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Tesla gets a $320 price target from Goldman Sachs

The bank cites weaker Q1 deliveries and demand challenges — but still believes in Tesla’s long-term software revenue growth thanks to FSD.

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Credit: @TeslaFrenzy/X

Goldman Sachs slightly cut its 12-month price target for Tesla from $345 to $320, citing weaker-than-expected vehicle deliveries in key regions and demand challenges.

“We lower our below consensus delivery estimates for Tesla, reflecting the quarter-to-date data for key regions (i.e., China, Europe, and the US), as well as what we believe are broader demand trends,” noted Goldman Sachs analysts.

The investment firm predicts Tesla will report Q1 2025 deliveries of 375,000 units, down from its previous forecast of 399,000 units. For perspective, the consensus for Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries is 426,000 vehicles.

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Goldman Sach’s prediction for Tesla in the first quarter is slightly above the company’s results in Q1 2024 when it delivered 386,810 units. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for Tesla is slightly above the company’s Q1 2023 results, when it delivered 422,875 vehicles.

The bank stated that Tesla’s transition to the new Model Y contributed to its weak Q1 delivery forecast. However, it expects Giga Shanghai’s production ramp for the Model Y Juniper to improve deliveries in China this month. Goldman Sachs also observed that underlying demand for Teslas is “somewhat weaker” than previously expected.

It notes that Tesla’s US deliveries in February are “tracking flattish year-over-year.” In Europe, Goldman Sachs states Tesla registrations show a “>40% year-over-year decline” in January and a mid-to-high 20% drop in February in key markets like the United Kingdom and Spain. Meanwhile, in China, CPCA data reveal that Tesla’s retail sales have seen a mid-single-digit decline year-over-year.

Despite its dreary predictions for Tesla in the short term, Goldman Sachs sees a bright future for the company. The bank still believes Tesla’s software revenue will grow long-term. It acknowledges Tesla’s progress with version 13 of Full Self-Driving (FSD).

However, it predicts that Tesla could struggle with monetizing FSD in China, where more competitors offer hand-free ADAS solutions. Goldman Sachs notes that Chinese competitors do not charge for incremental software packages.

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Goldman Sachs is maintaining a Neutral rating on Tesla stock, emphasizing that its 2025 earnings estimates are below consensus.

Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Tesla ramps up Sweden price war with cheaper Model Y offer

The incentive effectively acts as a manufacturer-funded EV bonus and makes the entry-level Model Y more affordable.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has introduced a new 40,000 SEK incentive in Sweden, lowering the price of its most affordable Model Y to a record low. The incentive effectively acts as a manufacturer-funded EV bonus and makes the entry-level Model Y more affordable.

As per a report from Swedish auto outlet Allt om Elbil, Tesla Sweden is offering a 40,000 SEK electric car bonus on the entry-level Tesla Model Y Rear-Wheel Drive variant. The incentive lowers the purchase price of the base all-electric crossover to 459,900–459,990 SEK, depending on listing.

The bonus applies to orders and deliveries completed by March 31, 2026. Tesla Sweden is also offering zero-interest financing as part of the campaign.

Last fall, Tesla launched a new base version of the Model Y starting at 499,990 SEK. The variant features a refreshed design and simplified equipment compared to the Premium and Performance variants. The new 40,000 SEK incentive now pushes the entry model well below the 460,000 SEK mark.

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So far this year, the Model Y remains the most registered electric vehicle in Sweden and the third most registered new car overall. However, most registrations have been for higher Premium-spec versions. The new incentive could then be Tesla’s way to push sales of its most affordable Model Y variant in the country. 

Tesla is also promoting private leasing options for the entry-level Model Y at 4,995 SEK per month. Swedish automotive observers have noted that leasing may remain the more cost-effective option compared to purchasing outright, even after the new discount.

The base Model Y Rear-Wheel Drive offers a WLTP range of 534 kilometers, a top speed of 201 km/h, and a 0–100 km/h time of 7.2 seconds. Tesla lists energy consumption at 13.1 kWh per 100 kilometers, making it the most efficient version of the vehicle in the lineup and potentially lowering overall ownership costs. 

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Tesla China hires Autopilot Test Engineer amid continued FSD rollout preparations

The role is based in Lingang, the district that houses Gigafactory Shanghai.

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Tesla is hiring an Autopilot Test Engineer in Shanghai, a move that signals continued groundwork for the validation of Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China. The role is based in Lingang, the district that houses Gigafactory Shanghai and has become a key testing zone for advanced autonomous features.

As observed by Tesla watchers, local authorities in Shanghai’s Nanhui New City within Lingang have previously authorized a fleet of Teslas to run advanced driving tests on public roads. This marked one of the first instances where foreign automakers were permitted to test autonomous driving systems under real traffic conditions in China. 

Tesla’s hiring efforts come amid ongoing groundwork for a full FSD rollout in China. Earlier reporting noted that Tesla China has been actively preparing the regulatory and infrastructure foundation needed for full FSD deployment, even though the company has not yet announced a firm launch date for the feature in the market.

As per recent comments from Tesla China Vice President Grace Tao, the electric vehicle maker has been busy setting up the necessary facilities to support FSD’s full rollout in the country. In a comment to local media, Tao stated that FSD should demonstrate a level of performance that could surpass human drivers once it is fully rolled out. 

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“We have set up a local training center in China specifically to handle this adaptation,” Tao said. “Once officially released, it will demonstrate a level of performance that is no less than, and may even surpass, that of local drivers.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been quite bullish about a potential FSD rollout in China. During the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, Musk emphasized that FSD had only received “partial approval” in China, though full authorization could potentially arrive around February or March 2026. This timeline was reiterated by the CEO during his appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

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Tesla Model Y outsells all EV rivals in Europe in 2025 despite headwinds

The result highlights the Model Y’s continued strength in the region.

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Credit: Tesla

The Tesla Model Y was Europe’s most popular electric car in 2025, leading all EV models by a wide margin despite a year marked by production transition, intensifying competition, and anti-Elon Musk sentiments. 

The result highlights the Model Y’s continued strength in the region even as Volkswagen overtook Tesla as the top-selling EV brand overall.

As per data compiled by JATO Dynamics and reported by Swedish outlet Allt om Elbil, the Tesla Model Y recorded 149,805 registrations across Europe in 2025. That figure placed it comfortably at No. 1 among all electric car models in the region.

The Model Y’s performance in Europe is particularly notable given that registrations declined 28% year-over-year. The dip coincided with Tesla’s Q1 2025 transition to the updated Model Y, a changeover that temporarily affected output and deliveries in several markets. Anti-Elon Musk sentiments also spread across several European countries amidst the CEO’s work with U.S. President Donald Trump.

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Even with these disruptions, the Model Y outsold its nearest rival by more than 50,000 units. Second place went to the newly launched Skoda Elroq with 93,870 registrations, followed by the Tesla Model 3 at 85,393 units. The Model 3 also recorded a 24% year-over-year decline. Renault’s new electric Renault 5 placed fourth with 85,101 registrations.

Other top performers included the Volkswagen ID.4, ID.3, and ID.7, along with the BMW iX1 and Kia EV3, many of which posted triple-digit growth from partial-year launches in 2024.

While the Model Y dominated individual model rankings, Volkswagen overtook Tesla as Europe’s top EV brand in 2025. Volkswagen delivered 274,278 electric cars in the region, a 56% increase compared to 2024. Much of that growth was driven by the Volkswagen ID.7. Tesla, by contrast, sold 236,357 electric vehicles in Europe, representing a 27% year-over-year decline.

JATO Dynamics noted that “Tesla’s small and aging model range faces fierce competition in Europe, both from traditional European automakers and a growing number of Chinese competitors.”

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Despite intensifying competition and brand-level shifts, however. the Model Y’s commanding lead demonstrates that Tesla’s bestselling crossover remains a dominant force in Europe’s fast-evolving EV landscape.

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