehicles among the most efficient if not the best in utilizing their batteries. With the advantage on hardware and software fronts, the thought of Tesla becoming a battery supplier is far from being a crazy idea.
Its competitors such as Audi and Jaguar have recently expressed concerns about their battery supplies as they both depend on LG Chem. Tesla– aside from its partnerships with Panasonic, LG Chem, and CATL — pushes the limit to develop its new battery cells in-house and that opens up a lot of possibilities for Tesla as a business.
“It would be consistent with the mission of Tesla to help other car companies with electric vehicles on the battery and powertrain front, possibly on other fronts. So it’s something we’re open to. We’re definitely open to supplying batteries and powertrains and perhaps other things to other car companies,” Musk was quoted as saying.
Recent job postings for a cell development engineer and equipment development engineers suggest that Tesla might actually be considering the idea of introducing a battery line of its own. But of course, the next-generation batteries would be first used for its vehicle lineup. Once it meets that demand and hits economies of scale, one can only imagine how Tesla could play the important role of supplying batteries to other carmakers.
Whether Tesla would announce cheaper batteries, enhanced electric car batteries, or give updates about its efforts, Battery Day in April will most definitely be worth the wait. For other car manufacturers, time would pause during that day as they listen to what Elon Musk and his team will say. And most likely, after the company talk, other car manufacturers will have to go back to their drawing boards once more in an attempt to catch up.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
