Investor's Corner
Top 3 questions Tesla institutional investors want answered in the Q1 2021 earnings call
Tesla’s institutional investors have voted on the top three questions they would like the company to answer during the Q1 2021 earnings call. The questions were submitted through investor communications platform Say, a startup that aims to create and develop investor communication tools.
Question 1 – Lithium-ion and Tesla’s 4680 batteries
One question an institutional investor submitted that received the most shares and votes related to Tesla’s 4680 battery cell.
“Proponents of alternative grid storage technologies claim that lithium-ion is unsuited to long-term (e.g., intra-seasonal) storage at scale due to vampire drain. Could 4680 address this limitation? Is the limitation even relevant for changing the energy equation?” asked the institutional investor.
During Tesla Battery Day, Drew Baglino—Senior Vice President of Powertrain and Energy Engineering—noted that the lithium-ion industry was only in its third decade of high volume production. “It has so far to go to achieve similar scale and simplicity,” said Baglino.
Question 2 – Tesla Gigafactory Berlin’s Model 3 production
Another institutional investor asked about any production improvements Tesla may apply to Giga Berlin’s Model 3 line.
“You’ve suggested that between a 5-10x improvement is achievable in automotive production vs. the first Model 3 line on a first-principles physics analysis. Where does Berlin sit relative to that limit?” the institutional investors asked.
Tesla investors may recall the Model 3 “production hell” the company experienced several years ago, which resulted in the construction of a production line housed in a sprung structure, GA4. Since those early days of Model 3 production, Tesla has notably improved the assembly of its more affordable sedan.
Question 3 – Tesla’s Urban Transport Vehicle
The last institutional investor question that Tesla may need to answer relates to Elon Musk’s mention of an urban transport vehicle in his Master Plan Part Deux.
“Master Plan Part Deux talks about an urban transport vehicle that is smaller than a traditional bus with greater areal density achieved by removing the central aisle (like a 21st-century Soviet marshrutka except with everyone seated!) Do you have any update to share on that goal?” asked the institutional investor.
In Master Plan Part Deux, Musk described a high-passenger-density urban transport designed without a center aisle. A fleet manager would operate the urban transport instead of a “bus driver.” Musk predicted that Tesla’s urban transport would minimize traffic congestion.
A few years later, Musk created Boring Company, a tunneling company, to address traffic congestion. The Boring Company’s first operational tunnel, the LVCC Loop in Las Vegas, will welcome its first riders in June. LVCC Loop visitors will ride inside Tesla vehicles through the tunnel. However, an urban transport—like the one Musk described in his Master Plan—might be a better fit for Boring Company.
Tesla will answer questions from retail investors and institutional investors during the Q1 2020 earnings call on Monday, April 26, 2021. Tesla will release an Update Letter after the market closes, and the earnings call will start at 2:30 pm Pacific Time or 5:30 pm Eastern Time.
The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com or reach out to me at maria@teslarati.com.
Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.
He wrote:
“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”
Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.
Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.
He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”
Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.
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Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”
Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
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For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
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