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Tesla (TSLA) gets bullish forecast with conservative Cybertruck estimate
Following a blockbuster quarter that saw Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) post $1.1 billion of GAAP net income and $1.6 billion of non-GAAP net income, Morgan Stanley has published a note outlining its forecasts for the EV maker. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas was bullish in his note, stating that the bigger story in Tesla’s strong quarter was the company’s EBITDA, as well as its battery “skunkworks” flywheel.
With Tesla posting its strongest quarter yet, Jonas opted to make some modifications to Morgan Stanley’s Tesla earnings model. These include a FY21 total delivery estimate of 835k vehicles, up from 832k units prior. For the rest of 2021, Morgan Stanley noted that Tesla would likely deliver 212k vehicles in the third quarter and 236k vehicles in Q4 2011. The investment bank’s 2025 delivery forecast remained at 3.1 million cars, while the 2030 forecast remained at 5.6 million.
Morgan Stanley also shared some forecasts for Tesla’s Cybertruck production, which is expected to enter its beta phase later this year. According to Jonas, Cybertruck volumes would likely start in 2022 and ramp to 15k total units during the year, to 283k units annually by 2030. Morgan Stanley also assumed an ATP of $65k in 2022.
Needless to say, Morgan Stanley’s Cybertruck production estimates are incredibly conservative. An estimate of 15,000 units for 2022 translates to less than 300 Cybertrucks per week, after all, which seems very low. There seems to be a slim chance that Tesla would only be maintaining a production rate of 5,500 Cybertruck’s per week by 2030 as well, especially considering that Giga Texas is a facility built to produce the all-electric pickup truck.
It should be noted that this is not the first time Morgan Stanley has posted a bullish note on Tesla with an incredibly conservative production estimate. Back in 2019, analyst Adam Jonas published a note estimating the output of Gigafactory Shanghai, which was still under construction then. Jonas was quite bullish, stating that Tesla was on track to become China’s “leading luxury EV player.” He did, however, only expect Tesla to produce 35,000 to 40,000 Model 3 for 2020, ramping to 60,000 vehicles per year in 2021.
Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai produced a total of 30,896 vehicles in June 2021 alone, comprised of 22,118 Model 3 and 8,778 Model Y.
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Tesla Model Y wins 2026 Drive Car of the Year award in Australia
The Model Y is already Australia’s best-selling EV in 2025 and the tenth best-selling vehicle overall.
The Tesla Model Y has been named 2026 Drive Car of the Year overall winner, taking the top honor after being judged as the vehicle that “moves the game forward the most for Australian new car buyers.”
The Model Y is already Australia’s best-selling EV in 2025 and the tenth best-selling vehicle overall, but the vehicle’s Juniper update strengthened its case with new ownership benefits and expanded software capability.
Drive’s overall award compares category winners and looks at which model most significantly advances the local new car market. In 2026, judges pointed to the Model Y’s five-year warranty and the availability of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) as a monthly subscription as key differentiators.
Priced from AU$58,900 before on-road costs, the all-electric crossover SUV offers a lot of value compared to similarly sized petrol and hybrid rivals. The ability to access Tesla’s Supercharger network across Australia also reduces friction for buyers moving to EV ownership.
Owners can add FSD (Supervised) for AU$149 per month. While it still requires driver oversight, the system expands the vehicle’s advanced driver-assistance capabilities and reflects Tesla’s software-first approach.
“The default choice for a reason. The Tesla Model Y makes the transition to electric both effortless and rewarding,” Drive wrote.
The 2025 Model Y facelift also sharpened the vehicle’s exterior, highlighted by a distinctive rear light bar that gives the crossover SUV a more modern road presence.
Drive described the Model Y as a benchmark for combining practicality, efficiency and technology at an accessible price point. With eligibility for federal Fringe Benefit Tax exemptions through novated leasing, its value proposition has improved for numerous buyers.
For 2026, the Model Y’s combination of range efficiency, charging access and software capability proved decisive. Ultimately, the award all but cements the Model Y’s position as one of the most influential vehicles in Australia’s evolving new-car market today.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates rapid Starship V3 timeline with next launch in sight
Musk shared the update in a brief post on X, writing, “Starship flies again next month.”
Elon Musk has confirmed that Starship will fly again next month, reiterating SpaceX’s aggressive timeline for the first launch of its Starship V3 rocket.
Musk shared the update in a brief post on X, writing, “Starship flies again next month.” The CEO’s post was accompanied by a video of Starship’s Super Heavy booster being successfully caught by a launch tower in Starbase, Texas.
The timeline is notable. In late January, Musk stated that Starship’s next flight, Flight 12, was expected in about six weeks. This placed the expected mission date sometime in March. That estimate aligned with SpaceX’s earlier statement that Starship’s 12th flight test “remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.”
If the vehicle does indeed fly next month, it would mark the debut of Starship V3, the upgraded platform expected to feature the rocket’s new Raptor V3 engines.
Raptor V3 is designed to deliver significantly higher thrust than earlier versions while reducing cost and weight. Starship V3 itself is expected to be optimized for manufacturability, a critical step if SpaceX intends to scale production toward frequent launches for Starlink, lunar missions, and eventually Mars.
Starship V3 is widely viewed as the version that transitions the program from experimental testing to true operational scaling. Previous iterations have completed multiple integrated flight tests, with mixed outcomes but steady progress. Expectations are high that SpaceX is now working on Starship’s refinement.
An aggressive launch schedule supports several priorities at once. It advances Starlink’s next-generation satellite deployment, supports NASA’s lunar ambitions under Artemis, and keeps SpaceX on track for its longer-term Moon and Mars objectives.
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Tesla Model Y L six-seater approved for Australia ahead of launch
The variant was listed as YL5NDB on the Australian government’s ROVER approval website.
Tesla’s six-seat, extended-wheelbase Model Y L has been approved for sale in Australia, as per newly published government documents.
The variant, listed as YL5NDB on the Australian government’s ROVER approval website, has confirmed that Tesla has received regulatory clearance to offer the extended Model Y to domestic customers.
Documents seen by Drive show that the Model Y L has been approved in Australia in a single dual-motor, all-wheel-drive configuration. While Tesla has not formally announced a launch date, vehicles are typically approved for Australian sale several months before arriving in showrooms.
The Model Y L is a longer version of the regular Model Y, designed to accommodate a six-seat layout with two seats in each row. It measures 177mm longer overall than the regular Model Y, at 4969mm, and features a 150mm longer wheelbase at 3040mm.
Australian approval documents list the Model Y L with the same nickel-manganese-cobalt battery pack used in the regular Model Y Long Range, which is expected to have a gross capacity of about 84kWh and a usable capacity of about 82kWh. Output is officially listed at 378kW in government filings, though real-world peak output may differ.
The Model Y L replaces the regular Model Y’s second-row bench with two captain’s chairs featuring heating, ventilation, and power adjustment. Heated third-row seats are also included.
Additional upgrades reported by Drive include an 18-speaker sound system, new front seats with single-piece backrests, and continuously variable shock absorbers. The only wheel option listed for the Australian model is 19-inch wheels.
In Europe, where the Model Y L has also received approval but has not yet launched, the variant is expected to claim up to 681km of WLTP range.