Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 production hits 5k/week, 7k including Model S & Model X
Tesla has managed to scale Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week. As noted by Elon Musk in an email to employees, Tesla did not only produce 5,000 Model 3 in seven days; it was also able to maintain the pace of 2,000 vehicles per week for the Model S and Model X.
The signs were already there in the days leading up to the end of the second quarter. This weekend alone, a series of images from workers at Fremont were uploaded on social media, suggesting that the company had hit its all-elusive production goal for the compact electric car. Among the most prominent was a “Model 3 5k Club” banner with signatures of workers from the Fremont factory. Casual snapshots from the facility’s grounds and assembly line, as well as a vehicle labeled “5000th” on its windshield, also suggested that the company had produced its 5,000th Model 3 for the week.
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- [Credit: Tesla Daily/Twitter]
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- [Credit: Tesla Daily/Twitter]
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- [Credit: Tesla Daily/Twitter]
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- [Credit: The Tesla Life/Twitter]
While the images coming out from Fremont incited speculations, they were eventually confirmed by a leaked email from Elon Musk himself. A partial copy of Musk’s email was provided to Teslarati by an anonymous insider.
“We did it!! What an incredible job by an amazing team. Couldn’t be more proud to work with you. It’s an honor. The level of dedication and creativity was mind-blowing. We either found a way or, by will and inventiveness, created entirely new solutions that were thought impossible.
“Intense in tents. Transporting entire production lines across the world in massive cargo planes. Whatever. It worked. Not only did we factory gate over 5,000 Model 3’s, but we also achieved the S & X production target for a combined 7,000 vehicle week!”
The 5,000/week target for the Model 3 has proven to be elusive for the electric car and energy company. During the vehicle’s unveiling last year, Elon Musk estimated that Tesla could attain the milestone by the end of 2017. When the company failed to hit this goal, Tesla opted to move the deadline to the second quarter of 2018, placing a target of 2,500 Model 3 per week at the end of Q1 2018.
The first Model 3 Performance Dual Motor rolls off the assembly line. [Credit: Elon Musk/Twitter]
Tesla did not meet this goal, though it did manage to manufacture more than 2,000 vehicles during the final week of March. During the 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting, however, Elon Musk announced that Tesla was on track to hitting its 5,000/week target by the end of Q2 2018. Musk’s reassurance ultimately helped push Tesla stock towards a meteoric rise, at one point even coming close to its all-time high.
Tesla’s Model 3 production milestone did not come easy for the Elon Musk-led company. During the second quarter, the company had to shut down the vehicle’s manufacturing twice to make way for upgrades on the production line. New robots and other machinery were also flown in from Europe to Gigafactory 1 in order to help address bottlenecks in the production of the vehicles’ battery packs.
In an unprecedented move this June, Tesla also erected a massive sprung structure on the grounds of the Fremont factory to house another assembly line for the Model 3. The move, deemed “insanity” by critics, ultimately allowed the company to augment its capability to manufacture the compact electric car.
According to a Reuters report, Tesla is now targeting a pace equivalent to 6,000 Model 3 per week within the next month. As noted by Elon Musk in his email to employees, the recently attained milestone might have very well established Tesla as a formidable car maker.
“I think we just became a real car company,” Musk wrote.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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