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Morgan Stanley explains why Tesla’s first ‘Terafactory’ will be a perfect fit for Texas
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas believes that Tesla’s newest electric vehicle production facility will land in Texas. In an investor’s note on Monday, the analyst gave six key reasons for why he believes Texas will be Tesla’s newest home.
The upcoming facility is expected to be dedicated for the production of the Cybertruck, which will require a different manufacturing system compared to Tesla’s previous cars. The factory will be massive, and in the first quarter earnings call, Musk even mentioned that the Gigafactories will probably be referred to as “Terafactories” soon.
Following are Morgan Stanley’s reasons why Texas may very well be the site of the Cybertruck’s “Terafactory.”
Tesla’s need to join other manufacturers in states
Jonas recognizes that Tesla is the only Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) to have its main production facility in California. While Michigan has long been the home of the American automotive market, Tesla has called California home since its early days. Tesla is as much of a technology company as it is a carmaker, and technology lives in Silicon Valley.
However, Jonas sees unique disadvantages in having the main production facility located in CA. Concerning location and logistics, vehicle delivery times are extended for those who do not live in the western portion of the United States. Tesla owners who live on the East Coast are subjected to longer wait times for their vehicles due to transit and logistics delays. This is one of the main reasons a production facility that is centrally located in the country would be advantageous, Jonas says.
Texas has a hearty automotive manufacturing employment rate
Texas ranks fourth out of all fifty U.S. States in automotive manufacturing. This statistic comes from the US Department of Labor. Not only could Tesla increase its production rate as a company, but it could also provide a sizable economic boost by offering automotive production employment in a state that already has the enthusiasm for building vehicles.
Texas’ relaxed labor union representation fits Tesla’s bill
Jonas believes Tesla would prefer to operate in a state with a labor union representation that is not as heavy. Texas is a right-to-work state, where labor costs are affordable. Considering that the facility will be responsible for producing Tesla’s first pickup, the Cybertruck, along with the Model Y crossover, the workload will require a hefty workforce. Tesla will likely be looking to save where it can in a state that won’t break the company’s budget, and in Texas, The cost of doing business is significantly less than California, Jonas said.
Texas is a hotspot for renewable energy
Jonas recognizes Tesla’s identification as an “integrated renewable energy generation, storage, and transportation company.” Tesla would likely prefer a state with an abundance of renewable solar energy that could sustainably drive its manufacturing operations. Texas is a state with a warm and sunny climate, making it perfect for solar energy. The Morgan Stanley analyst noted that the state’s predictable climate and weather outlook would be beneficial to Tesla.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX holds its operations in Boca Chica, Texas
SpaceX has held its operations in Boca Chica, Texas since 2012. While its main rocket facility is in Hawthorne, California, Boca Chica is where SpaceX chooses to launch some of its rockets. The site first launched a rocket on April 5, 2019. However, Jonas seems to believe that Musk’s comfortability with Texas and SpaceX could extend to Tesla. “Synergies in management time and, over time, possibly increased cooperation between Tesla and SpaceX make Texas an appealing option for the next U.S. Giga,” Jonas wrote.
Tesla’s presence in the heart of U.S. Oil and Gas is “symbolic”
Jonas and other Morgan Stanley investors said that U.S. lawmakers and the public might see a “symbolic and, in many ways, well-timed” investment by Tesla in Texas. The state has long been the heart of the United States’ oil and natural gas industry, and a sustainable energy company moving into Texas could be a hint toward the inevitable transition to clean energy.
While Tesla CEO Elon Musk has mentioned that the newest production facility is going to end up in the Central United States, there has been confirmation that Texas is indeed the definite the landing spot for the upcoming facility. However, Musk did use a Twitter poll to test the waters of Texas’ acceptance as the location of the newest factory, and the results were positive.
Both Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn mentioned that the new production facility could be the company’s largest plant yet, hinting that it might be called a “Terafactory” instead. There is no indication of when Tesla will announce the facility’s final location. Still, Texas certainly seems like a very good fit for the Cybertruck facility.
Tesla has officially launched public Robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas, without a Safety Monitor in the vehicle, marking the first time the company has removed anyone from the vehicle other than the rider.
The Safety Monitor has been present in Tesla Robotaxis in Austin since its launch last June, maintaining safety for passengers and other vehicles, and was placed in the passenger’s seat.
Tesla planned to remove the Safety Monitor at the end of 2025, but it was not quite ready to do so. Now, in January, riders are officially reporting that they are able to hail a ride from a Model Y Robotaxi without anyone in the vehicle:
I am in a robotaxi without safety monitor pic.twitter.com/fzHu385oIb
— TSLA99T (@Tsla99T) January 22, 2026
Tesla started testing this internally late last year and had several employees show that they were riding in the vehicle without anyone else there to intervene in case of an emergency.
Tesla has now expanded that program to the public, but it is currently unclear if that is the case across its entire fleet of vehicles in Austin at this point.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
The Robotaxi program also operates in the California Bay Area, where the fleet is much larger, but Safety Monitors are placed in the driver’s seat and utilize Full Self-Driving, so it is essentially the same as an Uber driver using a Tesla with FSD.
In Austin, the removal of Safety Monitors marks a substantial achievement for Tesla moving forward. Now that it has enough confidence to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis altogether, there are nearly unlimited options for the company in terms of expansion.
While it is hoping to launch the ride-hailing service in more cities across the U.S. this year, this is a much larger development than expansion, at least for now, as it is the first time it is performing driverless rides in Robotaxi anywhere in the world for the public to enjoy.
Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.
The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.
Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.
There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:
- You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
- Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
- When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
- Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
- What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
- Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
- Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
- Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
- Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
- Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.
Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.
Elon Musk shared an incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab’s potential efficiency, as the company has hinted in the past that it could be one of the most affordable vehicles to operate from a per-mile basis.
ARK Invest released a report recently that shed some light on the potential incremental cost per mile of various Robotaxis that will be available on the market in the coming years.
The Cybercab, which is detailed for the year 2030, has an exceptionally low cost of operation, which is something Tesla revealed when it unveiled the vehicle a year and a half ago at the “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles.
Musk said on numerous occasions that Tesla plans to hit the $0.20 cents per mile mark with the Cybercab, describing a “clear path” to achieving that figure and emphasizing it is the “full considered” cost, which would include energy, maintenance, cleaning, depreciation, and insurance.
Probably true
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 22, 2026
ARK’s report showed that the Cybercab would be roughly half the cost of the Waymo 6th Gen Robotaxi in 2030, as that would come in at around $0.40 per mile all in. Cybercab, at scale, would be at $0.20.
Credit: ARK Invest
This would be a dramatic decrease in the cost of operation for Tesla, and the savings would then be passed on to customers who choose to utilize the ride-sharing service for their own transportation needs.
The U.S. average cost of new vehicle ownership is about $0.77 per mile, according to AAA. Meanwhile, Uber and Lyft rideshares often cost between $1 and $4 per mile, while Waymo can cost between $0.60 and $1 or more per mile, according to some estimates.
Tesla’s engineering has been the true driver of these cost efficiencies, and its focus on creating a vehicle that is as cost-effective to operate as possible is truly going to pay off as the vehicle begins to scale. Tesla wants to get the Cybercab to about 5.5-6 miles per kWh, which has been discussed with prototypes.
Additionally, fewer parts due to the umboxed manufacturing process, a lower initial cost, and eliminating the need to pay humans for their labor would also contribute to a cheaper operational cost overall. While aspirational, all of the ingredients for this to be a real goal are there.
It may take some time as Tesla needs to hammer the manufacturing processes, and Musk has said there will be growing pains early. This week, he said regarding the early production efforts:
“…initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast.”
BREAKING: Tesla launches public Robotaxi rides in Austin with no Safety Monitor
Tesla Earnings Call: Top 5 questions investors are asking
