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Tesla’s models outside S3XY remain vastly underestimated

Credit: Julien Jodry/Twitter

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It’s the final day of 2022, and Tesla is still hard at work delivering as many vehicles as it can. The company has initiated a number of efforts to boost its numbers, from $7,500 discounts for new inventory units to free 10,000 miles of Supercharging for the Model S and Model X. Needless to say, Tesla is pushing hard to end the fourth quarter on a strong note. 

Amidst these efforts, Tesla VP of Investor Relations Martin Viecha has sent a message featuring Tesla’s latest company-compiled delivery consensus. As per the estimates, which were from 24 sell-side analysts, Tesla would likely deliver about 417,957 vehicles in Q4 2022, comprised of 19,211 Model S and Model X and 396,147 Model 3 and Model Y. 

The analysts also estimated that Tesla could deliver 1,325,161 vehicles in 2022, comprised of 68,726 Model S and Model X, 1,254,935 Model 3 and Model Y, and 11 “other” vehicles, which likely corresponds to the Semi, Tesla’s Class 8 all-electric truck whose first deliveries were held at the beginning of December. 

Credit: Troy Teslike/Twitter

While the figures provided by the analysts seem quite feasible for the fourth quarter, the figures estimated for Tesla’s models outside its current S3XY lineup in the coming years seem extremely conservative. Tesla is expected to release the Cybertruck next year while ramping the production of the Semi, and the company is also expected to launch a more affordable electric car in the future. Elon Musk has hinted at a dedicated, “futuristic” vehicle that’s specifically designed for Robotaxi services and a “highly configurable” Robovan that can carry a lot of people as well.

Despite this, the analysts recently polled by Tesla expect the company’s vehicles outside the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y to only see 534,946 deliveries in 2026, four years from now. This seems conservative especially if Tesla manages to start the production and deliveries of its affordable EV by then. Elon Musk, after all, has suggested previously that Tesla’s affordable car would exceed the Model 3 and Model Y’s output. Its platform would also likely cost about half of the Model 3 and Model Y. 

Considering the addition of Tesla’s affordable car, the Semi and Cybertruck’s ramp, and the potential launch of the Robotaxi and Robovan, there seems to be a good chance that Tesla would be able to deliver far more than 534,946 vehicles outside the S3XY line in 2026. This would likely be the case if Tesla would really be pursuing its goal of 20 million vehicles per year by the end of the decade. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla hints its already prepping for Cybercab fleet orders

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Tesla Cybercab fleet spotted at Gigafactory Texas [Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer)

Tesla has quietly opened a public interest form for companies that want to buy fleets of its purpose-built Cybercab robotaxis, marking the first official channel for commercial purchases of the two-seat autonomous vehicle. The form went live on September 3, the same day Tesla hosted an invite-only Cybercab launch event in Austin, Texas.

Tesla titled the page “Help Us Build Our Robotaxi Network.” Applicants provide name, email, phone number, company name, and deployment region. They then select one or more categories: Cybercab fleet vehicle purchasing, mobility hubs and infrastructure, event collaboration, or other. Tesla says a representative will follow up with those who express commercial interest.

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Until now, the company had no public ordering path for the vehicle, which was first shown as a concept at the October 2024 “We, Robot” event.

The Cybercab is designed from the ground up for unsupervised operation. It has no steering wheel and no pedals.

Regulatory filings list a 48-kilowatt-hour battery, a single 219-horsepower front motor, a curb weight of 3,113 pounds, and an EPA-adjusted range near 290 to 300 miles. Tesla has already registered dozens of the vehicles with Texas authorities and has been testing them on public streets around Austin.

Tesla Cybercab sightings broaden well outside of Austin with autonomy in focus

The company’s existing Robotaxi service, which currently uses modified Model Y vehicles in parts of Texas and Florida, is expected to add Cybercabs as production ramps up at Gigafactory Texas.

The form signals that Tesla is preparing to treat the Cybercab as more than an in-house fleet asset. Investors and operators have discussed buying groups of the vehicles and placing them on Tesla’s ride-hailing network, with Tesla taking a platform fee. High-profile figures have publicly stated plans to acquire fleets if Tesla allows third-party ownership.

The new page gives those parties a direct way to register interest rather than waiting for a conventional configurator.

Whether the form leads quickly to firm purchase agreements remains unclear. Regulatory approval for widespread unsupervised operation still varies by state, and Tesla has not published pricing or delivery timelines for fleet customers. The company has previously discussed a target price near $25,000 to $30,000 per vehicle.

For now, the form is an early signal that Tesla wants partners to help scale the network rather than operate every Cybercab itself.

Pairing the launch of the Cybercab fleet form with the Austin event is no coincidence. Tesla is inviting businesses to participate in the next phase of its Robotaxi plan at the moment the production vehicle first appears in public.

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Tesla Robotaxi riders will face the best dilemma when booking a ride

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla has updated its Robotaxi app so riders can pick which vehicle they want before they book. The latest in-app screens now show two options side by side: the two-seat Cybercab and the four-seat Model Y.

A screenshot circulating Thursday shows the change in practice. In Austin, a rider could choose a gold Cybercab for two people or a Model Y for four. Tesla’s updated description calls Cybercab “our first purpose-built autonomous vehicle,” designed for safety, accessibility, and comfort, and says the lineup is available only through the Robotaxi app.

The distinction is more than cosmetic, and it’s important to note that Robotaxi refers to the platform, while Cybercab refers to a vehicle.

Model Y Robotaxis have carried the service since it opened in Austin in mid-2025 and later expanded to Dallas, Houston, and parts of Florida. Those vehicles are converted production SUVs that still have steering wheels and pedals.

Cybercab is different. It has no driver controls, butterfly doors, a low seat height meant to work with wheelchairs, extra trunk space for assistive devices, and braille on the handles. Tesla has registered dozens of the two-seaters with Texas regulators in the days leading up to its September 3 Austin event.

Giving riders a choice lets Tesla match the vehicle to the trip. Most rides involve one or two people, which is where Cybercab is meant to be cheaper and more efficient to operate. Groups of three or four, or anyone who needs more space, can still request a Model Y.

The same app handles booking, payment, cabin settings, and, on Cybercab, features such as phone-based door opening and in-cabin voice controls.

Tesla Cybercab event gains steam ahead of massive launch

The update does not mean every city suddenly has both cars available. Cybercab support is listed for Austin first, and the purpose-built fleet is still small compared with the existing Model Y roster. Even so, the app change marks a shift from a single-vehicle pilot to a mixed fleet.

Riders can now choose between the compact, purpose-built robotaxi and the familiar SUV that launched the service.

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Tesla Cybercab sightings broaden well outside of Austin with autonomy in focus

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Credit: Tesla Robotaxi | X

Tesla Cybercab sightings are broadening far and wide, well outside of downtown Austin, Texas, with autonomy in focus as the company plans to launch the all-electric, two-seater this evening in the Lone Star State.

Tesla is set to launch Cybercab to a small group of people this evening in a dedicated event in Austin, Texas. Public details on the event are relatively slim.

However, Tesla’s focus on Cybercab falls well outside of the downtown Austin area and is expanding well across the United States as things continue to move quickly with the company’s autonomous efforts in 2026. Today, various images of Cybercab fleets in interesting locations have started to circulate.

The most notable is a fleet of at least 20 Cybercabs at Miami International Airport in Florida. Spotted last night, the fleet is expansive and is indicative of a looming release of Cybercabs once regulatory boxes are checked off.

Tesla has already been operating the Robotaxi platform in Miami for several months, but this Cybercab fleet at the airport could be joining the ride-hailing platform as approvals arrive:

Another fleet of Cybercabs was spotted at the Devon, PA showroom just outside of Philadelphia. We have seen several Cybercab units testing around the Philadelphia Metro Area, which is interesting considering Tesla does not have any active Robotaxi geofence in Pennsylvania.

Philadelphia would be an ideal location to test ride-hailing due to its dense tourist population, large, sprawling city layout, and to compete with other ride-hailing companies that operate in the city.

Expansive fleets of Cybercabs will be popping up in and around major cities throughout the rest of the year, if we were betting on it. Tesla has made it obvious that the Cybercab rollout will be aggressive and fast-paced, but within reason. Tesla is still prioritizing safety, so these testing phases will likely go on for some period of time before more members of the public are able to snag a Cybercab for a personal chariot.

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