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Tesla’s ‘Catfish Effect’ is propelling China’s local EV makers forward
When Tesla was preparing to enter the electric vehicle segment with a wholly-owned factory in China, former Industry Minister Miao Wei stated that the American EV maker’s presence would result in a “Catfish Effect” on the country’s electric car industry. Just over a year since Gigafactory Shanghai started operations, it seems like Miao’s statements are shaping up to be accurate.
The Catfish Effect suggests that the arrival of a strong competitor will encourage “weaker” players to innovate and better themselves. Tesla, being the world leader in EVs, seems to have played the catfish in China’s EV segment last year. The Silicon Valley-based electric car maker sold 114,000 made-in-China Model 3 vehicles during the first 11 months of 2020, as per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
This month, Tesla dropped another strong player in the Chinese EV market in the form of the Model Y, an all-electric crossover that is more affordable than rivals from companies like Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW. Tesla formally launched the Model Y in China with a starting price of RMB 339,900 ($52,550), 30% lower than its pre-launch price. This resulted in Tesla showrooms being swamped by prospective Model Y buyers. Competitors were appropriately unnerved, as per a report from The Nikkei Asian Review.
China has stood as the world’s largest market for electric cars. This means that China’s premier EV makers such as BYD, SAIC, NIO, and Xpeng Motors are no joke. Local electric car makers can design and create compelling EVs, but last year, most–if not all–were eclipsed by the Model 3, whose technology was a cut above its domestic rivals. Its robust set of standard features like Autopilot also gave it an edge against competitors.
Following the launch of the Model Y in China, Yu Liguo, the president of Arcfox, an EV unit of BAIC Motor, remarked that Tesla’s advantage in the country’s EV sector would likely not be matched by local manufacturers, at least not in the near future. This is especially true in the case of features like Autopilot, which place Tesla far ahead of competitors in the Chinese EV market and globally. Despite this, Yu was optimistic, noting that Chinese EV makers would catch up eventually.
Pure EV companies from China are initiating programs that are aimed at expanding their business. NIO is ramping its battery-swapping network, and it recently launched a new used-car platform to make its vehicles more attainable to buyers. Xpeng Motors’ first European orders were also shipped from China to Norway. Legacy automakers such as SAIC, propelled by vehicles like the MG ZS EV, sold nearly 12,000 electric cars in Europe during the first nine months of 2020.
Granted, Chinese-branded electric vehicles only account for about 10% of the global EV market, as per a report from UBS Securities. But thanks to the presence of Tesla, China’s electric vehicle makers may soon adopt more assertive strategies. With Gigafactory Shanghai ramping Model 3 and Model Y production, Tesla’s Catfish Effect may very well be underway in China.
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Check out a MIC Model Y delivery event video below.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
