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Tesla gave Morgan Stanley a tour of its CA factory, and expansion sounds like a no-brainer
Morgan Stanley analysts Adam Jonas detailed a recent tour of Tesla’s Fremont Factory in Northern California, which included test drives of the Model 3, Y, and S Plaid. Based on Jonas’ synopsis of the plant, an expansion of the California plant may be just what the company needs, especially as CEO Elon Musk hinted that building onto the factory may be in the cards for Tesla soon, and it sounds like the most logical solution.
Jonas published a lengthy note to investors on Wednesday, indicating the five main takeaways from Morgan Stanley’s plant dealt with a busy work environment, strong margins, supply chain bottlenecks with raw materials, and Full Self-Driving’s take rate with customers.
However, one of the biggest takeaways from the note was Jonas’ number one point: The Tesla Fremont plant is ‘bustling’ to say the least. Jonas says the plant is operating at a rate of 50 percent above its intended capacity. When Toyota operated the plant prior to Tesla’s takeover, the factory produced 300,000 units per year. However, Tesla is building all four vehicle models at the factory currently. Builds from Fremont remain in North America, unless it is a Model S or Model X vehicle, as this is the only plant that produces Tesla’s flagship models. In Europe, the Model 3 and Model Y are currently produced at Gigafactory Shanghai. However, Gigafactory Berlin is set to begin operation in less than a week, which will provide European customers with Model Y builds initially.
Fremont is operating at a tremendously over-worked rate, which is complicating supply chain management and production at the facility, the note said. “The plant was never designed to produce 450k units (at its peak produced ~300k units before Tesla took it over from Toyota) which was immediately apparent at the tour, ” Jonas wrote. “Tesla does not shy away from the fact the plant is inefficiently designed with 4 assembly buildings, one of which is a tent that cars are assembled in,” in reference to GA 4.5, a sprung structure that Tesla filed to make permanent in 2021.
Additionally, Jonas said that, while the plant has an “exciting buzz,” Fremont is simply running out of space. This “was notable and provides little space for trucks to drop off supplies in locations that make sense inside the plant.”
Combining all of the points Jonas brings up in his note fully supports a recent idea from Musk, who indicated in March Tesla was considering an expansion of the Fremont factory, which is the only operational automotive assembly plant remaining in California. Ford had several in the 1900s, but each has closed.
Tesla is considering a significant expansion of its Fremont Factory
“Actually, we still operate our California factory, which is the largest auto plant in North America, at full capacity and are considering expanding it significantly,” Musk said on March 2. “It has built 2/3 of all electric vehicles in North America, twice as much as all other carmakers combined.”
While Tesla continues to expand manufacturing by opening new plants, its current factories have an opportunity for expansion. Gigafactory Shanghai, which has been operational since early 2020, has already received plans for its first batch of expanded production lines, according to filings Tesla submitted last year. Fremont is an integral part of Tesla’s operation, contributing nearly 500,000 vehicles annually to Tesla’s global operation. A significant expansion may be what the automaker needs to fulfill increased guidance, supplementing Gigafactory Texas as the plant continues to pump out production units ahead of initial deliveries. Tesla will need some time to get Gigafactory Texas up and running to full capacity, in which case Fremont will continue its exemplary output.
Perhaps Gigafactory Texas can repay the favor in a few years, if Tesla ultimately decides to expand Fremont by a significant margin, as Musk indicated.
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Tesla’s new Full Self-Driving pricing strategy will eliminate one recurring complaint that many owners have had in the past: FSD transfers.
In the past, if a Tesla owner purchased the Full Self-Driving suite outright, the company did not allow them to transfer the purchase to a new vehicle, essentially requiring them to buy it all over again, which could obviously get pretty pricey.
This was until Q3 2023, when Tesla allowed a one-time amnesty to transfer Full Self-Driving to a new vehicle, and then again last year.
Tesla is now allowing it to happen again ahead of the February 14th deadline.
The program has given people the opportunity to upgrade to new vehicles with newer Hardware and AI versions, especially those with Hardware 3 who wish to transfer to AI4, without feeling the drastic cost impact of having to buy the $8,000 suite outright on several occasions.
Now, that issue will never be presented again.
Last night, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced on X that the Full Self-Driving suite would only be available in a subscription platform, which is the other purchase option it currently offers for FSD use, priced at just $99 per month.
Tesla is shifting FSD to a subscription-only model, confirms Elon Musk
Having it available in a subscription-only platform boasts several advantages, including the potential for a tiered system that would potentially offer less expensive options, a pay-per-mile platform, and even coupling the program with other benefits, like Supercharging and vehicle protection programs.
While none of that is confirmed and is purely speculative, the one thing that does appear to be a major advantage is that this will completely eliminate any questions about transferring the Full Self-Driving suite to a new vehicle. This has been a particular point of contention for owners, and it is now completely eliminated, as everyone, apart from those who have purchased the suite on their current vehicle.
Now, everyone will pay month-to-month, and it could make things much easier for those who want to try the suite, justifying it from a financial perspective.
The important thing to note is that Tesla would benefit from a higher take rate, as more drivers using it would result in more data, which would help the company reach its recently-revealed 10 billion-mile threshold to reach an Unsupervised level. It does not cost Tesla anything to run FSD, only to develop it. If it could slice the price significantly, more people would buy it, and more data would be made available.
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Tesla Model 3 and Model Y dominates U.S. EV market in 2025
The figures were detailed in Kelley Blue Book’s Q4 2025 U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Report.
Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y continued to overwhelmingly dominate the United States’ electric vehicle market in 2025. New sales data showed that Tesla’s two mass market cars maintained a commanding segment share, with the Model 3 posting year-to-date growth and the Model Y remaining resilient despite factory shutdowns tied to its refresh.
The figures were detailed in Kelley Blue Book’s Q4 2025 U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Report.
Model 3 and Model Y are still dominant
According to the report, Tesla delivered an estimated 192,440 Model 3 sedans in the United States in 2025, representing a 1.3% year-to-date increase compared to 2024. The Model 3 alone accounted for 15.9% of all U.S. EV sales, making it one of the highest-volume electric vehicles in the country.
The Model Y was even more dominant. U.S. deliveries of the all-electric crossover reached 357,528 units in 2025, a 4.0% year-to-date decline from the prior year. It should be noted, however, that the drop came during a year that included production shutdowns at Tesla’s Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Texas as the company transitioned to the new Model Y. Even with those disruptions, the Model Y captured an overwhelming 39.5% share of the market, far surpassing any single competitor.
Combined, the Model 3 and Model Y represented more than half of all EVs sold in the United States during 2025, highlighting Tesla’s iron grip on the country’s mass-market EV segment.
Tesla’s challenges in 2025
Tesla’s sustained performance came amid a year of elevated public and political controversy surrounding Elon Musk, whose political activities in the first half of the year ended up fueling a narrative that the CEO’s actions are damaging the automaker’s consumer appeal. However, U.S. sales data suggest that demand for Tesla’s core vehicles has remained remarkably resilient.
Based on Kelley Blue Book’s Q4 2025 U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Report, Tesla’s most expensive offerings such as the Tesla Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X, all saw steep declines in 2025. This suggests that mainstream EV buyers might have had a price issue with Tesla’s more expensive offerings, not an Elon Musk issue.
Ultimately, despite broader EV market softness, with total U.S. EV sales slipping about 2% year-to-date, Tesla still accounted for 58.9% of all EV deliveries in 2025, according to the report. This means that out of every ten EVs sold in the United States in 2025, more than half of them were Teslas.
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Tesla Model 3 and Model Y earn Euro NCAP Best in Class safety awards
“The company’s best-selling Model Y proved the gold standard for small SUVs,” Euro NCAP noted.
Tesla won dual categories in the Euro NCAP Best in Class awards, with the Model 3 being named the safest Large Family Car and the Model Y being recognized as the safest Small SUV.
The feat was highlighted by Tesla Europe & Middle East in a post on its official account on social media platform X.
Model 3 and Model Y lead their respective segments
As per a press release from the Euro NCAP, the organization’s Best in Class designation is based on a weighted assessment of four key areas: Adult Occupant, Child Occupant, Vulnerable Road User, and Safety Assist. Only vehicles that achieved a 5-star Euro NCAP rating and were evaluated with standard safety equipment are eligible for the award.
Euro NCAP noted that the updated Tesla Model 3 performed particularly well in Child Occupant protection, while its Safety Assist score reflected Tesla’s ongoing improvements to driver-assistance systems. The Model Y similarly stood out in Child Occupant protection and Safety Assist, reinforcing Tesla’s dual-category win.
“The company’s best-selling Model Y proved the gold standard for small SUVs,” Euro NCAP noted.
Euro NCAP leadership shares insights
Euro NCAP Secretary General Dr. Michiel van Ratingen said the organization’s Best in Class awards are designed to help consumers identify the safest vehicles over the past year.
Van Ratingen noted that 2025 was Euro NCAP’s busiest year to date, with more vehicles tested than ever before, amid a growing variety of electric cars and increasingly sophisticated safety systems. While the Mercedes-Benz CLA ultimately earned the title of Best Performer of 2025, he emphasized that Tesla finished only fractionally behind in the overall rankings.
“It was a close-run competition,” van Ratingen said. “Tesla was only fractionally behind, and new entrants like firefly and Leapmotor show how global competition continues to grow, which can only be a good thing for consumers who value safety as much as style, practicality, driving performance, and running costs from their next car.”
Tesla Full Self-Driving pricing strategy eliminates one recurring complaint
Tesla Model 3 and Model Y dominates U.S. EV market in 2025
