Investor's Corner
TSLA’s biggest bull is beating Wall St just as hard as Tesla is beating legacy automakers
Last May 2019, ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood posted a bold call about electric car maker Tesla. Wood was considered as one of Tesla’s most ardent bulls then, holding a $4,000 per share long-term price target on the company. It was an amount that some in Wall Street seemingly refused to take seriously, but in May, Wood doubled down, publishing a new bull case valuation for Tesla, implying that the company could hit a share price of $6,000.
Proving Critics Wrong
Criticism and mockery came quickly. Tesla bears and short-sellers, many of whom were smelling blood in the water then with TSLA’s ~$200 per share price, immediately criticized Wood. Jim Chanos, one of Tesla’s biggest short-sellers who has been pounding the table with the idea that the electric car maker is worth zero, criticized ARK’s forecasts for the company’s gross margins. Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at New York University, flat-out refused to acknowledge Wood’s point, stating that the $1 trillion valuation that ARK was tying to Tesla was “more fairy tale” than reality.
That was May 2019, and Tesla was being battered left and right by analysts posting bearish outlooks on the company. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas even posted a “bear case” price of $10 per share for Tesla stock, pulling down the electric car maker even further. Yet even then, Wood remained steadfast and unwavering, and ARK continued to buy TSLA shares.
Sixteen months later, Tesla is now trading at about $420 per share — after a five-for-one stock split in August. Instead of following the bearish outlooks of critics from the previous year, Tesla stock had risen tenfold, driven partly by the company’s steady demand for its vehicles and its evident edge against competitors, both from new companies and legacy automakers alike. Tesla is now worth more than five times Ford and General Motors combined, and the company seems poised to reach even newer heights with its energy storage business and battery production plans.
All About Innovation
This has not stopped the critics, of course, with Wood and ARK’s analysts dealing with negativity from groups such as TSLAQ on a consistent basis. Wood, for her part, welcomes the critics. In a statement to Forbes, the ARK founder stated that “It almost makes me feel comfortable, to be honest, because it means if we’re right, then the rewards will be pretty enormous.” Considering ARK’s performance so far, Wood seems to be right on the money. Tesla’s massive rise, for one, has helped propel ARK Invest into one of the fastest-growing and top-performing investment firms in the market, with its flagship ARK Innovation Fund being up 75% in 2020. ARK Innovation Fund has returned an annual average of 36% over the past five years, almost three times that of the S&P 500.
In a way, ARK Invest could be seen as a disruptor on its own, similar to the companies that it so ardently supports. The firm makes its research freely available online for anyone to access, and it also shares the logs for its trades. Even ARK’s workforce is not the run-of-the-mill Wall Street, with Wood preferring to hire young analysts with specialized backgrounds in niche subjects such as molecular biology or computer engineering, as they are likely to be equipped with the necessary skills and background to spot the next trend. This has allowed ARK to take strong positions in numerous emerging technologies, such as autonomous vehicles and DNA sequencing.
ARK’s position in Tesla and the pandemic, which has accelerated the adoption of companies and technologies that are included in the company’s ETF, have helped grow its assets almost threefold this year. Today, ARK holds about $29 billion worth of assets and is valued conservatively by Forbes at about $500 million. “Coronavirus has catapulted our innovative platforms into high gear because they solve problems. Innovation solves problems,” Wood noted. Considering that Wood holds an over-50% ownership of ARK, she currently has a net worth of about $250 million, earning her the No.80 spot in Forbes’ sixth annual list of America’s Richest Self-Made Women.
Betting on Disruption
In a way, ARK’s eventual victory over critics reflects much of Wood’s background. Wood started her career in finance when she apprenticed at Los Angeles fund Capital Group from 1977 to 1980. During her time there, she saw firsthand how interest rates that were approaching 20% adversely affected the market. Wood graduated in 1981 and joined Jennison Associates in New York as an economist. While there, she made an early call that inflation and interest rates had peaked, prompting dismissal from her superiors. As fate would have it, Wood was right.
Wood was eventually moved to Jennison’s equity research division, where she covered the wireless telecom companies in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. She saw firsthand the economic and societal changes that came as mobile phones became ubiquitous. She later moved New York-based AllianceBernstein as chief investment officer for thematic portfolios in 2001, and by the time the 2008 financial crisis hit, Wood figured that a fresh approach was needed for ETFs. In 2012, Wood proposed putting actively managed portfolios of innovative firms inside an ETF structure, but the idea was shunned at AllianceBernstein.
ARK Invest was launched two years later, but the first years of the firm were challenging, with the flagship fund ranking in the bottom quartile of its peer group, as per data from Morningstar. To keep the firm afloat, Wood dug into her savings and sold minority stakes and initiated partnerships with massive firms like Japan’s Nikko Asset Management and the mutual fund firm American Beacon, two companies that now own 39% of ARK. These efforts paid off for Wood, as ARK took off in 2017, thanks to its bets on stocks like Netflix, Salesforce, Illumina, Square, and Athenahealth. Wood also started buying Bitcoin in 2015 at $250 a coin, which the CEO calls an “insurance policy” against inflation.
Overall, Wood’s approach has allowed ARK Invest to thrive in one of the most challenging periods in recent years. The coronavirus pandemic hit hard in March, and the stock market proceeded to plunge. Using her nose for innovative companies, Wood proceeded to focus ARK’s portfolio on fast-growing companies that she believes have the potential to lead the world towards recovery. Together with Tesla, ARK proceeded to load up stocks from education-software company 2U, real estate platform Zillow, and Slack, a workplace messaging platform.
Tesla is a difficult company to value, with Elon Musk describing it more as a collection of startups that are working alongside one another. The company has confounded Wall Street for years, and continues to do so. But if ARK’s performance is anything to go by, Tesla’s valuation and performance may be most accurately analyzed by a firm with an outlook that’s just as disruptive and unique. And this, for Wood, is something that could very well make ARK even more successful in the future.
Investor's Corner
Legendary investor Ron Baron says Tesla and SpaceX stock buys will continue
In a wide-ranging appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box on May 12, legendary investor Ron Baron, founder, CEO, and portfolio manager of Baron Capital, reaffirmed his deep conviction in Elon Musk’s two flagship companies.
Legendary investor Ron Baron says he will continue buying stock of both Tesla and SpaceX, as he continues his support behind CEO Elon Musk, who he says is a special person and “brilliant.”
In a wide-ranging appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box on May 12, legendary investor Ron Baron, founder, CEO, and portfolio manager of Baron Capital, reaffirmed his deep conviction in Elon Musk’s two flagship companies.
With assets under management approaching $55–56 billion, Baron detailed his firm’s substantial holdings, outlined plans for the anticipated SpaceX IPO, and painted an exceptionally optimistic picture for both Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX, framing them as generational opportunities that will reshape industries and deliver extraordinary long-term returns.
Baron Capital’s position in SpaceX has grown dramatically since the firm began investing around 2017. What started as roughly $1.7 billion has ballooned to more than $15 billion, making it the firm’s largest holding.
Tesla ranks second, valued at approximately $5 billion in the portfolio. Together with stakes in xAI and related Musk-led ventures, these investments account for roughly one-third of Baron Capital’s $60 billion in lifetime profits since 1992. Baron emphasized that the growth stems from Musk’s singular ability to execute ambitious visions—from reusable rockets to global satellite internet and beyond.
The centerpiece of the discussion was SpaceX’s expected initial public offering, targeted for mid-2026 following a confidential S-1 filing. Baron announced plans to purchase an additional $1 billion in shares at the IPO.
Ron Baron said today that he plans on buying an additional $1 billion of SpaceX stock during the upcoming IPO:
“At the IPO price, I’ve got an order for $1 billion. I want to buy more stock at the IPO. I don’t know if we’re going to get filled, but we’re going to try. I believe… pic.twitter.com/KOv1HvYcZ0
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 12, 2026
He described the company’s trajectory in sweeping terms: “This is going to become the largest company on the planet.”
He highlighted Starlink’s expansion of high-speed internet to every corner of the globe, the revolutionary economics of reusable rockets, and Starship’s potential to enable massive space-based data centers and interplanetary infrastructure.
Baron sees SpaceX not merely as a rocket company but as a platform poised for exponential scaling once it goes public, with post-IPO appreciation potentially reaching 10- to 20- or even 30-times current levels over the next decade or more.
On Tesla, Baron struck an equally enthusiastic note, declaring that “now is Tesla’s moment.” He projected the stock could reach $2,000 to $2,500 per share within 10 years—implying a market capitalization near $8.3 trillion and roughly 5–6 times upside from recent levels. While Tesla remains a major holding, Baron’s optimism centers on its evolution beyond electric vehicles into an AI, robotics, autonomous-driving, and energy platform.
He pointed to robotaxis, Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, Optimus humanoid robots, energy storage, and the vast real-world data advantage from Tesla’s global fleet as catalysts that will fundamentally alter the company’s revenue model and valuation multiples. Baron views these developments as transformative, shifting Tesla from a traditional automaker to a high-margin technology and infrastructure powerhouse.
Throughout the interview, Baron’s admiration for Musk was unmistakable. He has likened the entrepreneur to a modern Leonardo da Vinci for his artistic, multidisciplinary approach to solving humanity’s biggest challenges.
Baron’s personal commitment mirrors this confidence: he has repeatedly stated he does not expect to sell a single share of his own Tesla or SpaceX holdings in his lifetime, positioning himself as the “last one out” after his clients. This stance underscores a philosophy of patient, long-term ownership rather than short-term trading.
Baron’s comments arrive at a time of heightened anticipation around SpaceX’s public debut, which could rank among the largest IPOs in history and potentially value the company at $1.5–2 trillion or more at listing.
For investors, his message is clear: the Musk ecosystem—spanning electric vehicles, autonomy, robotics, satellite communications, and space exploration—represents one of the most compelling secular growth stories of the era. While short-term volatility in tech and EV stocks may persist, Baron sees these as buying opportunities for those who share his multi-decade horizon.
In summarizing his outlook, Baron reinforced that the combination of technological breakthroughs, massive addressable markets, and Musk’s leadership creates asymmetric upside that few other investments can match.
For Baron Capital’s clients and long-term Tesla and SpaceX shareholders alike, the investor’s latest CNBC remarks serve as both validation and a call to remain patient through the inevitable ups and downs. As Baron sees it, the best days for both companies—and the returns they can deliver—are still ahead.
Elon Musk
Trump’s invite for Elon just reshuffled Tesla’s big Signature Delivery Event
Tesla rescheduled its final Model S farewell to May 20 after Musk joined Trump in China.
Tesla has rescheduled its Model S and Model X Signature Edition delivery event to Wednesday, May 20, 2026, after abruptly calling off the original May 12 celebration. The event will take place at Tesla’s factory at 45500 Fremont Boulevard in Fremont, California, the same location where the Model S first rolled off the line in 2012. Invitees received a follow-up email asking them to reconfirm attendance and download a new QR code ticket, with Tesla noting that all travel and accommodation expenses remain the buyer’s responsibility.
The reason behind the original cancellation came into focus the same day it was announced. President Trump invited Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, and executives from Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Meta to join his trip to China this week for a summit with President Xi Jinping. The agenda covers trade, artificial intelligence, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war, following weeks of escalating friction between Washington and Beijing over AI technology, sanctions, and rare earth exports. Trump wrote on Truth Social, “I am very much looking forward to my trip to China, an amazing Country, with a Leader, President Xi, respected by all.”
Tesla launches 200mph Model S “Gold” Signature in invite-only purchase
The vehicles at the center of all this are the last Model S and Model X units Tesla will ever build. Priced at $159,420 each, the 250 Model S and 100 Model X Signature Edition units come finished in Garnet Red with a one-year no-resale agreement, giving Tesla right of first refusal if the owner decides to sell. As Teslarati reported, the Model S defined Tesla’s early identity as a serious luxury automaker, and the Fremont factory line that built it is now being converted to manufacture Optimus humanoid robots.
Musk’s inclusion in the China delegation drew attention given his very public relationship with Trump, and the invitation signals the two have moved past and past grievances. Trump originally brought Musk on to lead the Department of Government Efficiency following his inauguration, and despite a sharp public dispute in mid-2025, the two have appeared together repeatedly in recent months. A seat on the China trip, the most diplomatically consequential visit of Trump’s current term, puts Musk back at the table on U.S. economic policy at a moment when Tesla’s China revenue remains one of the company’s most important financial pillars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors from a fiscal standpoint, at least that is what Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler, a top Wall Street firm covering the company, says.
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Analyst Alexander Potter, in the firm’s latest “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” built a comprehensive framework covering 17 separate product lines.
This granular approach values Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, in-house insurance, Supercharging network, and a standalone robotaxi operation—at approximately $400 per share, without assigning any value to Optimus or related inference-as-a-service opportunities.
“At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” Potter stated in the note. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Tesla shares and a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot-related businesses— a figure the analyst views as potentially conservative.
The updated model incorporates elements often overlooked by other sell-side analysts, such as detailed forecasts for Tesla’s insurance operations, Supercharger revenue, and a distinct valuation for the robotaxi business separate from FSD software licensing. It also accounts for Tesla’s 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time.
Potter acknowledged that his estimates for 2026 and 2027 fall below Wall Street consensus, citing factors like declining deliveries from certain discontinued models and reduced regulatory credit income.
However, he expressed limited concern, noting that traditional vehicle delivery metrics are expected to matter less over time as FSD subscriber growth and robotaxi deployment metrics gain prominence. On Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the humanoid robot program, combined with inference services, “arguably will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” though the firm has not yet produced formal long-term forecasts for these segments.
Tesla shares have traded near the $400 range in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing investor focus on the company’s autonomous driving progress and expansion into robotics and AI. The Optimus project remains in early development stages, with Tesla aiming to deploy the robots initially for internal factory tasks before broader commercial applications.
This Piper Sandler analysis highlights the growing emphasis among some investors and analysts on Tesla’s long-term technology platform potential beyond its current automotive and energy businesses.
As with any forward-looking valuation, outcomes will depend on execution timelines, technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals for autonomous systems, and market adoption of humanoid robotics—areas that carry significant uncertainty and execution risk.
The note underscores a common theme in Tesla coverage: differing views on how to quantify emerging high-growth opportunities like robotics within the company’s overall enterprise value. Investors are advised to consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence regarding these speculative elements.
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