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Tesla’s models outside S3XY remain vastly underestimated

Credit: Julien Jodry/Twitter

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It’s the final day of 2022, and Tesla is still hard at work delivering as many vehicles as it can. The company has initiated a number of efforts to boost its numbers, from $7,500 discounts for new inventory units to free 10,000 miles of Supercharging for the Model S and Model X. Needless to say, Tesla is pushing hard to end the fourth quarter on a strong note. 

Amidst these efforts, Tesla VP of Investor Relations Martin Viecha has sent a message featuring Tesla’s latest company-compiled delivery consensus. As per the estimates, which were from 24 sell-side analysts, Tesla would likely deliver about 417,957 vehicles in Q4 2022, comprised of 19,211 Model S and Model X and 396,147 Model 3 and Model Y. 

The analysts also estimated that Tesla could deliver 1,325,161 vehicles in 2022, comprised of 68,726 Model S and Model X, 1,254,935 Model 3 and Model Y, and 11 “other” vehicles, which likely corresponds to the Semi, Tesla’s Class 8 all-electric truck whose first deliveries were held at the beginning of December. 

Credit: Troy Teslike/Twitter

While the figures provided by the analysts seem quite feasible for the fourth quarter, the figures estimated for Tesla’s models outside its current S3XY lineup in the coming years seem extremely conservative. Tesla is expected to release the Cybertruck next year while ramping the production of the Semi, and the company is also expected to launch a more affordable electric car in the future. Elon Musk has hinted at a dedicated, “futuristic” vehicle that’s specifically designed for Robotaxi services and a “highly configurable” Robovan that can carry a lot of people as well.

Despite this, the analysts recently polled by Tesla expect the company’s vehicles outside the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y to only see 534,946 deliveries in 2026, four years from now. This seems conservative especially if Tesla manages to start the production and deliveries of its affordable EV by then. Elon Musk, after all, has suggested previously that Tesla’s affordable car would exceed the Model 3 and Model Y’s output. Its platform would also likely cost about half of the Model 3 and Model Y. 

Considering the addition of Tesla’s affordable car, the Semi and Cybertruck’s ramp, and the potential launch of the Robotaxi and Robovan, there seems to be a good chance that Tesla would be able to deliver far more than 534,946 vehicles outside the S3XY line in 2026. This would likely be the case if Tesla would really be pursuing its goal of 20 million vehicles per year by the end of the decade. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk trolls budget airline after it refuses Starlink on its planes

“I really want to put a Ryan in charge of Ryan Air. It is your destiny,” Musk said.

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elon musk ryanair

Tesla CEO Elon Musk trolled budget airline Ryanair on his social media platform X this week following the company’s refusal to adopt Starlink internet on its planes.

Earlier this week, it was reported that Ryanair did not plan to install Starlink internet services on its planes due to its budgetary nature and short flight spans, which are commonly only an hour or so in total duration.

Initially, Musk said installing Starlink on the company’s planes would not impact cost or aerodynamics, but Ryanair responded on its X account, which is comical in nature, by stating that a propaganda it would not fall for was “Wi-Fi on planes.”

Musk responded by asking, “How much would it cost to buy you?” Then followed up with the idea of buying the company and replacing the CEO with someone named Ryan:

Polymarket now states that there is an 8 percent chance that Musk will purchase Ryanair, which would cost Musk roughly $36 billion, based on recent financial data of the public company.

Although the banter has certainly crossed a line, it does not seem as if there is any true reason to believe Musk would purchase the airline. More than anything, it seems like an exercise of who will go further.

Starlink passes 9 million active customers just weeks after hitting 8 million

However, it is worth noting that if something is important enough, Musk will get involved. He bought Twitter a few years ago and then turned it into X, but that issue was much larger than simple banter with a company that does not want to utilize one of the CEO’s products.

In a poll posted yesterday by Musk, asking whether he should buy Ryanair and “restore Ryan as their rightful ruler.” 76.5 percent of respondents said he should, but others believe that the whole idea is just playful dialogue for now.

But it is not ideal to count Musk out, especially if things continue to move in the direction they have been.

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Tesla Robotaxi’s biggest rival sends latest statement with big expansion

The new expanded geofence now covers a broader region of Austin and its metropolitan areas, extended south to Manchaca and north beyond US-183.

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Tesla Robotaxi’s biggest rival sent its latest statement earlier this month by making a big expansion to its geofence, pushing the limits up by over 50 percent and nearing Tesla’s size.

Waymo announced earlier this month that it was expanding its geofence in Austin by slightly over 50 percent, now servicing an area of 140 square miles, over the previous 90 square miles that it has been operating in since July 2025.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk shades Waymo: ‘Never really had a chance’

The new expanded geofence now covers a broader region of Austin and its metropolitan areas, extended south to Manchaca and north beyond US-183.

These rides are fully driverless, which sets them apart from Tesla slightly. Tesla operates its Robotaxi program in Austin with a Safety Monitor in the passenger’s seat on local roads and in the driver’s seat for highway routes.

It has also tested fully driverless Robotaxi services internally in recent weeks, hoping to remove Safety Monitors in the near future, after hoping to do so by the end of 2025.

Although Waymo’s geofence has expanded considerably, it still falls short of Tesla’s by roughly 31 square miles, as the company’s expansion back in late 2025 put it up to roughly 171 square miles.

There are several differences between the two operations apart from the size of the geofence and the fact that Waymo is able to operate autonomously.

Waymo emphasizes mature, fully autonomous operations in a denser but smaller area, while Tesla focuses on more extensive coverage and fleet scaling potential, especially with the potential release of Cybercab and a recently reached milestone of 200 Robotaxis in its fleet across Austin and the Bay Area.

However, the two companies are striving to achieve the same goal, which is expanding the availability of driverless ride-sharing options across the United States, starting with large cities like Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area. Waymo also operates in other cities, like Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Orlando, Phoenix, and Atlanta, among others.

Tesla is working to expand to more cities as well, and is hoping to launch in Miami, Houston, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Dallas.

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Elon Musk

Tesla automotive will be forgotten, but not in a bad way: investor

It’s no secret that Tesla’s automotive division has been its shining star for some time. For years, analysts and investors have focused on the next big project or vehicle release, quarterly delivery frames, and progress in self-driving cars. These have been the big categories of focus, but that will all change soon.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Entrepreneur and Angel investor Jason Calacanis believes that Tesla will one day be only a shade of how it is recognized now, as its automotive side will essentially be forgotten, but not in a bad way.

It’s no secret that Tesla’s automotive division has been its shining star for some time. For years, analysts and investors have focused on the next big project or vehicle release, quarterly delivery frames, and progress in self-driving cars. These have been the big categories of focus, but that will all change soon.

I subscribed to Tesla Full Self-Driving after four free months: here’s why

Eventually, and even now, the focus has been on real-world AI and Robotics, both through the Full Self-Driving and autonomy projects that Tesla has been working on, as well as the Optimus program, which is what Calacanis believes will be the big disruptor of the company’s automotive division.

On the All-In podcast, Calcanis revealed he had visited Tesla’s Optimus lab earlier this month, where he was able to review the Optimus Gen 3 prototype and watch teams of engineers chip away at developing what CEO Elon Musk has said will be the big product that will drive the company even further into the next few decades.

Calacanis said:

“Nobody will remember that Tesla ever made a car. They will only remember the Optimus.”

He added that Musk “is going to make a billion of those.”

Musk has stated this point himself, too. He at one point said that he predicted that “Optimus will be the biggest product of all-time by far. Nothing will even be close. I think it’ll be 10 times bigger than the next biggest product ever made.”

He has also indicated that he believes 80 percent of Tesla’s value will be Optimus.

Optimus aims to totally revolutionize the way people live, and Musk has said that working will be optional due to its presence. Tesla’s hopes for Optimus truly show a crystal clear image of the future and what could be possible with humanoid robots and AI.

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