Tesla is poised to benefit from rapidly dropping lithium prices, particularly in China, where the automaker produces nearly half of its vehicles.
No element has become more synonymous with electric vehicles than lithium. None of the modern batteries that make electric vehicles possible could exist without lithium. Hence, the price of EVs has become intertwined with the cost of lithium, which has slowly become cheaper thanks to massive investments worldwide. Now, according to Reuters, lithium prices have hit all-time lows in China, following similar movements in North America and Europe.
China’s lithium market reached just 260,000 yuan ($38,079) per ton today, less than half its price from November last year. Giving context to this fall, Reuters pointed out that analysts expected the price of lithium in China to fall to only 300,000 yuan by the end of the year.
Several factors have likely helped push Chinese lithium to its meager price. Foremost, the Chinese government recently ended incentives for electric vehicles, which has slightly slowed their adoption in recent weeks. Second, Chinese lithium faces more competition than ever before, particularly from the New World, where lithium extraction and refining capabilities have skyrocketed.
South America, which is by far the most lithium-dense continent on the planet, has seen its lithium extraction capabilities grow, particularly in Chile, where countless new projects are looking to capitalize on the massive amount of surface brine that can easily be converted into solid lithium. Meanwhile, in North and Central America, corporations and governments alike have doubled down on lithium investments, especially as the United States looks to decouple itself from Chinese supply.
In turn, this price movement in China and the Americas has had a similar effect in Europe, though that effect has been more muted.
But how could this affect Tesla pricing?
With Tesla’s most significant vehicle production cost still being the battery, there is no doubt the business will benefit dramatically from the falling price of one of its core elements. Furthermore, as Tesla still leads the auto industry in terms of profit margins, it has the most flexibility regarding its vehicle pricing.
If Tesla does institute another price cut thanks to this lithium price movement, it could very well upend the industry that the American automaker’s price cuts have already rattled at the beginning of the year. However, it remains unclear how much more space other automakers have to move regarding the price of their EVs, which is already unprofitable for many.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla Q2 2025 earnings: What Wall Street expects
The company has faced mounting pressure this year, with TSLA stock down 19% year-to-date.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to release its second-quarter 2025 financial results after markets close on Wednesday, July 23. The company has faced mounting pressure this year, with TSLA stock down about 19% year-to-date.
What Wall Street expects
As noted in a TipRanks report, Wall Street has remained cautious about the electric vehicle maker due to concerns about the EV segment in general, competition, reduced margins, federal EV regulations, and CEO Elon Musk’s political activities.
Overall, Wall Street expects Tesla to post earnings per share of $0.39, down 25% from a year ago. Tesla’s revenue is forecasted to fall 13% to $22.19 billion, and analysts also expect the electric vehicle maker to post lower margins this quarter.
Analyst expectations
Tesla delivered approximately 384,120 vehicles in Q2, a 13.5% drop year-over-year, as per Main Street Data. The company also produced over 410,000 vehicles and deployed 9.6 GWh of energy storage products during the quarter.
Ahead of the earnings call, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated a Buy rating and a $335 per share price target. He also adjusted his Q2 revenue forecast to $21 billion, down from his previous estimate of $24.1 billion. Despite short-term softness, Sheppard maintained his 2025 and 2026 projections, citing confidence in Tesla’s high-margin Robotaxi business model.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy kept a Hold rating with a $275 price target. He stated that the company faces “increasingly weaker fundamentals,” but he also suggested that Tesla’s Robotaxi story could drive optimism. Levy expects modest gross margin improvement quarter-over-quarter and flagged the full-year EPS estimate drop from $3.20 to $1.84. Delays in launching the affordable Tesla model remain a downside risk, Levy noted.
News
Tesla expands FSD Transfer offer to Europe and the Middle East
Tesla’s FSD transfer offer has long been used as a quarterly sales lever in North America.
Tesla has extended its Full Self-Driving (FSD) transfer promotion beyond North America, opening the door for owners in Europe and the Middle East to carry over their existing FSD systems to a new vehicle.
The move comes days after Elon Musk acknowledged a user’s request for FSD transfers in Europe on X, which the CEO called a “fair” ask. Tesla Europe later confirmed the offer via its official X account.
FSD transfers reaching new markets
FSD transfers have been used as a quarterly sales lever in North America, with its most recent availability in April 2025, as noted in a Not a Tesla App report. While this incentive had remained exclusive to the U.S. and Canada, Tesla’s latest announcement marks the first time the program has been rolled out internationally.
Interestingly enough, the offer hasn’t yet been extended to other FSD-enabled regions like China. This suggests that Tesla may be prioritizing markets where regulatory approval for FSD remains pending. European Tesla owners, after all, have been waiting literal years for FSD to be rolled out into their countries.
How the program works
The process for FSD transfers is straightforward. Existing Tesla owners with FSD must place a new vehicle order and complete delivery during the active promotion period. During checkout, customers are instructed not to add FSD to the new car. Instead, they must notify a Tesla advisor of their intent to transfer their existing vehicle’s FSD.
On delivery day, FSD will be deactivated on the old vehicle and activated on the new one. Customers are not required to trade in or sell their original Tesla that had FSD, though once the license is moved, the old vehicle reverts to just Basic Autopilot features.
News
Tesla Q2 2025 vehicle safety report proves FSD makes driving almost 10X safer
Tesla released its most recent vehicle safety data on its official website.
Tesla has released its most recent vehicle safety report, reiterating the idea that Autopilot and systems like Full Self Driving (FSD) are really the company’s best safety features.
Tesla released its most recent vehicle safety data on its official website.
Tesla’s Q2 2025 safety statistics
As per the electric vehicle maker’s Q2 2025 report, the company recorded one crash for every 6.69 million miles driven for vehicles that were using Autopilot technology. In comparison, data from the NHTSA and FHWA listed one automobile crash every 702,000 million miles.
“In the 2nd quarter, we recorded one crash for every 6.69 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology. For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology, we recorded one crash for every 963,000 miles driven. By comparison, the most recent data available from NHTSA and FHWA (from 2023) shows that in the United States there was an automobile crash approximately every 702,000 miles,” Tesla wrote in its report.
FSD as a safety feature
Elon Musk has always maintained that FSD is the company’s biggest safety feature. This is no exaggeration, as the system allows vehicles to operate vehicles without human intervention. Tesla is currently proving this in Austin, where it operates the pilot program for its dedicated self-driving Robotaxi service. Customers who have used Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin have noted that the vehicles operate in a manner that is akin to a confident and cautious driver.
An underrated advantage of Tesla’s FSD system is the fact that it does not get tired, nor does it ever operate the vehicle while intoxicated. It never gets distracted either. These advantages may seem minor, but they go a long way towards making Teslas the safest vehicles on the road today.
Tesla Q2 2025 earnings: What Wall Street expects
Tesla expands FSD Transfer offer to Europe and the Middle East
Tesla Q2 2025 vehicle safety report proves FSD makes driving almost 10X safer
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