Investor's Corner
Tesla shares rise amid positive analyst outlook after Gigafactory tour, Chinese rival’s underwhelming IPO
Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) are rising on Wednesday’s intraday, trading as high as $291.31 per share amid encouraging updates from analysts after a tour of Gigafactory 1, as well as seemingly improved investor sentiments over the company’s updates in management.
Tesla shares took a big blow last Friday amidst reports of former Chief Accounting Officer David H. Morton’s departure from the company after being on the job for just two months. Chief People Officer Gabrielle Toledano also announced that she would not be returning to the company after her ongoing leave. On top of this, CEO Elon Musk courted controversy once more after he seemingly smoked cannabis during a podcast with comedian Joe Rogan.
Amidst the noise from the latest executive departures and Elon Musk’s most recent controversy, Tesla stock saw some recovery on Monday. Baird analyst Ben Kallo, for one, gave the company a “Buy” rating over what he believed were the company’s improving fundamentals this Q3. Kallo also noted that last Friday’s sharp decline in Tesla stock’s price seemed to be a “mispricing.”
Tuesday saw the release of a note from Worm Capital analysts Eric Markowitz and Dan Crowley, who recently went on a tour of Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada. The analysts’ note included several compelling updates from Martin Viecha, head of Tesla’s investor relations, who answered questions about the company’s battery tech, its software, and its upcoming vehicles. Viecha, for one, noted that Tesla is on track to achieve a battery cell cost of $100 per kWh by the end of the year, provided that commodity prices remain stable. The Tesla head of investor relations also stated that Tesla would be receiving machines from Grohmann Engineering which would aid the company in producing batteries more quickly and cost-effectively. Updates for the Tesla Semi and the $35,000 base Model 3 were also given.
While the encouraging updates from the Worm Capital analysts were noteworthy, investor sentiments appear to be improving for Tesla as well, particularly after it was announced that longtime problem-solver Jerome Guillen would now be serving as the company’s Head of Automotive, reporting directly to Elon Musk. Guillen is among the most hands-on of Tesla’s longtime executives, known for personally responding to early customers of the Model S during the vehicle’s initial rollout. Guillen appears to be a perfect fit for Tesla’s electric car business, and his promotion could serve as a reassurance for investors regarding Elon Musk being overstretched by his workload and responsibilities in the company.
Wednesday also saw the rather underwhelming IPO of NIO, a highly-anticipated Tesla rival from China. NIO is among the electric car makers that are expected to provide competition to Tesla, to the point where the company’s CEO is fondly dubbed as “The Elon Musk of China.” Among NIO’s first entries into the electric car segment is the ES8, a pure-electric, seven-seater SUV that is seen as a potential rival to the Tesla Model X.
A person familiar with the company’s IPO proceedings informed Reuters that NIO had initially hoped for a valuation of as much as $20 billion. Unfortunately for the company, the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, as well as its ongoing cash burn as it attempted to ramp the ES8’s production, weighed down the electric car maker’s IPO. NIO ultimately priced its shares at $6.26, just above the low end of its $6.25-$8.25 target price range. The company sold $1 billion in shares in the IPO, which still made it the third-largest US listing by a Chinese company this 2018.
Similar to Tesla, NIO incurred a significant net loss during the first half of the year, with the company incurring a net loss of $502.6 million on $6.95 million in revenues in the first six months of 2018. NIO noted that as of the end of August, it had delivered about 1,600 units of the ES8, and it still had another 15,778 unfulfilled reservations for the vehicle.
As of writing, Tesla shares are up 3.3% at $288.66 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.
Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.
It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.
Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.
He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.
Musk replied, basically confirming it:
As usual, Eric is accurate
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 10, 2025
Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.
AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.
It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.
The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.
But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.
On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.
🚨 Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating and $500 PT on Tesla $TSLA stock
Analyst Alexander Potter said FSD is near full autonomy and latest versions showed the largest improvement in disengagements, from 440 miles to 9,200 miles between critical interventions pic.twitter.com/u4WCLfZcA9
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 9, 2025
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.
Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.
Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.
Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.
Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it
With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.
Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla removes Safety Monitors, begins fully autonomous Robotaxi testing
