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Tesla Semi production could kick battery cell production into overdrive

Elon Musk: Tesla Semi deliveries to Pepsi Dec 1

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The Tesla Semi could face battery production limits as cell production fights already high demand.

Tesla has long faced an overarching problem, too much demand, and too little supply. No other car maker on the planet can say that there are multi-month (and sometimes year) long waiting lists for every vehicle they manufacture. But as Tesla hopes to introduce the Tesla Semi by the end of the year, they may only exacerbate their already supply-constrained production numbers.

Breaking it down by the numbers gives a better picture of the battery cell issue the Tesla Semi could face. Tesla’s 4680 cells each have an energy capacity of 98Wh; for context, 828 cells are needed to make a single Tesla Model Y with an 81.1kWh battery. With this capacity-per-cell spec and the specs that have been published by Tesla about the Tesla Semi, we can estimate the capacity of the truck’s (likely enormous) battery.

The Tesla website states that the Tesla Semi, while fully laden, will have a max range of 500 miles and use under 2kWh per mile. Assuming a worst-case scenario where the truck uses exactly 2kWh per mile for 500 miles, the Tesla Semi would have a battery capacity of 1000kWh. And even if the Tesla Semi could achieve 1kWh per mile, the battery would be 500kWh.

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At 1000kWh, or 1 million Wh, this would require 10,204 Tesla 4680 cells or 5102 cells for the 500kWh battery. This enormous amount of cells could be used on 12 Tesla Model Y batteries.

Perhaps more interestingly, from the battery capacity, you can also infer the charging speed that Tesla will aim for. The Tesla Semi site advertises charging “up to 70% of range in 30 minutes.” Assuming the 1000kWh battery, and even if Tesla is referring to charging from 10% to 70% (a 60% gain or 600kWh of energy), the charger would have to output 1,200kWh (1.2MWh) of power to achieve that or 600kWh for the 500kWh battery.

However, this leads to more questions than answers. Will Tesla cap Tesla Semi production to protect their consumer offerings? Will Tesla consumer vehicles shift away from 4680 cells? Or will Tesla vastly expand battery cell production to keep up with demand for all of its products? Tesla has not indicated any changes, but facing brutal math, they may be forced to make some hard decisions.

What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!

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Will is an auto enthusiast, a gear head, and an EV enthusiast above all. From racing, to industry data, to the most advanced EV tech on earth, he now covers it at Teslarati.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets tip of the hat from major Wall Street firm on self-driving prowess

“Tesla is at the forefront of autonomous driving, supported by a camera-only approach that is technically harder but much cheaper than the multi-sensor systems widely used in the industry. This strategy should allow Tesla to scale more profitably compared to Robotaxi competitors, helped by a growing data engine from its existing fleet,” BoA wrote.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla received a tip of the hat from major Wall Street firm Bank of America on Wednesday, as it reinitiated coverage on Tesla shares with a bullish stance that comes with a ‘Buy’ rating and a $460 price target.

In a new note that marks a sharp reversal from its neutral position earlier in 2025, the bank declared Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology the “leading consumer autonomy solution.”

Analysts highlighted Tesla’s camera-only architecture, known as Tesla Vision, as a strategic masterstroke. While technically more challenging than the multi-sensor setups favored by rivals, the vision-based approach is dramatically cheaper to produce and maintain.

This cost edge, combined with Tesla’s rapidly expanding real-world data engine, positions the company to scale robotaxis far more profitably than competitors, BofA argues in the new note:

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“Tesla is at the forefront of autonomous driving, supported by a camera-only approach that is technically harder but much cheaper than the multi-sensor systems widely used in the industry. This strategy should allow Tesla to scale more profitably compared to Robotaxi competitors, helped by a growing data engine from its existing fleet.”

The bank now attributes roughly 52% of Tesla’s total valuation to its Robotaxi ambitions. It also flagged meaningful upside from the Optimus humanoid robot program and the fast-growing energy storage business, suggesting the auto segment’s recent headwinds, including expired incentives, are being eclipsed by these higher-margin opportunities.

Tesla’s own data underscores exactly why Wall Street is waking up to FSD’s potential. According to Tesla’s official safety reporting page, the FSD Supervised fleet has now surpassed 8.4 billion cumulative miles driven.

Tesla FSD (Supervised) fleet passes 8.4 billion cumulative miles

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That total ballooned from just 6 million miles in 2021 to 80 million in 2022, 670 million in 2023, 2.25 billion in 2024, and a staggering 4.25 billion in 2025 alone. In the first 50 days of 2026, owners added another 1 billion miles — averaging more than 20 million miles per day.

This avalanche of real-world, camera-captured footage, much of it on complex city streets, gives Tesla an unmatched training dataset. Every mile feeds its neural networks, accelerating improvement cycles that lidar-dependent rivals simply cannot match at scale.

Tesla owners themselves will tell you the suite gets better with every release, bringing new features and improvements to its self-driving project.

The $460 target implies roughly 15 percent upside from recent trading levels around $400. While regulatory and safety hurdles remain, BofA’s endorsement signals growing institutional conviction that Tesla’s data advantage is not hype; it’s a tangible moat already delivering billions of miles of proof.

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Tesla to discuss expansion of Samsung AI6 production plans: report

Tesla has reportedly requested an additional 24,000 wafers per month, which would bring total production capacity to around 40,000 wafers if finalized.

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Tesla-Chips-HW3-1
Credit: Tom Cross

Tesla is reportedly discussing an expansion of its next-generation AI chip supply deal with Samsung Electronics. 

As per a report from Korean industry outlet The Elec, Tesla purchasing executives are reportedly scheduled to meet Samsung officials this week to negotiate additional production volume for the company’s upcoming AI6 chip.

Industry sources cited in the report stated that Tesla is pushing to increase the production volume of its AI6 chip, which will be manufactured using Samsung’s 2-nanometer process.

Tesla previously signed a long-term foundry agreement with Samsung covering AI6 production through December 31, 2033. The deal was reportedly valued at about 22.8 trillion won (roughly $16–17 billion).

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Under the existing agreement, Tesla secured approximately 16,000 wafers per month from the facility. The company has reportedly requested an additional 24,000 wafers per month, which would bring total production capacity to around 40,000 wafers if finalized.

Tesla purchasing executives are expected to discuss detailed supply terms during their visit to Samsung this week.

The AI6 chip is expected to support several Tesla technologies. Industry sources stated that the chip could be used for the company’s Full Self-Driving system, the Optimus humanoid robot, and Tesla’s internal AI data centers.

The report also indicated that AI6 clusters could replace the role previously planned for Tesla’s Dojo AI supercomputer. Instead of a single system, multiple AI6 chips would be combined into server-level clusters.

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Tesla’s semiconductor collaboration with Samsung dates back several years. Samsung participated in the design of Tesla’s HW3 (AI3) chip and manufactured it using a 14-nanometer process. The HW4 chip currently used in Tesla vehicles was also produced by Samsung using a 5-nanometer node.

Tesla previously planned to split production of its AI5 chip between Samsung and TSMC. However, the company reportedly chose Samsung as the primary partner for the newer AI6 chip.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk: Tesla could be first to build AGI in humanoid form

Musk’s statement was shared in a post on social media platform X.  

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk predicted that Tesla could become one of the developers of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in humanoid form. Musk’s statement was shared in a post on social media platform X.  

In his post, Musk stated that “Tesla will be one of the companies to make AGI and probably the first to make it in humanoid/atom-shaping form.”

The comment comes as Tesla expands development of its Optimus humanoid robot.

During Tesla’s Q4 earnings report, Elon Musk stated that production of the Model S and Model X would be phased out at its Fremont, California, facility. The vehicles’ production line will then be converted to a pilot line for Optimus. Tesla is looking to produce 1 million units of the humanoid robots annually to start.

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Musk has previously stated that Optimus could eventually function as a von Neumann probe. The concept, proposed by mathematician John von Neumann, describes a machine capable of replicating itself using planetary resources and sending those replicas to other worlds.

Optimus would likely only be able to achieve this potential if it manages to achieve Artificial General Intelligence.

Other leaders in the AI sector have also expressed strong expectations about AGI’s potential. Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, recently spoke about the technology at the India AI Impact Summit 2026, as noted in a Benzinga report.

“It’s going to be something like ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution, but happening at ten times the speed,” Hassabis said.

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Elon Musk’s recent comments about Tesla producing a product with AGI could hint at further collaboration among his companies. So far, Tesla is actively pursuing autonomous driving, but it is xAI that is pursuing AGI with its Grok program.

Considering that Elon Musk mentioned a Tesla humanoid product with AGI, it appears that an Optimus robot running xAI’s AI models could become a reality.

xAI had recently merged with SpaceX, though reports suggest that Elon Musk is also considering an even bigger merger for all his companies, including Tesla.

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