Investor's Corner
TSLA’s biggest bull is beating Wall St just as hard as Tesla is beating legacy automakers
Last May 2019, ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood posted a bold call about electric car maker Tesla. Wood was considered as one of Tesla’s most ardent bulls then, holding a $4,000 per share long-term price target on the company. It was an amount that some in Wall Street seemingly refused to take seriously, but in May, Wood doubled down, publishing a new bull case valuation for Tesla, implying that the company could hit a share price of $6,000.
Proving Critics Wrong
Criticism and mockery came quickly. Tesla bears and short-sellers, many of whom were smelling blood in the water then with TSLA’s ~$200 per share price, immediately criticized Wood. Jim Chanos, one of Tesla’s biggest short-sellers who has been pounding the table with the idea that the electric car maker is worth zero, criticized ARK’s forecasts for the company’s gross margins. Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at New York University, flat-out refused to acknowledge Wood’s point, stating that the $1 trillion valuation that ARK was tying to Tesla was “more fairy tale” than reality.
That was May 2019, and Tesla was being battered left and right by analysts posting bearish outlooks on the company. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas even posted a “bear case” price of $10 per share for Tesla stock, pulling down the electric car maker even further. Yet even then, Wood remained steadfast and unwavering, and ARK continued to buy TSLA shares.
Sixteen months later, Tesla is now trading at about $420 per share — after a five-for-one stock split in August. Instead of following the bearish outlooks of critics from the previous year, Tesla stock had risen tenfold, driven partly by the company’s steady demand for its vehicles and its evident edge against competitors, both from new companies and legacy automakers alike. Tesla is now worth more than five times Ford and General Motors combined, and the company seems poised to reach even newer heights with its energy storage business and battery production plans.
All About Innovation
This has not stopped the critics, of course, with Wood and ARK’s analysts dealing with negativity from groups such as TSLAQ on a consistent basis. Wood, for her part, welcomes the critics. In a statement to Forbes, the ARK founder stated that “It almost makes me feel comfortable, to be honest, because it means if we’re right, then the rewards will be pretty enormous.” Considering ARK’s performance so far, Wood seems to be right on the money. Tesla’s massive rise, for one, has helped propel ARK Invest into one of the fastest-growing and top-performing investment firms in the market, with its flagship ARK Innovation Fund being up 75% in 2020. ARK Innovation Fund has returned an annual average of 36% over the past five years, almost three times that of the S&P 500.
In a way, ARK Invest could be seen as a disruptor on its own, similar to the companies that it so ardently supports. The firm makes its research freely available online for anyone to access, and it also shares the logs for its trades. Even ARK’s workforce is not the run-of-the-mill Wall Street, with Wood preferring to hire young analysts with specialized backgrounds in niche subjects such as molecular biology or computer engineering, as they are likely to be equipped with the necessary skills and background to spot the next trend. This has allowed ARK to take strong positions in numerous emerging technologies, such as autonomous vehicles and DNA sequencing.
ARK’s position in Tesla and the pandemic, which has accelerated the adoption of companies and technologies that are included in the company’s ETF, have helped grow its assets almost threefold this year. Today, ARK holds about $29 billion worth of assets and is valued conservatively by Forbes at about $500 million. “Coronavirus has catapulted our innovative platforms into high gear because they solve problems. Innovation solves problems,” Wood noted. Considering that Wood holds an over-50% ownership of ARK, she currently has a net worth of about $250 million, earning her the No.80 spot in Forbes’ sixth annual list of America’s Richest Self-Made Women.
Betting on Disruption
In a way, ARK’s eventual victory over critics reflects much of Wood’s background. Wood started her career in finance when she apprenticed at Los Angeles fund Capital Group from 1977 to 1980. During her time there, she saw firsthand how interest rates that were approaching 20% adversely affected the market. Wood graduated in 1981 and joined Jennison Associates in New York as an economist. While there, she made an early call that inflation and interest rates had peaked, prompting dismissal from her superiors. As fate would have it, Wood was right.
Wood was eventually moved to Jennison’s equity research division, where she covered the wireless telecom companies in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. She saw firsthand the economic and societal changes that came as mobile phones became ubiquitous. She later moved New York-based AllianceBernstein as chief investment officer for thematic portfolios in 2001, and by the time the 2008 financial crisis hit, Wood figured that a fresh approach was needed for ETFs. In 2012, Wood proposed putting actively managed portfolios of innovative firms inside an ETF structure, but the idea was shunned at AllianceBernstein.
ARK Invest was launched two years later, but the first years of the firm were challenging, with the flagship fund ranking in the bottom quartile of its peer group, as per data from Morningstar. To keep the firm afloat, Wood dug into her savings and sold minority stakes and initiated partnerships with massive firms like Japan’s Nikko Asset Management and the mutual fund firm American Beacon, two companies that now own 39% of ARK. These efforts paid off for Wood, as ARK took off in 2017, thanks to its bets on stocks like Netflix, Salesforce, Illumina, Square, and Athenahealth. Wood also started buying Bitcoin in 2015 at $250 a coin, which the CEO calls an “insurance policy” against inflation.
Overall, Wood’s approach has allowed ARK Invest to thrive in one of the most challenging periods in recent years. The coronavirus pandemic hit hard in March, and the stock market proceeded to plunge. Using her nose for innovative companies, Wood proceeded to focus ARK’s portfolio on fast-growing companies that she believes have the potential to lead the world towards recovery. Together with Tesla, ARK proceeded to load up stocks from education-software company 2U, real estate platform Zillow, and Slack, a workplace messaging platform.
Tesla is a difficult company to value, with Elon Musk describing it more as a collection of startups that are working alongside one another. The company has confounded Wall Street for years, and continues to do so. But if ARK’s performance is anything to go by, Tesla’s valuation and performance may be most accurately analyzed by a firm with an outlook that’s just as disruptive and unique. And this, for Wood, is something that could very well make ARK even more successful in the future.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk just upped his Tesla stake further fueling SpaceX merger conversation
Elon Musk just collected a $116 billion Tesla payday and the timing is eye-opening
Elon Musk quietly collected one of the largest single-transaction paydays in corporate history on Monday. A Form 4 filed with the SEC on June 17, 2026 disclosed that Musk exercised 303,960,630 Tesla stock options from his 2018 compensation package, with the transaction dated June 16. No shares were sold on the open market.
The numbers are straightforward but striking. Musk exercised the options at a split-adjusted strike price of $23.34, with Tesla closing at $404.66 that day, putting the spread at $381.32 per share and generating roughly $115.9 billion in paper gains in a single transaction. To cover the exercise cost, Tesla withheld 17,531,857 shares through a net share settlement, meaning Musk paid nothing out of pocket.
For perspective, in 2018, Elon Musk’s award was originally approved by Tesla shareholders on March 21, 2018, and structured entirely around performance milestones that many analysts at the time called unreachable. Every tranche eventually vested. The original grant covered 20,264,042 shares at $350.02, which after Tesla’s 5-for-1 split in 2020 and 3-for-1 split in 2022 adjusted to 303,960,630 shares at $23.34. A Delaware court rescinded the award in January 2024, ruling the board was conflicted. As Teslarati reported, Tesla shareholders voted to ratify the package anyway in June 2024 by a wide margin. The Delaware Supreme Court reversed the decision in December 2025, finding full cancellation too extreme, and Tesla’s board signed an Implementation Agreement on April 21, 2026 to formally deliver the shares.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
The timing and structure of the Form 4 filing carries more weight than a routine stock option exercise typically would. Musk exercised his 2018 Tesla award on June 16, a week into SpaceX completing its IPO and trading publicly, and giving SpaceX a public market valuation and share currency for the first time in the company’s history. A stock-for-stock merger between two companies requires the acquiring entity to have tradeable shares it can offer to the target’s shareholders, and SpaceX now has exactly that. At the same time, Musk just increased his direct Tesla voting power to approximately 20%, giving him greater influence over any shareholder vote that a merger would require. The restricted shares he received cannot be sold until 2033, which removes any near-term incentive to cash out and instead positions this stake as long-term structural collateral in a deal. Additionally, Musk’s two companies are already deeply intertwined through shared semiconductor fabrication at their joint TERAFAB facility in Austin, cross-company supply chain transactions, and Tesla’s $2 billion investment in xAI prior to the SpaceX-xAI merger.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has publicly placed the odds of a Tesla and SpaceX combination at 80% to 90% by early 2027. The Implementation Agreement that made Monday’s exercise possible was signed on April 21, 2026, roughly two months before the SpaceX IPO closed. That sequencing, building Musk’s Tesla ownership to its highest point ever immediately before SpaceX gains the public currency needed to acquire it, is either an extraordinary coincidence or a carefully staged foundation for the largest corporate merger in history.
Tesla deliveries got a big boost in expectations from Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs, who believes the company will report some stronger-than-expected numbers when the second quarter comes to an end in the coming weeks.
Goldman Sachs has raised its vehicle delivery forecast for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) in the second quarter of 2026, signaling growing confidence in the electric vehicle leader’s near-term momentum despite mixed market signals. Analyst Mark Delaney lifted the bank’s Q2 estimate to 420,000 units from a previous 405,000, surpassing the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 400,000.
The upward revision stems from stronger-than-expected sales data across key regions. Europe stands out with projected year-over-year growth of 85-90 percent, driven by robust demand for Tesla’s Model Y and refreshed offerings. China posted high single-digit gains, while markets like South Korea and Australia also contributed positive momentum. These gains help offset mid-teens declines in U.S. deliveries through May, where broader EV market headwinds and competition persist.
Goldman extended its optimism to the full year, increasing its 2026 delivery projection to 1.73 million vehicles from 1.72 million. Longer-term forecasts remain unchanged, with 1.88 million units expected in 2027 and 1.96 million in 2028. The bank also nudged its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate higher to $1.35 from $1.30, reflecting anticipated margin benefits from higher volumes and operational efficiencies.
Despite these positive adjustments, Goldman maintained its Neutral rating and $375 price target on Tesla shares. At current trading levels near $411, the stock sits about 8-9 percent above the target, highlighting ongoing valuation concerns even as delivery momentum builds. Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries totaled 358,023 units, setting a baseline for recovery expectations in the current period.
This update arrives as Tesla prepares to report official Q2 figures shortly after June 30. Investors and analysts will closely watch not only headline delivery numbers but also regional breakdowns, average selling prices, and progress on energy storage deployments and autonomous technology initiatives.
The move by Goldman Sachs underscores a broader narrative for Tesla: while legacy auto markets face softening demand and tariff uncertainties, Tesla’s global footprint and product pipeline provide resilience. Europe’s surge reflects pent-up demand and policy support for EVs, while China’s steady growth highlights Tesla’s competitive positioning against local rivals.
Tesla still has its work cut out for it, including U.S. price sensitivity and intensifying competition. Yet Goldman’s revision adds to a series of analyst notes suggesting Q2 could mark a turning point. As Tesla pushes toward higher production rates at facilities in Fremont, Shanghai, and Berlin, sustained execution will be key to validating these higher forecasts.
We have said numerous times that deliveries are becoming a less important metric in the grand scheme of things, as AI truly takes precedence in the company’s thesis.
For Tesla bulls, the Goldman note reinforces faith in underlying demand trends. For skeptics, the unchanged rating serves as a reminder that delivery beats alone may not immediately resolve valuation debates in a high-interest-rate environment. Tesla’s stock reaction will likely hinge on the official numbers and management commentary in the coming weeks.
Renowned investor Ron Baron, founder and CEO of Baron Capital, has once again demonstrated his unwavering faith in Elon Musk’s ventures.
Just after SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO, Baron announced he purchased an additional $1 billion in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares. This move pushes Baron Capital’s total holdings in the company to a staggering $25 billion in market value, underscoring one of the most successful private-to-public investment stories in recent history.
Baron’s relationship with SpaceX dates back to 2017, when his firm began investing approximately $1.75–2 billion through secondary markets and employee tender offers at valuations around $20–22 billion.
By the time of the IPO, which valued SpaceX at over $2 trillion with shares closing near $161, those early stakes had generated more than $13 billion in unrealized gains. Post-IPO, Baron’s position ballooned further, reflecting the company’s meteoric rise driven by reusable rocketry, Starlink’s global satellite internet constellation, Starshield defense applications, and ambitious plans for orbital infrastructure.
In a recent interview, Baron articulated his bullish outlook with characteristic enthusiasm.
Ron Baron said today that he bought $1 billion of @SpaceX IPO shares last Friday, and said that all of Baron Capital’s $SPCX holdings are now worth $25 billion.
“I think we’re going to make hundreds of billions of dollars; If you read the prospectus, you realize what they… pic.twitter.com/U8F471KtJS
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 15, 2026
“I think we’re going to make hundreds of billions of dollars,” he stated, emphasizing that SpaceX’s achievements in rocketry and satellite technology are “not possible for anyone else to accomplish.” He envisions the company as a cornerstone of humanity’s multi-planetary future, potentially reaching valuations of $10–30 trillion within 10–15 years.
Baron has repeatedly affirmed he has no plans to sell, viewing SpaceX as a “lifetime investment” alongside Tesla.
Tesla bull Ron Baron reveals $100M SpaceX investment, sees 3-5x return on TSLA
This conviction stems from SpaceX’s unparalleled execution. The company has revolutionized access to space with Falcon 9 reusability, deployed thousands of Starlink satellites, and is advancing Starship for Mars missions and point-to-point Earth transport.
Baron highlights emerging opportunities like space-based AI data centers and direct-to-cell satellite connectivity, positioning SpaceX at the forefront of a new space economy projected to generate trillions in value.
Critics may question the lofty projections amid high valuations and execution risks, but Baron’s track record speaks volumes. His Tesla holdings, initiated in the mid-2010s, have also delivered outsized returns. As one of the largest institutional holders of SpaceX pre-IPO, Baron Capital’s funds, such as Baron Partners, benefited immensely from valuation markups.
Baron’s $1 billion IPO purchase signals deep confidence in SpaceX’s post-IPO trajectory. In an era of short-term market noise, his strategy exemplifies patient capital: backing visionary leadership and transformative technology.
For investors watching the space sector, it serves as a powerful endorsement that the final frontier may indeed yield the next great wealth-creation engine. As Baron puts it, SpaceX isn’t just building rockets—it’s trying to “save humanity” by expanding our horizons beyond Earth.
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