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Tesla Analyst Shares of Three Growth Hurdles: Gene Munster

Credit: Tesla Singapore/X

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Tesla analyst Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management named three headwinds that might affect the company’s return to growth. 

On Wednesday, October 2, 2024, Tesla released its Q3 2024 delivery and deployments report. Tesla produced approximately 469,796 vehicles and delivered 462,890 units in the third quarter. It also reported deploying 6.9 GWh of energy storage products. 

TSLA bull Gene Munster interpreted Tesla’s Q3 2024 delivery report as a return to growth for the company as deliveries were up by 7% year-over-year (you) in September. 

“I was expecting a slight miss, predicting deliveries would be up 4% y/y (452k) due to the company facing triple demand headwinds. This is positive, as it marks a return to growth after being down 5% in June and 9% in March,” wrote Munster in a recent note. 

Munster outlined three headwinds that may impact Tesla’s demand or sales. 

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The Macro

Munster refers to the macro viewpoint of Tesla as the auto industry grows to embrace electric vehicles (EVs) and the company’s market share lessens, particularly in the United States. Munster theorizes that Tesla’s US sales for September lagged compared to the rest of the world and “were up low single digits for the quarter.” 

On the upside, he believes Tesla lost a fraction of its EV market share in the third quarter, adding that the company’s rate of decline is probably less than most investors expect. 

“By 2030, I believe Tesla’s U.S. market share will be above 40%, compared to about 50% today, and well above most investors’ belief that market share will drop closer to 20%.”

EV Subsidies in Europe are Declining

Deepwater analyzed EV subsidies in Europe, looking at the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Norway, which account for nearly 20% of total EV sales. The firm saw a decline of 35% in EV subsidies. When it excluded the UK, which is no longer part of the EU, the decrease in EV subsidies was 24%. 

Elon Musk & Politics

Munster pointed out that Elon Musk’s political commentary has increased over the past few months, stating that it might present a headwind to sales. 

“Given that consumers are hyper-sensitive about politics and more than half of Tesla’s buyers lean politically left, this dynamic may have reduced deliveries by 5-10k during the quarter. This suggests U.S. numbers would have been 4% higher, and overall numbers just under 2% higher if not for the political dynamic,” he stated.

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What do you think of Munster’s analysis?

If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via X @Writer_0100110.

Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk debunks pay package and lip reader claims in double takedown

Musk’s quick debunks highlighted once more that X is an ideal platform for directly countering misinformation.

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Elon Musk recently took to X to debunk some misinformation about his 2025 CEO performance award, as well as some comments he made during Donald Trump’s banquet in honor of Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman. 

Musk’s quick debunks highlighted once more that X is an ideal platform for directly countering misinformation.

Musk’s pay package

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO performance award was created as a path for him to gain a 25% stake in Tesla. It would also make him a trillionaire, provided that he manages to meet all of the performance award’s aggressive targets. This has not stopped critics from running with the apparent narrative that Musk will be getting the $1 trillion with utmost certainty, however. 

This included the More Perfect Union account on X, which noted that “Elon Musk is set to make more than every U.S. elementary school teacher combined, according to the Washington Post.”

Musk responded to the pro-union amount’s post, highlighting that he has not earned any of his $2025 performance award so far. Musk also noted that those who believe he will be getting $1 trillion should invest in TSLA stock, as his compensation is tied to the company’s performance and growth. Investors who hold their TSLA until Musk achieves his full pay package would likely get notable returns.

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Lip reader fail

Musk also debunked claims from the Daily Mail, which claimed that he made an “explosive” remark at Trump’s banquet for Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Citing observations from lip reader Nicola Hickling, the Mail claimed that Musk asked Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, “What is your opinion, is he a terrorist?” The publication also posted a video of Musk allegedly making the risqué comment on X.

Musk proceeded to correct the publication, stating that the lip reader’s observations were fake. Instead of asking the Pfizer CEO if the Saudi Prince was a terrorist, Musk noted that he was asking the executive about cancer medicine. “False, I was asking about upcoming cancer drugs,” Musk wrote in a response on X. 

Musk’s comments resulted in numerous critical responses to the Mail’s video, with some X users joking that the lip reader who analyzed the clip should probably get a visual acuity test, or a better training course on lip reading at least.

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Tesla Diner to transition to full-service restaurant as Chef heads for new venture

“I am leaving the Tesla Diner project to focus on the opening of Mish, my long-desired Jewish deli. Projects like Mish and the Tesla Diner require a sharpness of focus and attention, and my focus and attention is now squarely on Mish.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Diner, the all-in-one Supercharging and dining experience located in Los Angeles, will transition to a full-service restaurant in January, staff said, as Chef Eric Greenspan said he would take on a new project.

A report from the Los Angeles Times says Greenspan confirmed through a text that he would leave the Diner and focus on the opening of his new Jewish deli, Mish.

Greenspan confirmed to the paper:

“I am leaving the Tesla Diner project to focus on the opening of Mish, my long-desired Jewish deli. Projects like Mish and the Tesla Diner require a sharpness of focus and attention, and my focus and attention is now squarely on Mish.”

Greenspan took on the job at the Tesla Diner and curated the menu back in March, focusing on locally-sourced ingredients and items that would play on various company products, like Cybertruck-shaped boxes that hold burgers.

Tesla Cybertruck leftovers are the main course at the Supercharger Diner

The Tesla Diner has operated as somewhat of a self-serve establishment, where Tesla owners can order directly from their vehicles through the center touchscreen. It was not exclusive to Tesla owners. Guests could also enter and order at a counter, and pick up their food, before sitting at a booth or table.

However, the report indicates Tesla is planning to push it toward a sit-down restaurant, full of waiters, waitresses, and servers, all of which will come to a table after you are seated, take your order, and serve your food.

It will be more of a full-featured restaurant experience moving forward, which is an interesting move from the company, but it also sounds as if it could be testing for an expansion.

We know that Tesla is already considering expanding locations, as it will be heading to new areas of the country. CEO Elon Musk has said that Tesla will be considering locations in Palo Alto near the company’s Engineering HQ, and in Austin, where its HQ and Gigafactory Texas are located.

Musk said that the Diner has been very successful in its first few months of operation.

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Tesla adds new surprising fee to Robotaxi program

“Additional cleaning was required for the vehicle after your trip. A fee has been added to your final cost to cover this service. Please contact us if you have any questions.”

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Credit: Grok

Tesla has added a new and somewhat surprising fee to the Robotaxi program. It’s only surprising because it was never there before.

Tesla shocked everyone when it launched its Robotaxi platform and offered riders the opportunity to tip, only to tell them they do not accept tips. It was one of the company’s attempts at being humorous as it rolled out its driverless platform to people in Austin.

As it has expanded to new cities and been opened to more people, as it was yesterday to iOS users, Tesla has had to tweak some of the minor details of the Robotaxi and ride-hailing platforms it operates.

First Look at Tesla’s Robotaxi App: features, design, and more

With more riders, more vehicles, and more operational jurisdictions, the company has to adjust as things become busier.

Now, it is adjusting the platform by adding “Cleaning Fees” to the Robotaxi platform, but it seems it is only charged if the vehicle requires some additional attention after your ride.

The app will communicate with the rider with the following message (via Not a Tesla App):

“Additional cleaning was required for the vehicle after your trip. A fee has been added to your final cost to cover this service. Please contact us if you have any questions.”

The cost of the cleaning will likely depend on how severe the mess is. If you spill a soda, it will likely cost less than if you lose your lunch in the back of the car because you had a few too many drinks.

This is an expected change, and it seems to be one that is needed, especially considering Tesla is operating a small-scale ride-hailing service at the current time. As it expands to more states and cities and eventually is available everywhere, there will be more situations that will arise.

The messes in vehicles are not a new situation, especially in a rideshare setting. It will be interesting to see if Tesla will enable other fees, like ones for riders who request a ride and do not show up for it.

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