News
NTSB Prelim Report on fatal Tesla Model X crash: 8-seconds before impact
The National Transportation Safety Board has issued a preliminary report on the tragic Tesla Model X crash near Mountain View, CA in March. The NTSB’s preliminary report provided details about the circumstances leading up the accident, as well as observations about the all-electric SUV’s battery pack five days after the crash.
According to the NTSB, preliminary recorded data revealed that the Tesla Model X had its Autopilot engaged with Traffic-Aware Cruise Control set to 75 mph at the time of the accident. The vehicle collided into the crash attenuator, rotating it counterclockwise, removing the front part of the vehicle, and causing subsequent collisions with a 2010 Mazda 3 and a 2017 Audi A4. The NTSB noted that the vehicle’s performance data revealed the following.
The aftermath of the Tesla Model X’s fatal crash. [Credit: S. Engleman/NTSB]
- Autopilot was engaged on four separate occasions during the 32-minute trip. The driver-assist feature was engaged for the last 18 minutes 55 seconds before the collision.
- During the 18 minute, 55-second period, the Model X provided two visual and one auditory alert advising the driver to place his hands on the car’s steering wheel. The alerts were triggered more than 15 minutes prior to the accident.
- For the last 6 seconds before the collision, the Model X’s driver did not have his hands on the steering wheel.
- At 8 seconds before the crash, the Model X was following a lead vehicle at about 65 mph. At 7 seconds, the Model X began moving left while still following a lead vehicle. At 4 seconds, the Tesla was no longer following a car. At 3 seconds before the accident, the Model X’s speed increased from 62 mph to 70.8 mph. The vehicle’s emergency braking and evasive steering did not engage.
- During the collision sequence, the Model X’s lithium-ion battery was breached, causing a fire. The flames were extinguished after the Mountain View Fire Department applied about 200 gallons of water and foam during a period of fewer than 10 minutes. In the afternoon, the battery emanated smoke and audible venting was heard, though no flames were observed.
- On March 28, 5 days after the accident, the Model X’s battery pack reignited. The San Mateo Fire Department extinguished the fire.
The NTSB noted in its preliminary report that it is continuing work with the California Highway Patrol and the California Department of Transportation in investigating the accident. The NTSB stated that all aspects of the crash remain under investigation, and that it intends to issue safety recommendations to prevent similar incidents from taking place.
Tesla and the NTSB initially worked together in investigating the fatal Model X accident. The electric car company and the safety board eventually parted ways, however, due to Tesla’s decision to release crash data before the NTSB’s investigation was complete. Among the information Tesla released was that the driver did not have his hands on the wheel during the final 6 seconds leading up to the accident — information that has been reiterated in the NTSB’s preliminary report.
According to a Tesla, it opted to withdraw from its party agreement with the NTSB since collaboration with the safety board prevents the public release of safety information until the investigation was finished. People familiar with the matter, however, noted that the NTSB was the one which opted to terminate its collaboration with Tesla, according to a Bloomberg report.
In an update after the accident, Tesla highlighted that the absence of a crash attenuator — a highway safety device designed to absorb the impact of a collision — was already damaged when the Model X collided with the concrete barrier. In a statement to ABC7 News, Wil Huang, the brother of the ill-fated Model X driver, noted that a working crash attenuator would have saved his brother’s life. Later statements from CalTrans revealed that safety device had been left unrepaired for 11 days before the tragic Model X accident.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
