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Tesla Analyst Shares of Three Growth Hurdles: Gene Munster

Credit: Tesla Singapore/X

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Tesla analyst Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management named three headwinds that might affect the company’s return to growth. 

On Wednesday, October 2, 2024, Tesla released its Q3 2024 delivery and deployments report. Tesla produced approximately 469,796 vehicles and delivered 462,890 units in the third quarter. It also reported deploying 6.9 GWh of energy storage products. 

TSLA bull Gene Munster interpreted Tesla’s Q3 2024 delivery report as a return to growth for the company as deliveries were up by 7% year-over-year (you) in September. 

“I was expecting a slight miss, predicting deliveries would be up 4% y/y (452k) due to the company facing triple demand headwinds. This is positive, as it marks a return to growth after being down 5% in June and 9% in March,” wrote Munster in a recent note. 

Munster outlined three headwinds that may impact Tesla’s demand or sales. 

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The Macro

Munster refers to the macro viewpoint of Tesla as the auto industry grows to embrace electric vehicles (EVs) and the company’s market share lessens, particularly in the United States. Munster theorizes that Tesla’s US sales for September lagged compared to the rest of the world and “were up low single digits for the quarter.” 

On the upside, he believes Tesla lost a fraction of its EV market share in the third quarter, adding that the company’s rate of decline is probably less than most investors expect. 

“By 2030, I believe Tesla’s U.S. market share will be above 40%, compared to about 50% today, and well above most investors’ belief that market share will drop closer to 20%.”

EV Subsidies in Europe are Declining

Deepwater analyzed EV subsidies in Europe, looking at the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Norway, which account for nearly 20% of total EV sales. The firm saw a decline of 35% in EV subsidies. When it excluded the UK, which is no longer part of the EU, the decrease in EV subsidies was 24%. 

Elon Musk & Politics

Munster pointed out that Elon Musk’s political commentary has increased over the past few months, stating that it might present a headwind to sales. 

“Given that consumers are hyper-sensitive about politics and more than half of Tesla’s buyers lean politically left, this dynamic may have reduced deliveries by 5-10k during the quarter. This suggests U.S. numbers would have been 4% higher, and overall numbers just under 2% higher if not for the political dynamic,” he stated.

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What do you think of Munster’s analysis?

If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via X @Writer_0100110.

Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Tesla Giga Berlin makes big move amid strong sales and demand

“We currently have very good sales figures and have therefore revised our production plans for the third and fourth quarters upwards.”

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla is making a big move at its factory in Germany, known as Giga Berlin, as managers at the plant have indicated the company plans to increase its production rate for the remainder of the year.

Giga Berlin is responsible for manufacturing Model Y vehicles for several markets worldwide, including those outside of Europe. It was opened in March 2022, and it recently built its 500,000th Model Y in March and its 100,000th new Model Y just three weeks ago.

Due to some encouraging sales figures in the markets it provides vehicles for, Tesla said it is planning to increase production at the factory for the remainder of the year.

Andrè Thierig, plant manager at Giga Berlin, said to German news outlet DPA on Sunday that market data has encouraged a move to be made regarding the production at the factory:

“We currently have very good sales figures and have therefore revised our production plans for the third and fourth quarters upwards.”

It is interesting to see this kind of narrative from Thierig, especially as data has shown Tesla has struggled in various markets, including Germany, this year.

Sales drops have been reported, but other markets are holding strong, especially those in Northern Europe, such as Norway, where the Model Y saw a nearly 39 percent increase in sales in August compared to the same month the previous year.

Tesla Model Y leads sales rush in Norway in August 2025

Gigafactory Berlin supplies vehicles for other markets, such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, which are strategically important to avoid tariffs. It also builds cars for the Middle East.

Thierig reiterated this point during the interview with DPA:

“We supply well over 30 markets and definitely see a positive trend there.”

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Elon Musk

Tesla analyst says Musk stock buy should send this signal to investors

“With Musk’s (Tesla stock) purchase, combined with the upward momentum for delivery expectations and robotaxi rollout, we are becoming more bullish.”

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk purchased roughly $1 billion in Tesla shares on Friday, and analysts are now breaking down the move as the stock is headed upward.

One of them is William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer, who said in a new note to investors on Monday that Musk’s move should send a signal of confidence to stock buyers, especially considering the company’s numerous catalysts that currently exist.

Elon Musk just bought $1 billion in Tesla stock, his biggest purchase ever

Dorsheimer said in the note:

“With Musk’s (Tesla stock) purchase, combined with the upward momentum for delivery expectations and robotaxi rollout, we are becoming more bullish. This purchase is Musk’s first buy since 2020. To us, this sends a strong signal of confidence in the most important part of Tesla’s future business, robotaxi.”

Musk putting an additional $1 billion back into the company in the form of more stock ownership is obviously a huge vote of confidence.

He knows more than anyone about the progress Tesla has made and is making on the Robotaxi platform, as well as the company’s ongoing efforts to solve vehicle autonomy. If he’s buying stock, it is more than likely a good sign.

Tesla has continued to expand its Robotaxi platform in a number of ways. The project has gotten bigger in terms of service area, vehicle fleet, and testing population. Tesla has also recently received a permit to test in Nevada, unlocking the potential to expand into a brand-new state for the company.

In the note, Dorsheimer also touched on Musk’s recent pay package, revealing that William Blair recently met with Tesla’s Board of Directors, who gave the firm some more color on the situation:

“We recently participated in a meeting with Tesla’s board of directors to discuss the details of Musk’s performance package. The board is confident of its position in the Delaware case and anticipates a verdict by end of year. It does not expect a similar situation to occur under new Texas jurisdiction. Musk has the board’s full support, and we expect he’ll get more than enough shareholder support for this to pass with flying colors.”

Tesla stock is up over 6 percent so far today, trading at $421.50 at the time of publication.

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Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas dubs Tesla FSD a “game changer” after marathon drive

Jonas reported that FSD handled more than 99% of the miles.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Morgan Stanley’s analyst Adam Jonas shared a notable endorsement of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software after completing a 1,400-mile round trip from New York to Michigan in his Model Y. 

Jonas reported that FSD handled more than 99% of the miles, calling the system “a game changer” for long-distance driving.

Hands-free experience

Jonas drove his 2021 Tesla Model Y equipped with Hardware 3 and FSD Supervised v12.6.4, and he used the system nearly the entire trip. “Having your hands off the wheel and feet off the pedals for nearly 12 hours of driving is a real game changer that is hard to appreciate without experiencing it for yourself,” he noted.

He explained that outside of two heavy downpours, one on the Pennsylvania Turnpike and another in suburban Detroit, plus some light maneuvering in fast food parking lots, FSD handled the drive without any human intervention. “FSD made no mistakes or close calls that I recall. The system handles highways very safely and confidently. I cannot imagine buying another EV without FSD.”

Broader implications

Jonas added that he has used FSD consistently over the past 18 months, and the $8,000 he paid for the feature feels like a bargain considering the value. He also praised Tesla’s Supercharging network, which supported his trip without issue.

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Jonas has been one of Wall Street’s most closely followed voices on Tesla, and his comments add weight to the ongoing debate about the role of autonomy in the company’s future. His current price target for Tesla stock stands at $410. During Morgan Stanley’s 13th Annual Laguna Conference, he echoed similar experiences with Tesla’s software, emphasizing that FSD “probably drove well over 99% of the miles” on his recent trips.

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