Connect with us

Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) rallies +4.5% as Wall Street shrugs off Q4 delivery miss

Published

on

While the initial after market reaction to the miss in Q4 2016 production and deliveries was negative, reaction from Wall Street tell a different story as the company’s stock (Nasdaq: TSLA) quickly rallied to a 4.5% gain.

We’ve provided some market reactions from analysts watching the stock.

Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla and said that “with TSLA announcing shipments of ~22.2k cars in 4Q16, we are expecting a better- than-feared trade over the next couple of days. While the company missed its 4Q16 shipment guidance by over 10% for the quarter, we believe expectations had dropped significantly below guidance due to media reports of slow sell-through. We anticipate investors will now shift focus to the Gigafactory ramp, timing of Model 3 production, and the company’s ability to generate cash from operations. We continue to be cautious about potential margin drag given simultaneous Model 3 and Gigafactory ramp plus purchase commitments for solar modules from its Buffalo facility.”

Lou Whiteman of TheStreet.com in a piece titled “Wall Street Still Loves Tesla and This Chart Proves It”  stated that “While the results provided fresh fodder for the bears, they didn’t do enough to crush Wall Street’s long love affair with Elon Musk’s baby. Investors may also be optimistic ahead of a previously-planned analyst tour of the company’s Gigafactory battery facility scheduled for Wednesday.” Additionally he positively stated that “The total deliveries, though a miss, by far surpassed 2015’s total of about 50,000.”  “The company has a history of missing internal deadlines, but simply showing progress towards bringing the Model 3 to market should be enough to keep bulls on board and allow Tesla to return to the capital markets to raise more cash if needed.” 

Advertisement

TheStreet.com has been bearish on Tesla for a long time, and Lou warned that “even if the Model 3 arrives on time, there are still questions about whether the company can turn a profit on the vehicle. Tesla has targeted a base price of $35,000 for the vehicle, but skeptics including Stanphyl Capital managing member and portfolio manager Mark Spiegel estimate it might cost the company upwards of $48,000 per unit to produce the car.” 

Jim Cramer, also of TheStreet.com, said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” that “the market isn’t having a stronger reaction because the company seems to be coated with Teflon, meaning that it can withstand things like a lower-than-expected delivery number.” “It should be called Teflon Motors because I don’t think this will matter. Tesla seems to be “charmed,” and it’s still making a lot of cars, like Jay Leno noted,” Cramer noted. “In particular, Tesla’s sales numbers in China jumped dramatically this past year, which is “important. But regardless, people are not going to react to this news. The analysts aren’t going to change their view on it. I think that’s the important way to look at it. They’re just not going to change. No ‘buy’ to ‘holds.’”, Cramer reiterated.

In a Marketwatch story titled “Here’s why Tesla is Baird’s top stock-market pick for 2017“, analyst Ben Kallo was quoted saying that he”expects the company’s energy business and the launch of the Model 3 electric sedan will exceed expectations.”  He went on saying that “Tesla energy storage business and growth opportunity is not currently reflected in share prices”. Ben named Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) his “top pick for 2017” and reiterated an Outperform rating and price target of $338. He “does not believe the Q4 delivery number (expected by Jan. 3) will be an overhang and recommends buying shares heading into 2017 as they believe the stock will make new highs.

As I predicted on Tuesday, several unrelated reports covered the positive fact that Tesla finally begun producing batteries at the Gigafactory, lead by information coming from Tesla’s invite-only ‘investor event’. Everyone from Reuters to Bloomberg and the WSJ reported this news in their opening pages.

Advertisement

Cadie Thompson reported on Business Insider that Tesla began production of battery cells at its Gigafactory on Wednesday. “The battery cells currently in production will be used for Tesla’s rechargeable home battery, Powerwall 2, as well as its massive commercial battery, Powerpack 2. The electric-car maker said in a statement that it aims to begin production of battery cells for the Model 3, its first mass-market car, sometime in the second quarter.”

Tom Randall of Bloomberg, in an article titled “Tesla Flips the Switch on the Gigafactory” stated that “Musk meets a deadline: Battery-cell production begins at what will soon be the world’s biggest factory—with thousands of additional jobs.”

He goes on stating that “the Gigafactory has been activated. Hidden in the scrubland east of Reno, Nev., where cowboys gamble and wild horses still roam—a diamond-shaped factory of outlandish proportions is emerging from the sweat and promises of Tesla CEO Elon Musk. It’s known as the Gigafactory, and today its first battery cells are rolling off production lines to power the company’s energy storage products and, before long, the Model 3 electric car.”

Tom added that “by 2018, the Gigafactory, which is less than a third complete today, will be staffed by 6,500 full-time Reno-based employees and singlehandedly double the world’s production capacity for lithium-ion batteries, according to a new hiring forecast from Tesla.”

Advertisement

 

Advertisement
Comments

Investor's Corner

Tesla and SpaceX get latest synopsis from Wall Street legend Ron Baron

In a wide-ranging appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box on May 12, legendary investor Ron Baron, founder, CEO, and portfolio manager of Baron Capital, reaffirmed his deep conviction in Elon Musk’s two flagship companies.

Published

on

Ron Baron on Tesla stock
Credit: CNBC

Legendary investor Ron Baron says he will continue buying stock of both Tesla and SpaceX, as he continues his support behind CEO Elon Musk, who he says is a special person and “brilliant.”

In a wide-ranging appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box on May 12, legendary investor Ron Baron, founder, CEO, and portfolio manager of Baron Capital, reaffirmed his deep conviction in Elon Musk’s two flagship companies.

With assets under management approaching $55–56 billion, Baron detailed his firm’s substantial holdings, outlined plans for the anticipated SpaceX IPO, and painted an exceptionally optimistic picture for both Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX, framing them as generational opportunities that will reshape industries and deliver extraordinary long-term returns.

Baron Capital’s position in SpaceX has grown dramatically since the firm began investing around 2017. What started as roughly $1.7 billion has ballooned to more than $15 billion, making it the firm’s largest holding.

Advertisement

Tesla ranks second, valued at approximately $5 billion in the portfolio. Together with stakes in xAI and related Musk-led ventures, these investments account for roughly one-third of Baron Capital’s $60 billion in lifetime profits since 1992. Baron emphasized that the growth stems from Musk’s singular ability to execute ambitious visions—from reusable rockets to global satellite internet and beyond.

The centerpiece of the discussion was SpaceX’s expected initial public offering, targeted for mid-2026 following a confidential S-1 filing. Baron announced plans to purchase an additional $1 billion in shares at the IPO.

He described the company’s trajectory in sweeping terms: “This is going to become the largest company on the planet.”

He highlighted Starlink’s expansion of high-speed internet to every corner of the globe, the revolutionary economics of reusable rockets, and Starship’s potential to enable massive space-based data centers and interplanetary infrastructure.

Baron sees SpaceX not merely as a rocket company but as a platform poised for exponential scaling once it goes public, with post-IPO appreciation potentially reaching 10- to 20- or even 30-times current levels over the next decade or more.

Advertisement

On Tesla, Baron struck an equally enthusiastic note, declaring that “now is Tesla’s moment.” He projected the stock could reach $2,000 to $2,500 per share within 10 years—implying a market capitalization near $8.3 trillion and roughly 5–6 times upside from recent levels. While Tesla remains a major holding, Baron’s optimism centers on its evolution beyond electric vehicles into an AI, robotics, autonomous-driving, and energy platform.

He pointed to robotaxis, Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, Optimus humanoid robots, energy storage, and the vast real-world data advantage from Tesla’s global fleet as catalysts that will fundamentally alter the company’s revenue model and valuation multiples. Baron views these developments as transformative, shifting Tesla from a traditional automaker to a high-margin technology and infrastructure powerhouse.

Throughout the interview, Baron’s admiration for Musk was unmistakable. He has likened the entrepreneur to a modern Leonardo da Vinci for his artistic, multidisciplinary approach to solving humanity’s biggest challenges.

Baron’s personal commitment mirrors this confidence: he has repeatedly stated he does not expect to sell a single share of his own Tesla or SpaceX holdings in his lifetime, positioning himself as the “last one out” after his clients. This stance underscores a philosophy of patient, long-term ownership rather than short-term trading.

Advertisement

Baron’s comments arrive at a time of heightened anticipation around SpaceX’s public debut, which could rank among the largest IPOs in history and potentially value the company at $1.5–2 trillion or more at listing.

For investors, his message is clear: the Musk ecosystem—spanning electric vehicles, autonomy, robotics, satellite communications, and space exploration—represents one of the most compelling secular growth stories of the era. While short-term volatility in tech and EV stocks may persist, Baron sees these as buying opportunities for those who share his multi-decade horizon.

In summarizing his outlook, Baron reinforced that the combination of technological breakthroughs, massive addressable markets, and Musk’s leadership creates asymmetric upside that few other investments can match.

For Baron Capital’s clients and long-term Tesla and SpaceX shareholders alike, the investor’s latest CNBC remarks serve as both validation and a call to remain patient through the inevitable ups and downs. As Baron sees it, the best days for both companies—and the returns they can deliver—are still ahead.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Elon Musk

Trump’s invite for Elon just reshuffled Tesla’s big Signature Delivery Event

Tesla rescheduled its final Model S farewell to May 20 after Musk joined Trump in China.

Published

on

By

Tesla has rescheduled its Model S and Model X Signature Edition delivery event to Wednesday, May 20, 2026, after abruptly calling off the original May 12 celebration. The event will take place at Tesla’s factory at 45500 Fremont Boulevard in Fremont, California, the same location where the Model S first rolled off the line in 2012. Invitees received a follow-up email asking them to reconfirm attendance and download a new QR code ticket, with Tesla noting that all travel and accommodation expenses remain the buyer’s responsibility.

The reason behind the original cancellation came into focus the same day it was announced. President Trump invited Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, and executives from Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Meta to join his trip to China this week for a summit with President Xi Jinping. The agenda covers trade, artificial intelligence, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war, following weeks of escalating friction between Washington and Beijing over AI technology, sanctions, and rare earth exports. Trump wrote on Truth Social, “I am very much looking forward to my trip to China, an amazing Country, with a Leader, President Xi, respected by all.”

Tesla launches 200mph Model S “Gold” Signature in invite-only purchase

The vehicles at the center of all this are the last Model S and Model X units Tesla will ever build. Priced at $159,420 each, the 250 Model S and 100 Model X Signature Edition units come finished in Garnet Red with a one-year no-resale agreement, giving Tesla right of first refusal if the owner decides to sell. As Teslarati reported, the Model S defined Tesla’s early identity as a serious luxury automaker, and the Fremont factory line that built it is now being converted to manufacture Optimus humanoid robots.

Advertisement

Musk’s inclusion in the China delegation drew attention given his very public relationship with Trump, and the invitation signals the two have moved past and past grievances. Trump originally brought Musk on to lead the Department of Government Efficiency following his inauguration, and despite a sharp public dispute in mid-2025, the two have appeared together repeatedly in recent months. A seat on the China trip, the most diplomatically consequential visit of Trump’s current term, puts Musk back at the table on U.S. economic policy at a moment when Tesla’s China revenue remains one of the company’s most important financial pillars.

Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says

Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.

Published

on

Credit: Tesla China

Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors from a fiscal standpoint, at least that is what Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler, a top Wall Street firm covering the company, says.

Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.

Analyst Alexander Potter, in the firm’s latest “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” built a comprehensive framework covering 17 separate product lines.

This granular approach values Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, in-house insurance, Supercharging network, and a standalone robotaxi operation—at approximately $400 per share, without assigning any value to Optimus or related inference-as-a-service opportunities.

Advertisement

“At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” Potter stated in the note. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Tesla shares and a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot-related businesses— a figure the analyst views as potentially conservative.

The updated model incorporates elements often overlooked by other sell-side analysts, such as detailed forecasts for Tesla’s insurance operations, Supercharger revenue, and a distinct valuation for the robotaxi business separate from FSD software licensing. It also accounts for Tesla’s 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time.

Potter acknowledged that his estimates for 2026 and 2027 fall below Wall Street consensus, citing factors like declining deliveries from certain discontinued models and reduced regulatory credit income.

However, he expressed limited concern, noting that traditional vehicle delivery metrics are expected to matter less over time as FSD subscriber growth and robotaxi deployment metrics gain prominence. On Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the humanoid robot program, combined with inference services, “arguably will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” though the firm has not yet produced formal long-term forecasts for these segments.

Advertisement

Elon Musk reveals shocking Tesla Optimus patent detail

Tesla shares have traded near the $400 range in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing investor focus on the company’s autonomous driving progress and expansion into robotics and AI. The Optimus project remains in early development stages, with Tesla aiming to deploy the robots initially for internal factory tasks before broader commercial applications.

This Piper Sandler analysis highlights the growing emphasis among some investors and analysts on Tesla’s long-term technology platform potential beyond its current automotive and energy businesses.

As with any forward-looking valuation, outcomes will depend on execution timelines, technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals for autonomous systems, and market adoption of humanoid robotics—areas that carry significant uncertainty and execution risk.

Advertisement

The note underscores a common theme in Tesla coverage: differing views on how to quantify emerging high-growth opportunities like robotics within the company’s overall enterprise value. Investors are advised to consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence regarding these speculative elements.

Continue Reading