A recent episode of Sandy Munro’s Tesla Model Y teardown series has revealed that the electric car company utilized friction stir welding (FSW) for the crossover’s thermal management system. The welding technique is commonly used among aerospace companies, like SpaceX, as a way to maintain the strength of aluminum parts while securing a reliable bond between pieces.
Munro’s analysis of the Octovalve coolant system revealed Tesla’s techniques for the revised thermal management portion of the Model Y. Munro discovered the Octovalve on April 4 after digging into the Model Y’s internal build. The new coolant assembly seemed to be a revised version of the Model 3’s “Superbottle,” which served as the heart of the sedan’s thermal management system.
A car’s thermal management apparatus is responsible for controlling and maintaining proper temperatures in critical portions of the vehicle. In the case of the Model Y, the Octovalve is responsible for motor, battery, and cabin cooling, according to Munro. The Detroit auto veteran said that typically, these systems should not be cooling the cabin if they are controlling battery or motor temperature. The thermal management system in the Model Y seems to be controlling the cabin, the battery, the electronics, and the motor nonetheless.
The Octovalve seems to be a state-of-the-art system as it uses, “some clever little ball valves that open and close to make sure that everything’s getting heated or everything’s being cooled to where it needs to be,” Munro said.
With the assembly overlooking the temperature for these many parts of the vehicle, the system is subjected to drastic and sharp temperature changes. Over time, the difference between heat and cold can begin to weaken portions of the car part, especially if it was exposed to excessive temperatures during manufacturing. This is where some SpaceX-grade solutions come into play.
Tesla chose to utilize friction stir welding for its aluminum portions of the coolant assembly. “This is a cool way of putting two parts of aluminum together, some other materials as well, but aluminum is kind of the most suited for it. And in essence, what happens is you have a stylus that spins around very very quickly. It pokes through the two pieces of metal that you want to friction stir weld. Then, it goes around the outside edge, and what it does is it uses the plastic state or thixotropic state of the aluminum to bind it together,” Munro said.
Simply put, the process allows aluminum to reach a temperature that allows two pieces of metal to come together with a strong bond, but it never turns the metal into a soft, liquid-like state. “It’s like soft butter, butter that you could see is firm, but you could cut it with a knife.”
The advantage of using this process is that the heat from the welding process only applies to the outer edges of the metal. The additional material that is not bonded to anything does not see the heat and is not weakened by the welding process. Stir welding is also time effective as it can be completed in a short period, but it is a careful process that does not apply unneeded stress upon the rest of the assembly.
SpaceX uses friction stir welding for its rockets, as it increases strength by exposing only the bonded portions of two pieces of metal to each other. Friction stir welding was used by SpaceX back in 2008 when the company was combining barrel sections of the Falcon 9’s second stage. “The FSW joins metal without flames, sparking, inert gasses, or fumes, and produces a far superior weld in aluminum-lithium alloys as compared to traditional methods,” SpaceX said in a news update.
In the spirit of humor, Tesla and Elon Musk saw the Octovalve as a perfect opportunity to not only improve the performance of the vehicle temperature regulation system but also as an appropriate time to sprinkle in some additional humor in the form of an Easter Egg. The Model 3 donned a cape-wearing bottle-figured superhero for its “Superbottle” system, while the Model Y includes a snowflake-stamped Octopus as an Easter Egg.
Tesla has increased the effectiveness of its thermal management with the introduction of the Model Y’s Octovalve system. Elon Musk stated that it was some of the best engineering he had ever seen. The welding process could increase the longevity of the machine through its lack of exposure to excessive heat and stress during manufacturing.
Watch Munro’s video on the Model Y’s Octovalve welding below.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
