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Tesla’s importance lies in global auto market, not just EVs following record year: Jefferies

A full lot of Tesla vehicles at Gigafactory Shanghai. (Credit: Jason Yang)

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Tesla’s importance as an automotive company is undoubtedly one of the most crucial in the storied history of car manufacturing. While Tesla’s influence undoubtedly shifted many legacy car companies to consider electrification as a potential outlet for growth and evolution, Jefferies analyst Phillippe Houchois says that now the electric automaker deserves to be in the conversation of “cars,” and not just electric ones.

Tesla shares (NASDAQ: TSLA) traded at $1,037.49 at the time of writing.

“Too many Tesla discussions still revolve around EVs when the topic should be how much global share Tesla will gain this year and through 2023,” Houchois wrote in a note to investors on Tuesday. “Barring a quick and full recovery to 2019 levels, EV growth is set to throw traditional OEMs’ cost base off-balance as EVs most replace lost ICE sales.”

Ford is a great example of the tail-end of Houchois’ statement. The Mustang Mach-E outsold the gas-powered Mustang for the first time in June 2021, according to MotorTrendEVs are undoubtedly becoming a piece of the automotive market globally, slowly but surely. While the market share is still relatively low for EVs, ICE vehicles are becoming less attractive due to gas savings as prices at the pump are reaching incredibly high levels. The national average on Tuesday was $3.31 a gallon, according to AAA. One year ago, prices averaged at $2.38 per gallon.

Tesla does not have a previous combustion engine powertrain to compare its EV sales to. However, the company’s vehicles are beginning to become popular in many regions, not just the United States. The Model 3 has captured various sales titles for vehicles, not just EVs. In Norway, it was the best-selling car in 2021, and in June, it was Britain’s best-selling car, outselling every gas-powered engine available in the market.

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Just naming a few examples does not seem to do Tesla justice. The company has converted a countless number of people to electric powertrains, and Tesla continues to expand its sales every year with the introduction of new models, new technology, and increased consumer perception regarding the advantages of driving an electric vehicle. The numbers do not lie, either: Tesla increased its deliveries in 2021 by 47% compared to 2020.

Tesla’s Q4 2021 and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call will take place next Wednesday. Musk decided last year to join the calls only when there is significant news to report, and it appears that he will be on the Earnings Call next week, where he could give an update of Tesla’s product map. This could shed further light on the Cybertruck project, which has been delayed to 2023, according to reports, and the potential start of production at Gigafactory Texas.

Tesla to provide product roadmap update in Q4 2021 earnings call

“CEO Musk promised an updated product plan, which should clarify widely rumored delays to Cybertruck,” Houchois wrote. “While optically poor, delaying Cyber and/or Semi would not materially affect our forecasts for volume (15k and 5k respectively in 2022E) or profitability given limited commonality with current model range.”

Houchois holds a $1,400 price target and a “Buy” rating on TSLA stock. He is ranked 183 out of 7,778 analysts on TipRanks and has a success rate of 65% with an average return of 32.8%.

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Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Deutsche Bank boosts Tesla (TSLA) stake by 20.8% to over $2.6 billion

The German banking giant now owns 10,076,461 Tesla shares.

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Credit: Tesla China

Deutsche Bank AG has significantly increased its position in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), boosting its stake by 20.8% in the first quarter. 

The German banking giant now owns 10,076,461 Tesla shares, an additional 1,733,531 shares compared to the previous quarter, valued at roughly $2.61 billion. 

A top holding

As noted in a report from MarketBeat, Tesla now represents about 1% of Deutsche Bank’s overall investment portfolio, making it the firm’s 13th-largest holding. This also means that Deutsche Bank now owns 0.31% of the electric vehicle maker, at least as of its most recent SEC filing.

Tesla shares are typically volatile, and they are still being traded actively, with an average trading volume of 104.7 million. As of writing, Tesla has a market capitalization of around $1.11 trillion, making it the biggest automaker in the world by far.

Institutional investors

Deutsche Bank is not the only firm that has been increasing its stake in TSLA. Charles Schwab Investment Management raised its Tesla holdings by 4.9% in Q1, resulting in the firm now controlling over 18.17 million shares worth $4.71 billion. Evolution Wealth Advisors also increased its Tesla stake by 85.7% to over 13,000 shares.

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Overall, institutional support for Tesla remains robust, with 66.2% of the company’s stock held by hedge funds and other large investors.

TSLA stock has been seeing some momentum as of late, amidst reports that the electric vehicle maker is making progress in several of its key initiatives. Tesla’s Robotaxi business in Austin and the Bay Area is expanding well, and Elon Musk recently announced that FSD V14 should be released soon to consumers. Tesla China is also expected to launch the Model Y L, a six-seat extended wheelbase version of its best-selling car, before the end of the third quarter.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk’s new $29B Tesla stock award gets strange synopsis from governance firm

Did CGI not realize that Tesla Shareholders supported Musk being paid not once, but twice?

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elon musk speaking
Credit: TED

Elon Musk was recently awarded around $29 billion in Tesla stock as the company’s Board of Directors is attempting to get its CEO paid after his original pay package was denied twice by the Delaware Chancery Court.

But a new and strange synopsis from the Corporate Governance Institute (CGI) says the award is potentially a strength move to “endorse the will of a powerful CEO.” The problem is, in the same sentence, the firm said the new award brings up a “question of whether the board exists to steward a company in the interests of all stakeholders.”

The problem with their new analysis of Musk’s pay package is that shareholders voted twice on Musk’s original pay package of $56 billion. They voted to give Musk that sum on two separate occasions.

Musk’s original $56 billion pay package was approved by shareholders twice; once in 2018 and once again last year. Last year’s vote was in response to Delaware Chancery Court Kathaleen McCormick’s decision to revoke the “unfathomable sum” from Musk.

Shareholders still showed support for Musk getting paid. Tesla said in its new award to the CEO that this is a way to give him compensation for the first time in seven years.

CGI said in its note (via TipRanks):

“When a board builds its strategy around a single individual, it creates a concentration risk, not just operationally, but culturally and ethically. If that individual becomes a source of volatility, the company becomes fragile by design.”

What’s strange with this type of narrative is the fact that Tesla’s valuation has skyrocketed with Musk at the helm. Go back to 2020, and the stock is up over 200 percent. Since Musk’s $56 billion pay package was introduced in 2018, shares are up well over 1,000 percent.

Tesla engineer explains why Elon Musk deserves new pay package

Musk’s 2018 pay package was also not awarded to him without performance-based incentives. He was required to reach certain growth goals, all of which were accomplished through the launch of new vehicles and the advancements of its driver-assistance suites, like Autopilot and Full Self-Driving.

It is tough to agree with CGI’s perception of Musk’s new pay plan, especially as it is much less than what shareholders voted on twice. Musk deserves to be paid for his contributions to Tesla.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.'”

The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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