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Tesla India plans take a hit as Minister shoots down talks of import tax reduction
Tesla’s entrance into India took a giant step backward as Government officials shot down the potential for import duty reductions on Monday. Attempting to enter the Indian automotive market with its sustainable vehicles, Tesla has petitioned for lower import taxes before committing to a Gigafactory in India. Still, the automaker and the government seem to be having trouble working on an agreement that would keep both parties interested.
After applying for and receiving two business licenses in India, Tesla seemed to be working toward an imminent entrance into the market. Rumors of a potential Gigafactory India have echoed through the community of well-known followers of Elon Musk, but the Tesla CEO shot down any potential of the automaker establishing production lines in the country in July.
Elon Musk: If Tesla can be successful with imports, India Gigafactory “likely”
“If Tesla is able to succeed with imported vehicles, then a factory in India is quite likely,” Musk Tweeted on July 23rd. Essentially, this statement eliminated any potential for a Tesla Gigafactory in India if the automaker could not first test demand for its products in the country. A smart move financially, Tesla spends hundreds of millions, even billions of dollars on production facilities. It would be a big gamble for the young and quickly-charging automaker to establish a full-blown residency in India without any sort of real-world data hinting toward robust demand. The government is willing to let import duties be lightened to 40%, as long as Tesla commits to building a factory in India at some point. This requirement throws a wrench into Tesla’s plans, as it is not willing to agree to these terms currently.
If Tesla is able to succeed with imported vehicles, then a factory in India is quite likely.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 23, 2021
“No such proposal is under consideration”: Minister
Now, Minister Krishan Pal Gurjar says that there is no talk of the government considering a reduction of import duties. On Monday, he told Parliament (via Bloomberg):
“No such proposal is under consideration in Ministry of Heavy Industries.”
Government ministries are currently run under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has emphasized tremendous support for local manufacturing efforts. The government, at this time, seems unwilling to consider reduced import duties or Tesla’s import plans at all because local manufacturing has taken priority.
India is not a country with a robust history of electrification, either. EVs accounted for less than 1% of annual car sales, despite being Asia’s third-largest country. Additionally, EVs are not in heavy demand in India due to higher production costs and minimal charging infrastructure, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., Chairman R.C. Bhargava said in an annual report released earlier today. “Unfortunately, the technology presently available leads to electric cars being produced at a cost much higher than the conventional cars. This, along with the lack of charging infrastructure, makes it very difficult to sell electric cars to people who can only afford small cars.”
Import Duties are Getting in the Way
Imports are a tough thing to get by for consumers in India. Because of the heavy import duties the country has applied on vehicles, many consumers are unwilling to spend what the tax adds on to the price of the car. For vehicles under $40,000, import duties are 60%. Any car that costs more than that is subject to a 100% tax, doubling the price of the car.
This has been perhaps Tesla’s only barrier for entering the market as a vehicle manufacturer without building a factory there. Tesla already could export vehicles from Giga Shanghai to India, but few are willing to pay the massive price tag that comes with the car due to the duties. It is unknown what Tesla will do moving forward, but the automaker and the Indian government seem to be playing a game of chicken, seeing who will make the give up potential requests to move toward a deal.
What do you think? Let us know in the comments below, or be sure to email me at joey@teslarati.com or on Twitter @KlenderJoey.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
