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Tesla (TSLA) gets bullish forecast with conservative Cybertruck estimate
Following a blockbuster quarter that saw Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) post $1.1 billion of GAAP net income and $1.6 billion of non-GAAP net income, Morgan Stanley has published a note outlining its forecasts for the EV maker. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas was bullish in his note, stating that the bigger story in Tesla’s strong quarter was the company’s EBITDA, as well as its battery “skunkworks” flywheel.
With Tesla posting its strongest quarter yet, Jonas opted to make some modifications to Morgan Stanley’s Tesla earnings model. These include a FY21 total delivery estimate of 835k vehicles, up from 832k units prior. For the rest of 2021, Morgan Stanley noted that Tesla would likely deliver 212k vehicles in the third quarter and 236k vehicles in Q4 2011. The investment bank’s 2025 delivery forecast remained at 3.1 million cars, while the 2030 forecast remained at 5.6 million.
Morgan Stanley also shared some forecasts for Tesla’s Cybertruck production, which is expected to enter its beta phase later this year. According to Jonas, Cybertruck volumes would likely start in 2022 and ramp to 15k total units during the year, to 283k units annually by 2030. Morgan Stanley also assumed an ATP of $65k in 2022.
Needless to say, Morgan Stanley’s Cybertruck production estimates are incredibly conservative. An estimate of 15,000 units for 2022 translates to less than 300 Cybertrucks per week, after all, which seems very low. There seems to be a slim chance that Tesla would only be maintaining a production rate of 5,500 Cybertruck’s per week by 2030 as well, especially considering that Giga Texas is a facility built to produce the all-electric pickup truck.
It should be noted that this is not the first time Morgan Stanley has posted a bullish note on Tesla with an incredibly conservative production estimate. Back in 2019, analyst Adam Jonas published a note estimating the output of Gigafactory Shanghai, which was still under construction then. Jonas was quite bullish, stating that Tesla was on track to become China’s “leading luxury EV player.” He did, however, only expect Tesla to produce 35,000 to 40,000 Model 3 for 2020, ramping to 60,000 vehicles per year in 2021.
Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai produced a total of 30,896 vehicles in June 2021 alone, comprised of 22,118 Model 3 and 8,778 Model Y.
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The Tesla Semi was spotted mounted with ground truth validation equipment as the company nears its looming launch. The Semi is Tesla’s Class 8 all-electric truck, and has been utilized in its earlier stages by many companies like PepsiCo. and Frito-Lay, who have been using it in a pilot program.
The Semi was spotted in Sunnyvale, California, and sports a typical ground truth validation unit that Tesla routinely uses on its vehicles. Ground truth validation is essentially the process of training supervised algorithms to ensure they can perform reliably. Tesla typically performs this on vehicles that are being released soon:
Spotted the new semi adorned with ground truthing equipment. Haven’t seen anyone post this so figured I’d share.
The future is autonomous!!@SawyerMerritt @wholemars pic.twitter.com/qkPDHPUQZ6
— Danny (@dannywinner1) June 21, 2026
The Semi being spotted with this type of validation rig is important because it means the company is working on solidifying a Full Self-Driving model for its commercial vehicle offering. This would be a massive development for not only Tesla but also the logistics industry as a whole.
There are strict regulations on driving hours for commercial truck drivers, and autonomy is a way to potentially combat these issues. FSD is already a widely effective way that owners of typical passenger vehicles take stress out of travel. Even launching a semi-autonomous platform for truck drivers to use to increase safety, reduce fatigue, and increase productivity would be a huge development.
Tesla Semi gets strange-but-understandable comparison from Jay Leno
The Semi has already proven to be an ideal solution for companies that use commercial logistics. It has increased efficiency and reduced operating costs for many companies that have been able to use it in pilot programs.
There are expected to be some bumps along the way. Tesla saw some challenges with FSD on the Cybertruck, as it had never had a vehicle with cameras at that height, so some of the features with FSD were not immediately available. Just a week ago, Tesla launched Actually Smart Summon (ASS) for Cybertruck, nearly three years after the vehicle was first delivered to customers.
President Donald Trump unveiled an upgraded Boeing 747-8 at Joint Base Andrews on June 19, 2026, describing the Qatar-gifted aircraft as an interim Air Force One equipped with advanced communications systems, including Starlink, Elon Musk’s SpaceX satellite internet service.
The plane, valued at around $400 million and modified for presidential use, serves as a bridge until the delayed VC-25B replacements arrive. Trump highlighted its luxury features and new technology during remarks to service members.
Trump stated:
“We have communication equipment up there that nobody’s ever seen before. It’s the highest level and, uh, including Starlink. My friend Elon is going to be very happy, but, uh, Starlink and we have, uh, four or five different sets of double and triple communications like people haven’t seen.”
He added:
“And it represents what can happen with hard work, innovation, and aggressive timelines because we did this quickly and yet there’s never been communication like is on this plane.”
🚨 President Trump confirmed today that the new Air Force One is equipped with Starlink:
“We have communication equipment up there that nobody’s ever seen before, it’s the highest level and including Starlink…my friend Elon is going to be very happy.” pic.twitter.com/IhkDmtr5hL
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 20, 2026
The aircraft features a redesigned red, white, and blue livery and has been outfitted with Starlink satellite connectivity alongside other secure systems.
Trump praised the plane’s uniqueness, calling it among the world’s most luxurious. The gift from Qatar and subsequent modifications have drawn attention, with the jet positioned as a solution for presidential travel. It is expected to support operations, including potential ceremonial roles such as Fourth of July flyovers.
The event marked the formal introduction of the converted jet, which will help maintain capabilities while the primary Air Force One fleet undergoes modernization. Defense observers note the inclusion of commercial satellite technology like Starlink as part of efforts to ensure resilient communications, crucial to keep the country running as the President is in the sky.
President Trump’s comments underscored appreciation for rapid upgrades and innovation in equipping the aircraft. The plane remains a U.S. government asset and is slated for eventual transfer related to presidential library purposes after its service.
Tesla just gave what is perhaps its biggest signal yet that the launch of the Cybercab, its autonomous ride-hailing-geared car, is imminent.
The Cybercab has been spotted outside of Gigafactory Texas in massive numbers over the past few days, with hundreds of units being stored on property just days after the vehicle received a Certificate of Conformity from the EPA.
Today, things were a bit different.
Cybercabs spotted on Giga Texas property today had an addition: a Cybercab decal on the side, reminiscent of the “Robotaxi” ones that were placed on Model Ys just as the company launched its ride-sharing platform about a year ago.
Giga Texas drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer noticed the change today:
Tesla Cybercabs are now getting “Cybercab” logos on the side of them!
Tesla did the same with Model Ys that were given “Robotaxi” logos: https://t.co/DanANtw1m7 pic.twitter.com/FqOhH0S9Ks
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 19, 2026
Tesla could be signaling that the Cybercab is preparing to enter the Robotaxi fleet in the coming weeks or months with this move. It seems more symbolic than anything; Tesla is ready to throw Cybercabs in the ride-hailing platform just as it did with Model Ys last year.
The addition of the Certificate of Conformity awarded to the Cybercab is another major factor working to Tesla’s advantage. The company now has permission from the EPA to allow the vehicle to operate on public roads and enter the chain of commerce. It’s officially street legal.
Tesla Cybercab specs revealed: range, curb weight, range ratings, and more
The big question that remains is whether Tesla will be able to operate the car without a safety monitor, especially considering it plans to put the car out there without a steering wheel or pedals. With the Cybercab only having a seating capacity of two, it is hard to believe Tesla will even consider putting a Safety Monitor in the car.
It did recently self-certify as Level 4 and has the ability to operate driverless vehicles in the State of Texas under a law that took effect on May 28. You can read more about that here:
Tesla’s Robotaxi dreams just took a massive step toward reality
We’d imagine Cybercabs will be on the roads as soon as July, but August will likely be a better estimate of when the car will be entered into the Cybercab fleet. It all depends at where Tesla is, as they’ve truly prioritized safety with the rollout of the Robotaxi platform.
Tesla Semi spotted with ground truth validation equipment as launch looms
President Trump touts new Air Force One with Musk technology
