Investor's Corner
Tesla short and borderline troll celebrated for Model 3 parking lot surveillance work
It is not difficult to see that Tesla is an extremely polarizing company. Headed by a polarizing figure such as Elon Musk, it is no surprise to see the electric car maker attracting a devoted group of supporters and an equally dedicated group of critics. Among Tesla’s staunchest critics are short-sellers betting against the company, some of whom maintain an active presence on Twitter.
One of Tesla’s most prominent short-sellers on Twitter is Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital, who has a heavy bet against the electric car maker. Spiegel has become a mainstay in anti-Tesla discussions, frequently posting incendiary tweets on his account and appearing on television to air his thesis about the company. One of Spiegel’s recent tweets, a screenshot of which could be found below, involves him proudly blocking a Supercharger station with his Porsche Boxster S — an act intended to inconvenience owners and incite reactions from Tesla supporters.
Just yesterday, Reuters published a report about the work being done by a number of Tesla bears. Unlike Spiegel, the subjects of the article were small-time investors who are personally betting against the company. Among these were Brodie Ferguson, a 25-year-old Canadian with a short position on TSLA, and small business owner Paul Shust, who also maintains a critical stance against the company.
Surprisingly, the Reuters report also included the work of an anonymous but self-proclaimed Tesla short, called @Latriffe, who has taken it upon himself to track the activity in Tesla’s overflow lot at the Burbank Airport. After the Q2 2018 earnings call, Latriffe announced on his Twitter account that he would be putting the Burbank Airport lot under 24/7 surveillance since he hypothesized that the mass number of vehicles being taken to the location was proof that demand for the Model 3 was declining, or that cars being produced were defective. This argument was contradicted by Tesla in the second quarter earnings call, when Tesla worldwide head of sales Robin Ren stated that demand for the electric sedan remains high.
Reuters writers Michelle Price and Sarah Lynch, who penned the article, celebrated the efforts of the Tesla short-sellers on Twitter, dubbing the piece as a “story on the fascinating world of amateur sleuthing and research on Tesla that some would say puts most Wall Street analysts to shame.” The reaction from Tesla’s supporters on the social media platform was immediate, with many calling out the writers for including the still-anonymous Latriffe as a valid source in the article. As it turns out, the TSLA bear’s interactions with Tesla’s supporters online were questionable at best.
Big thanks to @Latrilife @brodieferguson @Paul_M_Huettner and many others for sticking with me and @SarahNLynch on this story on the fascinating world of amateur sleuthing and research on Tesla that some would say puts most Wall Street analysts to shame https://t.co/WfOCsFPmaq
— Michelle Price (@michelleprice36) August 29, 2018
Tesla bull @tslalytix has compiled a number of the short-seller’s messages sent to the company’s supporters, and they are quite disturbing. Included in his posts are homophobic slurs, misogynistic messages, and sexual innuendos addressed to Tesla supporters and Elon Musk (to name a few). Tslalytix’s compilation of the short-seller’s screenshots could be accessed here, but be warned as a number of the posts include strong language. Amidst the complaints from Tesla supporters, Michelle Price clarified in a later tweet that they followed due procedure when they cleared the Tesla short as a source for the article.
Ha, I love the assumption of knowledge in this tweet accusing us of making assumptions of knowledge about anonymous Twitter accounts. For the record, we did multiple and varied checks on the one anonymous source we quote.
— Michelle Price (@michelleprice36) August 30, 2018
As Tesla approaches the final month of the third quarter, the heat surrounding the company is only bound to increase. Tesla is currently attempting to hit profitability, while hitting new production records for the Model 3. The company’s production rate during the first two months of Q3 is somewhat encouraging, particularly since Elon Musk confirmed in the Q2 earnings call that Tesla was able to hit a pace of 5,000 Model 3/week during “multiple weeks” in July. August’s production figures could be a pleasant surprise as well, as Bloomberg‘s Model 3 production tracker registered a production rate of 6,000 Model 3 per week at one point. VIN registrations are also encouraging, as Tesla passed the 100,000-vehicle mark during the month.
Being the most shorted stock in the market, it is not surprising to see the amount of vitriol directed at Tesla. That said, there are times when TSLA bears miss their mark. Last July, for example, Gordon L. Johnson, an analyst from Vertical Research Group and one of the company’s more vocal critics in Wall Street, made a grave mistake when he published a note to clients based on a fallacious report against Tesla. He later apologized to his firm’s clients about his error.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
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Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
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“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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