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Tesla's battle lines are drawn with retail investors on one side and Wall St on another

(Photo: Andres GE)

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5 years ago

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There are very few stocks in the market that inspire such volatility as American electric car maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). The company has been on a tear lately, propelled by positive Q4 2019 results and emphasized by an ever-growing number of ardent supporters online. Yet amidst these victories, it appears that Tesla has finally reached a point where the battle lines are now being drawn between the company’s supporters, particularly its retail investors and analysts from Wall Street.

Tesla is a tricky company to evaluate, mainly since it covers several industries. The electric car maker is currently the second-largest automaker in the world by market value, though it only produces and delivers a fraction of the vehicles that veteran car companies sell every year. In 2019, Tesla sold just over 367,000 vehicles. Volkswagen, the third-largest automaker according to market cap, sold over 6 million units. 

But the Tesla story is never just about the company’s electric cars. A look at Tesla’s mission shows that the company’s goals are bigger than just selling cars and making money doing so. Tesla aims to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainability, and making electric cars that are better than petrol-powered vehicles is but a crucial part of the puzzle. This also means that there are dimensions to the company that lies far beyond that of its electric car business. 

Tesla Solar Roof (Source: Tesla)

It is this last point where the divergence is most evident between Tesla’s supporters and Wall Street analysts. Tesla shareholders, many of whom actually own the company’s products, are intimately familiar with CEO Elon Musk’s overall plans and goals, as well as the scope of the company’s numerous business. Very few of those who own a Model 3, for example, are not aware that Tesla also makes solar roof tiles, or residential batteries like Powerwalls, or grid-scale batteries like Megapacks for that matter. 

Unfortunately, a good number of analysts who cover TSLA stock seem to be stuck under the impression that the company is an automaker, full stop. A look at analysts and critics who frequent media outlets such as CNBC shows that very few actually consider the potential, or even recognize the existence of Tesla Energy, a business that legendary billionaire Ron Baron believes could be just as big as the company’s electric car business. Even fewer acknowledge the value of Tesla’s Autopilot data, which are gathered from real-world miles. 

This could be seen in Wall Street’s estimates on Waymo, a Google-based company aimed at developing and deploying a self-driving service. Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak wrote in a note to clients last year that the startup is worth $105 billion because of its self-driving technology, and that’s a conservative estimate. Before last year’s update, Nowak valued Waymo at a far more optimistic $175 billion. In comparison, Tesla’s current valuation, as of last Friday’s close, stood at $134 billion. That amount included the company’s auto business, its energy business, and its autonomous driving tech. 

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Tesla Autopilot (Source: Elon Musk | Twitter)

As is the nature of Tesla stock, the company’s full potential is usually acknowledged and considered only by the company’s most ardent supporters on the Street. So for now, there is very little chance that the perception of Tesla between its retail supporters and traditional analysts will converge anytime soon. This divergence became a focal point in the company’s recent Q4 2019 earnings call, when Elon Musk admitted that retail investors might have a better grasp of the company’s plans than conventional Wall Street analysts. 

“I do think that a lot of retail investors actually have deeper and more accurate insights than many of the big institutional investors and certainly better insight than many of the analysts. It seems like if people really looked at some of the smart retail investor analysts and what some of the smart smaller retail investors predicted about the future of Tesla, you would probably get the highest accuracy and remarkable insight from some of those predictions,” Musk said.

Tesla will likely remain a polarizing company for years to come. That said, Tesla Energy’s ramp is upon the market already, and the company’s Solarglass Roof V3 are now being installed to a growing number of homes in the United States. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system is also closing in on being feature-complete. Overall, it seems that it will only be a matter of time before the true potential of Tesla emerges, and when it does, one would have to deny a whole lot of the company to consider it just as an automaker. 

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla stock rebounds and Tim Walz backtracks: ‘I was making a joke’

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5 hours ago

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March 24, 2025

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Credit: @TeslaFrenzy/X

Tesla stock rebounded over 20 percent in the past five trading days, and, coincidentally, the boost came just after Tim Walz said he gets a boost from watching the automaker’s shares fall.

Although Walz’s pushback against Tesla stock mostly comes from his evident distaste for CEO Elon Musk, who has joined President Donald Trump’s team as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), it seems he might not have realized the EV maker’s shares make up a portion of his state’s pension fund.

This was something Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary mentioned last week after Walz’s comments. However, now that Tesla shares are rising once again, Walz is backtracking by saying that his comment from last week was his attempt at humor.

Walz said:

“I have to be careful about being a smartass. I was making a joke. These people have no sense of humor.”

Tesla shares have rebounded nicely since a substantial drop so far this year.

Although the stock is still down about 28 percent this year, things are looking better for the company as it now shifts its focus to the release of several affordable models, the ramp of the new Model Y “Juniper,” the release of the Cybercab and Robotaxi platform in Texas and California, and other potential catalysts like the Optimus robot.

Tesla aiming to produce first “legion” of Optimus robots this 2025

Last week’s All-Hands meeting from Tesla was publicly broadcast on X and seemed to be the response many investors were hoping for as questions started to seep in regarding Musk’s commitment to the company.

While his attention seems to be on solving government spending and eliminating corruption, it is evident Musk is still paying attention to what is going on at Tesla.

Shares are up over 10 percent at 1:05 p.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $274.

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Elon Musk

Shark Tank’s O’Leary roasts Tim Walz over Tesla stock hate session

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3 days ago

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March 21, 2025

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Shark Tank personality and legendary investor Kevin O’Leary roasted former Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz over his comments regarding Tesla shares earlier this week.

Walz, a Minnesota Democrat, said that he recently added Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to his Apple Stocks app so he could watch shares fall as they have encountered plenty of resistance in 2025 so far. He said that anytime he needs a boost, he looks at Tesla shares, which are down 36 percent so far this year:

Walz, among many others, has been critical of Tesla and Elon Musk, especially as the CEO has helped eliminate excess government spending through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

However, Kevin O’Leary, a legendary investor, showed up on CNN after Walz’s comments to give him a bit of a reality check. O’Leary essentially called Walz out of touch for what he said about Tesla shares, especially considering Tesla made up a good portion of the Minnesota Retirement Fund.

As of June 2024, the pension fund held 1.6 million shares of Tesla stock worth over $319.6 million:

O’Leary continued to slam Walz for his comments:

“That poor guy didn’t check his portfolio and his own pension plan for the state. It’s beyond stupid what he did. What’s the matter with that guy? He doesn’t check the well-being of his own constituents.”

He even called Walz “a bozo” for what he said.

Of course, Walz’s comments are expected considering Musk’s support for the Trump Administration, as the Tesla CEO was a major contributor to the 45th President’s campaign for his second term.

However, it seems extremely out of touch that Walz made these comments without realizing the drop was potentially hurting his fund. While we don’t know if the fund has sold its entire Tesla holdings since June, as a newer, more recent report has not been released yet, it seems unlikely the automaker’s shares are not still making up some portion of the fund.

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Elon Musk

Tesla gets an upgrade on ‘upcoming material catalysts’

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5 days ago

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March 19, 2025

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tesla model y in white
(Source: Tesla)

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received an upgraded rating on its shares from Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, who recently took a trip to Austin to visit the company’s data centers and production lines ahead of several high-profile product launches set for this year.

It was a bold move, especially considering Tesla shares are under immense pressure currently, fending off negative news regarding the company’s sentiment and potentially lower-than-expected delivery figures due to the launch of a new version of its most popular vehicle, the Model Y.

However, the bulls on Wall Street are still considering Tesla to be a safe play, especially considering its robust presence in various industries, including automotive, energy, and AI/Robotics.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said in a note that, during a recent visit to Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the production line at Gigafactory Texas, it was clear there is a lot of potential and runway for Tesla in 2025:

“On 3/18, we visited Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the factory’s production lines ahead of the company’s introduction of its Robotaxi segment (targeted for June in Austin, followed by CA later in 2025). With Tesla’s shares now down ~45% YRD, we upgrade Tesla to Overweight (from Neutral) ahead of upcoming material catalysts. Our $425 12-month PT is unchanged. Our Thoughts: Attractive Entry Point Ahead of Material Catalysts.”

Sheppard went on to mention the catalysts, which he believes are the Robotaxi rollout in Austin in June, along with the continued rollout of Full Self-Driving in China, the eventual rollout of FSD in Europe, and the introduction of the affordable models in the first half of this year, and those were just on the automotive side.

There are several others, including Optimus, growth in the energy division, and in the longer term, the Semi.

In terms of potential weaknesses, Sheppard expects the likely removal of the EV tax credit and some of its growth to be offset by tariffs as the two big things that stand in the way of even more growth for the company.

Tesla is up over 5 percent on Wednesday, trading at $236.86.

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