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Tesla Model Y sales impact on Model 3, addressed by Elon Musk

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated he does not expect the upcoming production and sale of the Model Y to cannibalize sales of the Model 3 during the company’s Q3 earnings call.

After being asked about the company’s concerns of Model 3 sales dropping amidst the upcoming release of the Model Y by New Street Research’s Pierre Ferragu, Musk responded that the company is not concerned about possible cannibalization of sales. “No, I don’t think we’re expecting to see cannibalization of Model 3, one is a sedan, one is an SUV,” Musk said. Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn added, “The best comparison we have for that is when we launched Model X, and we had Model S at the time. We didn’t see any cannibalization there.”

Musk added the sales of the Model S actually increased amidst the release of the Model X in 2015. According to Tesla’s 2015 quarter 3 and quarter 4 updates, upon initial deliveries of the Model X, Model S orders and deliveries increased by 49%. In the Q4 and 2015 full year update, Tesla stated “A total of 17,478 units were delivered globally during the fourth quarter of 2015, including 206 Model X vehicles. Model S sales in the United States totaled 16,689 units in 2014 and 25,202 in 2015.” Upon the release of the Model X, Model S sales did not halter or begin to slow down. The new vehicle actually encouraged sales of Tesla’s flagship sedan to increase. The Silicon Valley-based automaker is expecting with the Model 3 when the Model Y begins deliveries.

If the Model Y is supposed to discourage and eat away at the successful numbers of the Model 3, the Model X should have made the Model S trend in a negative fashion. However, the Model X and Model S differ in body type as one is a crossover and one is a sedan. The same scenario is true with the Model Y and Model 3. Tesla did try to keep the overall appearance of the Model Y similar to the Model 3, they are not the same vehicle. One is a sedan, the other is not.

The market for vehicles is big enough to support all of Tesla’s cars. The idea of Tesla’s new release slowing down the sales of a car recently named “Vehicle of the Year” by a popular automotive journal in the UK does not add up according to past data from the company’s quarterly earnings reports. Tesla announced and unveiled the Model Y in March 2019, and the company stated the Standard Range trim will begin production in early 2021. However, Long Range, Long Range AWD, and Performance variants will be available sooner according to the company’s projections, in late 2020.  The vehicle will be produced at Tesla’s main factory in Fremont, California, along with Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk teases Optimus job that’s straight out of Robocop

“If somebody’s committed a crime, we might be able to provide a more humane form of containment of future crime. You now get a free Optimus, and it’s just going to follow you around and stop you from doing crime.”

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Credit: @heydave7/X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased a potential job for the company’s Optimus robot last week that is straight out of the movie “Robocop.”

“Robocop” aimed to show a futuristic look at law enforcement in a Sci-fi thriller that was among the first iterations of how robots could be used for police work.

The 1987 film showcased an injured cop turning into an armed cyborg, and although Tesla’s Optimus won’t be a human-robot hybrid, Musk’s idea for the humanoid project is similar.

Musk said last week at the Annual Shareholder Meeting, where shareholders voted to approve his $1 trillion compensation plan, that Optimus could be the future of law enforcement, nearly revolutionizing the way criminals are prosecuted.

He hinted that Optimus could actually be used as a chaperone of sorts, arguing that it was a “more humane form of containment of future crime.” Musk said:

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“If somebody’s committed a crime, we might be able to provide a more humane form of containment of future crime. You now get a free Optimus, and it’s just going to follow you around and stop you from doing crime. Other than that, you get to do anything; it’s just going to stop you from committing crime. That’s really it. You don’t have to put people in prisons and stuff. It’s pretty wild to think of all the possibilities, but I think it’s clearly the future.”

Musk’s overall idea for Optimus is to change the way people are able to exist, from those law-abiding citizens to others who have their run-ins with the law. Instead, the Tesla CEO believes there could be a different way to handle everything, including punishment.

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It was not the only thing that Musk indicated could be changed significantly by the presence of humanoid robots, as he also said a universal basic income could be established with the help of products like Optimus.

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Elon Musk teases huge merger: ‘Trending towards convergence’

“My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence.”

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Elon Musk recently amplified the thoughts of Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who had insight into the “Muskonomy” of his potentially interconnected ventures, something that was proposed at the recent Tesla Shareholder Meeting with xAI.

Musk’s words indicate a potential strategic fusion that could serve as a blueprint for future innovation–but it is dependent on a conglomeration between the many entities the CEO serves.

As Tesla grapples with scaling Optimus and preparing for its imminent production and the development of the Full Self-Driving suite, xAI’s computational edge could provide leverage for the millions of miles of data the company accumulates, providing a more stable and accurate development strategy for the autonomous and AI efforts it has put its chips all in on.

After Tesla Shareholders voted to deny Tesla and xAI’s potential financial partnership through an investment, Jonas said it was an issue that would have to be revisited due to its importance.

xAI has the opportunity to provide an incredible strategic and financial bolstering to Tesla, especially with how important a role data plays in the development of the company’s biggest products.

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Jonas wrote in a note to investors:

“They’re gonna have to revisit this. We don’t think investors understand just how important xAI is to Tesla and the broader Muskonomy. Tesla’s relationship with xAI (financially and strategically) is deterministic to the long-term success of Tesla due in part to the natural synergies of data, software, hardware, and manufacturing in recursive loops. The values (and value systems) of both Tesla and xAI are endowed by the values of their shared creator. We believe this co-determination becomes more obvious in the next phases of physical AI/ autonomy for Tesla in the year ahead.”

Musk said, in response to Jonas’ note, that his companies are “surprisingly in some ways, trending toward convergence.”

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Mergers and shared ecosystems between companies are not new moves out of Musk’s playbook, as it has been done in the past, especially with Tesla acquiring other entities.

It did it with SolarCity in 2016 and with Maxwell Technologies in 2019. Investments between Musk companies have occurred before, too, as SpaceX dumped $2 billion into xAI last July.

He’s also said on several occasions that he could eventually bring everything together into some sort of single entity. In July 2024, he said:

“I’m not opposed to the idea in principle, but I’m not sure there is a pragmatic or legal way to merge them. There is also value in equity incentives of people at the companies being tied to that company’s accomplishments.”

This point is especially relevant now with Musk’s recently approved compensation package.

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He also said in June, during an interview with CNBC , that “It’s not out of the question” for xAI to merge with Tesla, but it would have to be approved by shareholders. Just a few days later, he said he would not support xAI merging with Tesla; however, he put it in investors’ hands.

It’s more than just a deal; it’s symbiotic. Musk being at the helm of various companies, all intertwined with one another, helps foster recursive innovation. Despite these advantages, there are still a handful of things to consider, especially from a regulatory perspective.

However, it is not competition; it’s convergence. In Musk’s universe, especially from a business sense, mergers are not endpoints, but instead launchpads for ambitions that aim to take each company from Earth to lands beyond our atmosphere.

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Tesla makes Elon Musk’s new compensation package official

This is an important thing to note, as much of the media coverage regarding Musk’s pay package seems to indicate that the company and the shareholders are simply giving the CEO the money. He has to come through on each of these tranches to unlock the $1 trillion.

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Credit: @JoeTegtmeyer/X

Tesla has made CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package official, as it filed a Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday.

The package officially gives Musk the opportunity to acquire over 423 million shares of Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), dependent on his ability to achieve twelve performance-based tranches that will bring growth to the company and its shareholders.

Tesla (TSLA) shareholders officially approve Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award

Musk’s new compensation package was approved by investors last Thursday at the company’s Annual Shareholder Meeting, as over 75 percent of voters supported the CEO’s new plan, which could be valued at over $1 trillion if he is able to come through on all twelve tranches.

The twelve tranches include growth goals related to vehicle deliveries, the Optimus humanoid robot project, and Tesla’s valuation. If Musk is able to achieve each tranche, he would help Tesla achieve an over $8 trillion market cap.

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The 12 tranches include:

  1. $2 trillion market cap + Deliver 20 million Tesla vehicles cumulatively
  2. $2.5 trillion market cap + Reach 10 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions
  3. $3 trillion market cap + Deliver 1 million Optimus humanoid robots
  4. $3.5 trillion market cap + Operate 1 million Robotaxis commercially
  5. $4 trillion market cap + Hit $50 billion in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, etc.)
  6. $4.5 trillion market cap + Hit $80 billion in adjusted EBITDA
  7. $5 trillion market cap + Hit $130 billion in adjusted EBITDA
  8. $5.5 trillion market cap + Hit $210 billion in adjusted EBITDA
  9. $6 trillion market cap + Hit $300 billion in adjusted EBITDA
  10. $6.5 trillion market cap + Hit $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA
  11. $7.5 trillion market cap + Hit $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA for four straight quarters in a row
  12. $8.5 trillion market cap + Hit $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA for four straight quarters in a row

Achieving the twelve levels of the new compensation package would also give Musk what he’s really after: a larger ownership share in Tesla, which would help him achieve more control, something he feels is necessary for the rollout of the Optimus robot “army.”

Musk does not earn a dime if he does not achieve any of the tranches above.

This is an important thing to note, as much of the media coverage regarding Musk’s pay package seems to indicate that the company and the shareholders are simply giving the CEO the money. He has to come through on each of these tranches to unlock the $1 trillion.

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