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Tesla On Pace To Deliver 18,300+ Cars in Q4

Stock analyst Trip Chowdry claims the pace of activity at the Tesla factory is “three times” what it was a year ago. He predicts the company will deliver 18,300 cars on the fourth quarter that ends December 31.

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Tesla will report its Q4 delivery numbers next Monday, January 4, but Global Equities Research managing director Trip Chowdhry told International Business Daily on Wednesday the company is working feverishly to deliver as many cars as possible by the end of the year. He describes the pace of activity at the factory as “at least three times” what it was at this time last year. If Chowdry is correct, Tesla will meet its delivery guidance of between 50,000 and 52,000 cars for the year. Lots of things can affect the final number, including inclement weather that slows the delivery process.

“Factoring in two weeks of extreme slowness at the beginning of Q4 and extremely high delivery activity in the last 45 days,” Chowdhry is confident that “deliveries are ahead of the midpoint, we are saying, probably around 18,300 (for Q4), ahead of the midpoint of (Tesla’s) guidance of between 17,000 and 19,000 deliveries.”

It was widely assumed that Tesla would need to deliver lots of its newly introduced Model X crossover SUV in the fourth quarter in order to meet its goals, but in fact, Chowdhry reports that he has a high degree of confidence that at least 300 Model X have been delivered thus far. That means that sales and deliveries of the Model S sedan have been greater than anticipated.

Tesla Motors pop-up store in Santa Barbara, CA [Source: Tesla Motors]

Tesla Motors pop-up store in Santa Barbara, CA [Source: Tesla Motors]

People place too much emphasis on delivery numbers, Chowdry maintains. “It’s good to monitor [the numbers] because it tells the direction the company is going but should not be sole reason people are investing — based on quarterly numbers. Tesla is not GM. Tesla is not Ford.”

He has harsh words for the many competitors who are suddenly clamoring to get in on the premium electric car market, including Ford, Porsche, Audi and Volvo. “The questions to ask these Tesla Killers,” he says, ” are where is your Gigafactory? Where is your cloud computing platform? Where is your machine learning platform? Where is your Supercharger Network? Where is your store?” He dismisses most of the declared Tesla competitors as “clueless.”

Average selling price of the vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter is expected to remain stable, thanks in large part to the popularity of the dual motor option, which adds $5,000 to the base price of the cars. 70% of new Model S sedans are ordered with the dual motor system. Chowdry says 98% of all new Teslas are ordered with the Autopilot suite of sensors and software, a $2,500 option.

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The future is looking good for Tesla shareholders. Meeting delivery targets will squelch many naysayers who claimed it couldn’t be done. Model X deliveries are ramping up. The Model 3 will be introduced in the spring with pre-orders beginning at the same time. There will also be significant new business as the Gigafactory begins filling orders for residential and grid storage batteries. Add it all together and 2016 should be a breakout year for Tesla.

 

 

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Investor's Corner

Tesla could save $2.5B by replacing 10% of staff with Optimus: Morgan Stanley

Jonas assigned each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

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Credit: Tesla Optimus/X

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) near-term outlook may be clouded by political controversies and regulatory headwinds, but Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees a glimmer of opportunity for the electric vehicle maker. 

In a new note, the Morgan Stanley analyst estimated that Tesla could save $2.5 billion by replacing just 10% of its workforce with its Optimus robots, assigning each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

Morgan Stanley highlights Optimus’ savings potential

Jonas highlighted the potential savings on Tesla’s workforce of 125,665 employees in his note, suggesting that the utilization of Optimus robots could significantly reduce labor costs. The analyst’s note arrived shortly after Tesla reported Q2 2025 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles, which came close to Morgan Stanley’s estimate and slightly under the consensus of 385,086.

“Tesla has 125,665 employees worldwide (year-end 2024). On our calculations, a 10% substitution to humanoid at approximately ($200k NPV/humanoid) could be worth approximately $2.5bn,” Jonas wrote, as noted by Street Insider.

Jonas also issued some caution on Tesla Energy, whose battery storage deployments were flat year over year at 9.6 GWh. Morgan Stanley had expected Tesla Energy to post battery storage deployments of 14 GWh in the second quarter.

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Musk’s political ambitions

The backdrop to Jonas’ note included Elon Musk’s involvement in U.S. politics. The Tesla CEO recently floated the idea of launching a new political party, following a poll on X that showed support for the idea. Though a widely circulated FEC filing was labeled false by Musk, the CEO does seem intent on establishing a third political party in the United States. 

Jonas cautioned that Musk’s political efforts could divert attention and resources from Tesla’s core operations, adding near-term pressure on TSLA stock. “We believe investors should be prepared for further devotion of resources (financial, time/attention) in the direction of Mr. Musk’s political priorities which may add further near-term pressure to TSLA shares,” Jonas stated.

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Two Tesla bulls share differing insights on Elon Musk, the Board, and politics

Two noted Tesla bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

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Credit: Tesla

Two noted Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

While Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called on Tesla’s board to take concrete steps to ensure Musk remains focused on the EV maker, longtime Tesla supporter Cathie Wood of Ark Invest reaffirmed her confidence in the CEO and the company’s leadership.

Ives warns of distraction risk amid crucial growth phase

In a recent note, Ives stated that Tesla is at a critical point in its history, as the company is transitioning from an EV maker towards an entity that is more focused on autonomous driving and robotics. He then noted that the Board of Directors should “act now” and establish formal boundaries around Musk’s political activities, which could be a headwind on TSLA stock. 

Ives laid out a three-point plan that he believes could ensure that the electric vehicle maker is led with proper leadership until the end of the decade. First off, the analyst noted that a new “incentive-driven pay package for Musk as CEO that increases his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power” is necessary. He also stated that the Board should establish clear guidelines for how much time Musk must devote to Tesla operations in order to receive his compensation, and a dedicated oversight committee must be formed to monitor the CEO’s political activities.

Ives, however, highlighted that Tesla should move forward with Musk at its helm. “We urge the Board to act now and move the Tesla story forward with Musk as CEO,” he wrote, reiterating its Outperform rating on Tesla stock and $500 per share price target.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to Ives’ suggestions with a brief comment on X. “Shut up, Dan,” Musk wrote.

Cathie Wood reiterates trust in Musk and Tesla board

Meanwhile, Ark Investment Management founder Cathie Wood expressed little concern over Musk’s latest controversies. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Wood said, “We do trust the board and the board’s instincts here and we stay out of politics.” She also noted that Ark has navigated Musk-related headlines since it first invested in Tesla.

Wood also pointed to Musk’s recent move to oversee Tesla’s sales operations in the U.S. and Europe as evidence of his renewed focus in the electric vehicle maker. “When he puts his mind on something, he usually gets the job done,” she said. “So I think he’s much less distracted now than he was, let’s say, in the White House 24/7,” she said.

TSLA stock is down roughly 25% year-to-date but has gained about 19% over the past 12 months, as noted in a StocksTwits report.

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Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Tesla (TSLA) ‘Overweight’ rating amid Q2 2025 deliveries

Cantor Fitzgerald is holding firm on its bullish stance for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Cantor Fitzgerald is holding firm on its bullish stance for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), reiterating its “Overweight” rating and $355 price target amidst the company’s release of its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. 

Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2 2025, falling below last year’s Q2 figure of 443,956 units. Despite softer demand in some countries in Europe and ongoing controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk, the firm maintained its view that Tesla is a long-term growth story in the EV sector.

Tesla’s Q2 results

Among the 384,122 vehicles that Tesla delivered in the second quarter, 373,728 were Model 3 and Model Y. The remaining 10,394 units were attributed to the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. Production was largely flat year-over-year at 410,244 units.

In the energy division, Tesla deployed 9.6 GWh of energy storage in Q2, which was above last year’s 9.4 GWh. Overall, Tesla continues to hold a strong position with $95.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a 17.7% gross margin, as noted in a report from Investing.com.

Tesla’s stock is still volatile

Tesla’s market cap fell to $941 billion on Monday amid volatility that was likely caused in no small part by CEO Elon Musk’s political posts on X over the weekend. Musk has announced that he is forming the America Party to serve as a third option for voters in the United States, a decision that has earned the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump. 

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Despite Musk’s controversial nature, some analysts remain bullish on TSLA stock. Apart from Cantor Fitzgerald, Canaccord Genuity also reiterated its “Buy” rating on Tesla shares, with the firm highlighting the company’s positive Q2 vehicle deliveries, which exceeded its expectations by 24,000 units. Cannacord also noted that Tesla remains strong in several markets despite its year-over-year decline in deliveries.

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