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Tesla bull lowers price target citing ‘brand crisis’
Tesla stock could be in trouble if Elon Musk doesn’t “step up and read the room,” according to one longtime bull.
One analyst who has been a long-standing Tesla (TSLA) bull has significantly cut his price target on the company’s stock, citing recent backlash against CEO Elon Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump, though he also notes that his firm remains bullish.
In a note to clients on Sunday, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said that the firm lowered its price target on Tesla’s stock from $550 to $315, maintaining an Outperform rating. The analyst says that the 43-percent cut is the result of a “full-blown brand crisis” that was caused by Musk, and that, combined with the Trump administration’s global tariffs, the two have created the “perfect storm for Tesla.”
“Tesla has essentially become a political symbol globally….and that is a very bad thing for the future of this disruptive tech stalwart and the brand crisis tornado that has now turned into an F5 tornado,” Ives wrote. “We now estimate Tesla has lost/destroyed at least 10 percent of its future customer base globally based on self created brand issues and this could be a conservative estimate. In Europe, this number could be 20 percent or higher….all self-inflicted by Musk.”
READ MORE ON TESLA/WEDBUSH: Tesla bull Wedbush responds to Q1 deliveries: ‘A disaster on every metric’
Ives continues on that the company has “unfortunately become a political symbol because of Musk,” highlighting the global anti-Trump and Musk protests, and vandalism that many have lodged against owners of Tesla’s vehicles in recent months.
He also acknowledged that Tesla would be “less exposed to tariffs than some” that source a higher portion of vehicle components abroad, though the tariffs are still widely expected to disrupt the company. The analyst notes that Tesla’s continued performance in China will remain “the bigger worry,” as tariff backlash could also drive consumers even further toward domestic options such as BYD, Nio, or Xpeng Motors.
Ives also called for Musk to “step up, read the room, and be a leader” during this time, noting that this year could be particularly painful for the stock if he does not “exit stage left or take a step back on DOGE in the coming month.”
also acknowledges certain upcoming bright spots for the stock, including unsupervised Full Self-Driving rolling out this summer and lower-cost models.
“Our long standing bull view of Tesla remains, but there is no denying this is a pivotal moment of truth for Musk to turn things around…or darker days are ahead,” the analyst adds. “We have been one of the biggest supporters of Musk and Tesla over the last decade….but this situation is not sustainable and the brand of Tesla is suffering by the day as a political symbol.
“Musk has been with his back against the wall many times and every time Tesla came out of it and was stronger on the other side…this may be one of his biggest challenges yet to turn around.”
Ives has been a longtime supporter of Musk and Tesla, and he has held one of the highest price targets on the company for the past several months. In January, Ives bumped his Tesla price target from $515 to $550, along with setting a bull-case price target of $650. As for his reasoning, he noted that the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) rollout would likely be fast-tracked by the Trump administration, adding that the firm was confident in 2025 demand.
You can read a longer excerpt from the Sunday note from Ives below.
The bigger worry in our opinion is Tesla’s success in China as this key region is the linchpin to the future success of Tesla. The backlash from Trump tariff policies in China and Musk’s association will be hard to understate and this will further drive Chinese consumers to buy domestic such as BYD, Nio, Xpeng, and others. Tesla has essentially become a political symbol globally….and that is a very bad thing for the future of this disruptive tech stalwart and the brand crisis tornado that has now turned into an F5 tornado. We now estimate Tesla has lost/destroyed at least 10 percent of its future customer base globally based on self created brand issues and this could be a conservative estimate. In Europe, this number could be 20 percent or higher….all self-inflicted by Musk.
Tesla has unfortunately become a political symbol because of Musk and this is a very bad thing for the future of this technology stalwart. With major protests erupting globally at Tesla dealerships, Tesla cars being keyed, and a full brand crisis tornado turning into a life of its own this has cast a dark black cloud over Tesla’s stock. The future is so bright for Tesla with Austin’s unsupervised FSD, lower-cost vehicles, and of course the autonomous and robotics future….but this is a full blown crisis Tesla is navigating now (along with these tariffs), and it is time for Musk to step up, read the room, and be a leader in this time of uncertainty.
For the stock, the demand destruction for Tesla and brand damage is real and has morphed into something much more concerning over the past few months. The 1Q delivery number was a disaster as we discussed last week but this could be a brutal year ahead if Musk does not exit stage left or take a step back on DOGE in the coming month. We are taking a stab at new reduced estimates for 2025/2026 which could be a moving target with the tariffs, retaliatory, and the China wild card.
Our long standing bull view of Tesla remains, but there is no denying this is a pivotal moment of truth for Musk to turn things around…or darker days are ahead. We have been one of the biggest supporters of Musk and Tesla over the last decade….but this situation is not sustainable and the brand of Tesla is suffering by the day as a political symbol. Musk has been with his back against the wall many times and every time Tesla came out of it and was stronger on the other side…this may be one of his biggest challenges yet to turn around.
This Tesla executive is leaving the company after over 12 years
Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
