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Tesla price target: analyst and firm adjustments ahead of Q2 Earnings Call

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has gotten several updates to its price target from various analysts and firms as the Q2 Earnings Call next week takes focus.

Tech analysts and firms alike have made various adjustments to their outlook on the EV maker’s stock over the past several weeks.

Despite what has been a lackluster year for Tesla because of its expected and planned leveling in year-over-year sales growth due to the development of the next-gen platform and Robotaxi, price targets have improved because of the delivery beat reported along with robust and relatively unexpected energy deployment numbers.

What caused Tesla price target increases?

Tesla beat analyst expectations in terms of vehicle deliveries for Q2 by about 6,000 cars, which was significant. However, Tesla’s big surprise was a 132 percent increase in energy storage deployments from Q1 to Q2.

Q1 was a company record at the time, but Q2 more than doubled the amount of battery storage capacity.

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This caused some analysts to adjust their price target breakdowns of Tesla stock and others to start to factor in the energy division more than previously.

Tesla bears officially have their next big threat: Tesla Energy

Tesla $TSLA Price Target Adjustments

Wedbush, Morgan Stanley, Citi, and several other firms adjusted Tesla price targets after the company reported Q2 figures.

Wedbush

Wedbush raised its price target by $25 to $300 from $275, citing a “major turning point” in the bull case.

Dan Ives of Wedbush said:

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“The key for Tesla’s stock is the Street recognizing that Tesla is the most undervalued AI play in the market in our view with a historical Robotaxi Day ahead for Musk and Tesla on August 8th that will lay the yellow brick road to FSD and an autonomous future.”

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley did not increase its price target, but it did adjust the breakdown of how much the energy division factors into its $310 rating.

Previously, energy only made up $36 per share of the $310 price target that Morgan Stanley held. After this quarter, energy accounts for $50 per share.

“It’s no wonder that investors are starting to consider the real possibility that Tesla Energy may be worth more than Tesla Auto,” Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley said in a note.

Citi

Citi boosted its outlook for Tesla from $182 to $274, stating that AI and subsequent automotive developments will need to justify the uptick.

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Citi analysts said the increase in stock price won’t come from “core EV fundamentals” but instead from the execution of its future projects:

“The Q2 delivery beat was also encouraging, which prompts increased estimates and supports Citi’s underlying call for improving EV sentiment this summer. However, the firm believes core EV fundamentals alone are unlikely to support significantly further upside from here in Tesla shares absent new product and AI catalysts.”

Mizuho

Mizuho held its ‘Neutral’ rating but increased its price target on Tesla shares from $180 to $230. It also is not relying on EV fundamentals to see this growth, but instead stating AI, especially Robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid robot, will be the major factors in an increase in valuation.

Analysts at the firm said these catalysts “could be much more difficult” to obtain but could be significant factors for an increase in price.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla “best positioned” for Trump tariffs among automakers: analyst

Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives recently shared his thoughts about Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) amidst the Trump administration’s tariffs. As per Ives, Tesla is best-positioned relative to its rivals when it comes to the ongoing tariff issue.

Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

Best Positioned

During an interview with Yahoo Finance, the segment’s hosts asked about his thoughts on Tesla, especially considering Musk’s work with the Trump administration. Musk has previously stated that the effects of tariffs on Tesla are significant due to parts that are imported from abroad.

“When it comes to the tariff issue, they are actually best positioned relative to the Detroit Big Three and others and obviously foreign automakers. Still impacted, Musk has talked about that, in terms of just auto parts,” Ives stated.

China and Musk

Ives also stated that ultimately, a big factor for Tesla in the coming months may be the Chinese market’s reactions to its tariff war. He also noted that the next few quarters will be pivotal for Tesla considering the brand damage that Elon Musk has incited due to his politics and work with the Trump administration.

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“When it comes to Tesla, I think the worry is where does retaliatory look like in China, in terms of buying domestic. I think that’s something that’s a play. And they have a pivotal six months head, in terms of what everything we see in Austin, autonomous, and the buildout. 

“But the brand issues that Musk self-inflicted is dealing with in terms of demand destruction in Europe and the US. And that’s why this is a key few quarters ahead for Tesla and also for Musk to make, in my opinion, the right decision to take a step back from the administration,” Ives noted.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla negativity “priced into the stock at its current levels:” CFRA analyst

The CFRA analyst has given Tesla a price target of $360 per share.

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Credit: Tesla China

In recent comments to the Schwab Network, CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson stated that a lot of the “negative sentiment towards Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is priced into the stock at its current levels.”

The CFRA analyst has given Tesla a price target of $360 per share.

Q1 A Low Point in Sales

The CFRA analyst stated that Tesla’s auto sales likely bottomed last quarter, as noted in an Insider Monkey report. This was, Nelson noted, due to Q1 typically being the “weakest quarter for automakers.” He also highlighted that all four of Tesla’s vehicle factories across the globe were idled in the first quarter.

While Nelson highlighted the company’s changeover to the new Model Y as a factor in Q1, he also acknowledged the effects of CEO Elon Musk’s politics. The analyst noted that while Tesla lost customers due to Musk’s political opinions, the electric vehicle maker has also gained some new customers in the process.

CFRA’s Optimistic Stance

Nelson also highlighted that Tesla’s battery storage business has been growing steadily over the years, ending its second-best quarter in Q1 2025. The analyst noted that Tesla Energy has higher margins than the company’s electric vehicle business, and Tesla itself has a very strong balance sheet.

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The CFRA analyst also predicted that Tesla could gain market share in the United States because it has less exposure to the Trump administration’s tariffs. Teslas are the most American-made vehicles in the country, so the Trump tariffs’ effects on the company will likely be less notable compared to other automakers that produce their cars abroad.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla average transaction prices (ATP) rise in March 2025: Cox Automotive

Tesla Model Y and Model 3 saw an increase in their average transaction price (ATP) in March 2025.

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Credit: Tesla/X

Data recently released from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book has revealed that electric vehicles such as the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 saw an increase in their average transaction price (ATP) in March 2025.

Cox Automotive’s findings were shared in a press release

March 2025 EV ATPs

As noted by Cox, new electric vehicle prices in March were estimated to be $59,205, a 7% increase year-over-year. In February, new EV prices had an ATP of $57,015. The average transaction price for electric vehicles was 24.7% higher than the overall auto industry ATP of $47,462.

As per Cox, “Compared to the overall industry ATP ($47,462), EV ATPs in March were higher by nearly 25% as the gap between new ICE and new EV grows wider. EV incentives continued to range far above the industry average. In March, the average incentive package for an EV was 13.3% of ATP, down from the revised 14.3% in February.”

Tesla ATPs in Focus

While Tesla saw challenges in the first quarter due to its factories’ changeover to the new Model Y, the company’s ATPs last month were estimated at $54,582, a year-over-year increase of 3.5% and a month-over-month increase of 4.5%. A potential factor in this could be the rollout of the Tesla Model Y Launch Series, a fully loaded, limited-edition variant of the revamped all-electric crossover that costs just under $60,000.

This increase, Cox noted, was evident in Tesla’s two best-selling vehicles, the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover, the best-selling car globally in 2023 and 2024. “ATPs for Tesla’s two core models – Model 3 and Model Y – were higher month over month and year over year in March,” Cox wrote.

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Cox’s Other Findings

Beyond electric vehicles, Cox also estimated that new vehicle ATPs held steady month-over-month and year-over-year in March at $47,462, down slightly from the revised-lower ATP of $47,577 in February. Sales incentives in March were flat compared to February at 7% of ATP, though they are 5% higher than 2024, when incentives were equal to 6.7% of ATP. 

Estimates also suggest that new vehicle sales in March topped 1.59 million units, the best volume month in almost four years. This was likely due to consumers purchasing cars before the Trump administration’s tariffs took effect. As per Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox, all things are pointing to higher vehicle prices this summer. 

“All signs point to higher prices this summer, as existing ‘pre-tariff’ inventory is sold down to be eventually replaced with ‘tariffed’ inventory. How high prices rise for consumers is still very much to be determined, as each automaker will handle the price puzzle differently. Should the White House posture hold, our team is expecting new vehicles directly impacted by the 25% tariff to see price increases in the range of 10-15%,” Keating stated.

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