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Tesla (TSLA) gets bullish forecast with conservative Cybertruck estimate

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Following a blockbuster quarter that saw Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) post $1.1 billion of GAAP net income and $1.6 billion of non-GAAP net income, Morgan Stanley has published a note outlining its forecasts for the EV maker. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas was bullish in his note, stating that the bigger story in Tesla’s strong quarter was the company’s EBITDA, as well as its battery “skunkworks” flywheel.

With Tesla posting its strongest quarter yet, Jonas opted to make some modifications to Morgan Stanley’s Tesla earnings model. These include a FY21 total delivery estimate of 835k vehicles, up from 832k units prior. For the rest of 2021, Morgan Stanley noted that Tesla would likely deliver 212k vehicles in the third quarter and 236k vehicles in Q4 2011. The investment bank’s 2025 delivery forecast remained at 3.1 million cars, while the 2030 forecast remained at 5.6 million. 

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1420250361290502144?s=20

Morgan Stanley also shared some forecasts for Tesla’s Cybertruck production, which is expected to enter its beta phase later this year. According to Jonas, Cybertruck volumes would likely start in 2022 and ramp to 15k total units during the year, to 283k units annually by 2030. Morgan Stanley also assumed an ATP of $65k in 2022. 

Needless to say, Morgan Stanley’s Cybertruck production estimates are incredibly conservative. An estimate of 15,000 units for 2022 translates to less than 300 Cybertrucks per week, after all, which seems very low. There seems to be a slim chance that Tesla would only be maintaining a production rate of 5,500 Cybertruck’s per week by 2030 as well, especially considering that Giga Texas is a facility built to produce the all-electric pickup truck. 

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It should be noted that this is not the first time Morgan Stanley has posted a bullish note on Tesla with an incredibly conservative production estimate. Back in 2019, analyst Adam Jonas published a note estimating the output of Gigafactory Shanghai, which was still under construction then. Jonas was quite bullish, stating that Tesla was on track to become China’s “leading luxury EV player.” He did, however, only expect Tesla to produce 35,000 to 40,000 Model 3 for 2020, ramping to 60,000 vehicles per year in 2021

Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai produced a total of 30,896 vehicles in June 2021 alone, comprised of 22,118 Model 3 and 8,778 Model Y.

Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla unveils juicy new detail on the Roadster and hints at new unveil timeline

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A red Tesla Roadster driving around a turn
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla unveiled a juicy new detail on the Roadster, its long-delayed supercar project, and additionally hinted at a new unveiling timeline, as it appears yet another month will pass without seeing the capabilities of the vehicle.

Vice President of Vehicle Engineering at Tesla, Lars Moravy, revealed on the Ride the Lightning podcast that the Roadster will be built at Gigafactory Texas, adding that “you’ll start to see a lot of things unfold in the next months.”

While we get a good detail on the plant of manufacture, we also get another letdown, as it appears the unveiling event will not take place in May, as CEO Elon Musk hinted during the Earnings Call.

The Roadster was first unveiled back in 2017, alongside the Semi, which entered production earlier this year. It was Tesla’s attempt at a true supercar; it would be rare, expensive, and lightning quick, among other incredible capabilities, like potentially hovering for a short period thanks to a collaboration project with SpaceX.

However, the vehicle was set to be delivered in 2020. Parts and supply chain issues due to the COVID-19 pandemic started these delays, and since then, Tesla, and specifically Musk, have wanted to push the capabilities of the Roadster to somewhere the human mind may not be able to currently comprehend.

Both Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen and Moravy have said many things about the Roadster over the past few years, hinting that the car truly could be worth the wait. However, the continuous delays we’ve seen have undoubtedly been discouraging.

With that being said, it’s not like Tesla has been doing nothing. Instead, the company has been focusing on revamping current models, phasing out others, and working on developing the cars of the future, specifically, the Cybercab, which entered production at Giga Texas in April.

Despite the Roadster’s delays, there is still a ton of anticipation for the vehicle to be released. It will have a steering wheel, as Musk said it will be “the best of the last of the human-driven cars.”

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NASA just gave SpaceX more crew missions because Boeing can’t certify

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NASA has filed a procurement notice announcing its intent to add six post-certification missions to SpaceX’s existing Commercial Crew Transportation Capability contract. The agency said it would order up to three of those missions immediately upon adding them to the contract, with the remaining three available as needed through the end of the International Space Station’s planned operations in 2030.

The reason for the expansion is straightforward. NASA cited recently shortened ISS mission durations, technical issues and schedule delays encountered by Boeing, the allocation of missions between Boeing and SpaceX, and the ongoing technical challenges of maintaining a reliable crew transportation capability as the driving factors behind the decision. Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner has still not been certified for crewed flights, and a cargo-only Starliner mission was not included on NASA’s most recent mission manifest. With Boeing effectively sidelined for the foreseeable future, SpaceX is the only American company capable of rotating crews to the station.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

The history behind this contract tells the fuller story of how SpaceX got here. NASA originally awarded SpaceX its Commercial Crew contract in 2014 for $2.6 billion. In 2022 NASA modified the contract to add five missions covering Crew-10 through Crew-14, worth $1.436 billion, bringing the total contract value at that point to $4.9 billion. The recent May 18 filing by NASA extends that runway further, with Crew-12 currently docked at the station and Crew-13 assigned and targeting a mid-September 2026 launch.

According to a report by SpaceNews, NASA stated in its filing: “It is necessary to award additional PCMs to SpaceX given the recently shortened ISS mission durations, technical issues and schedule delays encountered by Boeing, the allocation of missions between Boeing and SpaceX, NASA’s projections for when an alternative crew transportation system may become available, and the ongoing technical challenges of maintaining a reliable capability for crewed flights to ISS.”

No dollar value for the new six missions has been publicly confirmed yet, but based on the 2022 precedent of roughly $287 million per mission, the new block could represent close to $1.7 billion in additional contract value. With SpaceX simultaneously preparing Starship as NASA’s Artemis lunar lander, filing its S-1 for a June IPO, and now absorbing more ISS crew rotation work, the company’s role as the primary contractor for American human spaceflight is no longer a matter of circumstance. It is NASA policy.

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Energy

Zuckerberg’s Meta taps Musk’s Tesla for massive clean energy project

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Credit: Tesla

In a notable intersection of Big Tech powerhouses, Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, has partnered with Canadian energy infrastructure giant Enbridge on a significant renewable energy initiative that will rely on battery technology from Elon Musk’s Tesla.

The project, which was announced this week, marks another step in Meta’s aggressive push to power its expanding data center operations with clean energy, dispelling many of the complaints people have about them.

This new development is located near Cheyenne, Wyoming, and will feature a 365-megawatt (MW) solar farm paired with a 200 MW/1,600 megawatt-hour (MWh) battery energy storage system, also known as BESS. Tesla is providing the batteries for the project, valued at roughly $200 million.

The story was originally reported by Utility Dive.

This Wyoming project represents the first phase of Enbridge and Meta’s joint “Cowboy Project.” Once operational, it will deliver power to Meta’s regional data centers through Cheyenne Light, Fuel, and Power under Wyoming’s Large Power Contract Service tariff.

This tariff, originally developed in collaboration with Microsoft and Black Hills Energy, is designed specifically for large loads like data centers. It ensures that the renewable supply serves hyperscale customers without impacting retail electricity rates for other users.

The battery system will operate under a long-term tolling agreement, providing dispatchable capacity that enhances grid reliability. During periods of high demand, the utility can access the backup generation, addressing one of the key challenges of integrating large-scale renewables with the explosive growth of data center electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence.

This latest collaboration builds on prior joint efforts between Enbridge and Meta in Texas, including the 600 MW Clear Fork Solar, 152 MW Easter Wind, and 300 MW Cone Wind projects. Together with the Wyoming initiative, the companies have now partnered on roughly 1.6 gigawatts (GW) of combined solar, wind, and storage capacity.

The deal highlights the intensifying demand for reliable, low-carbon power from technology giants. Meta has committed to supporting its data center growth with renewable energy, joining peers like Microsoft and Google in seeking large-scale solutions. Enbridge’s Allen Capps described the project as “one of the larger utility-scale battery installations supporting U.S. data center operations and growth.”

The involvement of Tesla’s battery technology adds an intriguing layer, linking two of the world’s most prominent tech leaders—Zuckerberg and Musk—in the clean energy transition.

As data centers continue to drive unprecedented electricity load growth across the United States, projects like this one illustrate how hyperscalers are turning to strategic partnerships with traditional energy players and innovative storage solutions to meet both sustainability goals and reliability needs.

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