Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels. 

The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.

Tesla’s valuation

In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.

The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla and its peers

BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.

The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.

Elon Musk has admitted that X’s creator payout system isn’t living up to expectations, and he has highlighted the current system’s biggest flaw. 

Amidst complaints about low and inconsistent payments, the platform’s owner acknowledged that X has been “underpaying and not allocating payment accurately enough.” Musk also stated that YouTube manages creator payments “much better.”

Musk acknowledges payout issues

Recent discussions about the social media platform’s payout issues began when X product head Nikita Bier stated that the company was developing new upgrades for “power users.” This prompted X user Peter Duan to raise ongoing concerns about being “consistently underpaid” compared to his peers. Bier responded candidly, suggesting that “creator payouts do more harm than good and we need to off-ramp to a different system.”

Musk then weighed in on the matter, contradicting Bier’s view. “No,” Musk wrote in his reply, “the issue is that we are underpaying and not allocating payment accurately enough. YouTube does a much better job.” The Tesla CEO’s comment immediately reignited debates about X’s monetization program, which some have criticized for its rather unpredictable nature.

X’s monetization challenges

Since X launched its ad revenue-sharing program in 2023, the system has promised to reward Premium subscribers who generate high engagement with verified accounts, as noted in a WION report. Creators, however, have argued that the company’s payout model has remained inconsistent, with revenue fluctuating even when view counts stay stable. Reports have noted that some users with millions of monthly impressions have received just a few hundred dollars.

By contrast, YouTube’s Partner Program, which takes a 45% cut of ad revenue, is known for more transparent and predictable payments. Musk’s admission that YouTube handles monetization more effectively could then hint at a potential shift towards a new monetization program for X, a platform that has become increasingly critical to social conversations over the years. 

Tesla may have just rolled out its boldest Full Self-Driving (FSD) upgrade yet, but the company’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, hinted at the recently released “Mad Max” mode’s actual killer feature.

As per the Tesla executive, FSD’s Mad Max mode is designed to provide drivers with optimum driving performance during what are commonly the most tedious driving conditions on real-world roads.

Where Mad Max mode truly shines

Tesla drivers and longtime FSD users responded positively to the rollout of Mad Max mode. The performance of the update was so notable that @WholeMarsBlog, a longtime FSD tester, described it as epic. The FSD tester’s comments were posted on X as videos of Mad Max mode’s real-world performance were being shared online.

In response to the Tesla owner and longtime FSD tester, Elluswamy noted that drivers would probably love Mad Max mode even more during daytime hours, when traffic is denser. “You’ll love it more during day time / denser traffic. Really showcases its decision making,” the Tesla executive wrote in his post.

The release notes of Tesla’s v14.1.2 FSD update indicate that Mad Max mode “comes with higher speeds and more frequent lane changes than Hurry.” Videos shared online showed that Mad Max mode, despite its assertive driving style, is still a very cautious and safe driver, similar to past FSD releases.

Made for real-world traffic and long commutes

Traffic congestion typically peaks during daytime hours, when drivers could at times spend hours navigating crowded intersections and fast-changing lanes. For many Tesla owners, having an FSD mode that can confidently manage that chaos could be a game-changer.

Simply put, the feature’s extra assertiveness could allow Mad Max mode to excel in the kind of traffic that tests even the most patient drivers. By improving decision-making in those conditions, the company may be positioning FSD as a true solution for the everyday stress of stop-and-go commutes, packed freeways, and unpredictable city driving.

The “Mad Max” name itself isn’t new. Elon Musk first teased it back in 2018 as a playful nod to aggressive freeway driving. Its reappearance in Tesla’s modern FSD system, however, hints at the notable maturation of Tesla’s autonomous driving efforts over the years.