Investor's Corner
Tesla charges towards record Q4 with 13.7k new Model 3 VIN registrations in 2 days
Tesla ended the third quarter on a strong note, but if the electric car maker’s activities this October so far are any indication, it appears that the company is looking to end Q4 in an even more remarkable fashion. Amidst reports that Tesla has produced the 100,000th Model 3, the Silicon Valley-based company also registered more than 13,000 new Model 3 VINs in just two days.
This weekend’s VIN registrations were notable, considering that as of October 8, Tesla had already registered around 17,800 Model 3 in Q4. This past weekend’s filings were remarkable in their own right, as it saw the registration of the biggest batch of Model 3 VINs yet – 9,426 vehicles, ~52% of which are estimated to be Dual Motor AWD. With these latest filings, Tesla had registered a total of 148,386 Model 3 VINs to date.
#Tesla registered 9,426 new #Model3 VINs. ~52% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 148386. https://t.co/3pDIYHWgim
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) October 14, 2018
Tesla’s rate of VIN registrations appears to be picking up this month. October is only halfway through, but the company had already filed 30,478 new Model 3 VINs. If Tesla continues with this pace, October could easily be a record month for the Model 3’s registrations. While VIN registrations do not directly correspond to the number of vehicles immediately being produced by the carmaker, the rate of filings does give an idea about the pace of the Model 3 ramp. Elon Musk acknowledged this in the Q1 2018 earnings call, when he noted that “any information that we provide would be a week or two in advance of what will become public knowledge just due to vehicle registrations and shipments that are tracked very carefully.”
Earlier this week, Bloomberg‘s Tesla Model 3 production tracker, which has become more accurate with time, also showed that the overall production of the electric sedan has gone past the 100,000-mark. The tracker, which uses data from VIN registrations, social media reports from Model 3 owners, as well as direct reports submitted to the publication, currently estimates a total of 101,067 Model 3 built to date.
As further signs emerge of Tesla’s Model 3 ramp hitting its stride, it seems like Elon Musk’s long-term play for the electric car’s production is finally taking shape. When Musk envisioned the manufacturing of the Model 3, he saw an automated machine that builds the machine – one that would look nothing short of an “Alien Dreadnought.” The first 12 months following the start of the Model 3’s production proved challenging for Elon Musk and Tesla, though, as one bottleneck after another started emerging from both the Fremont factory and Gigafactory 1.
Eventually, it would be Tesla’s capacity to explore out-of-the-box strategies that ultimately made a difference in the Model 3 ramp. As Tesla adopted a more balanced workforce that utilized both humans and robots to construct the electric sedan, the company also looked into more unorthodox strategies to hit its targets. At the final month of Q2, for example, Tesla set up GA4, a Model 3 assembly line built inside a sprung structure. George Galliers, an analyst from Evercore ISI in London, visited the Fremont factory and noted that GA4, despite being built on the controversial “tent,” “looks to be permanent and in theory should be able to support much faster cycle times” following more optimizations.
In Q3, it was also revealed that Gigafactory 1 is receiving more upgrades in the form of new Grohmann machines, which would be installed by the end of the third quarter or the beginning of Q4. These new Grohmann machines, according to analysts from Worm Capital, will “help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper.” Panasonic, which previously announced that it is looking to finish its upgrades to Gigafactory 1’s battery cell production lines, has revealed that it is expediting the installation of new cell production lines as well.
It remains to be seen if the record batches of Model 3 VIN registrations are the result of improvements in the battery module production lines in Gigafactory 1. That said, considering Tesla’s tendency to continuously improve and innovate as it goes, it appears that the Model 3 ramp would be stable and strong enough to allow the company to charge ahead towards the end of 2018.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BoSgB3rBVVL/?taken-by=teslamotors
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
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