Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) analyst cut off in Q1 earnings call reaches out to Elon Musk
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) continues to recover since nosediving last week, gaining back more than $2 billion of its market cap since Monday. Amidst what appears to be a continuous rise in the electric car maker’s stocks, Joseph Spak, the analyst from RBC Capital Markets who Musk cut off during Tesla’s Q1 2018 earnings call, has reached out to the CEO through an open letter.
During the first-quarter earnings call, Spak asked Musk if he could give an idea about the percentage of Model 3 reservation holders who are configuring their vehicles upon receiving their invites. Responding to the question, Musk stated that the questions in the Q&A were “so dry, they’re killing me.” In a series of tweets last Friday, however, Musk admitted that he should have answered the analysts’ questions, even describing his actions as “foolish.”
In an open letter to Elon Musk, RBC analyst Joseph Spak explained the rationale behind his inquiry during the earnings call. Spak also stated that Tesla remains a company that has a “compelling long-term opportunity.” Here are excerpts from Spak’s open letter to Elon Musk, as noted by The Street.
“Tesla remains an amazing company with a compelling long-term opportunity and an incredible list of accomplishments already under its belt. But I continue to hold Tesla (and every company I cover) accountable for implementing a strategic vision that aligns with an ability to execute at scale.
“As an analyst, my responsibility is to be well informed when I discuss Tesla’s stock with current and potential investors. A financial results call is an opportunity for Wall Street to recalibrate our expectations based on the information you provide, so we can thoughtfully reflect on the financial outlook for your company.
“Our questions collectively represent the concerns and interests of your current and potential shareholders. Some of these questions can seem dry, boring or short-term focused, but hopefully, you can appreciate that anyone looking to invest in Tesla’s future must first be comfortable with its present.”
The RBC analyst went on to invite Musk to a webcast or a phone call in order to discuss the company’s current state and ensure that there is no miscommunication between Tesla, its investors, and Wall Street. Spak further stated that all Musk needs to do is “name a time and place,” and he will be there with one of Tesla’s major shareholders.
RBC Capital Markets rates Tesla as sector Perform, with a price target of $280, roughly 7% lower than the stock’s current levels. Spak explained the rationale behind RBC’s stance on TSLA in his note.
“Our sector perform rating is based on our view that while Tesla is a very innovative and disruptive company with strong growth ahead via disrupting large addressable markets, it is also a classic story stock that is difficult to value given that the investment decision is often qualitative rather than quantitative,” Spak wrote.
Elon Musk has been doubling down on his efforts to push Tesla towards profitability by the third or fourth quarter. Apart from predicting the “short burn of the century,” Musk also recently took the fight to Tesla bears, buying nearly $10 million worth of stocks, increasing his stake at the company.
As of writing, TSLA shares are trading up .18% at $302.52 during Monday’s intraday.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum
Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.
Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.”
Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.
Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative
Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.
Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.
Still cautious on TSLA
Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.
Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.
Investor's Corner
BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating
The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels.
The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.
Tesla’s valuation
In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.
The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.
Tesla and its peers
BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.
The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) had coverage initiated on it by a new firm this week, and analysts said that the company’s comfort level with taking risks makes it a “must own” for investors.
Melius Research and analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage of the stock this week with a $520 price target and a “Buy” rating. The price target is about 20 percent higher than the current trading price as shares closed at $435 on Wednesday, up 1.38 percent on the day.
Wertheimer said in the note to investors that introduced their opinion on Tesla shares that the company has a lot going for it, including a prowess in AI, domination in its automotive division, and an incredible expertise in manufacturing and supply chain.
He wrote:
“We see Tesla shares as a must-own. The disruptive force of AI will wreck multitrillion-dollar industries, starting with auto. Under Musk’s leadership, the company is comfortable taking risks. It has manufacturing scale and supply chain expertise that robotics startups possess more by proxy. It can rapidly improve and scale autonomy in driving, the first major manifestation of AI in the physical world.”
However, there were some drawbacks to the stock, according to Wertheimer, including its valuation, which he believes is “challenging” given its fundamentals. He said the $1 trillion market cap that the company represented was “guesswork,” and not necessarily something that could be outlined on paper.
This has been discussed by other analysts in the past, too. Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld recently called Tesla the “biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen,” by stating:
“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”
Additionally, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman said:
“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”
Some analysts covering Tesla have said they believe the stock is traded on narrative and not necessarily fundamentals.
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