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Tesla charges towards record Q4 with 13.7k new Model 3 VIN registrations in 2 days

[Credit: Tesla]

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Tesla ended the third quarter on a strong note, but if the electric car maker’s activities this October so far are any indication, it appears that the company is looking to end Q4 in an even more remarkable fashion. Amidst reports that Tesla has produced the 100,000th Model 3, the Silicon Valley-based company also registered more than 13,000 new Model 3 VINs in just two days.

This weekend’s VIN registrations were notable, considering that as of October 8, Tesla had already registered around 17,800 Model 3 in Q4. This past weekend’s filings were remarkable in their own right, as it saw the registration of the biggest batch of Model 3 VINs yet – 9,426 vehicles, ~52% of which are estimated to be Dual Motor AWD. With these latest filings, Tesla had registered a total of 148,386 Model 3 VINs to date.

Tesla’s rate of VIN registrations appears to be picking up this month. October is only halfway through, but the company had already filed 30,478 new Model 3 VINs. If Tesla continues with this pace, October could easily be a record month for the Model 3’s registrations. While VIN registrations do not directly correspond to the number of vehicles immediately being produced by the carmaker, the rate of filings does give an idea about the pace of the Model 3 ramp. Elon Musk acknowledged this in the Q1 2018 earnings call, when he noted that “any information that we provide would be a week or two in advance of what will become public knowledge just due to vehicle registrations and shipments that are tracked very carefully.”

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Earlier this week, Bloomberg‘s Tesla Model 3 production tracker, which has become more accurate with time, also showed that the overall production of the electric sedan has gone past the 100,000-mark. The tracker, which uses data from VIN registrations, social media reports from Model 3 owners, as well as direct reports submitted to the publication, currently estimates a total of 101,067 Model 3 built to date.

As further signs emerge of Tesla’s Model 3 ramp hitting its stride, it seems like Elon Musk’s long-term play for the electric car’s production is finally taking shape. When Musk envisioned the manufacturing of the Model 3, he saw an automated machine that builds the machine – one that would look nothing short of an “Alien Dreadnought.” The first 12 months following the start of the Model 3’s production proved challenging for Elon Musk and Tesla, though, as one bottleneck after another started emerging from both the Fremont factory and Gigafactory 1.

Bloomberg’s Tesla Model 3 production tracker as of 10/15/2018. [Credit: Bloomberg]

Eventually, it would be Tesla’s capacity to explore out-of-the-box strategies that ultimately made a difference in the Model 3 ramp. As Tesla adopted a more balanced workforce that utilized both humans and robots to construct the electric sedan, the company also looked into more unorthodox strategies to hit its targets. At the final month of Q2, for example, Tesla set up GA4, a Model 3 assembly line built inside a sprung structure. George Galliers, an analyst from Evercore ISI in London, visited the Fremont factory and noted that GA4, despite being built on the controversial “tent,” “looks to be permanent and in theory should be able to support much faster cycle times” following more optimizations.

In Q3, it was also revealed that Gigafactory 1 is receiving more upgrades in the form of new Grohmann machines, which would be installed by the end of the third quarter or the beginning of Q4. These new Grohmann machines, according to analysts from Worm Capital, will “help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper.” Panasonic, which previously announced that it is looking to finish its upgrades to Gigafactory 1’s battery cell production lines, has revealed that it is expediting the installation of new cell production lines as well.

It remains to be seen if the record batches of Model 3 VIN registrations are the result of improvements in the battery module production lines in Gigafactory 1. That said, considering Tesla’s tendency to continuously improve and innovate as it goes, it appears that the Model 3 ramp would be stable and strong enough to allow the company to charge ahead towards the end of 2018.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025. 

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.

On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025

During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report. 

“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.

A bright spot in Tesla Energy

Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.

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“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated. 

Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.

JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Q3 deliveries expected to exceed 440k as Benchmark holds $475 target

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

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(Credit: Tesla)

Benchmark has reiterated its “Buy” rating and $475 price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the company prepares to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries in the coming days. 

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

Benchmark’s estimates

Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that he expects Tesla’s deliveries to hit around 442,000 vehicles this Q3, which is under the 448,000-unit consensus but still well above the 384,000 vehicles that the company reported in Q2 2025. According to the analyst, some optimistic estimates for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are as high as mid-460,000s.

“Tesla is expected to report 3Q25 global production and deliveries on Thursday. We model 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s. A solid sequential uptick off 2Q25’s ~384,000, a measured setup into year-end given a choppy incentive/pricing backdrop,” the analyst wrote.

Benchmark is not the only firm that holds an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Q3 results. Deutsche Bank raised its own delivery forecast to 461,500, while Piper Sandler lifted its price target to $500 following a visit to China to assess market conditions. Cantor Fitzgerald also reiterated an “Overweight” rating and $355 price target for TSLA stock.

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Stock momentum meets competitive headwinds

Tesla’s anticipated Q3 results are boosted in part by the impending expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, which analysts believe has encouraged buyers to finalize vehicle purchases sooner, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla shares have surged nearly 30% in September, raising expectations for a strong delivery report. Benchmark warned, however, that some volatility may emerge in the coming quarter.

“With the stock up sharply into the print (roughly ~28-32% in September), its positioning raises the bar for an upside surprise to translate into further near-term strength; we also see risk of volatility if regional mix or ASPs underwhelm. We continue to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as certain EV incentives/credits tighten or roll off in select markets, potentially creating 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness,” the analyst wrote.

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