Tesla analyst Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management named three headwinds that might affect the company’s return to growth.
On Wednesday, October 2, 2024, Tesla released its Q3 2024 delivery and deployments report. Tesla produced approximately 469,796 vehicles and delivered 462,890 units in the third quarter. It also reported deploying 6.9 GWh of energy storage products.
TSLA bull Gene Munster interpreted Tesla’s Q3 2024 delivery report as a return to growth for the company as deliveries were up by 7% year-over-year (you) in September.
“I was expecting a slight miss, predicting deliveries would be up 4% y/y (452k) due to the company facing triple demand headwinds. This is positive, as it marks a return to growth after being down 5% in June and 9% in March,” wrote Munster in a recent note.
Munster outlined three headwinds that may impact Tesla’s demand or sales.
The Macro
Munster refers to the macro viewpoint of Tesla as the auto industry grows to embrace electric vehicles (EVs) and the company’s market share lessens, particularly in the United States. Munster theorizes that Tesla’s US sales for September lagged compared to the rest of the world and “were up low single digits for the quarter.”
On the upside, he believes Tesla lost a fraction of its EV market share in the third quarter, adding that the company’s rate of decline is probably less than most investors expect.
“By 2030, I believe Tesla’s U.S. market share will be above 40%, compared to about 50% today, and well above most investors’ belief that market share will drop closer to 20%.”
EV Subsidies in Europe are Declining
Deepwater analyzed EV subsidies in Europe, looking at the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Norway, which account for nearly 20% of total EV sales. The firm saw a decline of 35% in EV subsidies. When it excluded the UK, which is no longer part of the EU, the decrease in EV subsidies was 24%.
Elon Musk & Politics
Munster pointed out that Elon Musk’s political commentary has increased over the past few months, stating that it might present a headwind to sales.
“Given that consumers are hyper-sensitive about politics and more than half of Tesla’s buyers lean politically left, this dynamic may have reduced deliveries by 5-10k during the quarter. This suggests U.S. numbers would have been 4% higher, and overall numbers just under 2% higher if not for the political dynamic,” he stated.
What do you think of Munster’s analysis?
If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via X @Writer_0100110.
News
Tesla’s latest Robotaxi job posting takes the whole program a step forward
On Tuesday, Tesla posted a new job for a Senior Insurance Claims Specialist, Robotaxi, the first of its kind.
Tesla’s latest Robotaxi job posting goes beyond what has been posted in the past and truly takes the entire program a step forward.
Tesla has been hiring some employees for Robotaxi, but a vast majority of the job postings have been related to Vehicle Operator positions, meaning the people who are Safety Monitors or Validation Vehicle Drivers.
Some job postings have hinted at Robotaxi expanding to new cities.
However, on Tuesday, Tesla posted a new job for a Senior Insurance Claims Specialist, Robotaxi, the first of its kind.
The job description says the employee will “oversee the company’s corporate insurance, risk management and surety programs across all business components.” Additionally, it says the position plays “a critical role in managing incident reporting a claim processes for Tesla Robotaxi and ride-hailing operations.”
🚨Buckle up — shit’s about to get real.
Tesla hires Senior Robotaxi Insurance Claims Specialist. pic.twitter.com/RAdjJCYCeS
— Tesla Yoda (@teslayoda) November 5, 2025
Essentially, Tesla could be looking to prepare for when it eventually will have to take liability for accidents completely. This would be when the company launches fully autonomous vehicles, meaning Cybercab and the Robotaxi program, specifically. It would also include passenger vehicles with Full Self-Driving.
Tesla is currently operating a Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas, as well as a ride-hailing platform in the California Bay Area.
These programs are the company’s first foray into ride-hailing, with or without someone in the driver’s seat of the vehicle. In Austin, Tesla operates most of its rides without a Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat. Only freeway routes require the Monitor to be directly behind the wheel.
In California, someone sits in the driver’s seat at all times.
The job posting seems to indicate that things could be relatively close in terms of solving self-driving, especially if Tesla is looking to fill a role that would handle autonomous insurance claims.
Of course, it will take Tesla to solve autonomy, and with the company aiming to start Cybercab production (without a steering wheel) in Q2 2025, it surely feels like it is on the brink of something great.
News
Tesla snags Lamborghini alum to help in newly entered market
Tesla has snagged a Lamborghini alum to help with its entrance into a new market, which has proven to be an intricate situation for the automaker.
A report from Bloomberg states that Tesla has hired Sharad Agarwal, who was formerly employed by the Italian luxury carmaker, to run its operations in India. With Lamborghini, he was employed to handle operations in India.
Tesla launches in India with Model Y, showing pricing will be biggest challenge
Tesla has gone through quite a few different team members with its launch in India, starting with a few hirings a few years ago, well before the company actually committed to selling cars in the country.
The move helps Tesla streamline its executive decision-making process, as it previously had employees in India reach out to managers based in China, among other areas. Agarwal will be stationed in India and will handle the company’s operations.
Tesla’s mentality behind the strategy is to have local leadership, something that seems to cater to the market specifically.
Tesla had previously put Isabel Fan, the manager of Southeast Asia for the company, in the position. However, Tesla seemed to want someone who was more permanent and would be dedicated to India exclusively.
India has the largest population on Earth and has a massive automotive market for that reason. Tesla stands to gain a lot from a strong performance in India, and its clean energy vehicles could help with pollution of all kinds in the region.
Tesla’s path to entrance in the Indian market was a long one, as the company tried for nearly ten years to get into the elusive region. Back in 2016, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla “would love to be in India,” teasing the Model 3.
By 2017, Tesla had met with officials from the country, but tried to get import duties down to nothing from 100 percent.
Indian authorities denied Tesla’s request.
For years, Musk met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to try and iron out a deal of some sort. Nothing truly came to fruition, at least until last year, when real movement started.
By 2024, India had introduced a strategy to reduce import duties for some companies, which was enough for Tesla to make a move. It is now 2025, and the company still has not committed to building a factory in the region. However, it is not completely out of the question.
News
Tesla Sentry Mode helps lock up drive-by shooting suspect in Seattle
“A nearby Tesla actually captured the video that showed a man crouched behind a vehicle firing gunshots. A lot of vehicles record, and officers know that Teslas, especially, record, so we use that video all the time in these instances.”
Police in Seattle, Washington, are crediting Tesla’s well-known Sentry Mode for helping find a suspect in a drive-by shooting case.
A 21-year-old was arrested for an alleged drive-by shooting in the Pioneer Square neighborhood of Seattle this past Sunday, and the leads on the case seemed to be slim.
However, a Tesla parked nearby was able to record the shooting, as well as the car that the suspect hopped in after the crime occurred. It helped police identify the person they were looking for.
Seattle Police Department Detective Brian Pritchard said to MyNorthwest that the Tesla was a critical part of finding the suspect and placing him under arrest:
“A nearby Tesla actually captured the video that showed a man crouched behind a vehicle firing gunshots. A lot of vehicles record, and officers know that Teslas, especially, record, so we use that video all the time in these instances.”
The Tesla footage helped the Police put the suspect into handcuffs about an hour after the crime was committed. They are currently charged with drive-by shooting and unlawful possession of a firearm.
Tesla Sentry Mode is a security feature the vehicle utilizes to help solve crimes like vandalism, but it is also a cool feature that has caught things like accidents and other incidents on camera.
Many people still do not know about it, including the many vandals who keyed or broke the windows of Teslas earlier this year, as people damaged others’ cars in an act of retaliation against CEO Elon Musk when he became involved in politics.
This is far from the first time Sentry Mode has helped Police Departments solve crimes. Last September, we reported on Oakland’s Police Department in California using Teslas near crime scenes to help solve cases.
Tesla Sentry Mode is Oakland PD’s secret weapon against rising crime
Sergeant Ben Therriault, president of the Richmond Police Officers Association, said, “We have all these mobile video devices floating around,” in reference to the Teslas that sit and capture nearly everything that surrounds them.
Sentry Mode has helped officers arrest a variety of suspects, including several people who were allegedly involved in the murder of a 27-year-old woman in Northern California.
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