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Tesla’s (TSLA) Q2 results are further evidence that legacy auto is running out of gas

(Credit: @Tobeywankanobi/Twitter)

Published

5 years ago

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The final numbers from Tesla’s intense end of quarter delivery blitz are in, and they were far better than Wall Street’s estimates. The electric car maker delivered over 90,000 vehicles in Q2 2020, in the middle of a pandemic, and at a time when its main vehicle production facility in Fremont, California was shut down for several weeks during the quarter. 

Loup Ventures Managing Partner Gene Munster recently published a note stating that Tesla’s June 2020 deliveries are further proof that the electric car maker has all but backed traditional automakers into a corner. Munster added that over the next two years, other OEMs may very well struggle to gain any measurable ground on Tesla’s dominating EV share in the United States, which stands at 80% today. 

Ultimately, it appears that Tesla’s second quarter deliveries, despite being around 5% less than its Q2 2019 numbers, still represent a widening gap between traditional auto. Tesla’s 5% YoY drop, after all, is significantly less than the dips that were experienced by legacy carmakers this quarter due to the pandemic. 

General Motors, for example, reported a drop of 34%, Fiat Chrysler took a 39% hit, and even Toyota, the Japanese automotive juggernaut, showed a decline of 35% year over year. This shows that at a time like today, where the world is reeling from a pandemic, car buyers may very well be looking towards vehicles that are a step above those that are offered by traditional automakers. Tesla’s electric cars are just that, both in their buying experience and their use. 

With such Q2 results, Munster noted that some concerns about Tesla and its profitability may soon fade away. “Based on the just reported June quarter delivery numbers, we expect the company to report better than expected earnings, potentially near a profit despite the shutdown, and favorable details on continued profitability trends driven by the Shanghai factory and Model Y,” Munster wrote. 

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Amidst Tesla’s rise and strong second quarter deliveries, it is becoming clear that it will be quite challenging for traditional automakers to catch up to Tesla. This is particularly notable since Tesla is now entering the crossover market with the Model Y, which Elon Musk expects will outsell the Model S, Model 3, and Model X combined. Munster stated that as Tesla scales further to meet demand, the company’s price performance gap against other carmakers will widen since legacy auto will likely be producing EVs at sub-scale. 

“If traditional auto releases a car with features and range at parity and sells the car at cost, it will be priced 10-25% higher than a comparable Tesla. This will soften demand and lead to further market share loss. If traditional auto subsidizes vehicles to gain market share they will lose money with limited margin cushion. The more they sell, the more money they lose. Taking it to the logical end, we believe car companies that have been around for 50+ years will eventually (10 years from now) be forced to restructure or go out of business,” Munster wrote. 

Tesla’s goal is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainability. With demand for electric cars seemingly getting proven and highlighted by Tesla’s Q2 results, it appears that a shift is now happening in the auto market. The Loup Ventures Managing Partner, for his part, noted that the shift to electric vehicles is actually just beginning, with EV deliveries likely to see a growth of about 40-50% per year over the next 10 years. 

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla stock surges on Wednesday, but there’s still more room to go

Published

2 days ago

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March 12, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged over 7 percent on Wednesday, canceling out some of the losses it has felt this week.

It has been a less-than-ideal start for Tesla in 2025, as the company has wiped out all of its gains felt from the victorious election campaign of President Donald Trump. The stock is down 34 percent so far this year.

The losses have mostly been felt due to reports of decreased demand due to pushback against CEO Elon Musk and his support of President Trump, as well as investor concern over the CEO’s personal use of time between the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and Tesla itself.

In a note this week from Wedbush, analyst Dan Ives wrote:

“Musk needs to step up as Tesla CEO at this critical juncture. In a nutshell, the word ‘balance’ has been missing with Elon Musk and his ability to run Tesla as CEO….while instead focusing all of his energy and time driving his DOGE initiative within the Trump Administration. Since Trump’s White House 2nd term kicked off in January, we have seen Musk and Trump connected at the hip with Musk essentially living at the White House and Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. There has been little to no sign of Musk at any Tesla factory or manufacturing facility the last two months and perception has become reality for Tesla shares. Trump getting elected President was a huge moment for Musk and Tesla in our view as this will create the fast track for an autonomous federal roadmap…however the DOGE efforts have now intertwined Tesla into this brewing political firestorm.”

Wednesday’s slight bump for Tesla shares is likely related to the support the company received from President Trump yesterday, who purchased a Model S sedan at the White House and pledged to pay for it with a check.

President Donald Trump buys a Tesla at the White House – Here’s which model he chose

The move was one that signaled a buying spree from high-profile Republicans, including Sean Hannity, among others, who announced their support for Musk and Tesla:

Tesla shares closed at $248.09 on Wednesday, up 7.59%.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla bull ARK loads up on over $20M in TSLA shares after stock slide

Published

3 days ago

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March 11, 2025

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla bull ARK Invest loaded up on over $20 million worth of the automaker’s shares on Monday after the company saw its largest slide on the market since late 2020.

Shares dropped over 15 percent on Monday, mostly due to pushback on the stock as CEO Elon Musk heads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). His involvement with the U.S. government directly has sent some investors into a predicament over Musk’s dedication to Tesla.

There are also concerns regarding Q1 deliveries, which will be a big indication of where the year could be headed for Tesla.

The Monday slide was the biggest since late 2020 when shares dropped over 21 percent.

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However, the slide presents a massive buying opportunity for investors, especially those who operate ETFs, like ARK. Long term, ARK believes Tesla shares (NASDAQ: TSLA) will be exponentially more expensive, especially leaning on the thesis that Robotaxi and AI/Optimus will translate to major growth in yet another sector for the company.

ARK bolstered its position on $TSLA in its ARKK Innovation ETF with a purchase of 68,164 shares. Tesla is the largest holding in ARKK with over $531 million in value. Tesla makes up exactly 10 percent of the ARKK ETF.

It also bought another 11,154 shares in its ARKQ Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF.

It’s no secret Tesla shares have taken a substantial hit in 2025, especially as the company’s price on Wall Street exploded following President Trump’s successful election campaign last year.

So far in 2025, Tesla shares are down over 38 percent. They are up nearly 5 percent as of 2:30 p.m. on the East Coast. Even bullish analysts are hoping some focus returns to Tesla on Musk’s part.

Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a note last night following the broad sell off:

“This is a gut check moment for the Tesla bulls (including ourselves) after this massive sell-off in Tesla shares with fears mounting/accelerating. The bears own the Tesla narrative in the near-term as lackluster sales numbers from Europe, China, and the US in January/February along with Musk protests/brand worries have created many concerns.”

He continued:

“While the DOGE/Trump Musk iron clad partnership has created major brand worries for Tesla…..we estimate less than 5% of Tesla sales globally are at risk from these issues despite the global draconian narrative for Musk. Importantly, we expect Musk will better balance his time between DOGE and Tesla/SpaceX over the course of 2025 and some of these distraction issues will fade.”

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk praises Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater for accumulating TSLA stock

Published

4 weeks ago

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February 14, 2025

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

A recent 13-F filing from legendary investor and billionaire Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has revealed that the hedge fund has added over $62 million worth of Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) to its portfolio.

Elon Musk has praised the billionaire’s investment in a post on X.

Bridgewater’s TSLA stake:

  • As per Bridgewater’s 13-F filing, it currently holds 153,589 shares of TSLA, which costs $62,025,382.
  • The firm added the TSLA shares in the fourth quarter.
  • Tesla shares gained momentum after its Q3 2024 earnings call, and it only gained more strength after the election of U.S. President Donald Trump.
  • At the end of 2024, Tesla shares were up 62%, as noted in a MarketWatch report.
  • Tesla stock is still up 88% over 12 months despite a steep drop over the past month.

A vote of confidence: 

  • Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, so the firm’s stake in TSLA could be interpreted as a vote of confidence in the electric vehicle maker.
  • Elon Musk has praised the firm’s investment. In a post on X, Musk noted that Bridgewater’s investment was a “smart move.”
  • Elon Musk has been quite consistent on his idea that Tesla could eventually become the world’s most valuable company. He emphasized this point during the Q4 2024 earnings call.
  • “I see a path. I’m not saying it’s an easy path but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. Not even close. There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined,” Musk said.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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