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Tesla prepares for ‘monstrous’ Q2 with Fremont factory running 10-20% above capacity: analyst

(Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is preparing for a “monstrous” second quarter as Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research released a new note this morning that indicates the Fremont factory in Northern California is running as much as 20 percent above capacity. On the heels of its biggest quarter in company history, Tesla is working to keep its streak of growth in vehicle deliveries intact. Recent shutdowns of the Shanghai production facility in China have hindered Tesla’s outlook for Q2, but the automaker is rebounding in the best way possible as demand increases.

The Fremont factory has an annual production run rate of 600,000 vehicles, Tesla stated in its most recent Shareholder Deck. It builds all four currently-offered Tesla models, and is the only factory to manufacture each vehicle in Tesla’s lineup. Breaking down to about 150,000 vehicles per quarter, Tesla could be operating with at least 30,000 additional cars coming out of Fremont in Q2, a hefty supplemental number to accommodate lost progress in Shanghai this quarter.

Tesla workers on Fremont’s assembly line. [Credit: Tesla]

In April, Tesla was forced to shut down the Gigafactory Shanghai facility due to a COVID-19 outbreak in the region. The Shanghai production plant was kept dormant for three weeks, all but axing Tesla’s hopes to continue a streak of growth in vehicle deliveries. Tesla’s 310,048 deliveries in Q1 2022 outshined any previous quarter, but assistance is definitely needed if the automaker plans to continue growth in production and deliveries.

Chowdhry said his routine checks on Tesla’s Fremont facility had been evidence of a massive production push in Northern California. This month, especially, has shown major progress. “May 2022 is off to an extremely strong Production, Shipments, and Deliveries,” Chowdhry said in a note. “Fremont Factory is running 10% to 20% above capacity” and comments that “2Q is shaping to be a Monstrous Quarter.”

Tesla is considering a significant expansion of its Fremont Factory

The note also stated that recent imagery of the Fremont factory seems to show more logistics vehicles arriving at Fremont, especially when comparing daily pickups of completed cars to the first quarter. Chowdhry estimates there are at least 20 percent more shipping trucks arriving at the facility compared to last quarter, which could indicate any number of things, including an increased need for vehicle haulers to push completed vehicles to their customers.

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While the assessment from Chowdhry is based on his perspective, there is certainly an indication that Tesla could be using Fremont to pick up the slack from Shanghai. The automaker has been known to push Fremont past capacity in past quarters, especially during the last few weeks of December, to put an exclamation point on a fiscal year. However, Tesla is also ramping manufacturing at its two new production facilities in Austin, Texas, and Brandenberg, Germany. These two factories will take less than a year to reach full production, according to CEO Elon Musk’s estimates on last quarter’s earnings call.

Chowdhry remains bullish on Tesla with a Street-high $2,300 price target and a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. Tesla shares have tumbled through the past week as Elon Musk sold some $8.5 billion in stock to fund an acquisition of social media platform Twitter.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla begins Robotaxi certification push in Arizona: report

Tesla seems serious about expanding its Robotaxi service to several states in the coming months.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has initiated discussions with Arizona transportation regulators to certify its driverless Robotaxi service in the state, as per a recent report from Bloomberg News. The move follows Tesla’s launch of its Robotaxi pilot program in Austin, Texas, as well as CEO Elon Musk’s recent comments about the service’s expansion in the Bay Area.

The Arizona Department of Transportation confirmed to Bloomberg that Tesla has reached out to begin the certification process for autonomous ride-sharing operations in the state. While details remain limited, the outreach suggests that Tesla is serious about expanding its driverless Robotaxi service to several territories in the coming months.

The Arizona development comes as Tesla prepares to expand its service area in Austin this weekend, as per CEO Elon Musk in a post on X. Musk also stated that Tesla is targeting the San Francisco Bay Area as its next major market, with a potential launch “in a month or two,” pending regulatory approvals.

Tesla first launched its autonomous ride-hailing program on June 22 in Austin with a small fleet of Model Y vehicles, accompanied by a Tesla employee in the passenger seat to monitor safety. While still classified as a test, Musk has said the program will expand to about 1,000 vehicles in the coming months. Tesla will later upgrade its Robotaxi fleet with the Cyercab, a two-seater that is designed without a steering wheel.

Sightings of Cybercab castings around the Giga Texas complex suggests that Tesla may be ramping the initial trial production of the self-driving two-seater. Tesla, for its part, has noted in the past that volume production of the Cybercab is expected to start sometime next year.

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In California, Tesla has already applied for a transportation charter-party carrier permit from the state’s Public Utilities Commission. The company is reportedly taking a phased approach to operating in California, with the Robotaxi service starting with pre-arranged rides for employees in vehicles with safety drivers.

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Tesla sets November 6 date for 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting

The automaker announced the date on Thursday in a Form 8-K.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has scheduled its 2025 annual shareholder meeting for November 6, addressing investor concerns that the company was nearing a legal deadline to hold the event. 

The automaker announced the date on Thursday in a Form 8-K submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company also listed a new proposal submission deadline of July 31 for items to be included in the proxy statement.

Tesla’s announcement followed calls from a group of 27 shareholders, including the leaders of large public pension funds, which urged Tesla’s board to formally set the meeting date, as noted in a report from The Wall Street Journal

The group noted that under Texas law, where Tesla is now incorporated, companies must hold annual meetings within 13 months of the last one if requested by shareholders. Tesla’s previous annual shareholder meeting was held on June 13, 2024, which placed the July 13 deadline in focus.

Tesla originally stated in its 2024 annual report that it would file its proxy statement by the end of April. However, an amended filing on April 30 indicated that the Board of Directors had not yet finalized a meeting date, at least at the time.

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The April filing also confirmed that Tesla’s board had formed a special committee to evaluate certain matters related to CEO Elon Musk’s compensation plan. Musk’s CEO performance award remains at the center of a lengthy legal dispute in Delaware, Tesla’s former state of incorporation.

Due to the aftermath of Musk’s legal dispute about his compensation plan in Delaware, he has not been paid for his work at Tesla for several years. Musk, for his part, has noted that he is more concerned about his voting stake in Tesla than his actual salary.

At last year’s annual meeting, TSLA shareholders voted to reapprove Elon Musk’s compensation plan and ratified Tesla’s decision to relocate its legal domicile from Delaware to Texas.

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Grok coming to Tesla vehicles next week “at the latest:” Elon Musk

Grok’s rollout to Tesla vehicles is expected to begin next week at the latest.

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Credit: Tesla China

Elon Musk announced on Thursday that Grok, the large language model developed by his startup xAI, will soon be available in Tesla vehicles. Grok’s rollout to Tesla vehicles is expected to begin next week at the latest, further deepening the ties between the two Elon Musk-led companies.

Tesla–xAI synergy

Musk confirmed the news on X shortly after livestreaming the release of Grok 4, xAI’s latest large language model. “Grok is coming to Tesla vehicles very soon. Next week at the latest,” Musk wrote in a post on social media platform X.

During the livestream, Musk and several members of the xAI team highlighted several upgrades to Grok 4’s voice capabilities and performance metrics, positioning the LLM as competitive with top-tier models from OpenAI and Google.

The in-vehicle integration of Grok marks a new chapter in Tesla’s AI development. While Tesla has long relied on in-house systems for autonomous driving and energy optimization, Grok’s integration would introduce conversational AI directly into its vehicles’ user experience. This integration could potentially improve customer interaction inside Tesla vehicles.

xAI and Tesla’s collaborative footprint

Grok’s upcoming rollout to Tesla vehicles adds to a growing business relationship between Tesla and xAI. Earlier this year, Tesla disclosed that it generated $198.3 million in revenue from commercial, consulting, and support agreements with xAI, as noted in a report from Bloomberg News. A large portion of that amount, however, came from the sale of Megapack energy storage systems to the artificial intelligence startup.

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In July 2023, Musk polled X users about whether Tesla should invest $5 billion in xAI. While no formal investment has been made so far, 68% of poll participants voted yes, and Musk has since stated that the idea would be discussed with Tesla’s board.

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