Investor's Corner
GM and Fiat Chrysler admit that they’re buying regulatory credits from Tesla
Being an automaker that exclusively produces all-electric vehicles, Tesla has been gaining significant revenue over the years by selling federal greenhouse gas credits to fellow carmakers, which are needed by the car companies to offset the sales of internal combustion vehicles in the US market. Filings earlier this year have revealed that two of Tesla’s most notable credit buyers are none other than General Motors Co. (GM) and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA).
In filings to the state of Delaware, GM and FCA disclosed that they have an agreement to purchase greenhouse gas credits from Tesla. These filings, while light on details, are nevertheless notable, as they confirm that even established, veteran carmakers such as GM and Fiat Chrysler are looking to Tesla as a means to comply with the United States’ environmental regulations.
FCA’s purchase of credits from Tesla is quite unsurprising considering that the company has already been revealed to have entered an estimated $500 million open pool deal with the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker for the European region, which would allow Fiat Chrysler to count Tesla’s vehicles as part of its fleet to avoid incurring emissions penalties. What was surprising about the Delaware filings was that GM was purchasing credits from Tesla as well.
GM, after all, has been producing the Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid and Chevy Bolt EV for the US market for years. Despite the recent retirement of the Volt, it was largely assumed that GM’s electric and electrified vehicle lineup would leave the automaker in the clear when it comes to regulatory compliance. Nevertheless, Mike Taylor, founder and president of Houston-based environmental credit consultant and broker Emission Advisors, noted that GM’s decision to purchase credits from Tesla could be part of the company’s preparations for the future, especially if political tides shift in the 2020 election. “This might not be a bad hedge. If a Democrat gets elected in 2020, GM may need the credits and prices may go up,” Taylor said.
This assumption appears to have been highlighted by GM spokesman Pat Morrissey. In a statement to Bloomberg, the spokesman noted that the credits GM bought from Tesla are insurance against “future regulatory uncertainties.” FCA spokesman Eric Mayne, for his part, indicated that US standards are getting stricter at a pace that “far exceeds” the current level of demand for electric cars that are required for compliance. “Until demand catches up with regulatory requirements, and there is regulatory relief, we will use credits as appropriate,” Mayne stated.
Tesla has not issued a comment about GM and FCA’s credit purchases so far, though it should be noted that Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn pointed out during a call with prospective investors that sales of credits will be a more significant part of the electric car maker’s business in the following years. The previous quarters have proven lucrative for Tesla in this light, as the company reported $216 million in revenue from the sale of regulatory credits in the first quarter alone.
Automakers in the United States appear to be dependent on credits to meet the country’s regulations so far. For the 2017 model year, for example, all American automakers were found to have complied with US rules, though the EPA has noted that most large car companies used credits to meet the requirements.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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