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Tesla’s $10 ‘bear case’ from Morgan Stanley highlights the noise surrounding TSLA

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Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) looked alarming right before the markets opened on Tuesday amidst news that Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas had lowered the electric car maker’s “bear case outcome” to just $10 per share, a steep drop from his initial worst-case scenario estimate of $97 per share. The analyst’s findings dealt a blow to Tesla stock during pre-market trading, pushing shares down by over 3% at one point.

The Morgan Stanley analyst’s worst-case estimate was driven in part by concerns about Tesla’s business in China, which would likely be adversely affected by the ongoing trade war between the country and the United States. According to Jonas, Tesla could generate about $9 billion in revenues in China between 2020 and 2024, but if Beijing targets the company with reprisal tariffs and restrictions, that figure could be halved, resulting in more than $16 billion of the electric car maker’s market value getting wiped out.

“Our revised case assumes Tesla misses our current Chinese volume forecast by roughly half, to account for the highly volatile trade situation in the region, particularly around areas of technology, which we believe run a high and increasing risk of government/regulatory attention. We believe as Tesla’s share price declines, the likelihood of the company potentially seeking alternatives from strategic/industrial/financial partners rises,” Jonas noted.

The analyst’s radical $10 estimate for Tesla unsurprisingly attracted a lot of attention, and it did not take long before news of Morgan Stanley’s updated views made the rounds online. What was not reported as much was that Adam Jonas kept his $230 price target on TSLA stock, as well as his equal-weight rating for the company under the firm’s best-case scenario. Also left out in a number of reports was Morgan Stanley’s best-case price target of $391, which is actually pretty optimistic considering the recent movements of Tesla stock.

Other personalities in the financial world eventually gave their take on Jonas’ worst-case scenario for Tesla. Jim Cramer, who has traded barbs with Elon Musk in the past, described the $10 estimate as “insane” and a simple gimmick. “Setting a price target of $10 on a $200 stock really is insane. How about $8? How about $12? Ten basically says, ‘I want to get talked about. Let’s talk about me,’” Cramer said, adding that “if he had done $47 would we have talked about him? No, but 10. Ten is right in your face. I question this piece of research.”

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Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, who still maintains a positive stance on the company, also questioned the Morgan Stanley analyst’s findings. “Also interesting to note, Jonas cut his worst-case price by more than 90% but left his price target unchanged at $230. So, I guess he is suggesting that the probability of the bear case has dropped significantly, and/ or the probability of the bull case has increased,” Wood wrote on Twitter.

The Tesla Model 3 production line. (Photo: Tesla)

Considering the pervading negativity surrounding Tesla’s narrative today, it is unsurprising to see aspects of Morgan Stanley’s recent note getting misinterpreted. A look at social media platforms such as Twitter, for example, would reveal some Tesla critics stating that the $10 worst-case estimate was Morgan Stanley’s new price target for TSLA stock. This is untrue, but these instances all but highlight how easy it is for misconceptions about the electric car maker could spread.

This pervading negativity is seen in the mainstream coverage of the company. On Monday, Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities cut his price target and penned a scathing note to Tesla, even describing Elon Musk’s initiatives such as Full Self-Driving and the Robotaxi network as “sci-fi projects.” Ives’ statements on Monday garnered widespread attention, significantly more than his comments on Tuesday, when he explained that he does not think Tesla will eventually file for bankruptcy. Ives also noted on Tuesday that Tesla could return to profitability in the future, provided that demand is sustained and costs are cut.

At this point, it appears that the time is right for Tesla to adopt a more assertive PR strategy that is ready to debunk misinformation and clarify misconceptions at a moment’s notice. By doing so, Tesla can lay out its case clearly, providing explanations as necessary and leaving little to speculation. This would require constant vigilance on the part of the electric car maker, but it would help, at least by straightening out the facts of a story. These initiatives, coupled with an aggressive information campaign that dispels misconceptions about the company and its vehicles, could ultimately allow Tesla to change the course of its narrative for the better.

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading -0.29% at $204.76 per share.

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Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets tip of the hat from major Wall Street firm on self-driving prowess

“Tesla is at the forefront of autonomous driving, supported by a camera-only approach that is technically harder but much cheaper than the multi-sensor systems widely used in the industry. This strategy should allow Tesla to scale more profitably compared to Robotaxi competitors, helped by a growing data engine from its existing fleet,” BoA wrote.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla received a tip of the hat from major Wall Street firm Bank of America on Wednesday, as it reinitiated coverage on Tesla shares with a bullish stance that comes with a ‘Buy’ rating and a $460 price target.

In a new note that marks a sharp reversal from its neutral position earlier in 2025, the bank declared Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology the “leading consumer autonomy solution.”

Analysts highlighted Tesla’s camera-only architecture, known as Tesla Vision, as a strategic masterstroke. While technically more challenging than the multi-sensor setups favored by rivals, the vision-based approach is dramatically cheaper to produce and maintain.

This cost edge, combined with Tesla’s rapidly expanding real-world data engine, positions the company to scale robotaxis far more profitably than competitors, BofA argues in the new note:

“Tesla is at the forefront of autonomous driving, supported by a camera-only approach that is technically harder but much cheaper than the multi-sensor systems widely used in the industry. This strategy should allow Tesla to scale more profitably compared to Robotaxi competitors, helped by a growing data engine from its existing fleet.”

The bank now attributes roughly 52% of Tesla’s total valuation to its Robotaxi ambitions. It also flagged meaningful upside from the Optimus humanoid robot program and the fast-growing energy storage business, suggesting the auto segment’s recent headwinds, including expired incentives, are being eclipsed by these higher-margin opportunities.

Tesla’s own data underscores exactly why Wall Street is waking up to FSD’s potential. According to Tesla’s official safety reporting page, the FSD Supervised fleet has now surpassed 8.4 billion cumulative miles driven.

Tesla FSD (Supervised) fleet passes 8.4 billion cumulative miles

That total ballooned from just 6 million miles in 2021 to 80 million in 2022, 670 million in 2023, 2.25 billion in 2024, and a staggering 4.25 billion in 2025 alone. In the first 50 days of 2026, owners added another 1 billion miles — averaging more than 20 million miles per day.

This avalanche of real-world, camera-captured footage, much of it on complex city streets, gives Tesla an unmatched training dataset. Every mile feeds its neural networks, accelerating improvement cycles that lidar-dependent rivals simply cannot match at scale.

Tesla owners themselves will tell you the suite gets better with every release, bringing new features and improvements to its self-driving project.

The $460 target implies roughly 15 percent upside from recent trading levels around $400. While regulatory and safety hurdles remain, BofA’s endorsement signals growing institutional conviction that Tesla’s data advantage is not hype; it’s a tangible moat already delivering billions of miles of proof.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX IPO could push Elon Musk’s net worth past $1 trillion: Polymarket

The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.

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Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Recent projections have outlined how a potential $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO could generate historic returns for early investors. The projections suggest the offering would not only become the largest IPO in history but could also result in unprecedented windfalls for some of the company’s key investors.

The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.

As noted in a Polymarket Money analysis, Elon Musk invested $100 million into SpaceX in 2002 and currently owns approximately 42% of the company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation following SpaceX’s potential $1.75 trillion IPO, that stake would be worth roughly $735 billion.

Such a figure would dramatically expand Musk’s net worth. When combined with his holdings in Tesla Inc. and other ventures, a public debut at that level could position him as the world’s first trillionaire, depending on market conditions at the time of listing.

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The Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently lists Elon Musk with a net worth of $666 billion, though a notable portion of this is tied to his TSLA stock. Tesla currently holds a market cap of $1.51 trillion, and Elon Musk’s currently holds about 13% to 15% of the company’s outstanding common stock.

Founders Fund, co-founded by Peter Thiel, invested $20 million in SpaceX in 2008. Polymarket Money estimates the firm owns between 1.5% and 3% of the private space company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, that range would translate to approximately $26.25 billion to $52.5 billion in value.

That return would represent one of the most significant venture capital outcomes in modern Silicon Valley history, with a growth of 131,150% to 262,400%.

Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, invested $900 million into SpaceX in 2015 and is estimated to hold between 6% and 7% of the private space firm. At the projected IPO valuation, that stake could be worth between $105 billion and $122.5 billion. That’s a growth of 11,566% to 14,455%.

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Other major backers highlighted in the post include Fidelity Investments, Baillie Gifford, Valor Equity Partners, Bank of America, and Andreessen Horowitz, each potentially sitting on multibillion-dollar gains.

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Elon Musk hints Tesla investors will be rewarded heavily

“Hold onto your Tesla stock. It’s going to be worth a lot, I think. That’s my bet,” Musk said.

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Credit: Grok

Elon Musk recently hinted that he believes Tesla investors will be rewarded heavily if they continue to hold onto their shares, and he reiterated that in a new interview that the company released on its social accounts this week.

Musk is one of the most successful CEOs in the modern era and has mammothed competitors on the Forbes Net Worth List over the past year as his holdings in his various companies have continued to swell.

Tesla investors, especially those who have been holding shares for several years, have also felt substantial gains in their portfolios. Over the past five years, the stock is up over 78 percent. Since February 2019, nearly seven years ago to the day, the stock is up over 1,800 percent.

Musk said in the interview:

“Hold onto your Tesla stock. It’s going to be worth a lot, I think. That’s my bet.”

It’s no secret Musk has been extremely bullish on his own companies, but Tesla in particular, because it is publicly traded.

However, the company has so many amazing projects that have an opportunity to revolutionize their respective industries. There is certainly a path to major growth on Wall Street for Tesla through its various future projects, including Optimus, Cybercab, Semi, and Unsupervised FSD.

  • Optimus (Tesla’s humanoid robot): Musk has discussed its potential for tasks like childcare, walking dogs, or assisting elderly parents, positioning it as a massive long-term driver of company value.
  • Cybercab (Tesla’s robotaxi/autonomous ride-hailing vehicle): a fully autonomous vehicle geared specifically for Tesla’s ride-sharing ambitions.
  • Semi (Tesla’s electric truck, with mentions of expansion, like in Europe): brings Tesla into the commercial logistics sector.
  • Unsupervised FSD (Full Self-Driving software achieving full autonomy without human supervision): turns every Tesla owner’s vehicle into a fully-autonomous vehicle upon release

These projects specifically are some of the highest-growth pillars Tesla has ever attempted to develop, especially in Musk’s eyes, as he has said Optimus will be the best-selling product of all-time.

Many analysts agree, but the bullish ones, like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, are perhaps the one who believes Tesla has incredible potential on Wall Street, predicting a $2,600 price target for 2030, but this is not even including Optimus.

She told Bloomberg last March that she believes that the project will present a potential additive if Tesla can scale faster than anticipated.

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