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NTSB Prelim Report on fatal Tesla Model X crash: 8-seconds before impact
The National Transportation Safety Board has issued a preliminary report on the tragic Tesla Model X crash near Mountain View, CA in March. The NTSB’s preliminary report provided details about the circumstances leading up the accident, as well as observations about the all-electric SUV’s battery pack five days after the crash.
According to the NTSB, preliminary recorded data revealed that the Tesla Model X had its Autopilot engaged with Traffic-Aware Cruise Control set to 75 mph at the time of the accident. The vehicle collided into the crash attenuator, rotating it counterclockwise, removing the front part of the vehicle, and causing subsequent collisions with a 2010 Mazda 3 and a 2017 Audi A4. The NTSB noted that the vehicle’s performance data revealed the following.
The aftermath of the Tesla Model X’s fatal crash. [Credit: S. Engleman/NTSB]
- Autopilot was engaged on four separate occasions during the 32-minute trip. The driver-assist feature was engaged for the last 18 minutes 55 seconds before the collision.
- During the 18 minute, 55-second period, the Model X provided two visual and one auditory alert advising the driver to place his hands on the car’s steering wheel. The alerts were triggered more than 15 minutes prior to the accident.
- For the last 6 seconds before the collision, the Model X’s driver did not have his hands on the steering wheel.
- At 8 seconds before the crash, the Model X was following a lead vehicle at about 65 mph. At 7 seconds, the Model X began moving left while still following a lead vehicle. At 4 seconds, the Tesla was no longer following a car. At 3 seconds before the accident, the Model X’s speed increased from 62 mph to 70.8 mph. The vehicle’s emergency braking and evasive steering did not engage.
- During the collision sequence, the Model X’s lithium-ion battery was breached, causing a fire. The flames were extinguished after the Mountain View Fire Department applied about 200 gallons of water and foam during a period of fewer than 10 minutes. In the afternoon, the battery emanated smoke and audible venting was heard, though no flames were observed.
- On March 28, 5 days after the accident, the Model X’s battery pack reignited. The San Mateo Fire Department extinguished the fire.
The NTSB noted in its preliminary report that it is continuing work with the California Highway Patrol and the California Department of Transportation in investigating the accident. The NTSB stated that all aspects of the crash remain under investigation, and that it intends to issue safety recommendations to prevent similar incidents from taking place.
Tesla and the NTSB initially worked together in investigating the fatal Model X accident. The electric car company and the safety board eventually parted ways, however, due to Tesla’s decision to release crash data before the NTSB’s investigation was complete. Among the information Tesla released was that the driver did not have his hands on the wheel during the final 6 seconds leading up to the accident — information that has been reiterated in the NTSB’s preliminary report.
According to a Tesla, it opted to withdraw from its party agreement with the NTSB since collaboration with the safety board prevents the public release of safety information until the investigation was finished. People familiar with the matter, however, noted that the NTSB was the one which opted to terminate its collaboration with Tesla, according to a Bloomberg report.
In an update after the accident, Tesla highlighted that the absence of a crash attenuator — a highway safety device designed to absorb the impact of a collision — was already damaged when the Model X collided with the concrete barrier. In a statement to ABC7 News, Wil Huang, the brother of the ill-fated Model X driver, noted that a working crash attenuator would have saved his brother’s life. Later statements from CalTrans revealed that safety device had been left unrepaired for 11 days before the tragic Model X accident.
SpaceX is gearing up for the 13th Starship integrated flight test, which is currently scheduled for Thursday, July 16, with the launch window opening up at 6:30 PM E.T. from Starbase in South Texas.
This mission, the second with the V3 Starship and Super Heavy vehicles, builds directly on the foundation of Flight 12 while introducing ambitious new objectives, including the debut deployment of next-generation Starlink V3 satellites.
The rapid iteration between flights underscores SpaceX’s “fail fast, learn faster” philosophy, with engineers addressing specific anomalies from the previous test to push reusability and payload capabilities further.
Starship’s thirteenth flight test is preparing to launch as early as Thursday, July 16 → https://t.co/Rp7VwBzpWx pic.twitter.com/jdpFlQUEpF
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) July 11, 2026
Flight 12 occurred earlier in 2026 and encountered notable challenges that became catalysts for Flight 13’s improvements. Issues included booster course deviations during the flip maneuver after stage separation, reusability problems with Super Heavy’s Raptor engine relights for the boostback burn, and an engine-out event on the Starship upper stage during its propulsion phase.
These hiccups, while they did not prevent overall mission success, highlighted areas needing refinement for more consistent performance and higher safety margins in future operational flights.
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
In response, SpaceX implemented a comprehensive suite of both hardware and software upgrades.
For the booster, engineers developed a more robust stage separation flip sequence to maintain stable orientation and prevent off-course rotation. Hardware modifications have enhanced Raptor re-light reliability during the boostback burn, complemented by updated engine alarms and abort logic tailored for multi-engine operations. On the Starship side, propulsion system changes directly tackle the Flight 12 engine-out scenario, improving redundancy and operational resilience.
Another major focus of SpaceX for Flight 13 was the advancements in the heat shield. New tile designs and attachment mechanisms, including tests of aft flaps and skirts, aim to boost durability.
Load-sensing tiles will measure real-time stresses during atmospheric entry, while white-painted tiles simulate missing ones as imaging targets. Six of the 20 Starlink V3 satellites carried aboard will feature specialized cameras to scan and transmit heat shield imagery back to ground teams, providing critical data for future return-to-launch-site attempts.
The mission profile also includes a higher dynamic pressure ascent to stress-test the thermal protection system and increase payload potential, alongside a planned in-space Raptor engine relight demonstration.
The V3 Starlink satellites themselves mark a leap forward, equipped with laser links, deployable solar arrays, and improved antennas to expand network capacity and speeds.
The company wrote:
“For the first time, Starship will carry V3 Starlink satellites to space, which aim to greatly expand the network’s capacity and user speeds. As part of this initial test, Starship is planned to deploy 20 satellites which will extend solar arrays and antennas and will attempt to connect with ground stations in South Africa and the larger Starlink constellation via high-capacity lasers. Six of the satellites have been modified with a suite of cameras to scan Starship’s heat shield and transmit imagery down to operators to continue testing methods of analyzing Starship’s heat shield readiness for return to launch site on future missions. Several tiles on Starship have been painted white to simulate missing tiles and serve as imaging targets in the test.”
This dual-purpose flight tests both vehicle reliability and satellite tech in one integrated operation.
These iterative changes, catalyzed by Flight 12’s data, position Starship closer to rapid reusability goals essential for ambitious programs like Artemis lunar missions and global Starlink coverage.
As SpaceX continues its aggressive test cadence, Flight 13 exemplifies how targeted engineering responses to real-flight anomalies accelerate progress toward fully operational, high-cadence launches. Success here could mark another milestone in the Starship program for SpaceX.
Tesla received a price target upgrade just on the heels of what was a crazy successful quarter for its automotive business, as the company reported a delivery beat of over 15 percent for Q2.
Jefferies analysts are upping Tesla’s price target (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $400 from $375, while maintaining their “Hold” rating on shares, and the strong automotive deliveries from Q2 is a big reason. However, there are some other catalysts that Jefferies believes position Tesla for a strong position in the second half of the year.
Strong Deliveries
Tesla reported 480,000 deliveries for Q2, while Wall Street was between 395,000 and 405,000, as an overall consensus. It was an incredibly strong quarter from a delivery perspective, and Tesla sold well more than it produced during the three months.
Tesla crushes Wall Street expectations, beats delivery estimates by over 15 percent
While vehicle deliveries are not necessarily looked at in the light that they used to be, Tesla still maintains a lot of advantages for keeping deliveries strong. With the loss of the $7,500 EV Tax Credit last year, Tesla still maintains a strong demand case for its EVs.
Robotaxi Performance
Tesla has been operating Robotaxi for over a year now, as it launched in Austin in mid-2025. That program has expanded to Houston and Dallas, the San Francisco Bay Area, and, most recently, Miami, Florida, the suite’s first appearance in the Sunshine State.
While the Robotaxi suite is still in its early phases and Tesla is working through things like fleet size and wait times, the company has been able to undercut the pricing of its competitors and has a great safety record.
Merger Speculation with Tesla and SpaceX
This is perhaps the biggest topic that many are speaking about with Tesla and SpaceX, and it is the one thing that seems to be on the mind of every investor.
Jefferies warns that growing talk of a Tesla-SpaceX merger could cause Tesla stock to trade more like a SpaceX proxy, which may disconnect it from underlying automotive fundamentals. SpaceX has a lot going for it, especially its compute deals that have been widely publicized as of late.
Profitability in New Projects Could Take Some Time
Tesla has a few long-term ventures in the pipeline, most notably the Optimus project and Robotaxi, which is launched but will take several years to expand to a meaningful level that resonates with everyday people.
This is something that investors need to be careful of. Tesla’s projects could take some time to round out, so Jefferies advises that these may carry initial losses, rather than immediate profit. Seasoned Tesla investors have echoed something like this for a long time; they knew going in it would not be an open-and-shut strategy. It was going to take time.
These new projects are no different.
News
Tesla readies its autonomous Cybercab and Robotaxi cleaning service
A Texas permit just confirmed Tesla’s cleaning robot is coming to service its Cybercab and Robotaxi fleet.
A routine Texas building permit may have quietly confirmed that Tesla’s robot vacuum and autonomous cleaning bot for the Robotaxi and Cybercab is coming. A state filing with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation, as first discovered by Tesla enthusiast Spencer and posted to X, that project number TABS2025022006, lists the scope of work at Tesla’s Austin Robotaxi hub at 5900 E Ben White Blvd to include a “Cleaning Robot” alongside Supercharger cabinets and an Equipment Inspection System.
Tesla first showed the cleaning robot publicly on January 31, 2025, posting a short video on X with the caption “This robot sucks,” showing a large robotic arm inside a Cybercab cabin switching between attachments to vacuum debris, pick up trash, and wipe down surfaces.
The operational case for this hardware comes down to mathematics. A robotaxi running rides across Austin needs to cycle passengers continuously to generate revenue. Every minute a vehicle sits waiting for a human cleaning crew is a minute it is not earning. A robotic arm that can fully clean a Cybercab cabin between rides in under two minutes removes one of the key bottlenecks in fleet utilization that no autonomous vehicle company has yet solved at scale.
This robot sucks pic.twitter.com/VUmGfCM5B3
— Tesla (@Tesla) January 31, 2025
The 5900 E Ben White Blvd address sits roughly 12 miles southwest of Gigafactory Texas, where Tesla has been mass producing its Cybercab. The Ben White facility is expected to functions as Tesla’s Austin Robotaxi Hub, the physical base of operations where fleet vehicles return between rides to charge, get cleaned, and undergo inspection before being dispatched again – and all autonomously. One can imagine a Cybercab dropping off a passenger, routes itself back to Ben White, pulls into the cleaning station, charges on one of the Supercharger cabinets listed in the same permit, passes the equipment inspection system, and returns to service, all without a human making a single decision.
The sighting activity around both locations has accelerated in parallel with production. By mid-March 2026, Cybercabs were spotted regularly on public roads across Austin and Silicon Valley. Tesla’s Robotaxi operations in Texas has expanded to cover the entire Austin metro area and has spread to Dallas, while autonomous Cybercab employee shuttle runs at Gigafactory Texas are also set to begin soon. What it represents is the physical infrastructure behind a fleet that Tesla intends to run without anyone cleaning, driving, or dispatching it by hand.
SpaceX comes with a slew of changes for Starship Flight 13
Tesla gets price target upgrade on heels of crazy successful auto quarter
