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Tesla’s ‘Catfish Effect’ is propelling China’s local EV makers forward

Credit: Tesla China/Weibo

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When Tesla was preparing to enter the electric vehicle segment with a wholly-owned factory in China, former Industry Minister Miao Wei stated that the American EV maker’s presence would result in a “Catfish Effect” on the country’s electric car industry. Just over a year since Gigafactory Shanghai started operations, it seems like Miao’s statements are shaping up to be accurate. 

The Catfish Effect suggests that the arrival of a strong competitor will encourage “weaker” players to innovate and better themselves. Tesla, being the world leader in EVs, seems to have played the catfish in China’s EV segment last year. The Silicon Valley-based electric car maker sold 114,000 made-in-China Model 3 vehicles during the first 11 months of 2020, as per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). 

(Credit: Tesla China/Weibo)

This month, Tesla dropped another strong player in the Chinese EV market in the form of the Model Y, an all-electric crossover that is more affordable than rivals from companies like Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW. Tesla formally launched the Model Y in China with a starting price of RMB 339,900 ($52,550), 30% lower than its pre-launch price. This resulted in Tesla showrooms being swamped by prospective Model Y buyers. Competitors were appropriately unnerved, as per a report from The Nikkei Asian Review

China has stood as the world’s largest market for electric cars. This means that China’s premier EV makers such as BYD, SAIC, NIO, and Xpeng Motors are no joke. Local electric car makers can design and create compelling EVs, but last year, most–if not all–were eclipsed by the Model 3, whose technology was a cut above its domestic rivals. Its robust set of standard features like Autopilot also gave it an edge against competitors. 

Following the launch of the Model Y in China, Yu Liguo, the president of Arcfox, an EV unit of BAIC Motor, remarked that Tesla’s advantage in the country’s EV sector would likely not be matched by local manufacturers, at least not in the near future. This is especially true in the case of features like Autopilot, which place Tesla far ahead of competitors in the Chinese EV market and globally. Despite this, Yu was optimistic, noting that Chinese EV makers would catch up eventually. 

(Credit: Jay in Shanghai)

Pure EV companies from China are initiating programs that are aimed at expanding their business. NIO is ramping its battery-swapping network, and it recently launched a new used-car platform to make its vehicles more attainable to buyers. Xpeng Motors’ first European orders were also shipped from China to Norway. Legacy automakers such as SAIC, propelled by vehicles like the MG ZS EV, sold nearly 12,000 electric cars in Europe during the first nine months of 2020. 

Granted, Chinese-branded electric vehicles only account for about 10% of the global EV market, as per a report from UBS Securities. But thanks to the presence of Tesla, China’s electric vehicle makers may soon adopt more assertive strategies. With Gigafactory Shanghai ramping Model 3 and Model Y production, Tesla’s Catfish Effect may very well be underway in China. 

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com or reach out to me at maria@teslarati.com.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk’s next Uranium in Uranus merch is Boring Company’s weirdest tease yet

Elon Musk teased a glowing new Boring Company merch idea, complete with a Geiger counter.

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Concept rendering of Boring Company Uranium in Uranus merch tease via Grok
Concept rendering of Boring Company Uranium in Uranus merch tease via Grok

Elon Musk teased the next piece of Boring Company merchandise on X Saturday, and it is exactly as unserious as fans of the company’s product history have come to expect. “The next @boringcompany merch will put Uranium in Uranus,” Musk wrote in a thread posted early Saturday morning. He followed up by explaining that the item would glow in the dark, “because otherwise how could you find it,” and that a Geiger counter would be sold separately as “an optional strap-on.”

Musk closed the thread with a line that doubles as a mission statement for the tunneling company’s merchandise arm: “It’s not easy coming up with something that is both outrageously unsellable and yet extremely popular.”

The Boring Company has built a small but consistent side business out of novelty items that start as jokes and end up selling out. The company’s Not-a-Flamethrower raised roughly $10 million in a few days back in 2018, moving all 20,000 units it produced. Its Burnt Hair perfume, priced around $100 a bottle, sold out fast enough that scalpers were flipping units on eBay for ten times the retail price. Boring Bricks, made from tunneling spoil, followed the same playbook of teasing a product on X months before it became real.

Musk has not said what the actual item will be, only that it involves uranium and glows in the dark. Given the pattern, that vagueness is probably intentional. Past merch announcements have started as one-line jokes and taken weeks or months to turn into an actual product listing on the company’s site, and there is no guarantee this one follows through at all.

The timing lines up with a period of real momentum for the Boring Company outside of the joke merchandise. The company said last week it plans to double the number of operational stations on its Vegas Loop by the end of the year, a target tied to a hiring push for drivers and operations managers. Prufrock-5, one of the company’s tunnel boring machines, also just wrapped a test tunnel in Bastrop, Texas, and is expected to relaunch on its next assignment in November.

Whether the uranium joke turns into an actual product remains to be seen. Musk’s post did not include a price, a shipping date, or even a name for the item, which has historically meant a Boring Company website page goes up quietly, password protected, sometime before an announcement.

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News

NASA taps SpaceX for more astronaut missions as Boeing Starliner remains grounded

NASA just gave SpaceX a $946 million contract for three more astronaut missions through 2030.

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NASA has awarded SpaceX a $946 million contract modification covering three more astronaut missions to the International Space Station, according to an announcement the agency published Friday. The award adds Crew-15, Crew-16, and Crew-17 to SpaceX’s existing Commercial Crew Transportation Capability contract, bringing the agreement’s total value to $5.92 billion across 17 flights.

SpaceX confirmed the award on X, writing that it was excited for Falcon 9 and Dragon to launch NASA’s Crew-15, 16, and 17 missions to the Space Station from Florida. The new missions cover ground, launch, in orbit, and return operations, along with cargo transport and a lifeboat capability while docked at the station, and the period of performance runs through 2030.

The award follows a notice of intent NASA issued in May, when the agency first signaled it would purchase up to six additional post certification missions from SpaceX. Teslarati covered that filing at the time, noting NASA cited technical issues and schedule delays encountered by Boeing as a driving factor. Friday’s contract modification locks in three of those six missions, with the remaining three left open for NASA to award later, potentially to Boeing if Starliner clears certification.

Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner has still not flown an operational crew rotation mission for NASA. The spacecraft’s most recent crewed test flight in 2024 ended without the astronauts returning aboard Starliner, and the company has spent the time since working through thruster problems. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said this week that SpaceX is not retiring Crew Dragon today, for sure, while stopping short of committing to fly it past 2030.

Crew-12 is currently docked at the space station, and NASA has said Crew-13 is targeting a launch in the coming weeks. The newly awarded Crew-15 through Crew-17 missions extend SpaceX’s role as NASA’s primary way of getting astronauts to and from orbit well into the back half of the decade, regardless of what happens with Starliner or Starship in the meantime.

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Investor's Corner

New drone video shows Tesla’s Optimus Factory reaching a turning point

New drone footage shows Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory steel frame nearing completion at Giga Texas.

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Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory at Gigafactory Texas is closing in on a finished steel frame, according to drone footage posted Thursday afternoon by longtime site observer Joe Tegtmeyer. In the video, Tegtmeyer said structural steel assembly is now about five column grids away from reaching the building’s north perimeter beam, putting the primary skeleton in its final stretch roughly six months after Tesla broke ground on the North Campus site in late March.

Tegtmeyer’s footage shows concrete already going in on three upper floors while crews continue laying rebar and pouring grade beam footings at ground level. That kind of parallel work, steel rising at one end of the site while concrete sets at the other, is a scheduling approach Tesla used at the original Giga Texas building and appears to be repeating here to save time before the plant’s targeted 2027 production start.

Teslarati has tracked the building’s progress since Tesla confirmed construction was officially underway in May, when the first steel structure went up on what was then bare, reclaimed land. The facility is part of a more than 5.2 million square foot expansion of Giga Texas’s North Campus that Tesla has said will eventually run nearly the length of the existing vehicle factory, over 4,000 feet, while sitting somewhat narrower. Musk has pegged the long term output target at 10 million Optimus units a year once the line is running at full capacity, a volume that would dwarf the one million unit pilot line Tesla is standing up separately at its Fremont, California factory.

Tesla Giga Texas to feature massive Optimus V4 production line

The Texas facility sits alongside another major buildout on the same campus. Terafab, the joint Tesla and SpaceX chip fabrication plant that will eventually supply the silicon running Optimus units in the field. Housing robot assembly and chip production on the same grounds is a deliberate supply chain decision, cutting down on the shipping and lead time that would otherwise sit between the two.

Tesla has not given an updated timeline beyond its previously stated goal of bringing high volume Optimus production online at the site in the summer of 2027. Fremont’s smaller pilot line began mass producing the current Gen 3 robot in January, with that plant expected to build tens of thousands of units this year primarily to generate the real world data Tesla needs to refine the robot’s software before Giga Texas ramps up. Six months of visible construction progress, tracked almost entirely through Tegtmeyer’s recurring drone flights, gives the clearest outside look yet at how seriously Tesla is treating that 2027 deadline.

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