Tesla bulls from Ark Invest expect TSLA stock to be valued at $4,600 by 2026.
Ark previously estimated that TSLA stocks would reach $3,000 per share by 2025. The investment management firm laid out all its price target expectations, as seen in the chart below.
Ark still believes that Tesla’s self-driving robotaxi fleet, equipped with the company’s self-driving software, is the key to achieving $4,600 per share.
“Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 60% of expected value and more than half of expected EBITDA in 2026. Across our simulation set, we expect electric vehicles to constitute 57% of the company’s revenue in 2026, albeit at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue.”
For its bull case scenario, ARK expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to generate $486 billion in annual revenue by 2026. ARK predicts that Tesla’s robotaxi fleet would only generate $51 billion in annual revenue for its bear case. In 2021, Tesla generated nearly $54 billion in revenue, mostly through electric vehicle sales.
The firm estimates that the total addressable market for autonomous ride-hailing services is about $11-$12 trillion. In the Western markets, the total addressable ridership is $990 billion.
ARK seems more confident that Tesla will achieve full self-driving.
“Whereas our previous downside case assumed that Tesla would never launch autonomous ride-hailing, our updated downside case assumes launch in 2026, four years later than Elon Musk expects,” it noted.
Elon Musk has also grown more confident in Tesla achieving full self-driving. In a recent TED interview, Musk seemed sure that Tesla had discovered a scalable solution to developing autonomous vehicles.
During the Cyber Rodeo grand opening event, Musk also hinted that Tesla plans to develop a completely different vehicle for its robotaxi fleet. He also suggested that Tesla would try to get most of its ongoing projects, like the Semi and Cybertruck, moving forward by next year.