News
Tesla Giga Berlin seems on track to start Model Y production later than Giga Texas
In a recent statement to German media, Brandenburg Economics Minister Jörg Steinbach stated that he expects the final approval for Tesla’s Gigafactory Berlin facility to be released sometime in the fourth quarter of 2021. If this comes to pass, Model Y production in the facility would be starting several months or so later than expected, which may not seem like too much of a delay. It may, however, result in Gigafactory Texas, a facility that started its buildout several months after the Germany-based factory, starting its Model Y production earlier than its Germany-based sibling.
As per a report from Berlin.de, Steinbach stated that the principle of quality over speed applies in the approval process of Gigafactory Berlin. “The principle of quality over speed clearly applies in the approval process. The top priority is that the decision of the State Office for the Environment is ultimately legally secure. And the factory can only be opened once a positive approval decision has been made,” the minister said.
If the State Environment Agency refuses to grant Gigafactory Berlin’s final approval, Tesla would have to dismantle all the structures it has built on the massive Grünheide complex, which includes a plant designed to produce the Tesla Model Y. Tesla would also have to replace the monoculture forest that it cut down in the area. Steinbach, however, noted that he considers a final veto from the Environmental Agency to be practically impossible. “This is not about the approval of a new nuclear power plant,” he said.
Inasmuch as Giga Berlin is supported by the Economics Minister, there is no denying that the project is meeting a substantial amount of pushback from local entities. Legal challenges from the Naturschutzbund (Nabu) and the Green League over Giga Berlin’s latest early approval aside, Tesla is also being investigated by the Brandenburg’s State Environment Agency for allegedly constructing a refrigerant tank (which may still be empty) without permission. The complaints about Giga Berlin’s alleged “illegal” tanks were filed by the two environmental groups, and are cruelty being handled by the Berlin-Brandenburg Higher Administrative Court (OVG).
Similar issues have so far not plagued Gigafactory Texas. Since its announcement on the Q2 2020 earnings call, Giga Texas’ construction has been relatively smooth. It’s been roughly 350 days since the massive Texas-based facility was announced, and so far, trial runs for parts of the plant’s Model Y production line are already underway. Elon Musk even noted on Twitter back in April that limited production of the Model Y would begin in Gigafactory Texas this year, with volume production hitting its pace in 2022.
What is quite interesting is that Gigafactory Texas’s footprint exceeds that of Gigafactory Berlin. Tesla adopted a different pattern for Giga Texas by building large sections of the full factory immediately, and so far, such a strategy seems to be working well. However, what truly differentiates the Texas plant from its Germany-based counterpart is the amount of pushback against the project as a whole. While Giga Berlin could barely move these days without encountering loud complaints and legal actions from the Naturschutzbund (Nabu) and the Green League — or local news agencies for that matter — Giga Texas has so far been met with support.
This is quite an unfortunate situation overall, as Gigafactory Berlin actually started out strong. Following its initial announcement in November 2019, Giga Berlin’s first months showed a lot of progress, so much so that it seemed like the facility may be built faster than Gigafactory Shanghai, whose Model 3 factory was built and launched in less than a year. But just like Giga Texas, Gigafactory Shanghai was also constructed without much drama. Since its groundbreaking in January 2019, Tesla’s China-based facility has grown steadily, and today, it is already poised to export the Made-in-China Model Y to European territories.
Tesla opened orders for the Model Y in Europe recently, and the all-electric crossovers would likely be coming from Giga Shanghai. One could almost assume that Tesla opted for this strategy due to the delays in Giga Berlin. The Grünheide facility, after all, was initially expected to start Model Y production sometime in the latter half of 2021. But if Brandenburg’s Economics Minister optimistically believes that Giga Berlin’s final approval would be granted in the fourth quarter, then having Giga Shanghai’s Made-in-China Model Ys pick up the slack may indeed be a good idea.
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Elon Musk
Tesla preps for a harsh potential reality if Musk comp vote doesn’t go to plan
A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.
Tesla could be forced to look for a new CEO in the coming months, as a crucial November 6 Shareholder Meeting vote will determine whether Elon Musk will stick around.
A major vote is coming up at the 2025 Tesla Shareholder Meeting, as investors will determine whether Musk should be given a new compensation plan that would award him up to $1 trillion and more than one-fourth of the total voting power within the company.
Tesla board chair reiterates widely unmentioned point of Musk comp plan
A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.
“My fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have at Tesla is if I go ahead and build this enormous robot army, can I just be ousted at some point in the future? That’s my biggest concern,” Musk said at last week’s Earnings Call. “That’s what it comes down to in a nutshell. I don’t feel comfortable wielding that robot army if I don’t have at least a strong influence.”
Tesla Board of Directors Head Robyn Denholm has been on somewhat of a PR tour over the past few days, answering questions about the compensation plan, which is among the biggest issues currently for the company.
Denholm told Bloomberg yesterday that Tesla investors need to be prepared for Musk to abandon ship if the package is not approved, which brings on a new question: Who would take over the CEO role?
That is a question Denholm also answered yesterday, bringing forth the conclusion that Tesla would not look for an outside hire if Musk were to leave the company. Instead, it would promote someone internally.
The way it was reported by Bloomberg and Reuters seems to make it seem as if Tesla is preparing for the worst, as it states the company “is looking at internal CEO candidates,” not preparing to do so.
Of the executives at Tesla who immediately come to mind as ideal candidates for a potential takeover should Musk leave, Tesla China President Tom Zhu and Head of AI Ashok Elluswamy both come to mind. Zhu has monumental executive experience already, as he was appointed to the role of Senior VP of Automotive back in December 2022.
He then returned to China in 2024.
It seems Tesla wants to align its future, with or without Musk, on the same path that it is currently on, and internal candidates might have a better idea of what that looks like and truly means.
News
Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) is nearing approval in a new country
As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.
It appears that Tesla FSD (Supervised) is heading to a new country soon, at least based on comments from Israel’s Transport and Road Safety Minister Miri Regev.
As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.
Israeli drivers are pushing for FSD rollout
While Tesla’s FSD is already operational in markets like the U.S., Canada, and Australia, Israeli owners have long been unable to use the feature due to regulatory barriers. Despite its premium price tag, however, numerous Tesla owners in Israel have noted that the technology’s safety benefits, at least when approved for real-world use in the country, justify its cost.
It was then no surprise that nearly 1,000 Tesla owners in Israel have already petitioned the government to greenlight FSD’s domestic release in Israel. In a post on X, Regev seemed to confirm that FSD is indeed coming to Israel. “I’ve received the many referrals from Tesla drivers in Israel! Tesla drivers? Soon you won’t need to hold the steering wheel,” she wrote in her post.
FSD’s regulatory support in Israel
Regev stated that her Ministry views promoting innovative technologies as essential to improving both road safety and smart mobility. A working group led by Moshe Ben-Zaken, Director General of the Ministry of Transportation has reportedly been tasked to finalize the approval process, coordinating with regulatory and safety agencies to ensure compliance with international standards.
In a comment to Geektime, Israel’s Ministry of Transportation and Road Safety noted that Regev is indeed supporting the release of FSD in the country. “Minister Regev sees great importance in promoting innovative technologies, and in particular in the entry of advanced driving systems (FSD) into the Israeli market, as part of the ministry’s policy to encourage innovation, safety, and smart transportation,” the Ministry stated.
Investor's Corner
Bank of America raises Tesla PT to $471, citing Robotaxi and Optimus potential
The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.
Bank of America has raised its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target by 38% to $471, up from $341 per share.
The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.
Robotaxi and Optimus momentum
Bank of America analyst Federico Merendi noted that the firm’s price target increase reflects Tesla’s growing potential in its Robotaxi and Optimus programs, among other factors. BofA’s updated valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model extending through 2040, which shows the Robotaxi platform accounting for 45% of total value. The model also shows Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus contributing 19%, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Energy segment adding 17% and 6% respectively.
“Overall, we find that TSLA’s core automotive business represents around 12% of the total value while robotaxi is 45%, FSD is 17%, Energy Generation & Storage is around 6% and Optimus is 19%,” the Bank of America analyst noted.
Still a Neutral rating
Despite recognizing long-term potential in AI-driven verticals, Merendi’s team maintained a Neutral rating, suggesting that much of the optimism is already priced into Tesla’s valuation.
“Our PO revision is driven by a lower cost of equity capital, better Robotaxi progress, and a higher valuation for Optimus to account for the potential entrance into international markets,” the analyst stated.
Interestingly enough, Tesla’s core automotive business, which contributes the lion’s share of the company’s operations today, represents just 12% of total value in BofA’s model.
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