News
What Tesla Cybertruck pricing could look like based on inflation
Tesla Cybertruck deliveries are set to begin in roughly one month on November 30 at Gigafactory Texas. Although Tesla confirmed this significant detail last week during its Quarterly Earnings Call, the automaker left out a few important details, including available trim levels and pricing.
While NHTSA documents confirmed trim levels just a few days after Earnings last week, pricing still remains up in the air, and there could be several reasons for this.
One could be the uncertainty of market conditions, as Tesla has routinely changed prices in 2023, and announcing a specific cost of each trim now could change by the time deliveries roll around. Another reason is that Tesla could simply be undecided or not ready to announce a price.
This vehicle is so anticipated that it could likely make early reservation holders pay a premium. With uncertainty looming in macroeconomic conditions, the company could try and make the most of the early deliveries.
While the Semi was produced and delivered to its first buyers without a price, we don’t expect Tesla to do the same with the Cybertruck. The Semi is an entirely different vehicle class and not something that will be driven on roads by the everyday person.
Even though pricing has remained relatively out of the public realm since Tesla delivered the first Semi units to PepsiCo. last year, there is no way the company would or could do this with the Cybertruck, a vehicle that has amassed over 1 million orders, CEO Elon Musk said on the Call last week.
-
Nevertheless, there is data out there that could point us in the right direction, giving us a rough estimate of what the Cybertruck could cost based on the price of full-size pickups in 2019 when the vehicle and pricing for the trims available at that time were announced.
Using data from Kelley Blue Book, the cost of the Cybertruck would have theoretically increased by 30.7 percent. In November 2019, a full-size pickup’s average price was $51,140, not including applied consumer incentives. Over the next four years, leading up to 2023, the cost of pickups has increased every year, except for this year, as the average cost of a new truck decreased by about $1,500 from 2022.
The most recent KBB data available is for September 2023, when Full-Size Pickups landed at an average transaction price of $66,841.
When Tesla announced the Cybertruck in 2019, there were three trims: Single, Dual, and Tri-Motor. They were priced at $39,990, $49,990, and $69,990, respectively. With only the Dual and Tri-Motor configurations still standing, we can calculate what the Cybertruck would cost today in a perfect world.
With the 30.7 percent increase in new, full-size pickup prices since 2019, the Cybertruck would, in a perfect world, cost:
- Dual Motor – from $49,990 in 2019 to – $65,336.93, an increase of $15,346.93.
- Tri Motor – from $69,990 in 2019 to – $91,476.93, an increase of $21,486.93.
Of course, this is in no way a confirmation of Tesla’s pricing, as it could have many other things factored into the cost, especially as the vehicle has changed in sizing and design over the past four years.
The price of the Cybertruck has been highly speculated since Tesla removed pricing from the Online Design Studio a few years ago, as it was still mulling over potential configurations.
It has not stopped people from posting things on social media stating they have been contacted by Tesla and given a price for their Cybertruck reservations, either.
-
Hmm… is the Tri-Motor Performance Cybertruck pricing set? $98,990 before FSD and the usual taxes & delivery fees… wow that’s a lot of coin. pic.twitter.com/uQyvH0NxR9
— ?TACOS +⚡️TESLAS (@TacosandTeslas) October 24, 2023
Tesla will likely start contacting reservation holders soon to set up their delivery, as the first units will be handed over at a delivery event at Gigafactory Texas.
How much do you think the Cybertruck will cost? Let me know your estimates! Email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
-
Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
-
High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
-
Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Tesla headlights have caused a recall of over 20,000 of the company’s two most popular vehicles, the Model 3 and Model Y, due to the low-beam bulb exceeding the maximum allowed intensity according to federal standards.
Tesla initiated the recall with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) this morning, stating that the low-beam output “exceeds the maximum allowed intensity in the outer upper-right and outer upper-left areas of the 10U and 90U zone, as prescribed in FMVSS No. 108.”
Tesla sourced the impacted headlights from Marelli Automotive Lighting, a Mexico-based company. The recall impacts 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles and 2017-2023 Model 3 vehicles. It is estimated that every VIN in this recall is impacted by the defect.
🚨 Tesla is recalling 20,349 2020-23 Model Y vehicles and 2017-23 Model 3 vehicles due to an excessively bright headlamp low beam.
Currently, there is no remedy plan in place, as it is still being developed. pic.twitter.com/y34cIO2U0B
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 11, 2026
Typically, Tesla would remedy recalls of this nature through an Over-the-Air software update, which has been a major focus of criticism by the company and its supporters because the NHTSA still refers to it as a “recall,” even though it requires no action by the vehicle owner. The fix is shipped over the internet and downloaded to the car.
-
However, there appears to be a potentially different solution for this problem. Tesla has not developed a remedy for this issue, so it could potentially be on the way. The big issue appears to be the fact that these recalled lamps are out of production, and this is an old body style for both vehicles. The headlights and front-end designs are completely different.
Tesla switched to another supplier when the affected headlight design was discontinued. It plans to begin notifying owners of their remedy options by September 15.
Tesla filed a petition protesting the recall to fix the vehicles’ headlight issue, but the NHTSA denied it. Now, Tesla will come up with a solution to fix it.
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
