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Tesla (TSLA) gets bullish forecast with conservative Cybertruck estimate

Credit: Eric Rihlmann/Instagram

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Following a blockbuster quarter that saw Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) post $1.1 billion of GAAP net income and $1.6 billion of non-GAAP net income, Morgan Stanley has published a note outlining its forecasts for the EV maker. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas was bullish in his note, stating that the bigger story in Tesla’s strong quarter was the company’s EBITDA, as well as its battery “skunkworks” flywheel.

With Tesla posting its strongest quarter yet, Jonas opted to make some modifications to Morgan Stanley’s Tesla earnings model. These include a FY21 total delivery estimate of 835k vehicles, up from 832k units prior. For the rest of 2021, Morgan Stanley noted that Tesla would likely deliver 212k vehicles in the third quarter and 236k vehicles in Q4 2011. The investment bank’s 2025 delivery forecast remained at 3.1 million cars, while the 2030 forecast remained at 5.6 million. 

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1420250361290502144?s=20

Morgan Stanley also shared some forecasts for Tesla’s Cybertruck production, which is expected to enter its beta phase later this year. According to Jonas, Cybertruck volumes would likely start in 2022 and ramp to 15k total units during the year, to 283k units annually by 2030. Morgan Stanley also assumed an ATP of $65k in 2022. 

Needless to say, Morgan Stanley’s Cybertruck production estimates are incredibly conservative. An estimate of 15,000 units for 2022 translates to less than 300 Cybertrucks per week, after all, which seems very low. There seems to be a slim chance that Tesla would only be maintaining a production rate of 5,500 Cybertruck’s per week by 2030 as well, especially considering that Giga Texas is a facility built to produce the all-electric pickup truck. 

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It should be noted that this is not the first time Morgan Stanley has posted a bullish note on Tesla with an incredibly conservative production estimate. Back in 2019, analyst Adam Jonas published a note estimating the output of Gigafactory Shanghai, which was still under construction then. Jonas was quite bullish, stating that Tesla was on track to become China’s “leading luxury EV player.” He did, however, only expect Tesla to produce 35,000 to 40,000 Model 3 for 2020, ramping to 60,000 vehicles per year in 2021

Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai produced a total of 30,896 vehicles in June 2021 alone, comprised of 22,118 Model 3 and 8,778 Model Y.

Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla just tipped its hand on a major Cybercab feature as production hits Plaid Mode

Tesla has delivered a clear signal that its Robotaxi ambitions are shifting into high gear. On April 17, longtime factory observer and drone pilot Joe Tegtmeyer captured drone footage and still images showing approximately 14 freshly built Cybercabs parked in the outbound lot—each one conspicuously lacking a steering wheel.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla just tipped its hand on a major Cybercab feature as it is putting production into Plaid Mode, but a clear indication of what the company plans to do with the vehicle is now apparent.

Tesla has delivered a clear signal that its Robotaxi ambitions are shifting into high gear, and it’s doing it with full autonomy in mind.

On April 17, longtime factory observer and drone pilot Joe Tegtmeyer captured drone footage and still images showing approximately 14 newly built Cybercabs parked in the outbound lot, each conspicuously lacking a steering wheel, and potentially pedals.

Tegtmeyer’s post highlighted the significance of this development: The images and video reveal sleek, two-seat Cybercabs in their final production form: no driver controls, no side mirrors, and the minimalist interior first unveiled at Tesla’s “We Robot” event in October 2024.

These units contrast with earlier test vehicles spotted at the factory’s crash-test area, which carried temporary steering wheels and pedals to meet current federal regulations during data-collection phases.

The outbound-lot vehicles appear complete, with production wheels, tire stickers, and the signature Cybercab styling ready for deployment.

This sighting represents a pivotal transition. Tesla designed the Cybercab from the ground up as a purpose-built robotaxi, engineered for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) operation. Removing manual controls eliminates cost, complexity, and weight while maximizing interior space and range.

The move also signals that Tesla has cleared initial validation hurdles and is now building vehicles to the exact specification intended for commercial robotaxi service.

Industry watchers note the timing aligns with Tesla’s broader rollout plans. Production of early Cybercabs began in late 2025 and early 2026, primarily for internal testing and regulatory compliance.

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards currently limit vehicles without steering wheels to 2,500 units per year without exemption, a cap that Tesla is navigating through ongoing filings.

Tesla Cybercab spotted next to Model Y shows size comparison

The appearance of steering-wheel-free units in the outbound lot suggests the company is preparing a small initial fleet—likely for Austin pilot operations or further validation—while pushing for regulatory relief to scale output.

The development comes as Tesla ramps its dedicated Cybercab line at Gigafactory Texas. If the Monday surge materializes as predicted, observers expect dozens more units to accumulate rapidly.

With unsupervised FSD advancing and regulatory conversations ongoing, these wheel-less Cybercabs parked under the Texas sun represent more than hardware—they embody Tesla’s bet that autonomous mobility is no longer a prototype dream but an imminent reality.

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Tesla preps new Model Y trim for India, a once-elusive market

Tesla’s journey into India began with significant hurdles. For years, the electric vehicle giant faced steep import tariffs ranging from 70 percent to 110 percent on fully built vehicles, which dramatically inflated prices and stalled entry plans.

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Tesla is preparing to bring its newest Model Y trim to India, a once-elusive market that was hesitant to allow any vehicles built outside the market into its automotive sector.

Now, it is preparing to allow China-built Model Y vehicles to come into the country, in an effort to expand sales and offer what is a widely-requested variant to Indian customers.

Tesla’s journey into India began with significant hurdles. For years, the electric vehicle giant faced steep import tariffs ranging from 70 percent to 110 percent on fully built vehicles, which dramatically inflated prices and stalled entry plans.

Elon Musk repeatedly criticized these duties as among the world’s highest, making premium EVs like the Model Y prohibitively expensive for most buyers in the price-sensitive market.

After prolonged negotiations and multiple delays, Tesla finally debuted in July 2025 with a quiet rollout focused on luxury segments. It opened showrooms in Mumbai and New Delhi, importing standard Model Y SUVs from its Shanghai Gigafactory.

Tesla China posts strong February wholesale growth at Gigafactory Shanghai

Yet the launch proved challenging: vehicles carried sticker prices near $70,000, leading to tepid demand. Bloomberg reported only about 600 orders in the first two months, while official data showed just 227 registrations for all of 2025—far below internal targets. By early 2026, the company offered discounts of up to ₹200,000 ($2,200) to clear unsold inventory.

Now, less than a year later, Tesla is demonstrating resilience and adaptability. According to a Bloomberg report on April 17, the company is preparing to launch the Model Y L—a six-seat, long-wheelbase variant with three-row seating—as early as next week.

This marks Tesla’s first new product introduction in India since its initial entry. Notably, the newest Model Y configuration, which debuted in China in 2025 and features extended space tailored for families, will once again be exported directly from Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory.

The move highlights a shift from early struggles to a more targeted approach, leveraging an existing platform to better suit Indian preferences for multi-generational, spacious SUVs without committing to immediate local production.

Tesla launches in India with Model Y, showing pricing will be biggest challenge

The Model Y L’s arrival underscores Tesla’s incremental strategy amid global EV headwinds and India’s unique challenges, including limited charging infrastructure and competition from local manufacturers.

While tariffs continue to keep pricing in the premium segment, the six-seater variant aims to broaden appeal beyond early luxury adopters by addressing practical family needs.

This evolution, from battling high barriers and disappointing initial sales to exporting its latest derivative model, signals cautious optimism.

Success with the Model Y L could strengthen Tesla’s foothold in one of the world’s most populous markets and potentially pave the way for deeper investments, such as localized manufacturing, should tariff relief or policy shifts materialize.

For now, the China-to-India supply chain represents a pragmatic bridge over the very obstacles that once made entry so difficult.

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Tesla’s golden era is no longer a tagline

Tesla “golden era” teaser video highlights the future of transportation and why car ownership itself may be the next thing to change.

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Tesla Cybercab Golden Era is Here (Credit: Tesla)
Tesla Cybercab Golden Era is Here (Credit: Tesla)

The golden age of autonomous ridesharing is arriving, and Tesla is making sure we can all picture a future that looks like the future. A recent teaser posted to X shows a Cybercab parked outside a home, and with a clear message that your everyday life may soon look like this when the driverless vehicles shows up at your door.

Tesla has begun the rollout of its Robotaxi service across US cities, and the production of its dedicated, fully-autonomous Cybercab vehicle. The first Cybercab rolled off the Giga Texas assembly line on February 17, 2026, with volume production now targeted for this month. Additionally, the Robotaxi service built around it is already running, without human drivers, in US cities.

Tesla Cybercab production ignites with 60 units spotted at Giga Texas

The Cybercab is built without a steering wheel, pedals, or side mirrors, designed from the ground up for unsupervised autonomous operation. Musk described the manufacturing approach as closer to consumer electronics than traditional car production, targeting a cycle time of one unit every ten seconds at full scale.

Drone footage from April 13, 2026 captured over 50 Cybercab units on the Giga Texas campus, with several clustered near the crash testing facility. Musk has noted that Tesla plans to sell the Cybercab to consumers for under $30,000, and owners will be able to add their vehicles to the Tesla robotaxi network when not in personal use, potentially generating income to offset the vehicle’s purchase cost. That model changes the math on vehicle ownership in a meaningful way, making a car something closer to a depreciating asset that can also earn by paying itself off and generate a profit.

During Tesla’s Q4 earnings call, the company confirmed plans to expand the Robotaxi program to seven new cities in the first half of 2026, including Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas. The service already runs without safety drivers in Austin, and public road testing of the Cybercab has expanded to five states, including California, Texas, New York, Illinois, and Massachusetts.

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